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NASA NTRS2023

Ames Contrail Simulation Model: Modeling Aviation Induced Contrails and the Computation of Contrail Radiative Forcing Using Air Traffic Data

NASA is developing traffic flow management strategies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate and improve efficiency of aircraft routes in the presence of limited airport and airspace capacity constraints, which are partly due to convective weather and natural calamities. Development of Strategic Traffic Flow Management (STFM) requires models of aircraft emissions and contrails, and models of their effect on climate. There is extensive literature on the modeling of contrails and the Radiative Forcing (RF) associated with contrails. This report captures the latest NASA developments in this research area and describes the integrated modeling, analysis, and software development to support STFM. Aircraft contrails are long, thin and often linear clouds triggered by aircraft engine exhausts in the high-altitude ice-saturated atmosphere. Contrails, similar to that of natural cirrus clouds, can impact global climate by reflecting shortwave radiation and trapping longwave radiation. Recent studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown that aircraft contrails are estimated to have greater impact on global warming than aircraft CO 2 emissions. The Ames Contrail Simulation Model (ACSM) presented in this report simulates the full life cycle of aircraft contrails, including their formation, dynamic evolution, and dissipation, and calculates the associated RF with actual meteorological and air traffic data. ACSM combines models from previous studies that focus on contrail formation and persistence based on the Schmidt-Appleman theoretical criteria, and it incorporates elements of cloud dynamics, microphysics, and climate modeling found in other surveyed contrail models, while also making adjustment for improved computational efficiency. In addition, ACSM is integrated with NASA's state-of-the-art flight simulation software for rapid assessment of aircraft contrail impacts. Applications include assessments of long-term global climate impact resulting from aviation-induced contrails and the design of optimal contrail-mitigation aircraft operation strategies.

aviation contrails↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploratory Contrail Studies: Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) Contrail Assessment & National Airspace System (NAS) Impacts from Contrail Avoidance

Aviation is projected to become an increasingly large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Condensation trails (contrails) are visible cloud trails of water vapor made from aircraft engine exhaust. One study estimated that persistent contrails have contributed about 57% of total Effective Radiative Forcing from aviation operations. Airspace management can reduce persistent contrails and related climate change impacts. NAS Digital Twin simulation capability and Autoresolver conflict management service can be utilized to investigate persistent contrail formation avoidance. On three of the four days analyzed, TTBW persistent contrail formation length was about 10 percentage points less than Boeing 737-800 (around 3% vs 13%). On average, altitude change maneuvers in simulation reduced persistent contrail formation length by 69.8% for 0.4% increase in fuel burn and 1.2% increase in flight duration.

persistent contrails↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparative Study of Contrail Frequency Indices and GOES-16 Contrail Data Set

Contrail formations have been shown to contribute to the greenhouse effect: they are practically transparent to incoming solar radiation and do little to reflect heat away from Earth but are highly effective at trapping heat within Earth’s atmosphere. To understand the impact contrails have on climate change, contrail frequency indices (CFIs) can be used as a method to quantify aircraft-induced persistent contrails. These indices are capable of tracking long-term contrail formation and identify regions of airspace with the highest contrail formation rates. In this aper, an algorithm is proposed which is capable of using NASA Sherlock and Global Forecast System (GFS) datasets and computing CFIs over large geographic regions and long temporal intervals using NASA Ames’ High-End Computing Capability (HECC) supercomputing system. CFIs are computed using nowcast weather data and previously flown flight tracks. This paper calculated the CFIs of all twenty Air Route Traffic Control Centers in the National Airspace System on October 28th, 2019 and compared the distribution of non-zero CFIs with observed contrail data collected from GOES-16 Satellite data in order to assess the accuracy of the CFI system as a contrail prediction model. It was ultimately determined that the computed CFIs were broadly distributed in the same way as the GOES-16 contrail data and that the individual CFIs computed at the latitude/longitude points at which GOES-16 contrail masks were available had high precision and recall (at 0.75 and 0.86 respectively). While these validation results bode well for the accuracy of the CFI method, the number of provided GOES-16 masks was quite small. Future work should aim to increase the size of the GOES-16 dataset in order to perform a more comprehensive comparison between these two datasets.

Contrails↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparative Study of Contrail Frequency Indices and GOES-16 Contrail Data Set

Contrail formations have been shown to contribute to the greenhouse effect: they are practically transparent to incoming solar radiation and do little to reflect heat away from Earth but are highly effective at trapping heat within Earth’s atmosphere. To understand the impact contrails have on climate change, contrail frequency indices (CFIs) can be used as a method to quantify aircraft-induced persistent contrails. These indices are capable of tracking long-term contrail formation and identify regions of airspace with the highest contrail formation rates. In this aper, an algorithm is proposed which is capable of using NASA Sherlock and Global Forecast System (GFS) datasets and computing CFIs over large geographic regions and long temporal intervals using NASA Ames’ High-End Computing Capability (HECC) supercomputing system. CFIs are computed using nowcast weather data and previously flown flight tracks. This paper calculated the CFIs of all twenty Air Route Traffic Control Centers in the National Airspace System on October 28th, 2019 and compared the distribution of non-zero CFIs with observed contrail data collected from GOES-16 Satellite data in order to assess the accuracy of the CFI system as a contrail prediction model. It was ultimately determined that the computed CFIs were broadly distributed in the same way as the GOES-16 contrail data and that the individual CFIs computed at the latitude/longitude points at which GOES-16 contrail masks were available had high precision and recall (at 0.75 and 0.86 respectively). While these validation results bode well for the accuracy of the CFI method, the number of provided GOES-16 masks was quite small. Future work should aim to increase the size of the GOES-16 dataset in order to perform a more comprehensive comparison between these two datasets.

Contrails↗
NASA NTRS2011

Towards a Model Climatology of Relative Humidity in the Upper Troposphere for Estimation of Contrail and Contrail-Induced Cirrus

The formation of contrails and contrail cirrus is very sensitive to the relative humidity of the upper troposphere. To reduce uncertainty in an estimate of the radiative impact of aviation-induced cirrus, a model must therefore be able to reproduce the observed background moisture fields with reasonable and quantifiable fidelity. Here we present an upper tropospheric moisture climatology from a 26-year ensemble of simulations using the GEOS CCM. We compare this free-running model's moisture fields to those obtained from the MLS and AIRS satellite instruments, our most comprehensive observational databases for upper tropospheric water vapor. Published comparisons have shown a substantial wet bias in GEOS-5 assimilated fields with respect to MLS water vapor and ice water content. This tendency is clear as well in the GEOS CCM simulations. The GEOS-5 moist physics in the GEOS CCM uses a saturation adjustment that prevents supersaturation, which is unrealistic when compared to in situ moisture observations from MOZAIC aircraft and balloon sondes as we will show. Further, the large-scale satellite datasets also consistently underestimate super-saturation when compared to the in-situ observations. We place these results in the context of estimates of contrail and contrail cirrus frequency.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Contrail Reduction Strategies Based on Aircraft Flight Distances

This paper evaluates a set of contrail reduction strategies based on the flight range of aircraft as contrail reduction strategies have different impacts on aircraft depending on how they plan to fly. In general, aircraft with longer flight distances cruise at the altitudes where contrails are more likely to form. The concept of the contrail frequency index is used to quantify contrail impacts. The strategy for reducing the persistent contrail formation is to minimize the contrail frequency index by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude. A user-defined factor is used to trade off between contrail reduction and extra CO2 emissions. A higher value of tradeoff factor results in more contrail reduction and extra CO2 emissions. Results show that contrail reduction strategies using various tradeo factors behave differently from short-range flights to long-range ights. Analysis shows that short-distance flights (less than 500 miles) are the most frequent flights but contribute least to contrail reduction. Therefore these aircraft have the lowest priority when applying contrail reduction strategies. Medium-distance flights (500 to 1000 miles) have a higher priority if the goal is to achieve maximum contrail reduction in total; long-distance flights (1000 to 1500 miles) have a higher priority if the goal is to achieve maximum contrail reduction per flight. The characteristics of transcontinental flights (greater than 1500 miles) vary with different weather days so the priority of applying contrail reduction strategies to the group needs to be evaluated based on the locations of the contrail areas during any given day. For the days tested, medium-distance ights contribute up to 42.6% of the reduction among the groups during a day. The contrail frequency index per 1,000 miles for medium-distance, long-distance, and transcontinental flights can be reduced by an average of 75%. The results provide a starting point for developing operational policies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate based on aircraft flight distances.

Chen, Neil Y.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Properties of Linear Contrails Detected in 2012 Northern Hemisphere MODIS Imagery

Observation of linear contrail cirrus coverage and retrieval of their optical properties are valuable data for validating atmospheric climate models that represent contrail formation explicitly. These data can reduce our uncertainty of the regional effects of contrail-generated cirrus on global radiative forcing, and thus improve our estimation of the impact of commercial aviation on climate change. We use an automated contrail detection algorithm (CDA) to determine the coverage of linear persistent contrails over the Northern Hemisphere during 2012. The contrail detection algorithm is a modified form of the Mannstein et al. (1999) method, and uses several channels from thermal infrared MODIS data to reduce the occurrence of false positive detections. A set of contrail masks of varying sensitivity is produced to define the potential range of uncertainty in contrail coverage estimated by the CDA. Global aircraft emissions waypoint data provided by FAA allow comparison of detected contrails with commercial aircraft flight tracks. A pixel-level product based on the advected flight tracks defined by the waypoint data and U-V wind component profiles from the NASA GMAO GEOS-4 reanalysis has been developed to assign a confidence of contrail detection for the contrail mask. To account for possible contrail cirrus missed by the CDA, a post-processing method based on the assumption that pixels adjacent to detected linear contrails will have radiative signatures similar to those of the detected contrails is applied to the Northern Hemisphere data. Results from several months of MODIS observations during 2012 will be presented, representing a near-global climatology of contrail coverage. Linear contrail coverage will be compared with coverage estimates determined previously from 2006 MODIS data.

Duda, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Changes in Cirrus Cloudiness and their Relationship to Contrails

Condensation trails, or contrails, formed in the wake of high-altitude aircraft have long been suspected of causing the formation of additional cirrus cloud cover. More cirrus is possible because 10 - 20% of the atmosphere at typical commercial flight altitudes is clear but ice-saturated. Since they can affect the radiation budget like natural cirrus clouds of equivalent optical depth and microphysical properties, contrail -generated cirrus clouds are another potential source of anthropogenic influence on climate. Initial estimates of contrail radiative forcing (CRF) were based on linear contrail coverage and optical depths derived from a limited number of satellite observations. Assuming that such estimates are accurate, they can be considered as the minimum possible CRF because contrails often develop into cirrus clouds unrecognizable as contrails. These anthropogenic cirrus are not likely to be identified as contrails from satellites and would, therefore, not contribute to estimates of contrail coverage. The mean lifetime and coverage of spreading contrails relative to linear contrails are needed to fully assess the climatic effect of contrails, but are difficult to measure directly. However, the maximum possible impact can be estimated using the relative trends in cirrus coverage over regions with and without air traffic. In this paper, the upper bound of CRF is derived by first computing the change in cirrus coverage over areas with heavy air traffic relative to that over the remainder of the globe assuming that the difference between the two trends is due solely to contrails. This difference is normalized to the corresponding linear contrail coverage for the same regions to obtain an average spreading factor. The maximum contrail-cirrus coverage, estimated as the product of the spreading factor and the linear contrail coverage, is then used in the radiative model to estimate the maximum potential CRF for current air traffic.

Minnis, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1998

Automatic Contrail Detection and Segmentation

Automatic contrail detection is of major importance in the study of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Due to the large volume of satellite imagery, selecting contrail images for study by hand is impractical and highly subject to human error. It is far better to have a system in place that will automatically evaluate an image to determine 1) whether it contains contrails and 2) where the contrails are located. Preliminary studies indicate that it is possible to automatically detect and locate contrails in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery with a high degree of confidence. Once contrails have been identified and localized in a satellite image, it is useful to segment the image into contrail versus noncontrail pixels. The ability to partition image pixels makes it possible to determine the optical properties of contrails, including optical thickness and particle size. In this paper, we describe a new technique for segmenting satellite images containing contrails. This method has good potential for creating a contrail climatology in an automated fashion. The majority of contrails are detected, rejecting clutter in the image, even cirrus streaks. Long, thin contrails are most easily detected. However, some contrails may be missed because they are curved, diffused over a large area, or present in short segments. Contrails average 2-3 km in width for the cases studied.

Weiss, John M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of host climate model on contrail cirrus effective radiative forcing estimates

Estimates of aviation effective radiative forcing (ERF) indicate that contrail cirrus is currently its largest contributor, although with a substantial associated uncertainty of ∼ 70 %. Here, we implement the contrail parameterisation developed for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM), allowing us to compare, for the first time, the impact of key features of the host climate model on contrail cirrus ERF. We find that differences in background humidity between the models result in the UM-simulated contrail fractions being 2 to 3 times larger than in CAM. Additionally, the models show contrasting responses in overall global cloud fraction, with contrails increasing the total cloud fraction in the UM and decreasing it in CAM. Differences in the complexity of the cloud microphysics schemes lead to significant differences in simulated changes to cloud ice water content due to aviation. After compensating for the unrealistically low contrail optical depth in the UM, we estimate the 2018 contrail cirrus ERF to be 40.8 mW m−2 in the UM, compared to 60.1 mW m−2 in CAM. These values highlight the substantial uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF due to differences in microphysics and radiation schemes between the two models. We also find a factor-of-8 uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF due to existing uncertainty in contrail cirrus optical depth. Future research should focus on better representing microphysical and radiative contrail characteristics in climate models and on improved observational constraints.

Zhang, Weiyu [University of Leeds (United Kingdom)↗
NASA NTRS2010

Fuel Efficient Strategies for Reducing Contrail Formations in United States Air Space

This paper describes a class of strategies for reducing persistent contrail formation in the United States airspace. The primary objective is to minimize potential contrail formation regions by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude in a fuel-efficient way. The results show that the contrail formations can be reduced significantly without extra fuel consumption and without adversely affecting congestion in the airspace. The contrail formations can be further reduced by using extra fuel. For the day tested, the maximal reduction strategy has a 53% contrail reduction rate. The most fuel-efficient strategy has an 8% reduction rate with 2.86% less fuel-burnt compared to the maximal reduction strategy. Using a cost function which penalizes extra fuel consumed while maximizing the amount of contrail reduction provides a flexible way to trade off between contrail reduction and fuel consumption. It can achieve a 35% contrail reduction rate with only 0.23% extra fuel consumption. The proposed fuel-efficient contrail reduction strategy provides a solution to reduce aviation-induced environmental impact on a daily basis.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Contrails Avoidance in the Presence of Winds

There are indications that persistent contrails can lead to adverse climate change, although the complete effect on climate forcing is still uncertain. A flight trajectory optimization algorithm with fuel and contrails models, which develops alternative flight paths, provides policy makers the necessary data to make tradeoffs between persistent contrails mitigation and aircraft fuel consumption. This study develops an algorithm that calculates wind-optimal trajectories for cruising aircraft while avoiding the regions of airspace prone to persistent contrails formation. The optimal trajectories are developed by solving a non-linear optimal control problem with path constraints. The regions of airspace favorable to persistent contrails formation are modeled as penalty areas that aircraft should avoid and are adjustable. The tradeoff between persistent contrails formation and additional fuel consumption is investigated, with and without altitude optimization, for 12 city-pairs in the continental United States. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a two percent increase in total fuel consumption can reduce the total travel times through contrail regions by more than six times. Allowing further increase in fuel consumption does not seem to result in proportionate decrease in contrail travel times.

Ng, Hok K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Contrail Reduction Strategies Based on Environmental and Operational Costs

This paper evaluates a set of contrail reduction strategies based on environmental and operational costs. A linear climate model was first used to convert climate effects of carbon dioxide emissions and aircraft contrails to changes in Absolute Global Temperature Potential, a metric that measures the mean surface temperature change due to aircraft emissions and persistent contrail formations. The concept of social cost of carbon and the carbon auction price from recent California's cap-and-trade system were then used to relate the carbon dioxide emissions and contrail formations to an environmental cost index. The strategy for contrail reduction is based on minimizing contrail formations by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude. The strategy uses a user-defined factor to trade off between contrail reduction and additional fuel burn and carbon dioxide emissions. A higher value of tradeoff factor results in more contrail reduction but also more fuel burn and carbon emissions. The strategy is considered favorable when the net environmental cost benefit exceeds the operational cost. The results show how the net environmental benefit varies with different decision-making time-horizon and different carbon cost. The cost models provide a guidance to select the trade-off factor that will result in the most net environmental benefit.

social cost of carbon↗
NASA NTRS1997

Surface-Based Observations of Contrail Occurrence Over the US, Apr. 1993 to Apr. 1994

Surface observers stationed at 19 U.S. Air Force Bases and Army Air Stations recorded the daytime occurrence of contrails and cloud fraction on an hourly basis for the period April 1993 through April 1994. Each observation uses one of four main categories to report contrails as unobserved, non-persistent, persistent, and indeterminate. Additional classification includes the co-occurrence of cirrus with each report. The data cover much of the continental U.S. including locations near major commercial air routes. The mean annual frequency of occurrence in unobstructed viewing conditions is 13 percent for these sites. Contrail occurrence varied substantially with location and season. Most contrails occurred during the winter months and least during the summer with a pronounced minimum during July. Although nocturnal observations are not available, it appears that the contrails have a diurnal variation that peaks during mid morning over most areas. Contrails were most often observed in areas near major commercial air corridors and least often over areas far removed from the heaviest air traffic. A significant correlation exists between mean contrail frequency and aircraft fuel usage above 7 km suggesting predictive potential for assessing future contrail effects on climate.

Minnis, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1994

Radiative Effect of Sub-Sonic Jet Contrails

The study of jet contrails is of major importance to a wide range of disciplines from military planners to climate researchers. Contrails, which form at the wake of jet aircraft, act as tracers, which serve as potential intelligence to military planners. In terms of atmospheric effects, climate researchers are interested in the potential radiative effects of jet aircraft emissions. Since jet contrails are sunset of thin cirrus clouds, they also have regional impacts on climate. The major goal of this proposed effort was to use Satellite Remote Sensing to detect jet contrails in an automated fashion. The tasks accomplished for this project are: 1. Using AVHRR data, a new technique was developed to detect jet contrails. The technique and results were published in a paper recently. 2. A global survey of jet contrails was also conducted using AVHRR data. This work will also be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. 3. Work is in progress to estimate the optical thickness of these jet contrails and the size of ice particles in these clouds. 4. Another key issue to be addressed is the differences between thin cirrus and jet contrails.

Welch, Ronald M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Relating Satellite-Based Contrail Detection to NWA Output

Contrail-induced cloud cover has been shown to be a significant factor in regional climate change over the United States of America. As air traffic increases, the potential for globally significant impacts also rises. To better understand and predict these potential climatic effects, it is necessary to develop models that can accurately represent contrail properties based on ambient atmospheric variables including temperature, relative humidity and winds. Several high-resolution numerical weather analyses (NWA) including the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) can provide the temperature, humidity and wind information necessary to diagnose contrail formation. One outstanding problem that must be addressed to achieve a realistic simulation of contrails is the large uncertainties in upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) in numerical weather analyses. Current numerical weather analyses tend to underestimate UTH due to large dry biases in the balloon soundings used to construct the analyses. To evaluate each of the models, we match several months of contrail properties derived from satellite and surface observations to the NWA-derived humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stability. The relationships between several contrail properties (including optical depth and areal contrail coverage) and the NWA-derived statistics will be analyzed to determine under which atmospheric conditions widespread contrail outbreaks are favored.

Duda, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Impact of COVID-19-related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

The radiative effects of the large-scale air traffic slowdown during Apr and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area-averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings during the slowdown were 34 and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave contrail radiative forcing were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic density data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.

contrails↗
NASA NTRS1999

Radiative Forcing by Contrails

A parametric study of the instantaneous radiative impact of contrails is presented using three different radiative transfer models for a series of model atmospheres and cloud parameters. Contrails are treated as geometrically and optically thin plane parallel homogeneous cirrus layers in a static atmospheres The ice water content is varied as a function of ambient temperature. The model atmospheres include tropical, mid-latitude, and subarctic summer and winter atmospheres Optically thin contrails cause a positive net forcing at top of the atmosphere. At the surface the radiative forcing is negative during daytime. The forcing increases with the optical depth and the amount of contrail cover. At the top of the atmosphere a mean contrail cover of 0.1% with average optical depth of 0.2 to 0.5 causes about 0.01 to 0.03 W/m(exp 2)a daily mean instantaneous radiative forcing. Contrails cool the surface during the day and heat the surface during the night, and hence reduce the daily temperature amplitude The net effect depends strongly on the daily variation of contrail cloud cover. The indirect radiative forcing due to particle changes in natural cirrus clouds may be of the same magnitude as the direct one due to additional cover.

Meerkoetter, R.↗