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The problem of determining the cost impact attributable to perturbations in an aerospace R and D program schedule is discussed in terms of the diminishing availability of funds. The methodology from which a model is presented for updating R and D cost estimates as a function of perturbations in program time is presented.
The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.
The potential impact of transportation price on the financial performance of space business ventures is analyzed. Business plans for generic space facilities (both STS based and free-flying), space processing, and communications satellite businesses were developed. Impacts were established parametrically for return on investment and customer product/service price as a function of transportation price. The following businesses were considered: communications satellite; shuttle based and free-flying space facilities; and space pharmaceuticals manufacturing and minilab leasing.
Mission analysis is discussed, including the consolidation and expansion of mission equipment and experiment characteristics, and determination of simplified shuttle flight schedule. Parametric analysis of standard space hardware and preliminary shuttle/payload constraints analysis are evaluated, along with the cost impact of low cost standard hardware.
SDS-930 computer determines impact cost-decision value at any chronological point in definition phase of multiprogram project. Options, option combinations, and different displays are listed. Graphical procedure was chosen as best method for project.
Integrated multipath program analysis and cost technique to assess multiple program decision impacts on program cost
Charts relating to helicopter noise reduction design efforts are given. Information regarding priorities, design guidelines, design margins, risks, noise prediction, derivative trends, design impact, and cost impact is given.
This study proposes to leverage the evaluation of the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants as compared to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign as defined in a companion paper, to explore this architectural question: how do choices in the number and function of different vehicles performing lunar descent and ascent impact the cost breakeven of using in-situ propellant production relative to propellant delivery from Earth for a combination of human lunar and Mars missions?
The optimum hardware miniaturization level with the lowest cost impact for space biology hardware was determined. Space biology hardware and/or components/subassemblies/assemblies which are the most likely candidates for application of miniaturization are to be defined and relative cost impacts of such miniaturization are to be analyzed. A mathematical or statistical analysis method with the capability to support development of parametric cost analysis impacts for levels of production design miniaturization are provided.
This report presents an informal survey of experts in the field of spacecraft automation, with recommendations for which technologies should be given the greatest development attention for implementation on the initial 1990's NASA Space Station. The recommendations implemented an autonomy philosophy that was developed by the Concept Development Group's Autonomy Working Group during 1983. They were based on assessments of the technologies' likely maturity by 1987, and of their impact on recurring costs, non-recurring costs, and productivity. The three technology areas recommended for programmatic emphasis were: (1) artificial intelligence expert (knowledge based) systems and processors; (2) fault tolerant computing; and (3) high order (procedure oriented) computer languages. This report also describes other elements required for Station autonomy, including technologies for later implementation, system evolvability, and management attitudes and goals. The cost impact of various technologies is treated qualitatively, and some cases in which both the recurring and nonrecurring costs might be reduced while the crew productivity is increased, are also considered. Strong programmatic emphasis on life cycle cost and productivity is recommended.
The relative cost impacts (up or down) of developing Space Biology hardware using design modularity and commonality is studied. Recommendations for how the hardware development should be accomplished to meet optimum design modularity requirements for Life Science investigation hardware will be provided. In addition, the relative cost impacts of implementing commonality of hardware for all Space Biology hardware are defined. Cost analysis and supporting recommendations for levels of modularity and commonality are presented. A mathematical or statistical cost analysis method with the capability to support development of production design modularity and commonality impacts to parametric cost analysis is provided.
Although this criterion was developed specifically for use on the shuttle program, it has application to many other multi-missions programs (i.e. aircraft or mechanisms). The methodology employed is directly applicable even if the tools (nomographs and equations) are for mission peculiar cases. The redundancy selection criterion was developed to insure that both the design and operational cost impacts (life cycle costs) were considered in the selection of the quantity of operational redundancy. These tools were developed as aids in expediting the decision process and not intended as the automatic decision maker. This approach to redundancy selection is unique in that it enables a pseudo systems analysis to be performed on an equipment basis without waiting for all designs to be hardened.
There is considerable interest in developing new reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) for reducing the cost of transporting payload to and from orbit. This work reviews thirteen candidate thermal protection system (TPS) options currently available for RLVs. It is useful to begin with the current Shuttle TPS layout as a reference. The nose cap and wing leading edge , which reach the highest temperatures, are made of reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) that is protected from oxidation by an external coating (about 0.020" thick) of silicon-carbide. Most of the windward surface is 9 lb/cubic ft ceramic tiles (LI-900) with a thin (about 0.012") coating of Reaction Cured Glass (RCG). The leeward side of the vehicle is covered largely by AFRSI, a quilted ceramic blanket, and FRSI, a polyamide felt. These four materials can be considered first generation reusable TPS. Since the time of the Shuttle design, considerable progress has been made advancing TPS technologies in terms of thermal performance, robustness, and cost. For each of the major systems, a second generation ceramic TPS has been developed, tested, and characterized. Metallic-based systems have also been developed. For applications requiring RCC in the past, advanced carbon-carbon (ACC) is now available. This material has better mechanical properties, somewhat higher temperature capability to 2900F and greatly increased oxidation resistance. New carbon fiber reinforced silicon-carbide matrix composites (C/SiCs) have shown additional improvement in properties over ACC with use temperatures to 3000F and above. For rigid tiles, NASA Ames has made two significant advancements. The first is a tile substrate called Alumina Enhanced Thermal Barrier, or AETB, that incorporates alumina fibers for improved dimensional stability at high temperatures, to 2600F and above. This material can be made to densities as low as 8 lb/cubic ft. The second is a coating preparation called Toughened Uni-piece Fibrous Insulation, or TUFT, that penetrates about 0.1 in. into the tile substrate. The resulting composite, with a functionally gradient density near the surface, provides orders of magnitude increased damage resistance compared with RCG coated LI-900, with only a small weight increase. The TPS that combines these two developments is called AETB-8/TUFI and has been adopted for high damage areas on the Shuttles. Two notable developments have occur-red in flexible ceramic blanket technology. The first is aluminoborosilicate-based fibers with use temperatures of 2200F and above," in comparison to quartz and silica fiber used in AFRSI which have multi-use temperature limits of 1200 to 1400F. Blankets incorporating these new high temperature fibers are referred to as AFRSI-HT. The second is an integral weaving techniques that produces a fluted core blanket with a smoother surface and greater resistance to aero-acoustic noise, to levels as high as 170 dB. This Ames innovation is called Tailorable Advanced Blanket Insulation, or TABI. Finally, for felt-based TPS, Boeing is developing Polybenzimidazole Blanket Insulation, or PBI, with a multi-use temperature limit of 1000F and above, in contrast to Shuttle FRSI which has a multi-use temperature limit of about 700F. 1.6 NASA Langley and BF Goodrich (formerly Rohr Corp.) have led the development of metallic-based TPS. This activity uses essentially three approaches: metallic tiles which encase a fibrous ceramic batting in a box fabricated largely from metallic honeycombs, typically Nickel based alloys; metallic honeycomb sheets, made of Nickel-based alloys, incorporating a fibrous back-side insulation encapsulated in a metallic foil bag, providing reduced weight; and metallic multi-wall, which is comprised of dimpled Titanium metal sheets, which are stacked and then diffusion bonded at contact points to form the TPS. The Nickel-based systems can be used up to temperatures of about 1800F, and the Titanium system to about 100F. These thirteen TPS materials have pros and cons to their usage in terms of temperature capability, weight, initial cost, and maintenance. Carbon-carbon and C/SiC systems have the highest temperature capability but are relatively expensive and heavy, requiring significant time, expertise, and costly facilities and tools for design and fabrication. Second generation ceramic tiles are relatively light, durable, simple to fabricate and easy to install; however, waterproofing is a concern. Blankets and felts are light, simple, inexpensive, and easy to install over curved vehicle surfaces, but durability and waterproofing are concerns. Metallics are robust and appear to have eliminated waterproofing, but they tend to be heavy and relatively expensive, requiring costly facilities and tools. If thin metal sheets are used to reduce weights, then issues arise from possible metal fatigue and corrosion caused by thermal cycling, pressure oscillations, and environmental exposure. For application to future RLVs, system analyses show that a significant component of the vehicle life cycle cost is from the TPS; however, it is difficult to quantify and to compare the potential savings of advanced systems without performing full vehicle designs using each of the different options. Because this entails a considerable effort and also tends to submerge TPS cost impacts under unrelated vehicle design assumptions, there is a clear need for a simpler quantitative method to evaluate the cost impact of different TPS options. To this end, this work introduces a TPS life-cycle cost parameter which is easily computed and applicable to generic RLVs.
A cost study comparing flat conductor cable (FCC) with small-gage wire (SGW) and conventional round conductor cable (RCC) is presented. This study was based on a vehicle wiring system consisting of 110,000 ft of conventional RCC equally divided between AWG sizes 20,22, and 24 using MIL-W-81044-type wire and MIL-C-26500 circular connectors. Basic cost data were developed on a similar-sized commercial jet airplane wiring system on a previous company R&D program in which advanced wiring techniques were carried through equivalent installations on an airplane mockup; and on data developed on typical average bundles during this program. Various cost elements included were engineering labor, operations (manufacturing) labor, material costs, and cost impact on payload. Engineering labor includes design, wiring system integration, wiring diagrams and cable assembly drawings, wire installations, and other related supporting functions such as the electronic data processing for the wiring. Operations labor includes mockup, tooling and production planning, fabrication, assembly, installation, and quality control cost impact on payload is the conversion of wiring system weight variations through use of different wiring concepts to program payload benefits in terms of dollars.
Cost distributions and facility and tooling cost impact on unit production costs for 2 and 20 per year production rates in state of art, improved, and advanced manufacturing technologies
A process model was developed to assess the suitability of new/modified technologies and subsystems for application to commercial launch vehicles. Suitability is measured in terms of cost, safety, and environmental impact. Cost is related to recurring production and operational cost per flight, amortization of non-recurring development costs, 'effective' cost of difference in payload capability, and the cost of unreliability. The process is also applicable for assessing technologies and subsystems for application to other launch vehicles. The process will enable a comprehensive systems engineering approach to assess the potential of technologies and subsystems for launch vehicle applications and to provide documentation of the results for application to technology planning for the future.
The state of the art analytical techniques for the development and verification of digital flight control software is studied and a practical designer oriented development and verification methodology is produced. The effectiveness of the analytic techniques chosen for the development and verification methodology are assessed both technically and financially. Technical assessments analyze the error preventing and detecting capabilities of the chosen technique in all of the pertinent software development phases. Financial assessments describe the cost impact of using the techniques, specifically, the cost of implementing and applying the techniques as well as the relizable cost savings. Both the technical and financial assessment are quantitative where possible. In the case of techniques which cannot be quantitatively assessed, qualitative judgements are expressed about the effectiveness and cost of the techniques. The reasons why quantitative assessments are not possible will be documented.