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At least 19 records

NASA/Navy lift/cruise fan cost reduction studies

Cost reduction studies were performed for the LCF459 turbotip fan for application with the YJ97-GE-100 gas generator in a multimission V/STOL research and technology aircraft. A 20 percent cost reduction of the research configuration based on the original preliminary design was achieved. The trade studies performed and the results in the area of cost reduction and weight are covered. A fan configuration is defined for continuation of the program through the detailed design phase.

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Manufacturing Cost Analysis for PEM Electrolyzers and Perspectives for Future Cost Reduction

Electrolyzer capital costs strongly influence the total levelized cost of hydrogen production and have implications for hydrogen deployment. Current electrolyzer costs are high, and large cost reductions may be needed to achieve competitive hydrogen costs and targets. Understanding pathways for cost reduction via R&D and deployment is a critical research area for informed energy planning and enabling hydrogen use. This work presents bottom-up cost estimates of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems tied to design specifications and discusses perspectives for cost reduction opportunities based on ongoing research. We use a detailed manufacturing and process model for a 1 MW PEM electrolyzer stack and balance of plant (BOP) for rigorous cost estimation. This allows for robust estimates of component and manufacturing costs and examination of key cost contributors. Stack costs are dominated by material costs such as iridium and platinum catalysts, especially at high manufacturing rates; power electronics and hydrogen purification equipment are the largest contributors to BOP cost. At higher manufacturing rates, better equipment utilization could reduce stack costs significantly, and we estimate that experience and bulk purchasing will allow for cost reductions to some BOP components. Still, many well-established BOP technologies and stack material costs are less likely to see significant cost reductions at high manufacturing rates. As such, manufacturing scale is limited in how much it can reduce electrolyzer costs, and additional advances for cost reduction may be needed to achieve cost targets. It will likely take many combined strategies to achieve significant cost reductions for electrolyzers and enable low-cost hydrogen production. We can use our manufacturing cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from the considerations described above and demonstrate pathways to lower cost electrolyzers. This allows for better understanding of cost reduction strategies and enables more informed research, development, and deployment for electrolyzers.

cost

Solar array cost reduction.

The costs regarding solar power systems are considered, giving attention to the total system cost index for the power system as a function of solar array area, and the recurring cost per square foot for the solar array versus the total area flight arrays built for each project. It is found that the costs decrease as production volume increases. Design standardization together with improvements in solar cell and array technology show promise of reducing costs. A long range program has been started to improve substantially the efficiency of silicon cells. Efficiencies approaching 20% are theoretically possible. One obstacle to cost reduction is that the volume of production required to satisfy the space program is not enough to justify a high degree of mechanization or automation.

Bernatowicz, D. T.

Low cost Czochralski crystal growing technology. Near implementation of the flat plate photovoltaic cost reduction of the low cost solar array project

Equipment developed for the manufacture of over 100 kg of silicon ingot from one crucible by rechanging from another crucible is described. Attempts were made to eliminate the cost of raising the furnace temperature to 250 C above the melting point of silicon by using an RF coil to melt polycrystalline silicon rod as a means of rechanging the crucible. Microprocessor control of the straight growth process was developed and domonstrated for both 4 inch and 6 inch diameter. Both meltdown and melt stabilization processes were achieved using operator prompting through the microprocessor. The use of the RF work coil in poly rod melting as a heat sink in the accelerated growth process was unsuccessful. The total design concept for fabrication and interfacing of the total cold crucible system was completed.

Roberts, E. G.

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity

Solar array cost reduction

A brief description is given of the cost of solar power systems over the last decade and means by which cost reductions may be achieved in the future. Costs were broken down into nonrecurring and recurring costs for solar array, battery, and power conditioning. Correlation of costs with power were poor; however, costs correlated reasonably well with the array area.

Bernatowicz, D. T.

Quantifying Capital Cost Reduction Pathways for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

The framework developed in this study is provided both as an excel sheet (https://inl.gov/content/uploads/2023/11/Nuclear-Reactor-Cost-Reduction-Pathway-Spreadsheet-Tool.xlsx) and a Python (Jupyter) Notebook (link: https://github.com/accert-dev/ACCERT/tree/main/Cost%20Reduction). Capital cost considerations are one of the primary inhibitors to the large-scale deployment of nuclear power plants. While it is widely accepted that first units will likely be expensive and relatively uncompetitive, it is reasonable to expect that subsequent units, built in relative quick succession, will be cheaper as they benefit from the so-called “learning effects”. However, the large degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter renders it challenging for first movers to invest in the first few expensive units. To resolve this impasse, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Nuclear Liftoff study advocated for the formation of large, committed order books of plants of the same technology to spread the costs across several units and kickstart the nuclear supply chain. The study also advocated best practices for avoiding overruns and keeping reactors on budget. This report builds on these key recommendations by attempting to quantify specific pathways toward cost reduction for nuclear energy. A capital cost estimation framework was built to untangle the effect of learning into a subset of key cost drivers, referred to as “levers”. Collectively, the choice of these levers is intended to reflect the decision-making of high-level stakeholders like plant owners and the government. In addition to the size of the firm orderbook, these levers included (a) cost drivers that are most often attributed to cost overruns such as architect/engineering (A/E) proficiency, construction proficiency, procurement service proficiency, design completion prior to the start of construction, and design maturity, and (b) cost reduction strategies such as modular construction, cross-site standardization, safety classification of the reactor building, and of the balance of plant. Two advanced reactor designs were leveraged as use cases and bottom-up cost estimates made with assumptions consistent with a well-executed first-of-a-kind project (WE-FOAK, i.e., almost no overruns) were used as baselines for the models. Cost correlations were surveyed from the literature to determine the impact of important variables on projected timelines and costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Solar array cost reductions.

There is great interest in reducing the cost of solar arrays, which will continue to be the prime power source for unmanned spacecraft for some time. The cost of solar power systems over the last decade, and means by which cost reductions may be achieved in the future are discussed. It is shown that the total system cost index is a function of solar array area, and that cost decreases as production of solar arrays goes up. This effect can be exploited more than has been done in the past by making common building blocks from which a variety of arrays can be assembled.

Bernatowicz, D. T.

Potential Fuel Cycle Cost Reductions of Once Through HALEU Reactors

This report looks to identify potential cost reduction opportunities for SFR and HTGR reactors using HALEU fuel. This analysis focuses on how learning rates and experience from other industries could translate to future HALEU fueled reactor fuel cycles. Various fuel loading and residence scenarios are evaluated to estimate areas of potential cost savings. Cost savings from location optimization is explored for both fresh and spent nuclear fuel. Additional analysis was completed to estimate cost savings through improved labor productivity.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Cost reduction in space operations - Structuring a planetary program to minimize the annual funding requirement as opposed to minimizing the program runout cost

An approach is proposed for the structuring of a planetary mission set wherein the peak annual funding is minimized to meet the annual budget restraint. One aspect of the approach is to have a transportation capability that can launch a mission in any planetary opportunity; such capability can be provided by solar electric propulsion. Another cost reduction technique is to structure a mission test in a time sequenced fashion that could utilize essentially the same spacecraft for the implementation of several missions. A third technique would be to fulfill a scientific objective in several sequential missions rather than attempt to accomplish all of the objectives with one mission. The application of the approach is illustrated by an example involving the Solar Orbiter Dual Probe mission.

Herman, D. H.

Spacecraft COst REduction Team (SCORE): TQM/CI on a massive scale

The business of building satellites and space systems has matured. Few missions require, or can afford, excellent performance at any price. The new paradigm is doing more with less, providing quality systems at lower cost--in other words, doing our job 'Faster-Better-Cheaper.' The TRW Spacecraft COst REduction (SCORE) initiative was launched in 1990 by Daniel S. Goldin, then general manager of TRW's Space & Technology Group. The SCORE mission is to apply continuous improvement (CI) techniques to effect major reductions in the cost (our primary goal) and span time (as a corollary) required for the production of spacecraft. SCORE is a multi-year initiative that is having a profound effect on both the procedural and the cultural aspects of how we do business. The objectives of this initiative are being realized. The focus of this paper is not on the results of SCORE per se, but rather on the things we have leaned about how to do continuous improvement on a massive scale, with multilevel (hierarchical) CI teams. The following sections summarize the chronology of the SCORE initiative, from team formation to development of the year-end report for 1991. Lessons learned, the core of this presentation, are discussed--with particular focus on the unique aspects of SCORE. The SCORE initiative is continuing and, as a part of our evolving culture, will never end. It has resulted in profound insights into the way we do work and (the topic at hand) how to do CI for large and complex multidisciplinary development activities.

Bullard, Jerry D.

Options for Achieving Cost Reduction in Advanced Reactors through Open Architecture

A key contributor to high capital costs and schedule overruns for new nuclear power plants is lack of standardization, driven by site-specific customization and construction of multiple designs by competing vendors rather than commitment to a single standardized program. While advanced reactor vendors typically individually target repeat construction of standardized units, the many competing designs could exacerbate the problem. “Open Architecture”, the open specification of requirements and interfaces for structures, systems and components (SSCs), has been proposed as a means of promoting standardization, by facilitating existing non-nuclear suppliers to enter the industry and/or allowing SSCs to be configured for more than one reactor within the same technology type. Contracting mechanisms that facilitate information sharing and alignment of incentives between stakeholders may complement such an approach. A preliminary scheme is presented for selection of SSCs for which such strategies could be adopted, based on a vendor make/buy decision model and stakeholder interviews. SSCs are categorized according to number of suppliers and their contribution to the reactor’s competitive edge. SSCs with many potential suppliers and a high contribution to competitive edge may be attractive for widening the supply chain via open specification of system requirements and interfaces, e.g., SSCs in the power island. SSCs with few suppliers and low contribution to competitive edge may be potential avenues for common system specification between vendors, e.g., some of the auxiliary SSCs. Potential cost reductions from such strategies will depend upon the size of the build program and the reactor type.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Flying Lessons: Learning from Ryanair's Cost Reduction Culture

Through radically improving the value equation for airline customers, Ryanair has served to shake-up established norms and practices in European aviation. Underpinning its price leadership and market success is a vigorous and relentless cost reduction ethos and resultant low break-even load factor. Ryanair has lowered European airline cost structures considerably, shattering existing cost floors. Few competitors are able to follow, either because they do not know how or they are unable due to social settlement obligations or service commitments. At the same time, the company has maintained high average load factors on its flights. Taken in conjunction with its low break-even load factor, this results in consistently high overall profit margins. On this basis, Ryanair is likely to remain a significant competitor and increase its market presence and success across Europe.

Lawton, Thomas C.

ISS Operations Cost Reductions Through Automation of Real-Time Planning Tasks

In 2007 the Johnson Space Center s Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) management team challenged their organizations to find ways to reduce the cost of operations for supporting the International Space Station (ISS) in the Mission Control Center (MCC). Each MOD organization was asked to define and execute projects that would help them attain cost reductions by 2012. The MOD Operations Division Flight Planning Branch responded to this challenge by launching several software automation projects that would allow them to greatly improve console operations and reduce ISS console staffing and intern reduce operating costs. These tasks ranged from improving the management and integration mission plan changes, to automating the uploading and downloading of information to and from the ISS and the associated ground complex tasks that required multiple decision points. The software solutions leveraged several different technologies including customized web applications and implementation of industry standard web services architecture; as well as engaging a previously TRL 4-5 technology developed by Ames Research Center (ARC) that utilized an intelligent agent-based system to manage and automate file traffic flow, archive data, and generate console logs. These projects to date have allowed the MOD Operations organization to remove one full time (7 x 24 x 365) ISS console position in 2010; with the goal of eliminating a second full time ISS console support position by 2012. The team will also reduce one long range planning console position by 2014. When complete, these Flight Planning Branch projects will account for the elimination of 3 console positions and a reduction in staffing of 11 engineering personnel (EP) for ISS.

Hall, Timothy A.

Do Mandates Deliver Cost Reductions for Energy Storage?

In 2013, California implemented a mandate directing the state’s investor-owned utilities to procure 1325 MW of energy storage, to help integrate nondispatchable renewable sources of energy and assist the state in meeting its environmental goals. This paper evaluates this policy’s impact of both battery deployment, and cost, finding that as of 2019, the state was effective in spurring nearly 500 MWh of battery storage deployment over what would have been installed in absence of the policy. This additive deployment would have the effect of reducing global battery cell costs by roughly $1.00/ kWh, based on learning by doing. To support these findings, we utilize both a difference in differences estimation, and a synthetic control analysis, both of which allow us to compare battery deployment in California, to deployment in other states. To pair deployment to cost reduction, we use a learning curve analysis, which links battery shipments to cell and storage block costs. For policymakers, these results provide evidence to the effectiveness of mandates in promoting storage deployment and help explain how these policies can induce downstream effects.

Boff, Daniel S.