A Multiple-Model Convection-Permitting Ensemble Examination of the Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclones: Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Edouard (2014)
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Christopher Melhauser↗
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Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS
New precipitation (P) datasets are released regularly, following innovations in weather forecasting models, satellite retrieval methods, and multi-source merging techniques. Using the conterminous US as a case study, we evaluated the performance of 26 gridded (sub-)daily P datasets to obtain insight into the merit of these innovations. The evaluation was performed at a daily timescale for the period 2008–2017 using the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), a performance metric combining correlation, bias, and variability. As a reference, we used the high-resolution (4 km) Stage-IV gauge-radar P dataset. Among the three KGE components, the P datasets performed worst overall in terms of correlation (related to event identification). In terms of improving KGE scores for these datasets, improved P totals (affecting the bias score) and improved distribution of P intensity (affecting the variability score) are of secondary importance. Among the 11 gauge-corrected P datasets, the best overall performance was obtained by MSWEP V2.2, underscoring the importance of applying daily gauge corrections and accounting for gauge reporting times. Several uncorrected P datasets outperformed gauge-corrected ones. Among the 15 uncorrected P datasets, the best performance was obtained by the ERA5-HRES fourth-generation reanalysis, reflecting the significant advances in earth system modeling during the last decade. The (re)analyses generally performed better in winter than in summer, while the opposite was the case for the satellite-based datasets. IMERGHH V05 performed substantially better than TMPA-3B42RT V7, attributable to the many improvements implemented in the IMERG satellite P retrieval algorithm. IMERGHH V05 outperformed ERA5-HRES in regions dominated by convective storms, while the opposite was observed in regions of complex terrain. The ERA5-EDA ensemble average exhibited higher correlations than the ERA5-HRES deterministic run, highlighting the value of ensemble modeling. The WRF regional convection-permitting climate model showed considerably more accurate P totals over the mountainous west and performed best among the uncorrected datasets in terms of variability, suggesting there is merit in using high-resolution models to obtain climatological P statistics. Our findings provide some guidance to choose the most suitable P dataset for a particular application.
Hylke E. Beck↗
Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area
Current lightning predictions are uncertain because they rely on empirical diagnostic relationships and often use coarse-scale climate scenario simulations in which deep convection is parameterized. Previous studies demonstrated that simulations with convection permitting resolutions improve lightning predictions compared to coarser-grid simulations using convection parameterizations for different geographical locations but not over the boreal zone. In this study, lightning simulations with the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model are evaluated over a domain including the Great Slave Lake in Canada, for six lightning seasons. The simulations are performed at convection parameterized (9 km) and convection-permitting (3 km) resolution using the Goddard 4ICE and the Thompson microphysics schemes. Four lightning indices are evaluated against observations from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, in terms of spatiotemporal frequency distribution, spatial pattern, daily climatology, and an event-based overall skill assessment. The Thompson scheme is, regardless of the spatial resolution, superior to the Goddard 4ICE scheme in predicting daily climatology but worse in predicting the spatial patterns of lightning occurrence. Results indicate that lightning estimation benefits from modeling at convection-permitting resolution, in particular for the ice based lightning indices. In contrast, the product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate proved to be the most robust index that was largely invariant to varying spatial resolution. Finally, this study reveals issues of the models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of lightning well, which might be related to an insufficient representation of land surface heterogeneity, including peatlands, in the study area.
Jonas Mortelmans↗
Simultaneous Radar and Satellite Data Storm-Scale Assimilation Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach for 24 May 2011
Assimilating high-resolution radar reflectivity and radial velocity into convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models has proven to be an important tool for improving forecast skill of convection. The use of satellite data for the application is much less well understood, only recently receiving significant attention. Since both radar and satellite data provide independent information, combing these two sources of data in a robust manner potentially represents the future of high-resolution data assimilation. This research combines Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 13 (GOES-13) cloud water path (CWP) retrievals with Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) reflectivity and radial velocity to examine the impacts of assimilating each for a severe weather event occurring in Oklahoma on 24 May 2011. Data are assimilated into a 3-km model using an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter approach with 36 members over a 2-h assimilation window between 1800 and 2000 UTC. Forecasts are then generated for 90 min at 5-min intervals starting at 1930 and 2000 UTC. Results show that both satellite and radar data are able to initiate convection, but that assimilating both spins up a storm much faster. Assimilating CWP also performs well at suppressing spurious precipitation and cloud cover in the model as well as capturing the anvil characteristics of developed storms. Radar data are most effective at resolving the 3D characteristics of the core convection. Assimilating both satellite and radar data generally resulted in the best model analysis and most skillful forecast for this event.
Jones, Thomas A.↗
Vertical solidification of dendritic binary alloys
Three numerical techniques are employed to analyze the influence of thermosolutal convection on defect formation in directionally solidified (DS) alloys. The finite-element models are based on the Boussinesq approximation and include the plane-front model and two plane-front models incorporating special dendritic regions. In the second model the dendritic region has a time-independent volume fraction of liquid, and in the last model the dendritic region evolves as local conditions dictate. The finite-element models permit the description of nonlinear thermosolutal convection by treating the dendritic regions as porous media with variable porosities. The models are applied to lead-tin alloys including DS alloys, and severe segregation phenomena such as freckles and channels are found to develop in the DS alloys. The present calculations and the permeability functions selected are shown to predict behavior in the dendritic regions that qualitatively matches that observed experimentally.
Heinrich, J. C.↗
Episodic large-scale overturn of two-layer mantles in terrestrial planets
It is usually assumed that the upper and lower mantles of a chemically stratified planet are arranged so that the upper mantle is chemically less dense and that these layers convect separately. Possible buoyant overturn of the two mantle layers has not previously been considered. Such overturn would initially occur when thermal expansion of a chemically denser lower mantle more than offsets the compositional density difference between the layers, reversing the relative sense of buoyancy. Once overturn has occurred, the chemically denser, but thermally less dense upper mantle cools more efficiently than the lower mantle and loses its relative thermal buoyancy. If mixing is slow, this leads to repeated overturns that result in thermal histories that differ radically from those obtained without this large-scale overturning. Thermal evolution calculations, for a two-layer mantle over a wide range of parameter space, show that large-scale overturn occurs cyclically with a well-defined period. This period depends most strongly on the viscosity of the lower mantle, to which it is approximately proportional. Geologically interesting overturn periods on the order of 10(exp 7) to 10(exp 9) years result for lower mantle viscosities of 10(exp 22) to 10(exp 24) Pa s for the Earth and Venus, and 10(exp 21) to 10(exp 23) Pa s for Mars. The mantles of Mercury and the Moon are too thin to permit two-layer convection, and therefore the model is not appropriate for them. Overturn cannot occur on Earth or Venus if the compositional density difference between the layers exceeds about 4%, or on Mars if it exceeds about 2%. Large-scale mantle overturn could have significant tectonic consequences such as the initiation of a new plate tectonic cycle on the Earth or a major resurfacing event on Mars or Venus. Such episodic events in the evolution of a planet are not easily explained by whole mantle thermal convection.
Herrick, David L.↗
Local-area simulations of rotating compressible convection and associated mean flows
The dynamics of compressible convection within a curved local segment of a rotating spherical shell are considered in relation to the turbulent redistribution of angular momentum within the solar convection zone. Current supercomputers permit fully turbulent flows to be considered within the restricted geometry of local area models. By considering motions in a curvilinear geometry in which the Coriolos parameters vary with latitude, Rossby waves which couple with the turbulent convection are thought of as being possible. Simulations of rotating convection are presented in such a curved local segment of a spherical shell using a newly developed, sixth-order accurate code based on compact finite differences.
Hurlburt, Neal E.↗
A numerical study of global axisymmetric states and their stability to quasi-geostrophic disturbances
A steady, axisymmetric model of the general circulation is developed as a basis for climate stability studies. The model includes the effects of heating, rotation, and internal friction, but neglects topography. It is assumed that the axisymmetric flow may be modeled by making the Boussinesq and deep convection approximations. The hydrostatic assumption is not made, thus permitting the advective terms to be included in the vertical equation of motion. The initial set of five primitive equations is reduced to three equations in terms of the zonal velocity, meridional streamfunction, and the potential temperature perturbation. The application of the Boussinesq, deep convection, and quasi-geostrophic assumptions limits the ranges of the heating and rotation rates. For values not too far from typical atmospheric values, the model produces a stability boundary separating Hadley from Rossby flow. The boundary is characterized by a particular value of vertical wind shear, which suggests that baroclinic instability is the primary mechanism for the loss of stability. The initial growth rates are largest for longitudinal waves 4-7, also in agreement with studies of baroclinic instability.
Henderson, H. W.↗
Numerical Investigation of Film Coefficient Approximation for Chemically Reacting Boundary-Layer Flows
Aerothermal analysis of spacecraft planetary entry is heavily dependent on heritage engineering models. The film coefficient heat transfer model examined in this paper estimates the convective heating to the vehicle for a laminar, dissociated, chemically reacting boundary layer for an Earth atmosphere. This model requires information about the vehicle and flowfield for a given trajectory point and estimates a proportional relationship between enthalpy potential and convective heat flux. In practice it is the aerothermal engineer who must decide which assumptions are appropriate for his/her application. This work looks at numerous CFD simulations for an arbitrary, axisymmetric flight vehicle to analyze the relative importance of both the mass and energy constraints imposed at the wall boundary, as well as the effect of various diffusion models. Within the subset of tested energy boundary conditions, it is found that the most desirable energy boundary condition is the radiative equilibrium boundary condition, which permits conservative estimates of convective heat flux, but also generates flowfield-dependent spatial thermal distributions along the surface. Other key findings are presented in an effort to make the film coefficient engineering model readily available to design engineers across industry.
Film coefficient↗
A new convective parameterization scheme for global models
A convective adjustment scheme is presented for parameterization of the vertical temperature and moisture structure for large-scale numerical weather models. The temperature and moisture structure is adjusted toward observed quasi-equilibrium structures to maintain a realistic vertical temperature and moisture structure in grid-scale global models during convection. Two reference thermodynamic structures are modeled analytically to account for shallow and deep convection. The thermodynamic structure obtained is permitted to change as a function of large-scale advective terms, radiation and surface fluxes. The reference profiles are applied when an energy integral provides a description of the shallow or deep convective processes occurring. Comparisons with GATE, BOMEX and ATEX data and a 10 day forecast for weather over the tropical ocean illustrate the climate and precipitation forecast accuracy improvements available with the adjustment scheme relative to standard parameterization schemes.
Miller, M. J.↗
A System for Measurement of Convection Aboard Space Station
A simple device for direct measurement of buoyancy driven fluid flows in a low-gravity environment is proposed. A system connecting spacecraft accelerometers data and results of thermal convection in enclosure measurements and numerical simulations is developed. This system will permit also to evaluate the low frequency microacceleration component. The goal of the paper is to present objectives and current results of ground-based experimental and numerical modeling of this convection detector.
Bogatyrev, Gennady P.↗
Combined Microwave and Sferics Measurements as a Continuous Proxy for Latent Heating in Mesoscale Model Predictions
Planar rainfall distributions were retrieved from data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometers. Lightning generates Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio noise pulses called sferics. Those pulses propagate over large distances so that they can be continuously monitored with a network of ground based radio receivers. An empirical relationship between the sferics rate and the convective rainfall permitted maps of convective latent heating profiles to be derived continuously from the sferics distributions. Those inferred latent heating rates were assimilated into the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that depicted an intense winter cyclone that passed over Florida on 2 February 1998. When compared to a 14 hour MM5 rainfall forecast using conventional data, the use of lightning data improved the forecast.
Chang, D.-E.↗
Combined Microwave and Sferics Measurements as a Continuous Proxy for Latent Heating in Mesoscale Model Predictions
Planar rainfall distributions were retrieved from data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) radiometers. Lightning generates Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio noise pulses called sferics. Those pulses propagate over large distances so that they can be continuously monitored with a network of ground based radio receivers. An empirical relationship between the sferics rate and the convective rainfall permitted maps of convective latent heating profiles to be derived continuously from the sferics distributions. Those inferred latent heating rates were assimilated into the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) that depicted an intense winter cyclone that passed over Florida on 2 February 1998. When compared to a 14 hour MM5 rainfall forecast using conventional data, the use of lightning data improved the forecast.
Chang, D. -E.↗
The promise of remote sensing in the atmospheric sciences
The applications and advances in remote sensing technology for weather prediction, mesoscale meteorology, severe storms, and climate studies are discussed. Doppler radar permits tracking of the three-dimensional field of motion within storms, thereby increasing the accuracy of convective storm modeling. Single Doppler units are also employed for detecting mesoscale storm vortices and tornado vortex signatures with lead times of 30 min. Clear air radar in pulsed and high resolution FM-CW forms reveals boundary layer convection, Kelvin-Helmoltz waves, shear layer turbulence, and wave motions. Lidar is successfully employed for stratospheric aerosol measurements, while Doppler lidar provides data on winds from the ground and can be based in space. Sodar is useful for determining the structure of the PBL. Details and techniques of satellite-based remote sensing are presented, and results from the GWE and FGGE experiments are discussed.
Atlas, D.↗
Limits on the lunar temperature profile
Limits on the selenotherm are estimated using (1) a preferred set of bounds on the lunar electrical conductivity profile; (2) published laboratory conductivity vs. temperature data for an olivine and several aluminous orthopyroxenes; and (3) estimates for the Al2O3 content of the deep interior suggested by bulk composition models. The inferred limits are narrowest in the depth range 450 to 1350 km and are in accord with independent geophysical constraints. Thermal history models which yield present-day selenotherms that are in best agreement with these limits are those which permit subsolidus convection at depths greater than 800 km in the moon.
Hood, L. L.↗
Computer modeling of solar wind interaction with Venus and Mars
The fundamental ideas, successes, and shortcomings of fluid models based on MHD theory for the interaction of the solar wind and a planetary magnetic field and/or atmosphere are reviewed, with special attention to applications to Venus and Mars. An account, including new quantitative results, is given of a number of enhancements of a basic gasdynamic convected field approximation to the magnetohydrodynamic model that incorporate features of solar wind flow past a planet not treated previously. These permit solutions to be calculated for 3D, as opposed to axisymmetric, obstacle shapes, the effects of a magnetic barrier region just exterior to the ionopause, the complete MHD equations for the special case in which the interplanetary magnetic field is aligned with the flow, the effects of mass loading by pickup of ions newly created by photoionization of atmospheric neutrals, and for the unsteady effects associated with the passage of an interplanetary shock wave. Particular emphasis is placed on the information furnished by these models that can be compared with observations, and conversely on the observational data that provide critical tests of the models.
Spreiter, John R.↗
Development of a New Membrane Casting Apparatus for Studying Macrovoid Defects in Low-G
A new membrane-casting apparatus is developed for studying macrovoid defects in polymeric membranes made by the wet- and dry-casting process in low-gravity. Macrovoids are large (10-50 micron), open cavities interspersed among the smaller pores in the substructure under the gelled skin surface layer of the cast membrane. Although their occurrence is considered endemic to the wet- and dry-casting process since they can lead to compaction or skin rupture in the membrane process, recent studies suggest several useful applications such as transdermal and osmotic drug delivery systems, miniature bioreactors, etc. However, lack of knowledge about the macrovoid formation mechanism is an obstacle to further development of applications using them. An on-going debate is the role of the surface-tension-driven solutocapillary convection during macrovoid formation. The rapid growth of macrovoids within 1-5 seconds and the high polymer concentration in and near macrovoids make it difficult to explain the mechanism of macrovoid growth by diffusion alone, which is the widely accepted hypothesis proposed by Reuvers et al. The hypothesis advanced by our research group can explain this rapid growth via a mechanism that involves diffusion from the casting solution in the meta-stable region to the macrovoid enhanced by solutocapillary convection induced by the steep nonsolvent concentration gradient in the vicinity of the macrovoid. Since macrovoid growth is hypothesized to be the interplay of a solutocapillary-induced driving force counteracted by viscous drag and buoyancy, eliminate the latter provides a means for testing this hypothesis. Moreover, free convection mass transfer in the nonsolvent immersion bath used to cause phase-separation in membrane casting complicates developing a model for both the wet-casting process and macrovoid growth. The low-g environment minimizes gravitationally induced free convection thereby permitting a tractable solution to the ternary diffusion equations that characterize membrane formation. NASA's Parabolic Flight Research Aircraft provides a small window of low-g (approximately 25 s) that can be used to study macrovoid development in both wet- and dry-cast membranes if an appropriate casting apparatus is used. This casting apparatus should be able to cast the membrane in both low- and high-g in a manner so that essential one-dimensional mass transfer conditions are achieved to insure lateral uniformity in the membrane. The apparatus used in previous research on membrane casting in low-gravity was operated with the plunger driven mechanism. The spring-loaded plunger pushes the bottom block containing the polymer casting solution well directly under the absorbent chamber located in the upper stationary block. However, membranes made via this casting apparatus often displayed lateral nonuniformities that precluded obtaining quantitative information on the macrovoid growth process. Thus, it was necessary to determine the reason for these structural irregularities observed in the low-g casting apparatus. Both experimental as well as computer simulation studies of the low-g casting apparatus established that the impulsive action of the plunger caused the undesired structural nonuniformities. The simulation results showed that the width-to-depth aspect ratio of the shallow well that contains the casting solution in this apparatus was not an important factor in minimizing this problem. Even for a 40:1 (width : depth) aspect ratio, any convection induced by the horizontal motion of the interface of the casting solution will be damped out within 6.25x10(exp 4) seconds. However, the experimental studies revealed that the impulsive motion of the plunger caused a 'sloshing' of the casting solution that had to be eliminated. Therefore, the plungerdriven mechanism was changed to a cam-driven mechanism that did not cause any impulsive motion of the casting solution. Other refinements to this new membrane-casting apparatus include provision for removing the membranes from the casting wells in a less destructive manner. This was accomplished by using a slit geometry for the casting well that permitted disassembly for removal of the cast membrane. The materials used in the construction of this casting apparatus were chosen to insure wetting at the side walls and to maintain precise control of the thickness of the polymer solution in the casting well. An additional provision in this new casting apparatus is the ability to carry out both wet- as well as dry-casting. As such, this apparatus permitted the first studies of the wet-casting of polymeric membranes in low-g. Both wet- and dry-casting experiments on NASA's KC-135 research aircraft employing this new membrane-casting apparatus are scheduled in July 2002. The morphology of the resulting membranes will be characterized using an environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM). The results of these low-g studies will be reported later.
Lee, Hanyong↗
Energy stability of thermocapillary convection in a model of the float-zone crystal-growth process. II - Nonaxisymmetric disturbances
Energy-stability theory has been applied to investigate the stability properties of thermocapillary convection in a half-zone model of the float-zone crystal-growth process. An earlier axisymmetric model has been extended to permit nonaxisymmetric disturbances, thus determining sufficient conditions for stability to disturbances of arbitrary amplitude. The results for nonaxisymmetric disturbances are compared with earlier axisymmetric results, with linear-stability results for a geometry with an infinitely long aspect ratio and with stability boundaries from recent laboratory experiments.
Neitzel, G. P.↗