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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Validation of the NLR Pumped Storage Hydropower Cost Model

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) first released its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) cost model in 2023 as the most detailed bottom-up PSH cost model available to the public. It is available both as a spreadsheet and an interactive web tool, enabling users with a variety of PSH interests to transparently characterize costs of alternative PSH sites and designs. The PSH cost model cannot replace detailed site-level studies and design, but it is important to validate it against other industry PSH cost estimates. The initial model methodology report validated the cost model for a single proposed site, the Eagle Mountain Project in California. This slide deck documents an expanded validation exercise using cost data from six other sites: Goldendale (Washington), Seminoe (Wyoming), Gordon Butte (Montana), Swan Lake (Oregon), White Pine (Oregon), and Lewis Ridge (Kentucky). It compares itemized costs from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) applications and other reported costs with NLR PSH cost model outputs after customizing inputs for each site. The validation exercise finds that the NLR model's conservative indirect cost assumptions often drive overall cost overestimation, with direct cost comparisons typically agreeing more closely. All cost model estimates are well within an Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) Class 5 estimation range (-50% to +100%), with five within the AACE Class 4 range (-30% to +50%) and four being within 15%. This result is considered reasonable performance for a parametric model applied at a preliminary design stage.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Bifacial PV Module Energy Modeling Validation Study

The cost delta between monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules was decreasing in 2018 when this study was initially proposed, making bifacial modules an attractive offering. However, there were limited field studies available that could be considered utility-scale representative, and PV module manufacturers were stating large ranges for the expected energy yield improvements of bifacial technology. This generated uncertainties regarding bifacial performance gains and the actual LCOE (levelized cost of energy). There was also relatively low confidence in the industry’s energy modeling tools’ ability to accurately predict bifacial energy yield, meaning that early adopters of bifacial modules were not able to fully account for the increased energy yield in their energy and financial models. The intent of this project was to provide the solar industry with greater certainty on the energy yield gains of bifacial modules and provide higher confidence in the ability for different energy modeling software to model bifacial PV site performance. Achieving this would allow for bifacial technology to become bankable (i.e. accepted by Independent Engineers, site financiers and other PV site stakeholders), offering a step change in PV site performance that had not been seen since the widespread adoption of the single-axis tracker. Over the course of this study other economic factors including a significant tariff exemption for bifacial modules resulted in accelerated adoption of bifacial technology throughout the US utility scale solar segment. The number of early adopters increased rapidly, and with many investors accepting this module choice the question of bifacial bankability was seemingly answered faster than expected. However, PVEL’s study has still achieved significant accomplishments in demonstrating the accuracy of bifacial modeling across three different software platforms. The results of this study have shown that the mean biased error (MBE) between the field data and the predicted values from all three software platforms were aligned with a maximum MBE of 1.3% and a minimum MBE of -1.8%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Benchtop Autonomous Electrochemical Characterization System for Combinatorial Thin-Film Solid Oxide Electrodes

The design of materials for electrochemical energy conversion is complicated by a vast search space of candidate materials and multifaceted property requirements: multicarrier conductivity, stability, and catalytic activity are all necessary but rarely intersect. Although self-driving laboratories are rapidly rising to address such material optimization problems, the required infrastructure for integrated, large-scale robotic facilities can be cost-prohibitive. Here we develop and evaluate a closed-loop measurement system for efficient screening of proton-conducting oxide electrodes for ceramic fuel cells and electrolyzers, building on top of an existing benchtop instrument and integrating techniques for rapid impedance measurement and automated analysis. This system exemplifies a “minimum viable” self-driving implementation that can deliver substantial benefits with relatively simple infrastructure. Combinatorial thin-film microelectrode libraries are characterized with a recently developed joint time-domain and frequency-domain impedance measurement technique, which provides an order-of-magnitude acceleration relative to conventional impedance spectroscopy. The distribution of relaxation times is extracted from impedance data and analyzed without human intervention. These results feed an active learning and Bayesian optimization process that learns to predict electrochemical impedance as a function of material composition, measurement temperature, oxygen partial pressure, and electrical bias, which further reduces the screening time by tenfold with optimized experimental sequences. We apply this system to Ba⁡(Co,Fe,Zr,Y)⁢O 3−𝛿 combinatorial libraries and evaluate its effectiveness for learning material property trends and optimizing expensive-to-evaluate properties such as activation energy. This offers insights into key methodological aspects of practical autonomous experimentation, including surrogate model validation, cost-aware acquisition functions, and high-throughput data interpretation. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the system for rapidly gathering information, but also highlight real-world experimental challenges of thin-film degradation and numerical instability in surrogate models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The influence of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, and vapor pressure deficit on seawater-induced tree mortality

We report increasing seawater exposure is killing coastal trees globally, with expectations of accelerating mortality with rising sea levels. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on seawater-induced tree mortality is uncertain. We examined the mechanisms of seawater-induced mortality under varying climate scenarios using a photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost optimization model validated against observations in a mature stand of Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees in the Pacific Northwest, USA, that were dying from recent seawater exposure. The simulations matched well with observations of photosynthesis, transpiration, nonstructural carbohydrates concentrations, leaf water potential, the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, and stand-level mortality rates. The simulations suggest that seawater-induced mortality could decrease by ~16.7% with increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels due to reduced risk of carbon starvation. Conversely, rising VPD could increase mortality by ~5.6% because of increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Across all scenarios, seawater-induced mortality was driven by hydraulic failure in the first two years after seawater exposure began, with carbon starvation becoming more important in subsequent years. Changing CO 2 and climate appear unlikely to have a significant impact on coastal tree mortality under rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Post-Access Report: Tidal Energy Resource Characterization and Model Validation via the Assessment of Cost-effective Spatially Distributed Current Measurements from microFloat Swarms

This project evaluated how high-resolution, spatially distributed field data can be used to refine and validate site-scale hydrodynamic simulations of tidal channels. Use of such spatially-distributed field observations or site-scale hydrodynamic simulations will be needed for producing accurate predictions of tidal energy production over larger arrays of tidal turbines. The data contained in this archive includes field observations of water velocity from a series of short surveys in Agate Pass taken on August 20th, 2020 using station-keeping ADCP (acoustic doppler current profiler) measurements, drifting downward-looking ADCPs, and microFloats, gathered by researchers at APL-UW under a previous project. It also includes high-resolution hydrodynamic model runs for the site during that time generated under TEAMER support. An explanatory file (.pdf format) describes the survey and field data structure. Processed data is stored in .mat format. Survey summary: start time, number of floats, water level. microFloat data: - Cleaned data for each float in survey, - Time series of position (lat., lon.), depth (relative to surface), and horizontal velocity (u, v) Drifting ADCP data: - Cleaned data for each drifting ADCP in survey - Time series of position (lat., lon.), sample depth (relative to surface), and observed water velocity (u,v,w) Stationary ADCP data: - Cleaned data for each station-keeping data set in survey - Time series of position (lat., lon.), sample depth (relative to surface), and observed water velocity (u,v,w) FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) model outputs: Water level and velocity, as well as derived variables (e.g., power density) from the final refined model simulations for the Agate Pass subdomain. Contained in NetCDF and ASCII files for the duration of August 18th and 20th 2020 field surveys. Additional scripts for processing the data and generating the figures in the report are included.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Application-Driven Creation of Building Metadata Models with Semantic Sufficiency

Semantic metadata models such as Brick, RealEstateCore, Project Haystack, and BOT promise to simplify and lower the cost of developing software for smart buildings, enabling the widespread deployment of energy efficiency applications. However, creating these models remains a challenge. Despite recent advances in creating models from existing digital representations like point labels and architectural models, there is still no feedback mechanism to ensure that the human input to these methods results in a model that can actually support the desired software. In this paper, we introduce the notion of semantic sufficiency, a practical principle for semantic metadata model creation that asserts that a model is "finished" when it contains the metadata necessary to support a given set of applications. To support semantic sufficiency, we design a standard representation for capturing application metadata requirements and a templating system for generating common metadata model components with limited user input. We then construct an iterative model creation workflow that integrates metadata requirements to direct the model creation effort, and present several novel optimizations that increase the model utility while minimizing the effort by a human operator. These new abstractions for model creation and validation lower model development costs and ensure the utility of the resulting model, thus facilitating the adoption of intelligent building applications.

applications↗

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. This paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Representative Period Selection for Robust Capacity Expansion Planning in Low-carbon Grids

With the increasing urgency to decarbonize power systems, while mitigating extreme events, capacity expansion models can play a vital role in reliably planning the expansion of power systems and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. Optimizing capacity expansion generally involves selecting surrogate representative days from forecasts of load and the generation profiles of variable renewable energy resources. To properly select those representative days, we propose a novel input-based approach in combination with the k-means clustering algorithm that utilize three unique operational inputs: load shedding, renewable curtailment, and transmission congestion. The proposed method allows for more robust and cost-effective capacity planning. The method is validated using a capacity expansion model and a production cost model based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO)'s decarbonization goals, and results in reduced costs and drastically lower load shedding.

Anderson, Osten P.↗

Economic assessment of seismic monitoring for underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) plays a key role in the energy landscape. However, like other subsurface engineering technologies, UHS may cause leakage into the groundwater or atmosphere and possibly induce local seismicity. To reduce these risks, seismic monitoring could be a viable technique to track the UHS plume, detect leakages, and locate induced seismicity events. Seismic monitoring has been proposed to safely monitor UHS, but research in this area is still new and requires field studies. Lab and theoretical studies have demonstrated the validity of seismic monitoring for UHS. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the economic feasibility of seismic monitoring for UHS. Hence, we develop a cost model and open-source Python code for seismic monitoring that considers types of seismometers, comprehensive operational scenarios, detection thresholds, and long-term leakage monitoring. A case study is further provided to validate the cost model on reservoir simulations of UHS. We find that the levelized cost for a 10-year operating UHS site will range on the order of ∼0.003 $\$$/kg. The methods developed in this study could also be applied to the monitoring of groundwater, gas, and/or wastewater injection.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Spatial Atomic Layer Deposition to Scale Manufacturing of Robust Catalysts for Biomass Conversion Applications: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-715

This CRADA will facilitate technology maturation for NREL-developed ALD-coated catalyst materials that are tailored for durability during harsh biomass conversion chemistries. This project will address optimizing process parameters for scale-up of Al2O3 ALD-coated catalysts, demonstrating ALD-coated catalyst performance for muconic acid hydrogenation, and validating economic models that project significant cost benefits for ALD-enhanced catalytic processes. This work will strengthen private-public partnerships in the area of advanced catalyst manufacturing for energy-related technology. Critical information will be collected to elevate the Technology Readiness Level and increase our competitiveness for cooperative R&D agreements and licensing. Success of this work will be crosscutting as it can facilitate advanced catalyst development for both renewable and conventional processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Advanced Ceramic Membranes/Modules for Ultra Efficient Hydrogen (H2) Production/Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Capture for Coal-Based Polygeneration Plants: Fabrication, Testing, and CFD Modeling

Inorganic membrane-based systems are a promising technology for precombustion CO2 capture with simultaneous H2 production. State-of-the-art packages for high temperature and pressure service consist of multiple tube membrane bundles prepared in a "candle filter" configuration, in which the membrane tubes are open at one end and sealed at the other. This configuration is used for practical reasons, specifically the need to minimize problems due to thermal expansion mismatch between the ceramic tube bundle and the steel housing. However, the primary technical problem with the candle filter format for commercial-scale installations is the inability to purge the tube side (typically the permeate side), a feature that is crucial for high H2 recovery. In this study, the focus is to design and fabricate the first dual-end open full ceramic multiple tube membrane bundle that enables tube side (permeate) purge for gas separation applications. An additional key feature of this design is the simplified module layout, as the membrane bundles can be installed end-to-end with tube side (permeate) flow directly from one bundle to the next. This layout simplifies the membrane to housing seals and yields significant improvement in membrane packing density. Detailed focus areas in our studies include: (i) Materials development and preparation of the tube-to-tube sheet potting for the dual-ended bundle; (ii) the sealing and optimal module configuration design to minimize membrane stress upon module mounting; (iii) the demonstration, via the fabrication of CMS and Pd-alloy membranes supported on full-size, dual-ended ceramic support bundles, of the first example of a purgeable ceramic membrane and module; and (iv) development of a CFD model of the membrane module for calculation of feed flow distribution, and for use in scale-up, and capital cost estimating. The CFD model was validated using experimental data with the multi-tubular membrane system, employing He/N2 as a model gas mixture (surrogate for H2/CO2), and has been shown to be quite accurate. Employing the model, we are able to study the effects of operating pressure and temperature, feed and sweep gas flow rates, and the choice of membrane tube configuration on system performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Enhanced Catalyst Durability for the Oxidative Production of Biobased Chemicals (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

This CRADA will facilitate technology maturation for NREL-developed atomic layer deposition (ALD) coated catalyst materials that are tailored for durability during the oxidative production of biobased chemicals. This project will address optimizing process parameters for scaling aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) ALD coated catalysts, demonstrating ALD coated catalyst performance for biomass oxidation, and validating economic models that project significant cost benefits for ALD-enhanced catalytic processes. This work will strengthen private-public partnerships in the area of advanced catalyst manufacturing for energy-related technology. Critical information will be collected to elevate the Technology Readiness Level and increase our competitiveness for cooperative R&D agreements and licensing. Success of this work will be crosscutting as it can facilitate advanced catalyst development for both renewable and conventional processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Advanced Ceramic Membranes/Modules for Ultra Efficient Hydrogen (H2) Production/Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Capture for Coal-Based Polygeneration Plants: Fabrication, Testing and CFD Modeling

Inorganic membrane-based systems are a promising technology for precombustion CO2 capture with simultaneous H2 production. State-of-the-art packages for high temperature and pressure service consist of multiple tube membrane bundles prepared in a "candle filter" configuration, in which the membrane tubes are open at one end and sealed at the other. This configuration is used for practical reasons, specifically the need to minimize problems due to thermal expansion mismatch between the ceramic tube bundle and the steel housing. However, the primary technical problem with the candle filter format for commercial-scale installations is the inability to purge the tube side (typically the permeate side), a feature that is crucial for high H2 recovery. In this study, the focus is to design and fabricate the first dual-end open full ceramic multiple tube membrane bundle that enables tube side (permeate) purge for gas separation applications. An additional key feature of this design is the simplified module layout, as the membrane bundles can be installed end-to-end with tube side (permeate) flow directly from one bundle to the next. This layout simplifies the membrane to housing seals and yields significant improvement in membrane packing density. Detailed focus areas in our studies include: (i) Materials development and preparation of the tube-to-tube sheet potting for the dual-ended bundle; (ii) the sealing and optimal module configuration design to minimize membrane stress upon module mounting; (iii) the demonstration, via the fabrication of CMS and Pd-alloy membranes supported on full-size, dual-ended ceramic support bundles, of the first example of a purgeable ceramic membrane and module; and (iv) development of a CFD model of the membrane module for calculation of feed flow distribution, and for use in scale-up, and capital cost estimating. The CFD model was validated using experimental data with the multi-tubular membrane system, employing He/N2 as a model gas mixture (surrogate for H2/CO2), and has been shown to be quite accurate. Employing the model, we are able to study the effects of operating pressure and temperature, feed and sweep gas flow rates, and the choice of membrane tube configuration on system performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Evaluating the Adaptability of Reinforcement Learning Based HVAC Control for Residential Houses

Intelligent Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) control using deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has recently gained a lot of attention due to its ability to optimally control the complex behavior of the HVAC system. However, more exploration is needed on understanding the adaptability challenges that the DRL agent could face during the deployment phase. Using online learning for such applications is not realistic due to the long learning period and likely poor comfort control during the learning process. Alternatively, DRL can be pre-trained using a building model prior to deployment. However, developing an accurate building model for every house and deploying a pre-trained DRL model for HVAC control would not be cost-effective. In this study, we focus on evaluating the ability of DRL-based HVAC control to provide cost savings when pre-trained on one building model and deployed on different house models with varying user comforts. We observed around 30% of cost reduction by pre-trained model over baseline when validated in a simulation environment and achieved up to 21% cost reduction when deployed in the real house. This finding provides experimental evidence that the pre-trained DRL has the potential to adapt to different house environments and comfort settings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting the evolution of biomass bulk density through feedstock preprocessing: Discrete element modeling, regression analysis, and pilot-scale validation

Bulk density is an important material property of biomass feedstocks, influencing handling, storage, transport costs, and conversion efficiency. In this study, predictive regression models for loose and tapped bulk densities of Alamo and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass are developed using a comprehensive dataset generated via calibrated bonded-sphere discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Here, a key contribution of this study is the use of a DEM-based approach, which correlates density with moisture content and particle size distribution parameters and enables analysis across a continuous particle size range, overcoming limitations of purely experimental data. For comparison, regression models are also developed using only experimental data from pilot-scale runs at the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Validation against pilot-scale data showed reasonable prediction accuracy for both model types, particularly for smaller particle sizes (post-secondary grinding). While the experimental model showed slightly better performance matching the validation data in some cases, the DEM-based model benefits from a much larger dataset, reduced predictor multicollinearity, and continuous parameter coverage, highlighting the utility of validated simulation models for developing robust predictive tools for biomass preprocessing applications.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗