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This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.
Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.
A unique computer modeling tool that combines an engineering tool with a financial analysis program is described. The resulting combination yields a flexible economic model that can predict the cost effectiveness of various mobile systems. Cost modeling is necessary in order to ascertain if a given system with a finite satellite resource is capable of supporting itself financially and to determine what services can be supported. Personal computer techniques using Lotus 123 are used for the model in order to provide as universal an application as possible such that the model can be used and modified to fit many situations and conditions. The output of the engineering portion of the model consists of a channel capacity analysis and link calculations for several qualities of service using up to 16 types of earth terminal configurations. The outputs of the financial model are a revenue analysis, an income statement, and a cost model validation section.
Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored
NASA's JPL managed by Cal Tech is currently investing ways to improve its ability to increase the cost estimation accuracy early in the project life cycle.
As the next generation of Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) vehicles develops and the VTOL industry makes significant progress in utilizing them for public transportation, it is crucial to have validated and cost-effective computational models accessible to both industry professionals and academics in the rotorcraft community. This study investigates the implementation of a new actuator line model within NASA’s OVERFLOW computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver, with a focus on predicting rotorcraft outwash. This reduced-order rotor model was developed to provide reasonably accurate outwash predictions while reducing computational costs compared to traditional blade-resolved CFD simulations. To validate the actuator line model for outwash predictions, the model was compared against existing experimental data across three validation cases: single rotor Out-of-Ground Effect (OGE), single rotor In-Ground Effect (IGE), and tandem rotor IGE. All three cases were based on the rotor geometry and configuration of the CH-47D. To evaluate the feasibility and advantages of using an actuator line model for outwash predictions the results were compared to a series of high-fidelity blade-resolved CFD simulations as well as comprehensive analyses simulations based on CHARM predictions. The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of leveraging this new actuator line model for reasonably accurate outwash predictions. The outwash results obtained from the actuator line model closely matched those from high-fidelity blade-resolved simulations while significantly reducing the overall computational costs of the simulations. Results from this study further demonstrated the feasibility of using CHARM for efficient, and reasonably accurate time-averaged outwash predictions for multi-rotor configurations.
Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single mission-type support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multi-mission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature service-oriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.
Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single missiontype support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multimission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature serviceoriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.
This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.
Applications of Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods to determine the regimes of applicability of nonlinear models describing the unsteady aerodynamic responses to aircraft flight motions are described. The potential advantages of computational methods over experimental methods are discussed and the concepts underlying mathematical modeling are reviewed. The economic and conceptual advantages of the modeling procedure over coupled, simultaneous solutions of the gasdynamic equations and the vehicle's kinematic equations of motion are discussed. The modeling approach, when valid, eliminates the need for costly repetitive computation of flow field solutions. For the test cases considered, the aerodynamic modeling approach is shown to be valid.
Applications of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods to determine the regimes of applicability of nonlinear models describing the unsteady aerodynamic responses to aircraft flight motions are described. The potential advantages of computational methods over experimental methods are discussed and the concepts underlying mathematical modeling are reviewed. The economic and conceptual advantages of the modeling procedure over coupled, simultaneous solutions of the gas dynamic equations and the vehicle's kinematic equations of motion are discussed. The modeling approach, when valid, eliminates the need for costly repetitive computation of flow field solutions. For the test cases considered, the aerodynamic modeling approach is shown to be valid.
Parametric cost models are used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews an on-going effort to develop cost modes for space telescopes. This paper summarizes the methodology used to develop cost models and documents how changes to the database have changed previously published preliminary cost models. While the cost models are evolving, the previously published findings remain valid: it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; technology development as a function of time reduces cost; and lower areal density telescopes cost more than more massive telescopes.
The Fission Power System (FPS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) consists of a pumped sodium-potassium (NaK) loop that provides heat to a Stirling Power Conversion Unit (PCU), which converts some of that heat into electricity and rejects the waste heat to a pumped water loop. Each of the TDU subsystems is being tested independently prior to full system testing at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The pumped NaK loop is being tested at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; the Stirling PCU and electrical controller are being tested by Sunpower Inc.; and the pumped water loop is being tested at Glenn. This paper describes cold-end subsystem setup and testing at Glenn. The TDU cold end has been assembled in Vacuum Facility 6 (VF 6) at Glenn, the same chamber that will be used for TDU testing. Cold-end testing in VF 6 will demonstrate functionality; validated cold-end fill, drain, and emergency backup systems; and generated pump performance and system pressure drop data used to validate models. In addition, a low-cost proof-of concept radiator has been built and tested at Glenn, validating the design and demonstrating the feasibility of using low-cost metal radiators as an alternative to high-cost composite radiators in an end-to-end TDU test.
The Fission Power System (FPS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) consists of a pumped sodiumpotassium (NaK) loop that provides heat to a Stirling Power Conversion Unit (PCU), which converts some of that heat into electricity and rejects the waste heat to a pumped water loop. Each of the TDU subsystems is being tested independently prior to full system testing at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The pumped NaK loop is being tested at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; the Stirling PCU and electrical controller are being tested by Sunpower Inc.; and the pumped water loop is being tested at Glenn. This paper describes cold-end subsystem setup and testing at Glenn. The TDU cold end has been assembled in Vacuum Facility 6 (VF 6) at Glenn, the same chamber that will be used for TDU testing. Cold-end testing in VF 6 will demonstrate functionality; validated coldend fill, drain, and emergency backup systems; and generated pump performance and system pressure drop data used to validate models. In addition, a low-cost proof-of concept radiator has been built and tested at Glenn, validating the design and demonstrating the feasibility of using low-cost metal radiators as an alternative to highcost composite radiators in an end-to-end TDU test.
Mesh adaption is a powerful tool for efficient unstructured grid computations but causes load imbalance on multiprocessor systems. To address this problem, we have developed PLUM, an automatic portable framework for performing adaptive large-scale numerical computations in a message-passing environment. This paper makes several important additions to our previous work. First, a new remapping cost model is presented and empirically validated on an SP2. Next, our load balancing strategy is applied to sequences of dynamically adapted unstructured grids. Results indicate that our framework is effective on many processors for both steady and unsteady problems with several levels of adaption. Additionally, we demonstrate that a coarse starting mesh produces high quality load balancing, at a fraction of the cost required for a fine initial mesh. Finally, we show that the data remapping overhead can be significantly reduced by applying our heuristic processor reassignment algorithm.
This paper describes measurement systems required to forecast, measure, and control activities for large, complex software development and support programs. Initial software cost and quality analysis provides the foundation for meaningful management decisions as a project evolves. In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between the functionality, quality, cost, and schedule of the product must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. This balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and developers with respect to the processes being employed.
SAMICS provides a consistent basis for estimating array costs and compares production technology costs. A review and a validation of the SAMICS model are reported. The review had the following purposes: (1) to test the computational validity of the computer model by comparison with preliminary hand calculations based on conventional cost estimating techniques; (2) to review and improve the accuracy of the cost relationships being used by the model: and (3) to provide an independent verification to users of the model's value in decision making for allocation of research and developement funds and for investment in manufacturing capacity. It is concluded that the SAMICS model is a flexible, accurate, and useful tool for managerial decision making.
For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to highlight their inappropriateness for what is really needed at the conceptual phase of the design process. The First-Order Process Velocity Cost Model (FOPV) is discussed at length in the next section. This is followed by an application of the FOPV cost model to a generic wing. For designs that have no precedence as far as acquisition costs are concerned, cost data derived from the FOPV cost model may not be accurate enough because of new requirements for shape complexity, material, equipment and precision/tolerance. The concept of Cost Modulus is introduced at this point to compensate for these new burdens on the basic processes. This is treated in section 5. The cost of a design must be conveniently linked to its CAD representation. The interfacing of CAD models and spreadsheets containing the cost equations is the subject of the next section, section 6. The last section of the report is a summary of the progress made so far, and the anticipated research work to be achieved in the future.