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At least 19 records

General methodology: Costing, budgeting, and techniques for benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness analysis

The general concepts of costing, budgeting, and benefit-cost ratio and cost-effectiveness analysis are discussed. The three common methods of costing are presented. Budgeting distributions are discussed. The use of discounting procedures is outlined. The benefit-cost ratio and cost-effectiveness analysis is defined and their current application to NASA planning is pointed out. Specific practices and techniques are discussed, and actual costing and budgeting procedures are outlined. The recommended method of calculating benefit-cost ratios is described. A standardized method of cost-effectiveness analysis and long-range planning are also discussed.

Stretchberry, D. M.

CPUC Avoided Transmission and Distribution Cost Study to Support the Avoided Cost Calculator: Avoided Transmission Costs Draft Research Plan

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) have been contracted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Energy Division (ED) to perform a study which explores and selects an improved methodology to estimate avoided electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure costs that can be attributed to the presence of distributed energy resources (DERs). PNNL is performing the study for avoided electricity transmission infrastructure costs and LBNL is performing the study for avoided electricity distribution infrastructure costs. This document summarizes CPUC’s research questions related to avoided transmission infrastructure costs and PNNL’s proposed technical approach to answer these questions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Manufacturing Cost Analysis for PEM Electrolyzers and Perspectives for Future Cost Reduction

Electrolyzer capital costs strongly influence the total levelized cost of hydrogen production and have implications for hydrogen deployment. Current electrolyzer costs are high, and large cost reductions may be needed to achieve competitive hydrogen costs and targets. Understanding pathways for cost reduction via R&D and deployment is a critical research area for informed energy planning and enabling hydrogen use. This work presents bottom-up cost estimates of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems tied to design specifications and discusses perspectives for cost reduction opportunities based on ongoing research. We use a detailed manufacturing and process model for a 1 MW PEM electrolyzer stack and balance of plant (BOP) for rigorous cost estimation. This allows for robust estimates of component and manufacturing costs and examination of key cost contributors. Stack costs are dominated by material costs such as iridium and platinum catalysts, especially at high manufacturing rates; power electronics and hydrogen purification equipment are the largest contributors to BOP cost. At higher manufacturing rates, better equipment utilization could reduce stack costs significantly, and we estimate that experience and bulk purchasing will allow for cost reductions to some BOP components. Still, many well-established BOP technologies and stack material costs are less likely to see significant cost reductions at high manufacturing rates. As such, manufacturing scale is limited in how much it can reduce electrolyzer costs, and additional advances for cost reduction may be needed to achieve cost targets. It will likely take many combined strategies to achieve significant cost reductions for electrolyzers and enable low-cost hydrogen production. We can use our manufacturing cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from the considerations described above and demonstrate pathways to lower cost electrolyzers. This allows for better understanding of cost reduction strategies and enables more informed research, development, and deployment for electrolyzers.

cost

Soft costs and EVSE – Knowledge gaps as a barrier to successful projects

There has been a recent push to increase access to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) has made significant funding available for major charging infrastructure projects along state thruways, and many state and local incentives exist for EV owners to install chargers in their homes. However, deployment of these chargers has not kept up with demand, primarily due to issues in project planning, permitting processes, and unforeseen delays. This paper serves as a review of the current understanding of these and other non-hardware costs in EV charging infrastructure projects (collectively known as “soft costs”). We found that soft costs in EV charging infrastructure projects are not well understood. Specifically, there is little agreement on how soft costs should be categorized and tracked, and less agreement still on best practices for controlling these costs and lowering barriers to infrastructure deployment. A broader review of EV charging infrastructure cost analyses shows that these costs can have significant impacts on project outcomes. EV charging infrastructure projects may be able to examine the success of the solar industry in lowering soft costs, and a similar effort may lower project costs significantly. Further work on standardizing and collecting data on EV charging infrastructure costs is required to begin addressing and controlling these costs.

32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA

Modeling the Deep Space Network costs for future space missions by using major cost drivers

This paper develops a cost model to do long range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSN) support of future space missions. The model is a function of eight major mission cost drivers such as uplink frequency upgrade, telemetry upgrade, and antenna gain/noise temperature upgrade. This paper focuses on the costs required to modify and/or enhance the DSN to prepare for supporting future space missions. Two models are derived from actual cost data from three space missions: Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. Model A makes it possible to estimate the total cost, and Model B makes it possible to estimate the time profile cost and total cost for DSN support of a similar future space mission. The models were back tested against the total cost and the time profile cost for DSN support of the three projects, and gave cost estimates which range from 17 percent below to 19 percent above actual costs for Model A, and 22.5 percent below to 17.5 percent above for Model B. The total cost Model A was also applied to estimate the total costs for DSN support of two other independent projects: Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS later became Voyager), and Viking. This model gave total cost estimates for DSN support which range from 15 percent to 4 percent above actual total costs for MJS and Viking, respectively.

Remer, Donald S.

Low cost Czochralski crystal growing technology. Near implementation of the flat plate photovoltaic cost reduction of the low cost solar array project

Equipment developed for the manufacture of over 100 kg of silicon ingot from one crucible by rechanging from another crucible is described. Attempts were made to eliminate the cost of raising the furnace temperature to 250 C above the melting point of silicon by using an RF coil to melt polycrystalline silicon rod as a means of rechanging the crucible. Microprocessor control of the straight growth process was developed and domonstrated for both 4 inch and 6 inch diameter. Both meltdown and melt stabilization processes were achieved using operator prompting through the microprocessor. The use of the RF work coil in poly rod melting as a heat sink in the accelerated growth process was unsuccessful. The total design concept for fabrication and interfacing of the total cold crucible system was completed.

Roberts, E. G.

Sensitivities of projected 1980 photovoltaic system costs to major system cost drivers

The sensitivity of projected 1990 photovoltaic (PV) system costs to major system cost drivers was examined. It includes: (1) module costs and module efficiencies; (2) area related balance of system (BOS) costs; (3) inverter costs and efficiencies; and (4) module marketing and distribution markups and system integration fees. Recent PV system cost experiences and the high costs of electricity from the systems are reviewed. The 1990 system costs are projected for five classes of PV systems, including four ground mounted 5-MWp systems and one residential 5-kWp system. System cost projections are derived by first projecting costs and efficiencies for all subsystems and components. Sensitivity analyses reveal that reductions in module cost and engineering and system integration fees seem to have the greatest potential for contributing to system cost reduction. Although module cost is clearly the prime candidate for fruitful PV research and development activities, engineering and system integration fees seem to be more amenable to reduction through appropriate choice of system size and market strategy. Increases in inverter and module efficiency yield significant benefits, especially for systems with high area related costs.

Zimmerman, L. W.

Integrated operations/payloads/fleet analysis. Volume 3: System costs. Appendix A: Program direct costs

Individualized program direct costs for each satellite program are presented. This breakdown provides the activity level dependent costs for each satellite program. The activity level dependent costs, or, more simply, program direct costs, are comprised of the total payload costs (as these costs are strictly program dependent) and the direct launch vehicle costs. Only those incremental launch vehicle costs associated directly with the satellite program are considered. For expendable launch vehicles the direct costs include the vehicle investment hardware costs and the launch operations costs. For the reusable STS vehicles the direct costs include only the launch operations, recovery operations, command and control, vehicle maintenance, and propellant support. The costs associated with amortization of reusable vehicle investment, RDT&E range support, etc., are not included.

Source record

An Exploratory Study of Cost Engineering in Axiomatic Design: Creation of the Cost Model Based on an FR-DP Map

Large complex projects cost large sums of money throughout their life cycle for a variety of reasons and causes. For such large programs, the credible estimation of the project cost, a quick assessment of the cost of making changes, and the management of the project budget with effective cost reduction determine the viability of the project. Cost engineering that deals with these issues requires a rigorous method and systematic processes. This paper introduces a logical framework to a&e effective cost engineering. The framework is built upon Axiomatic Design process. The structure in the Axiomatic Design process provides a good foundation to closely tie engineering design and cost information together. The cost framework presented in this paper is a systematic link between the functional domain (FRs), physical domain (DPs), cost domain (CUs), and a task/process-based model. The FR-DP map relates a system s functional requirements to design solutions across all levels and branches of the decomposition hierarchy. DPs are mapped into CUs, which provides a means to estimate the cost of design solutions - DPs - from the cost of the physical entities in the system - CUs. The task/process model describes the iterative process ot-developing each of the CUs, and is used to estimate the cost of CUs. By linking the four domains, this framework provides a superior traceability from requirements to cost information.

Lee, Taesik

A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs

A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

Remer, D. S.

Validated Feasibility Study of Integrally Stiffened Metallic Fuselage Panels for Reducing Manufacturing Costs: Cost Assessment of Manufacturing/Design Concepts

The objective of the Integral Airframe Structures (IAS) program was to demonstrate, for an integrally stiffened structural concept, performance and weight equal to "built-up" structure with lower manufacturing cost. This report presents results of the cost assessment for several design configuration/manufacturing method combinations. The attributes of various cost analysis models were evaluated and COSTRAN selected for this study. A process/design cost evaluation matrix was developed based on material, forming, machining, and assembly of structural sub-elements and assembled structure. A hybrid design, made from high-speed machined extruded frames that are mechanically fastened to high-speed machined plate skin/stringer panels, was identified as the most cost-effective manufacturing solution. Recurring labor and material costs of the hybrid design are up to 61 percent less than the current built-up technology baseline. This would correspond to a total cost reduction of $1.7 million per ship set for a 777-sized airplane. However, there are important outstanding issues with regard to the cost of capacity of high technology machinery, and the ability to cost-effectively provide surface finish acceptable to the commercial aircraft industry. The projected high raw material cost of large extrusions also played an important role in the trade-off between plate and extruded concepts.

Metschan, S.

Rapid Cost Assessment of Space Mission Concepts Through Application of Complexity-Based Cost Indices

This slide presentation reviews the development of a rapid cost assessment models for evaluation of exploration missions through the application of complexity based cost indices. In Fall of 2004, NASA began developing 13 documents, known as "strategic roadmaps," intended to outline a strategy for space exploration over the next 30 years. The Third Strategic Roadmap, The Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration, focused on strategy for robotic exploration of the Solar System. Development of the Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration led to the investigation of a large variety of missions. However, the necessity of planning around scientific inquiry and budgetary constraints made it necessary for the roadmap development team to evaluate potential missions not only for scientific return but also cost. Performing detailed cost studies for each of the large number of missions was impractical given the time constraints involved and lack of detailed mission studies; so a method of rapid cost assessment was developed by us to allow preliminary analysis. It has been noted that there is a strong correlation between complexity and cost and schedule of planetary missions. While these correlations were made after missions had been built and flown (successfully or otherwise), it seemed likely that a similar approach could provide at least some relative cost ranking. Cost estimation relationships (CERs) have been developed based on subsystem design choices. These CERs required more detailed information than available, forcing the team to adopt a more high level approach. Costing by analogy has been developed for small satellites, however, planetary exploration missions provide such varying spacecraft requirements that there is a lack of adequately comparable missions that can be used for analogy.

cost estimation

Cost of photovoltaic energy systems as determined by balance-of-system costs

The effect of the balance-of-system (BOS), i.e., the total system less the modules, on photo-voltaic energy system costs is discussed for multikilowatt, flat-plate systems. Present BOS costs are in the range of 10 to 16 dollars per peak watt (1978 dollars). BOS costs represent approximately 50% of total system cost. The possibility of future BOS cost reduction is examined. It is concluded that, given the nature of BOS costs and the lack of comprehensive national effort focussed on cost reduction, it is unlikely that BOS costs will decline greatly in the next several years. This prognosis is contrasted with the expectations of the Department of Energy National Photovoltaic Program goals and pending legislation in the Congress which require a BOS cost reduction of an order of magnitude or more by the mid-1980s.

Rosenblum, L.

Modeling preparation costs for space missions by using major cost drivers

A model is suggested for making long range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSN) support of future space missions. The model is a function of major mission cost drivers, such as maintenance and operations, downlink frequency upgrade, uplink frequency upgrade, telemetry upgrade, antenna gain/noise temperature, radiometric accuracy upgrade, radio science upgrade, and very long baseline interferometry. The model is derived from actual cost data from three space missions: Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. The model allows one to estimate the total cost and the cost over time of a similar future space mission. The model was back tested against the three projects and gave cost estimates that range from 17 pct. below to 19 pct. above actual mission preparation costs. The model was also compared with two other independent projects: Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS later became Voyager) and Viking. The model gave total preparation cost estimates that range from 15 pct. above to 4 pct. below actual total preparation costs for MJS and Viking, respectively.

Sherif, J. S.

A model for the cost of doing a cost estimate

A model for estimating the cost required to do a cost estimate for Deep Space Network (DSN) projects that range from $0.1 to $100 million is presented. The cost of the cost estimate in thousands of dollars, C(sub E), is found to be approximately given by C(sub E) = K((C(sub p))(sup 0.35)) where C(sub p) is the cost of the project being estimated in millions of dollars and K is a constant depending on the accuracy of the estimate. For an order-of-magnitude estimate, K = 24; for a budget estimate, K = 60; and for a definitive estimate, K = 115. That is, for a specific project, the cost of doing a budget estimate is about 2.5 times as much as that for an order-of-magnitude estimate, and a definitive estimate costs about twice as much as a budget estimate. Use of this model should help provide the level of resources required for doing cost estimates and, as a result, provide insights towards more accurate estimates with less potential for cost overruns.

Remer, D. S.

The cost of doing a cost estimate

A model for estimating the cost required to do a cost estimate for Deep Space Network (DSN) projects that range from $0.1 to $100 million is presented. The cost of the cost estimate in thousands of dollars, C(sub E), is found to be approximately given by C(sub E) = K(/C(sub p)/(sup 0.35)) where C(sub p) is the cost of the project being estimated in millions of dollars and K is a constant depending on the accuracy of the estimate. For an order-of-magnitude estimate, K = 24; for a budget estimate, K = 60; and for a definitive estimate, K = 115. That is, for a specific project, the cost of doing a budget estimate is about 2.5 times as much as that for an order-of-magnitude estimate, and a definitive estimate costs about twice as much as a budget estimate. Use of this model should help provide the level of resources required for doing cost estimates and, as a result, provide insights towards more accurate estimates with less potential for cost overruns.

Remer, Donald S.

NE-COST plug-in: Expanding ACCERT's Capabilities for Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

The Algorithm for the Capital Cost Estimation of Reactor Technologies (ACCERT) is a structured methodology and software tool designed to simplify and standardize cost estimation for nuclear reactor technologies [1]. By utilizing a relational database structure and modular cost estimation algorithms, ACCERT delivers a robust, flexible, and scalable framework for evaluating costs across various reactor types and configurations [2]. The recent integration of the NE-COST plugin further expands ACCERT’s scope by introducing detailed life-cycle cost modeling and probabilistic analysis of uncertainties. This addition enables users to evaluate costs across front-end processes such as uranium enrichment and fabrication, as well as back-end activities including waste disposal and geologic storage. Through Monte Carlo statistical cost simulations, the plugin provides probabilistic insights into cost ranges, offering critical decision-making support for stakeholders including reactor developers, policymakers, and researchers.

Zhou, Jia

The use of parametric cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft systems in establishing initial Design to Cost Targets

This paper provides a brief overview of Design to Cost (DTC). Problems inherent in attempting to estimate costs are discussed, along with techniques and types of models that have been developed to estimate aircraft costs. A set of cost estimating relationships that estimate the total production cost of commercial and military transport aircraft at the systems level is presented and the manner in which these equations might be used effectively in developing initial DTC targets is indicated. The principal point made in this paper is that, by using a disagregated set of equations to estimate transport aircraft costs at the systems level, reasonably accurate preliminary cost estimates may be achieved. These estimates may serve directly as initial DTC targets, or adjustments may be made to the estimates obtained for some of the systems to estimate the production cost impact of alternative designs or manufacturing technologies. The relative ease by which estimates may be made with this model, the flexibility it provides by being disaggregated, and the accuracy of the estimates it provides make it a unique and useful tool in establishing initial DTC targets.

Beltramo, M. N.