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Various methods of cost estimating are described. The method and benefits are presented of industrial engineering type manhour and material based cost estimates.
This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.
Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.
Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.
Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the shortcomings of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-the-art in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority weaknesses within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.
Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.
This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity (COE) or cost of product (COP) metrics by which NETL estimates the impact of technology options. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines were initially developed for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen) by substituting the industrial product quantity for the electrical quantity in the equations. The tables contained in this QGESS have been expanded upon relative to previous versions to include values to assume for several industries.
The potential costs of several options of a manned Mars mission are examined. A cost estimating methodology based primarily on existing Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) parametric cost models is summarized. These models include the MSFC Space Station Cost Model and the MSFC Launch Vehicle Cost Model as well as other modes and techniques. The ground rules and assumptions of the cost estimating methodology are discussed and cost estimates presented for six potential mission options which were studied. The estimated manned Mars mission costs are compared to the cost of the somewhat analogous Apollo Program cost after normalizing the Apollo cost to the environment and ground rules of the manned Mars missions. It is concluded that a manned Mars mission, as currently defined, could be accomplished for under $30 billion in 1985 dollars excluding launch vehicle development and mission operations.
The cost estimation and economic evaluation methodologies presented are consistent with industry practice for assessing capital investment requirements and operating costs of coal conversion systems. All values stated are based on January, 1980 dollars with appropriate recognition of the time value of money. Evaluation of project economic feasibility can be considered a two step process (subject to considerable refinement). First, the costs of the project must be quantified and second, the price at which the product can be manufacturd must be determined. These two major categories are discussed. The summary of methodology is divided into five parts: (1) systems costs, (2)instant plant costs, (3) annual operating costs, (4) escalation and discounting process, and (5) product pricing.
This paper describes the process for defining and evaluating the costs of alternative transportation node concepts for Space Station Freedom. A cost estimating methodology including costs of development, production, delivery, assembly, steady state operations, and mission-specific operations is described in detail. The primary drivers of transportation node costs are identified and discussed.
Brush seals have been incorporated in the latest turbine engines to reduce leakage and improve efficiency. However, the life of these seals is limited by wear. Studies have shown that optimal sealing characteristics for a brush seal occur before the interference fit between the brush and shaft is excessively worn. Research to develop improved tribopairs (brush and coating) with reduced wear and lower friction has been hindered by the lack of an accurate, low-cost, efficient test methodology. Estimated costs for evaluating a new material combination in an engine company seal test program are on the order of $100,000. To address this need, the NASA Lewis Research Center designed, built, and validated a unique, innovative brush seal tuft tester that slides a single tuft of brush seal wire against a rotating shaft under controlled loads, speeds, and temperatures comparable to those in turbine engines. As an initial screening tool, the brush seal tuft tester can tribologicaly evaluate candidate seal materials for 1/10th the cost of full-scale seal tests. Previous to the development of the brush seal tuft tester facility, most relevant tribological data had been obtained from full-scale seal tests conducted primarily to determine seal leakage characteristics. However, from a tribological point of view, these tests included the confounding effects of varying contact pressures, bristle flaring, high-temperature oxidation, and varying bristle contact angles. These confounding effects are overcome in tuft testing. The interface contact pressures can be either constant or varying depending on the tuft mounting device, and bristle wear can be measured optically with inscribed witness marks. In a recent cooperative program with a U.S. turbine engine manufacturer, five metallic wire candidates were tested against a plasma-sprayed Nichrome-bonded chrome carbide. The wire materials used during this collaboration were either nickel-chrome- or cobaltchrome-based superalloys. These tests corroborated full-scale seal test results and provided insight into previously untested combinations. As the cycle temperature for improved efficiency turbine engines increases, new brush seal materials combinations must be considered. Future brush seal tuft testing will include both metallic and ceramic bristles versus commercial and NASA-developed shaft coatings. The ultimate goal of this work is to expand the current data base so that seal designers can tailor brush seal materials to specific applications.
This report discusses the general framework and development of a computational tool for preliminary design of aircraft structures based on process information. The described methodology is suitable for multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) activities associated with integrated product and process development (IPPD). The framework consists of three parts: (1) product and process definitions; (2) engineering synthesis, and (3) optimization. The product and process definitions are part of input information provided by the design team. The backbone of the system is its ability to analyze a given structural design for performance as well as manufacturability and cost assessment. The system uses a database on material systems and manufacturing processes. Based on the identified set of design variables and an objective function, the system is capable of performing optimization subject to manufacturability, cost, and performance constraints. The accuracy of the manufacturability measures and cost models discussed here depend largely on the available data on specific methods of manufacture and assembly and associated labor requirements. As such, our focus in this research has been on the methodology itself and not so much on its accurate implementation in an industrial setting. A three-tier approach is presented for an IPPD-MDO based design of aircraft structures. The variable-complexity cost estimation methodology and an approach for integrating manufacturing cost assessment into design process are also discussed. This report is presented in two parts. In the first part, the design methodology is presented, and the computational design tool is described. In the second part, a prototype model of the preliminary design Tool for Aircraft Structures based on Process Information (TASPI) is described. Part two also contains an example problem that applies the methodology described here for evaluation of six different design concepts for a wing spar.
Measures to reduce the operation costs of the Space Station which can be implemented in the design and development stages are discussed. Operational functions are described in the context of an overall operations concept. The provisions for operations cost responsibilities among the partners in the Space Station program are presented. Cost estimating methodologies and the way in which operations costs affect the design and development process are examined.
Information about home energy costs is essential for appraisers, lenders, and buyers, but reliable data are often unavailable in real estate transactions. To fill this gap, the National Laboratory of the Rockies developed the Energy Cost Estimate (ECE) tool. The tool provides flexible, data-driven estimates of annual household energy use and costs across the contiguous United States, using only a small number of inputs typically found in mortgage appraisals. This report presents the methodology behind version 2.0 of the ECE tool, demonstrates how users can generate estimates through its interface, and discusses its applications and limitations.
Cost data for the tug DDT&E and operations phases are presented. Option 6 is the recommended option selected from seven options considered and was used as the basis for ground processing estimates. Option 6 provides for processing the tug in a factory clean environment in the low bay area of VAB with subsequent cleaning to visibly clean. The basis and results of the trade study to select Option 6 processing plan is included. Cost estimating methodology, a work breakdown structure, and a dictionary of WBS definitions is also provided.
Within two years of being chartered in 1958 as an independent agency to conduct civilian pursuits in aeronautics and space, NASA absorbed either wholly or partially the people, facilities, and equipment of several existing organizations. These included the laboratories of the National Advisory Committee of Aeronautics (NACA) at Langley Research Center in Virginia, Ames Research Center in California, and Lewis Research Center in Ohio; the Army Ballistic Missile Agency (ABMA) at Redstone Arsenal Alabama, for which the team of Wernher von Braun worked; and the Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) and their ongoing work on big boosters. These were especially valuable resources to jump start the new agency in light of the shocking success of the Soviet space probe Sputnik in the autumn of the previous year and the corresponding pressure from an impatient American public to produce some response. Along with these inheritances, there came some existing systems engineering and management practices, including project cost estimating methodologies. This paper will briefly trace the origins of those methods and how they evolved within the agency over the past three decades.
Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.