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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Urbanization exacerbates continental- to regional-scale warming

Urbanization is usually ignored when estimating past changes in large-scale climate and for future climate projections since cities historically covered a small fraction of the Earth’s surface. Here, by combining global land surface temperature observations with historical estimates of urban area, we demonstrate that the urban contribution to continental- to regional-scale warming has become non-negligible, especially for rapidly urbanizing regions and countries in Asia. Consequently, expected urban expansion over the next century suggests further increased urban influence on large-scale surface climate in the future (approximately 0.16 K for North America and Europe for high-emission scenario in 2100). Based on these results, also seen for air temperature, we argue that, in line with other forms of land use/land cover change, urbanization should be explicitly included in climate change assessments. This requires incorporation of dynamic urban extent and biophysics in current-generation Earth system models to quantify potential urban feedback on the climate system across scales.

Chakraborty, TC↗
NASA NTRS1985

Continental magnetic anomaly constraints on continental reconstruction

Crustal magnetic anomalies mapped by the MAGSAT satellite for North and South America, Europe, Africa, India, Australia and Antarctica and adjacent marine areas were adjusted to a common elevation of 400 km and differentially reduced to the radial pole of intensity 60,000 nT. These radially polarized anomalies are normalized for differential inclination, declination and intensity effects of the geomagnetic field, so that in principle they directly reflected the geometric and magnetic polarization attributes of sources which include regional petrologic variations of the crust and upper mantle, and crustal thickness and thermal perturbations. Continental anomalies demonstrate remarkably detailed correlation of regional magnetic sources across rifted margins when plotted on a reconstruction of Pangea. Accordingly, they suggest further fundamental constraints on the geologic evolution of the continents and their reconstructions.

Vonfrese, R. R. B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-range transported continental aerosol in the eastern North Atlantic: three multiday event regimes influence cloud condensation nuclei

Abstract. The eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is a region dominated by pristine marine environment and subtropical marine boundary layer clouds. Under unperturbed atmospheric conditions, the regional aerosol regime in the ENA varies seasonally due to different seasonal surface-ocean biogenic emissions, removal processes, and meteorological regimes. However, during periods when the marine boundary layer aerosol in the ENA is impacted by particles transported from continental sources, aerosol properties within the marine boundary layer change significantly, affecting the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Here, we investigate the impact of long-range transported continental aerosol on the regional aerosol regime in the ENA using data collected at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility on Graciosa Island in 2017 during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign. We develop an algorithm that integrates number concentrations of particles with optical particle dry diameter (Dp) between 100 and 1000 nm, single scattering albedo, and black carbon concentration to identify multiday events (with duration >24 consecutive hours) of long-range continental aerosol transport in the ENA. In 2017, we detected nine multiday events of long-range transported particles that correspond to ∼ 7.5 % of the year. For each event, we perform HYSPLIT 10 d backward trajectories analysis, and we evaluate CALIPSO aerosol products to assess, respectively, the origins and compositions of aerosol particles arriving at the ENA site. Subsequently, we group the events into three categories, (1) mixture of dust and marine aerosols, (2) mixture of marine and polluted continental aerosols from industrialized areas, and (3) biomass burning aerosol from North America and Canada, and we evaluate their influence on aerosol population and cloud condensation nuclei in terms of potential activation fraction and concentrations at supersaturation of 0.1 % and 0.2 %. The arrival of plumes dominated by the mixture of dust and marine aerosol in the ENA in the winter caused significant increases in baseline Ntot. Simultaneously, the baseline particle size modes and CCN potential activation fraction remained almost unvaried, while cloud condensation nuclei concentrations increased proportionally to Ntot. Events dominated by a mixture of marine and polluted continental aerosols in spring, fall, and winter led to a statistically significant increase in baseline Ntot, a shift towards larger particular sizes, a higher CCN potential activation fractions, and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations of >170 % and up to 240 % higher than during baseline regime. Finally, the transported aerosol plumes characterized by elevated concentration of biomass burning aerosol from continental wildfires detected in the summertime did not statistically contribute to increase baseline aerosol particle concentrations in the ENA. However, particle diameters were larger than under baseline conditions, and CCN potential activation fractions were >75 % higher. Consequentially, cloud concentration nuclei concentrations increased by ∼ 115 % during the period affected by the biomass burning events. Our results suggest that, through the year, multiday events of long-range continental aerosol transport periodically affect the ENA and represent a significant source of CCN in the marine boundary layer. Based on our analysis, in 2017, the multiday aerosol plume transport dominated by a mixture of dust and marine aerosol, a mixture of marine and polluted continental aerosols, and biomass burning aerosols caused increases in the NCCN baseline regime of, respectively, 6.6 %, 8 %, and 7.4 % at SS 0.1 % (and, respectively, 6.5 %, 8.2 %, and 7.3 % at SS 0.2 %) in the ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Atmospheric water vapor transport: Estimation of continental precipitation recycling and parameterization of a simple climate model

The advective transport of atmospheric water vapor and its role in global hydrology and the water balance of continental regions are discussed and explored. The data set consists of ten years of global wind and humidity observations interpolated onto a regular grid by objective analysis. Atmospheric water vapor fluxes across the boundaries of selected continental regions are displayed graphically. The water vapor flux data are used to investigate the sources of continental precipitation. The total amount of water that precipitates on large continental regions is supplied by two mechanisms: (1) advection from surrounding areas external to the region; and (2) evaporation and transpiration from the land surface recycling of precipitation over the continental area. The degree to which regional precipitation is supplied by recycled moisture is a potentially significant climate feedback mechanism and land surface-atmosphere interaction, which may contribute to the persistence and intensification of droughts. A simplified model of the atmospheric moisture over continents and simultaneous estimates of regional precipitation are employed to estimate, for several large continental regions, the fraction of precipitation that is locally derived. In a separate, but related, study estimates of ocean to land water vapor transport are used to parameterize an existing simple climate model, containing both land and ocean surfaces, that is intended to mimic the dynamics of continental climates.

Brubaker, Kaye L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Chemical Characteristics of Continental Outflow from Asia to the Troposphere Over the Western Pacific Ocean during February - March 1994: Results from PEM-West B

We present here the chemical composition of outflow from the Asian continent to the atmosphere over the western Pacific basin during the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West (PEM-West B) in February-March 1994. Comprehensive measurements of important tropospheric trace gases and aerosol particulate matter were performed from the NASA DC-8 airborne laboratory. Backward 5 day isentropic trajectories were used to partition the outflow from two major source regions- continental north (greater than 20 deg N) and continental south (less than 20 deg N). Air parcels that had not passed over continental areas for the previous 5 days were classified as originating from an aged marine source. The trajectories and the chemistry together indicated that there was extensive rapid outflow of air parcels at altitudes below 5 km, while aged marine air was rarely encountered and only at less than 20 deg N latitude. The outflow at low altitudes had enhancements in common industrial solvent vapors such as C2Cl4, CH3CCl3, and C6H6, intermixed with the combustion emission products C2H2, C2H6, CO, and NO. The mixing ratios of all species were up to tenfold greater in outflow from the continental north compared to the continental south source region, with Pb-210 concentrations reaching 38 fCi (10(exp -15) curies) per standard cubic meter. In the upper troposphere we again observed significant enhancements in combustion-derived species in the 8-10 km altitude range, but water-soluble trace gases and aerosol species were depleted. These observations suggest that ground level emissions were lofted to the upper troposphere by wet convective systems which stripped water-soluble components from these air parcels. There were good correlations between C2H2 and CO and C2H6 (r(sup 2) = 0.70 - 0.97) in these air parcels and much weaker ones between C2H2 and H2O2 or CH3OOH (r(sup 2) = 0.50). These correlations were the strongest in the continental north outflow where combustion inputs appeared to be recent (1 - 2 days old). Ozone and PAN showed general correlation in these same air parcels but not with the combustion products. It thus appears that several source inputs were intermixed in these upper tropospheric air masses, with possible contributions from European or Middle Eastern source regions. In aged marine air mixing ratios of 03 (approximately equals 20 parts per billion by volume) and PAN (less than or equal to 10 parts per trillion by volume) were nearly identical at less than 2 km and 10 - 12 km altitudes due to extensive convective uplifting of marine boundary layer air over the equatorial Pacific even in wintertime. Comparison of the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West A and PEM-West B data sets shows significantly larger mixing ratios of SO2 and H2O2 during PEM-West A. Emissions from eruption of Mount Pinatubo are a likely cause for the former, while suppressed photochemical activity in winter was probably responsible for the latter. This comparison also highlighted the twofold enhancement in C2H2, C2H6, and C3H8 in the continental north outflow during /PEM-West B. Although this could be due to reduced OH oxidation rates of these species in wintertime, we argue that increased source emissions are primarily responsible.

Talbot, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Implications for the evolution of continental crust from Hf isotope systematics of Archean detrital zircons

Results from the fractionation of zircon by sedimentary processes into continental margin sandstone yield information on the preservation of preexisting continental crust in the form of zircon, making it possible to distinguish between the contrasting theories of gradual growth versus constant volume of continental crust over geologic time. In this work, Hf-176/Hf-177 ratios were determined for detrital zircon fractions from 2.0-2.5, 2.6-3.0, and pre-3.0 Gyr old sandstones from the Canadian-Shield, the North-Atlantic, the Wyoming, and the Kaapvaal Cratons. Results pointed to small amounts of continental crust prior to 3.0 Gyr ago and a rapid addition of continental crust between 2.5 and 3.0 Gyr ago, consistent with the gradual growth of continental crust, and giving evidence against no-growth histories.

Stevenson, Ross K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The impact of U.S. continental outflow on ozone and aerosol distributions over the western Atlantic

Aircraft measurements of selected trace gas species, aerosols, and meteorological parameters were performed in the lower troposphere off the U.S. east coast during August and September 1989 as part of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (CITE 3) expedition. In this paper, we examine these data to assess the impact of continental outflow on western Atlantic O3 and small aerosol budgets. Results show that mixed layer (ML) O3 concentrations and small aerosol number densities (Np) were enhanced by factors of 3 and 6, respectively, within air masses of predominantly continental origin compared with clean maritime background air. These enhancements exhibited a marked altitude dependence, declining rapidly above the ML to the point where only slight to moderate differences in O3 and Np, respectively, were notable above 2.4 km. Within continentally influenced ML's, both O3 and Np were correlated with CO, exhibiting linear regression slopes averaging 0.4 ppbv (O3)/ppbv(CO) for O3 and 7.7 (particles/cc)/ppbv(CO) for Np and indicating a primarily anthropogenic origin for the observed enhancement of these species. Comparisons between profiles in continental and background maritime air masses suggest that photochemical production below 1.4-km altitude adds over 10% to western Atlantic tropospheric column O3 abundance in continental outflow regimes. For aerosols, eastward advection of low-level continental air contributes an average net flux of 2.8 metric tons of submicron (accumulation mode) particles per kilometer of shoreline per day to the western Atlantic troposphere.

Anderson, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sulfur and Metal Fertilization of the Lower Continental Crust

Mantle-derived melts and metasomatic fluids are considered to be important in the transport and distribution of trace elements in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle. However, the mechanisms that facilitate sulfur and metal transfer from the upper mantle into the lower continental crust are poorly constrained. This study addresses this knowledge gap by examining a series of sulfide- and hydrous mineral-rich alkaline mafic-ultramafic pipes that intruded the lower continental crust of the Ivrea-Verbano Zone in the Italian Western Alps. The pipes are relatively small (<300 m diameter) and primarily composed of a matrix of subhedral to anhedral amphibole (pargasite), phlogopite and orthopyroxene that enclose sub-centimeter-sized grains of olivine. The 1 to 5 m wide rim portions of the pipes locally contain significant blebby and disseminated Fe-Ni-Cu-PGE sulfide mineralization.Stratigraphic relationships, mineral chemistry, geochemical modeling and phase equilibria suggest that the pipes represent open-ended conduits within a large magmatic plumbing system. The earliest formed pipe rocks were olivine-rich cumulates that reacted with hydrous melts to produce orthopyroxene, amphibole and phlogopite.Sulfides precipitated as immiscible liquid droplets that were retained within a matrix of silicate crystals and scavenged metals from the percolating hydrous melt. New high-precision chemical abrasion TIMS-UPb dating of zircons from one of the pipes indicates that these pipes were emplaced at 249.1+/-0.2 Ma, following partial melting of lithospheric mantle pods that were metasomatized during the Eo-Variscan oceanic to continental subduction (approx. 420-310 Ma). The thermal energy required to generate partial melting of the metasomatized mantle was most likely derived from crustal extension, lithospheric decompression and subsequent asthenospheric rise during the orogenic collapse of the Variscan belt (<300 Ma). Unlike previous models, outcomes from this study suggest a significant temporal gap between the occurrence of mantle metasomatism, subsequent partial melting and emplacement of the pipes.We argue that this multi-stage process is a very effective mechanism to fertilize the commonly dry and refractory lower continental crust in metals and volatiles. During the four-dimensional evolution of the thermo-tectonic architecture of any given terrain, metals and volatiles stored in the lower continental crust may become available as sources for subsequent ore-forming processes, thus enhancing the prospectivity of continental block margins for a wide range of mineral systems.

Marek Locmelis↗
NASA NTRS2020

Cycling phosphorus on the Archean Earth: Part I. Continental weathering and riverine transport of phosphorus

Phosphorus (P) is the key nutrient thought to limit primary productivity on geological timescales. Phosphate levels in Archean marine sediments are low, but quantification of the P cycle and how it changed through a billion years of recorded Archean history remain a challenge, hindering our understanding of the role played by P in biosphere/geosphere co-evolution on the early Earth. Here, we design kinetic and thermodynamic models to quantitatively assess one key component of the early P cycle – continental weathering – by considering the emergence and elevation of continents, as well as the evolution of climate, the atmosphere, and the absence of macroscopic vegetation during the Archean Eon. Our results suggest that the weathering rate of apatite, the major P-hosting mineral in the rocks, was at least five times higher in the Archean Eon than today, attributable to high levels of pCO2,g. Despite this, the weathering flux of P to the oceans was negligible in the early Archean Eon, increasing to a level comparable to or greater than the modern by the end of eon, a consequence of accelerating continental emergence. Furthermore, our thermodynamic calculations indicate high solubilities of primary and secondary P-hosting minerals in the acidic weathering fluids on land, linking to high Archean pCO2,g. Thus, weathering of P was both kinetically and thermodynamically favorable on the Archean Earth, and river water could transport high levels of dissolved P to the oceans, as also supported by the observed P-depletion in our new compilation of Archean paleosols. Lastly, we evaluated the relative rates of physical erosion and chemical weathering of silicates during the Archean Eon. The results suggest that continental weathering on the early and middle Archean Earth might have been transport-limited due to low erosion rates associated with limited subaerial emergence and low plateau elevations; by the late Archean, however, continental weathering would have transited to kinetically-limited state because of continental emergence, increased plateau elevation, and weakening weathering rates. Overall, our weathering calculations together with paleosol evidence indicate an increasing flux of bioavailable P to the oceans through time, associated with late Archean continental emergence, reaching levels comparable to or higher than modern values by the end of the eon. Increased P fluxes could have fueled increasing rates of primary production, including oxygenic photosynthesis, through time, facilitating the irreversible oxidation of the Earth’s atmosphere early in the Proterozoic Eon.

Phosphorus↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Aerosol and Environmental Conditions on Maritime and Continental Deep Convective Systems Using a Bin Microphysical Model

A series of model simulations were conducted to investigate the effects of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) loading and convective available potential energy (CAPE) on tropical maritime and midlatitude continental deep convection. Dynamical downscaling from global aerosol reanalysis was used to represent aerosol fields for the two convective regimes. We describe a control run and multiple sensitivity experiments using a limited-area model, employing spectral-bin cloud microphysics. The CCN loading is perturbed between the target maritime and continental conditions, roughly 40–2,000 cm -3 at 850 hPa and 1% supersaturation. Surface precipitation rates monotonically increase with increasing CCN loading for both the maritime and continental situations, while these monotonic increases are disrupted in the simulations with reduced CAPE. The increase in precipitation is in the form of convective precipitation, at the expense of stratiform precipitation. CCN increases promote increases in supercooled cloud water, in agreement with previous modeling studies. However, in the simulations investigated herein, the changes in supercooled water have different impacts on the cloud microphysics in the maritime and continental simulations. Increased supercooled water contents lead to more hail and less graupel in the continental simulation. For the maritime simulation, enhanced supercooled cloud water contents promote an increase in graupel since little or no hail is produced. This distinction is due to the difference in relative magnitudes and peak altitudes of supercooled water and snow amounts, which is further attributable to moisture and dynamical differences in the two cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Tectonic escape in the evolution of the continental crust

The continental crust originated by processes similar to those operating today and continents consist of material most of which originated long ago in arc-systems that have later been modified, especially at Andean margins and in continental collisions where crustal thickening is common. Collision-related strike-slip motion is a general process in continental evolution. Because buoyant continental (or arc) material generally moves during collision toward a nearby oceanic margin where less buoyant lithosphere crops out, the process of major strike-slip dominated motion toward a 'free-face' is called 'tectonic escape'. Tectonic escape is and has been an element in continental evolution throughout recorded earth-history. It promotes: (1) rifting and the formation of rift-basins with thinning of thickened crust; (2) pervasive strike-slip faulting late in orogenic history which breaks up mountain belts across strike and may juxtapose unrelated sectors in cross-section; (3) localized compressional mountains and related foreland-trough basins.

Burke, K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The effect of thicker oceanic crust in the Archaean on the growth of continental crust through time

Present crustal evolution models fail to account for the generation of the large volume of continental crust in the required time intervals. All Archaean plate tectonic models, whether invoking faster spreading rates, similar to today's spreading rates, or longer ridge lengths, essentially propose that continental crust has grown by island arc accretion due to the subduction of oceanic crust. The petrological differences that characterize the Archaean from later terrains result from the subduction of hotter oceanic crust into a hotter mantle. If the oceanic crust was appreciably thicker in the Archaean, as geothermal models would indicate, this thicker crust is surely going to have an effect on tectonic processes. A more valid approach is to compare the possible styles of convergence of thick oceanic crust with modern convergence zones. The best modern analog occurs where thick continental crust is colliding with thick continental crust. Oceanic crustal collision on the scale of the present-day Himalayan continental collision zone may have been a frequent occurrence in the Archaean, resulting in extensive partial melting of the hydrous underthrust oceanic crust to produce voluminous tonalite melts, leaving a depleted stabilized basic residuum. Present-day island arc accretion may not have been the dominant mechanism for the growth of the early Archaean crust.

Wilks, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Crustal volumes of the continents and of oceanic and continental submarine plateaus

Using global topographic data and the assumption of Airy isostasy, it is estimated that the crustal volume of the continents is 7182 X 10 to the 6th cu km. The crustal volumes of the oceanic and continental submarine plateaus are calculated at 369 X 10 to the 6th cu km and 242 X 10 to the 6th cu km, respectively. The total continental crustal volume is found to be 7581 X 10 to the 6th cu km, 3.2 percent of which is comprised of continental submarine plateaus on the seafloor. An upper bound on the contintental crust addition rate by the accretion of oceanic plateaus is set at 3.7 cu km/yr. Subduction of continental submarine plateaus with the oceanic lithosphere on a 100 Myr time scale yields an upper bound to the continental crustal subtraction rate of 2.4 cu km/yr.

Schubert, G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium

Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

anomalies↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution lithospheric structure of continental China from joint inversion of surface wave and gravity data

The lithospheric structure of continental China has been previously determined by seismic travel time tomography, surface wave tomography, and joint inversion of body wave and surface wave data. However, due to the inherent limitations of seismic data, the lithospheric structure of continental China is still not well resolved in the shallow part and in some regions where the station coverage is relatively sparse. In this study, we aim at improving the lithospheric structure by joint inversion of seismic surface wave data and satellite gravity data to take advantage of the uniform distribution and complementary strength of the gravity data. Here, the empirical relationship between velocity and density is used as a bridge for joint inversion of surface wave and gravity data. The joint inversion shear-wave velocity Vs (density) model, named as USTClitho1.0g, can fit both surface wave and gravity data well. This high-resolution Vs model can better fit the active airgun source seismic arrival times and better delineate some features in continental China, such as the velocity contrast across the north–south gravity lineament (NSGL), the lithosphere thinning in eastern China, the crustal footprint of the Hainan mantle plume, the likely magma chamber beneath volcanos in northeast China, the middle-lower crust low velocity layer beneath the Tibetan plateau, and the tearing of subducted Indian mantle lithosphere. Our joint inversion Vs model can provide a reference model for geosciences in continental China and surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Continental United States may lose 1.8 petagrams of soil organic carbon under climate change by 2100

Abstract Aims High‐resolution information on soils’ vulnerability to climate‐induced soil organic carbon (SOC) loss can enable environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers to develop targeted mitigation strategies. This study aims to estimate baseline and decadal changes in continental US surface SOC stocks under future emission scenarios. Location Continental United States. Time period 2014–2100. Methods We used recent SOC field observations ( n = 6,213 sites), environmental factors ( n = 32), and an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to estimate baseline SOC stocks in surface soils across the continental United States at 100‐m spatial resolution, and decadal changes under the projected climate scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) earth system models (ESMs). Results Baseline SOC projections from ML approaches captured more than 50% of variability in SOC observations, whereas ESMs represented only 6–16% of observed SOC variability. ML estimates showed a mean total loss of 1.8 Pg C from US surface soils under the high‐emission scenario by 2100, whereas ESMs showed no significant change in SOC stocks with wide variation among ESMs. Both ML and ESM predictions agree on the direction of SOC change (net emissions or sequestration) across 46–51% of continental US land area. These differences are attributable to the high‐resolution site‐specific data used in the ML models compared to the relatively coarse grid represented in CMIP6 ESMs. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution estimates of baseline SOC stocks, identification of key environmental controllers, and projection of SOC changes from US land cover types under future climate scenarios suggest the need for high‐resolution simulations of SOC in ESMs to represent the heterogeneity of SOC. We found that the SOC change is sensitive to key soil related factors (e.g. soil drainage and soil order) that have not been historically considered as input parameters in ESMs, because currently more than 95% variability in the SOC of CMIP6 ESMs is controlled by net primary productivity, temperature, and precipitation. Using additional environmental factors to estimate the baseline SOC stocks and predict the future trajectory of SOC change can provide more accurate results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗