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Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗

Satellite Data Inform Forecasts of Crop Growth

During a Stennis Space Center-led program called Ag 20/20, an engineering contractor developed models for using NASA satellite data to predict crop yield. The model was eventually sold to Genscape Inc., based in Louisville, Kentucky, which has commercialized it as LandViewer. Sold under a subscription model, LandViewer software provides predictions of corn production to ethanol plants and grain traders.

Source record↗

The Crop Evaluation Research for Environmental Strategies (CERES) Remote Sensing 2008 Project Activities

In recent years, the use of Plant Incorporated Protectant (PIP) corn by American producers has been increasing dramatically. PIP corn contains genetically inserted traits that produce toxins in the plant that provide narrowly targeted protection against specific insect pests. The plant producing t oxms can offer significant reductions in the application of broad -spectrum pesticides that have ecological and human health consequences. PIP corn as a percentage of total corn acreage planted in the US is expected to continue to increase as these protective traits are "stacked" with other desirable traits by seed companies, and producers are seeing considerable increases in corn yield as a result. The introduction of corn as a bio-fuel source for ethanol has increased production by over 6 million hectares in 2007. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), which is responsible for the registration of PIP crops under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act, views the use of PIP corn as positive. Broad spectrum pesticide use has declined since the PIP traits have been introduced. As the agricultural landscape sees a higher percentage of corn acres using the PIP technology, the risk of the targeted insect pest populations developing resistance to the toxins, thereby rendering the in will increase as well. This result would negate the effectiveness of the PIP corn traits and could reduce production of a US field corn crop valued at $33 billion dollars in 2006 and place US food and now energy security at risk. Concerns over insect pest resistance development to PIP traits have led the USEPA to team with NASA and the Institute for Technology Development (ITD) to develop geo-spatial technologies designed to proactively monitor the corn production landscape for insect pest infestation and possible resistance development. USEPA resistance management simulation models are combined with NASA remote sensi ng products to monitor the corn landscape for resistance development. The two agencies have entered into an agreement which could potentially lead to the development of next generation NASA sensors that will more specifically address the requirements of the USEPA's resistance development strategy and offer opportunities to study the ever changing ecosystem complexities. The USEPA/NASA/ITD team has developed a broad research project entitled CERES (Crop Evaluation Research for Environmental Strategies). CERES is a research effort leading to decision support system tools that are designed to integrate multi-resolution NASA remote sensing data products and USEPA geo -spatial models to monitor the potential for insect pest resistance development from the regional to the landscape and then to the field level.

Casas, Joseph C.↗

Emission Factors for Crop Residue and Prescribed Fires in the Eastern US during FIREX-AQ

Agricultural and prescribed burning activities emit large amounts of trace gases and aerosols on regional to global scales. We present a compilation of emission factors (EFs) and emission ratios (ERs) from the eastern portion of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign in 2019 in the United States, which sampled burning of crop residues and other prescribed fire fuels. FIREX-AQ provided comprehensive chemical characterization of 53 crop residue and 22 prescribed fires. Crop residues burned at different modified combustion efficiencies (MCE), with corn residue burning at higher MCE than other fuel types. Prescribed fires burned at lower MCE (<0.90) which is typical, while grasslands burned at lower MCE (0.90) than normally observed due to moist, green, growing season fuels. Most non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) were significantly anticorrelated with MCE except for ethanol and NMVOCs that were measured with less certainty. We identified 23 species where crop residue fires differed by more than 50% from prescribed fires at the same MCE. Crop residue EFs were greater for species related to agricultural chemical use and fuel composition as well as oxygenated NMVOCs possibly due to the presence of metals such as potassium. Prescribed EFs were greater for monoterpenes (5×). FIREX-AQ crop residue average EFs generally agreed with the previous agricultural fire study in the US but had large disagreements with global compilations. FIREX-AQ observations show the importance of regionally-specific and fuel-specific EFs as first steps to reduce uncertainty in modeling the air quality impacts of fire emissions.

air quality↗