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At least 19 records

Expendable vs reusable propulsion systems cost sensitivity

One of the key trade studies that must be considered when studying any new space transportation hardware is whether to go reusable or expendable. An analysis is presented here for such a trade relative to a proposed Liquid Rocket Booster which is being studied at MSFC. The assumptions or inputs to the trade were developed and integrated into a model that compares the Life-Cycle Costs of both a reusable LRB and an expendable LRB. Sensitivities were run by varying the input variables to see their effect on total cost. In addition a Monte-Carlo simulation was run to determine the amount of cost risk that may be involved in a decision to reuse or expend.

Hamaker, Joseph W.

Feature Acquisition with Imbalanced Training Data

This work considers cost-sensitive feature acquisition that attempts to classify a candidate datapoint from incomplete information. In this task, an agent acquires features of the datapoint using one or more costly diagnostic tests, and eventually ascribes a classification label. A cost function describes both the penalties for feature acquisition, as well as misclassification errors. A common solution is a Cost Sensitive Decision Tree (CSDT), a branching sequence of tests with features acquired at interior decision points and class assignment at the leaves. CSDT's can incorporate a wide range of diagnostic tests and can reflect arbitrary cost structures. They are particularly useful for online applications due to their low computational overhead. In this innovation, CSDT's are applied to cost-sensitive feature acquisition where the goal is to recognize very rare or unique phenomena in real time. Example applications from this domain include four areas. In stream processing, one seeks unique events in a real time data stream that is too large to store. In fault protection, a system must adapt quickly to react to anticipated errors by triggering repair activities or follow- up diagnostics. With real-time sensor networks, one seeks to classify unique, new events as they occur. With observational sciences, a new generation of instrumentation seeks unique events through online analysis of large observational datasets. This work presents a solution based on transfer learning principles that permits principled CSDT learning while exploiting any prior knowledge of the designer to correct both between-class and withinclass imbalance. Training examples are adaptively reweighted based on a decomposition of the data attributes. The result is a new, nonparametric representation that matches the anticipated attribute distribution for the target events.

Thompson, David R.

Reliability and cost: A sensitivity analysis

In the design phase of a system, how a design engineer or manager choose between a subsystem with .990 reliability and a more costly subsystem with .995 reliability is examined, along with the justification of the increased cost. High reliability is not necessarily an end in itself but may be desirable in order to reduce the expected cost due to subsystem failure. However, this may not be the wisest use of funds since the expected cost due to subsystem failure is not the only cost involved. The subsystem itself may be very costly. The cost of the subsystem nor the expected cost due to subsystem failure should not be considered separately but the total of the two costs should be maximized, i.e., the total of the cost of the subsystem plus the expected cost due to subsystem failure.

Suich, Ronald C.

Determining the Best-Fit FPGA for a Space Mission: An Analysis of Cost, SEU Sensitivity,and Reliability

This viewgraph presentation reviews the selection of the optimum Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) for space missions. Included in this review is a discussion on differentiating amongst various FPGAs, cost analysis of the various options, the investigation of radiation effects, an expansion of the evaluation criteria, and the application of the evaluation criteria to the selection process.

Berg, Melanie

High-Flow PMR-Polymide Composites Developed With Mechanical Properties Comparable to Other High-Temperature Systems

PMR polyimides, in particular PMR-15, are well known for their excellent high-temperature stability and performance, and solvent resistance. However, the processing of these materials is limited, for the most part, to prepreg-based methods, such as compression or autoclave processing. These methods involve substantial amounts of hand labor, and as a result, manufacturing costs for components made from PMR polyimides can be high. In cost-sensitive applications, these high manufacturing costs can make the use of PMR polyimide-based components cost prohibitive. Lower cost manufacturing methods, such as resin transfer molding (RTM) and resin film infusion, have been demonstrated to reduce manufacturing costs by as much as 50 percent over prepreg-based methods. However, these processes are only amenable to materials with melt viscosities below 30 poise. Most PMR polyimides have melt viscosities on the order of 100 poise or higher. Recent efforts at the NASA Glenn Research Center have focused on chemical modifications to PMR polyimides to reduce their melt viscosity to the point where they could be processed by these low-cost manufacturing methods without adversely affecting their high-temperature properties and performance. These efforts have led to a new family of PMR polyimides that have melt viscosities significantly lower than that of PMR-15. Reductions in melt viscosity are brought about through the introduction of molecular twists in the polymer backbone. Carbon fiber (T650- 35) composites were prepared from one of these polyimides, designated PMR-Flex, by compression molding. The properties of these composites are presented below and compared with comparable composites made from PMR-15 and PETI-RTM, a new low-melt-viscosity polyimide.

Meador, Michael A.

Solid rocket motor cost model

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

Harney, A. G.

Cost and sizing sensitivities for the solar power satellite

A summary is provided of the characteristics and error parameters of the reference microwave transmission system for the solar power satellite (SPS). The relative importance of electrical and mechanical tolerances upon scattered microwave power and electrical costs is investigated. It is found that small increases in efficiency and/or reduction of losses (less than one percent) can improve the revenue from a single satellite over its 30-year lifetime by several hundred million dollars. Attention is given to a system definition, cost sensitivities for the reference system, the klystron dc-RF conversion efficiency, the transmitting antenna, the rectenna collection efficiency, system sizing tradeoffs, a cost analysis, and multiple antennas.

Monford, L.

Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

Peffley, Al F.

Rightsizing LISA

The LISA science requirements and conceptual design have been fairly stable for over a decade. In the interest of reducing costs, the LISA Project at NASA has looked for simplifications of the architecture, at downsizing of subsystems, and at descopes of the entire mission. This is a natural activity of the formulation phase, and one that is particularly timely in the current NASA budgetary context. There is, and will continue to be, enormous pressure for cost reduction from both ESA and NASA, reviewers and the broader research community. Here, we review the rationale for the baseline architecture. and report recent efforts to find simplifications and other reductions that might lead to savings. A few possible simplifications have been found in the LISA baseline architecture. In the interest of exploring cost sensitivity, one moderate and one aggressive descope have been evaluated; the cost savings are modest and the loss of science is not.

Stebbins, Robin T.

Rightsizing LISA

The LISA science requirements and conceptual design have been fairly stable for over a decade. In the interest of reducing costs, the LISA Project at NASA has looked for simplifications of the architecture, at downsizing of subsystems, and at descopes of the entire mission. This is a natural activity of the formulation phase, and one that is particularly timely in the current NASA budgetary context. There is, and will continue to be, enormous pressure for cost reduction from both ESA and NASA, reviewers and the broader research community. Here, the rationale for the baseline architecture is reviewed, and recent efforts to find simplifications and other reductions that might lead to savings are reported. A few possible simplifications have been found in the LISA baseline architecture. In the interest of exploring cost sensitivity, one moderate and one aggressive descope have been evaluated; the cost savings are modest and the loss of science is not.

Stebbins, Robin T.

Silica RSI for Application to the Shuttle Orbiter

Silica reusable surface insulation is analyzed for its cold soak properties, bond properties at low temperature, gap and step heating effects, and aerodynamic surface roughness effects to determine space shuttle weight and cost sensitivity to structure subsystem weights. Computerized simulation studies show that total program cost savings of silica (vs. mullite) exceed thermal protection system design and development costs and that an early introduction of silica increases total program cost savings.

Forsberg, K. J.

Current economic and sensitivity analysis for ID slicing of 4 inch and 6 inch diameter silicon ingots for photovoltaic applications

The economics and sensitivities of slicing large diameter silicon ingots for photovoltaic applications were examined. Current economics and slicing add on cost sensitivities are calculated using variable parameters for blade life, slicing yield, and slice cutting speed. It is indicated that cutting speed has the biggest impact on slicing add on cost, followed by slicing yield, and by blade life as the blade life increases.

Roberts, E. G.

A comparative analysis of area navigation systems in general aviation

Radio navigation systems which offer the capabilities of area navigation to general aviation operators are discussed. The systems considered are: (1) the VORTAC system, (2) the Loran-C system, and (3) the Differential Omega system. The inital analyses are directed toward a comparison of the systems with respect to their compliance to specified performance parameters and to the cost effectiveness of each system in relation to those specifications. Further analyses lead to the development of system cost sensitivity charts, and the employment of these charts allows conclusions to be drawn relative to the cost-effectiveness of the candidate navigation system.

Dodge, S. M.

Designing for cost

Parametric cost analysis is presently defined as the generation and application of equations to cost analysis; equations defining cost as a function of system-design parameters, performance parameters, or engineering process parameters, constitute a valuable tool for design-to-cost efforts. Cost sensitivity is expressed through the partial derivatives of these functions, furnishing insight into the magnitude and direction of cost change for given parameter changes. The robust design method thus obtained is a systematic and efficient approach for determining the near-optimum set of design parameters for cost, which highlights important factors affecting operation and performance as well as cost.

Dean, Edwin B.

Design study of wind turbines 50 kW to 3000 kW for electric utility applications. Volume 1: Summary report

Wind turbine configurations that would lead to generation of electrical power in a cost effective manner were considered. All possible overall system configurationss, operating modes, and sybsystem concepts were evaluated for both technical feasibility and compatibility with utility networks, as well as for economic attractiveness. A design optimization computer code was developed to determine the cost sensitivity of the various design features, and thus establish the configuration and design conditions that would minimize the generated energy costs. The preliminary designs of both a 500 kW unit and a 1500 kW unit operating in a 12 mph and 18 mph median wind speed respectively, were developed. The rationale employed and the key findings are summarized.

Source record

Design study of wind turbines 50 kW to 3000 kW for electric utility applications. Volume 2: Analysis and design

All possible overall system configurations, operating modes, and subsystem concepts for a wind turbine configuration for cost effective generation of electrical power were evaluated for both technical feasibility and compatibility with utility networks, as well as for economic attractiveness. A design optimization computer code was developed to determine the cost sensitivity of the various design features, and thus establish the configuration and design conditions that would minimize the generated energy costs. The preliminary designs of both a 500 kW unit and a 1500 kW unit operating in a 12 mph and 18 mph median wind speed respectively, were developed. The various design features and components evaluated are described, and the rationale employed to select the final design configuration is given. All pertinent technical performance data and component cost data is included. The costs of all major subassemblies are estimated and the resultant energy costs for both the 500 kW and 1500 kW units are calculated.

Source record

ID wafering technology

Improvements in ID saws leading to lower costs for producing silicon wafers for solar cells are described. The relationships between crystal size and blade size and between the length of time it takes to slice a wafer and wafer thickness are discussed. The influence of ingot production methods on wafering performance is considered. A cost sensitivity analysis of slicing a 10 cm square ingot and economic analyses of slicing a four inch and a six inch ingot are presented. A wafering cost model based on the IPEG 2 is given.

Aharonyan, P.

Computer simulation of the thermal environment of large-scale integrated circuits - Computer time-saving techniques.

This paper is concerned with the computer costs for both the steady-state and transient thermal responses of large-scale integrated circuits (LSI) when metal is present within the substrate. For the more cost-sensitive transient case, an extrapolation technique for computer time savings is compared with the accuracy loss in this study. This approach could be useful for design-cost planning.

Thompson, R. R.