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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting resistive wall mode stability in NSTX through balanced random forests and counterfactual explanations

Abstract Recent progress in the disruption event characterization and forecasting framework has shown that machine learning guided by physics theory can be easily implemented as a supporting tool for fast computations of ideal stability properties of spherical tokamak plasmas. In order to extend that idea, a customized random forest (RF) classifier that takes into account imbalances in the training data is hereby employed to predict resistive wall mode (RWM) stability for a set of high beta discharges from the NSTX spherical tokamak. More specifically, with this approach each tree in the forest is trained on samples that are balanced via a user-defined over/under-sampler. The proposed approach outperforms classical cost-sensitive methods for the problem at hand, in particular when used in conjunction with a random under-sampler, while also resulting in a threefold reduction in the training time. In order to further understand the model’s decisions, a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on determinantal point processes (DPP) is generated and evaluated. Via the use of DPP, the underlying RF model infers that the presence of hypothetical magnetohydrodynamic activity would have prevented the RWM from concurrently going unstable, which is a counterfactual that is indeed expected by prior physics knowledge. Given that this result emerges from the data-driven RF classifier and the use of counterfactuals without hand-crafted embedding of prior physics intuition, it motivates the usage of counterfactuals to simulate real-time control by generating the β N levels that would have kept the RWM stable for a set of unstable discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging Structured Biological Knowledge for Counterfactual Inference: A Case Study of Viral Pathogenesis

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on exogenous variables, and functional assignments. Specifying such models can be extremely difficult in practice. The process requires substantial domain expertise, and does not scale easily to large systems, multiple systems, or novel system modifications. At the same time, many application domains, such as molecular biology, are rich in structured causal knowledge that is qualitative in nature. This manuscript proposes a general approach for querying a causal knowledge graph with a causal question and converting the qualitative result into a quantitative structural causal model that can learn from data to answer the question. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility, accuracy and versatility of this approach using two case studies in systems biology. The first demonstrates the appropriateness of the underlying assumptions and the accuracy of the results. The second demonstrates the versatility of the approach by querying a knowledge base for the molecular determinants of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced cytokine storm and performing counterfactual inference to predict the causal effect of medical countermeasures for severely ill COVID-19 patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Training calibration-based counterfactual explainers for deep learning models in medical image analysis

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods in healthcare is coupled with the critical need for techniques to rigorously introspect models and thereby ensure that they behave reliably. This has led to the design of explainable AI techniques that uncover the relationships between discernible data signatures and model predictions. In this context, counterfactual explanations that synthesize small, interpretable changes to a given query while producing desired changes in model predictions have become popular. This under-constrained, inverse problem is vulnerable to introducing irrelevant feature manipulations, particularly when the model’s predictions are not well-calibrated. Hence, in this paper, we propose the TraCE (training calibration-based explainers) technique, which utilizes a novel uncertainty-based interval calibration strategy for reliably synthesizing counterfactuals. Given the wide-spread adoption of machine-learned solutions in radiology, our study focuses on deep models used for identifying anomalies in chest X-ray images. Using rigorous empirical studies, we demonstrate the superiority of TraCE explanations over several state-of-the-art baseline approaches, in terms of several widely adopted evaluation metrics. Our findings show that TraCE can be used to obtain a holistic understanding of deep models by enabling progressive exploration of decision boundaries, to detect shortcuts, and to infer relationships between patient attributes and disease severity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biomass for Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) Counterfactual Decision Tree

Counterfactual is the term used to describe a "business-as-usual" scenario which used as a baseline to compare against a new project, allowing the calculation of net impacts for a life cycle analysis (LCA). The choice of counterfactual is critical for determining the results from LCA and must be carefully justified to ensure a fair and accurate comparison. Using forest residues as an example, this decision tree illustrates decision points to be considered for sustainable biomass sourcing and provides a framework for estimating the carbon emissions or storage under the "business-as-usual” scenarios for biomass otherwise destined for use in Biomass for Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) projects.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

CoMTE: Counterfactual Explanations for Supervised Machine Learning Frameworks on Multivariate Time Series Data

CoMTE is a novel explainability technique that provides counterfactual explanations for supervised machine learning frameworks on multivariate time series data. CoMTE outperforms state-of-the-art explainability methods on several different machine learning frameworks and data sets in comprehensibility and robustness. CoMTE can be used to debug machine learning frameworks and gain a better understanding of the underlying multivariate time series data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-1686 O

Leung, VitusJ.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial inequities in access to medications for treatment of opioid use disorder highlight scarcity of methadone providers under counterfactual scenarios

Access to treatment and medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is essential in reducing opioid use and associated behavioral risks, such as syringe sharing among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Syringe sharing among PWID carries high risk of transmission of serious infections such as hepatitis C and HIV. MOUD resources, such as methadone provider clinics, however, are often unavailable to PWID due to barriers like long travel distance to the nearest methadone provider and the required frequency of clinic visits. The goal of this study is to examine the uncertainty in the effects of travel distance in initiating and continuing methadone treatment and how these interact with different spatial distributions of methadone providers to impact co-injection (syringe sharing) risks. A baseline scenario of spatial access was established using the existing locations of methadone providers in a geographical area of metropolitan Chicago, Illinois, USA. Next, different counterfactual scenarios redistributed the locations of methadone providers in this geographic area according to the densities of both the general adult population and according to the PWID population per zip code. We define different reasonable methadone access assumptions as the combinations of short, medium, and long travel distance preferences combined with three urban/suburban travel distance preference. Our modeling results show that when there is a low travel distance preference for accessing methadone providers, distributing providers near areas that have the greatest need (defined by density of PWID) is best at reducing syringe sharing behaviors. However, this strategy also decreases access across suburban locales, posing even greater difficulty in regions with fewer transit options and providers. As such, without an adequate number of providers to give equitable coverage across the region, spatial distribution cannot be optimized to provide equitable access to all PWID. Our study has important implications for increasing interest in methadone as a resurgent treatment for MOUD in the United States and for guiding policy toward improving access to MOUD among PWID.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RectifHyd Version 2.0: Historical and counterfactual-climatological hydropower monthly generation totals for CONUS plants, 1980 – 2019

This dataset will contain the following files: - RectifHydV2.zip – the RectifHydV2 dataset, split into two files: o RectifHydV2_Actual_MWh.csv: Estimated actual monthly net generation from 590 Hydropower Plants (>10MW nameplate) in CONUS, 1980 – 2019 o RectifHydV2_Counterfactual_MWh.csv: Counterfactual (climate-only) monthly net generation from 590 Hydropower Plants (>10MW nameplate) in CONUS, 1980 – 2019 - RectifHydV2_code.zip: Full data processing pipeline, coded using R {targets} framework. This is a snapshot release (v1.0) of the code repository stored at https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/rectifhydv2 - RectifHydV2_inputs.zip: Complete set of input data used to create RectifHydV2, organized for direct entry into “/data/” directory of the RectifHydV2 reproducible data pipeline - RectifHydV2_misc.zip: - RectifHydV2_dailyRelease.csv

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Counterfactuals to Assess Effects to Species and Systems from Renewable Energy Development

Renewable energy production, mostly via wind, solar, and biofuels, is central to goals worldwide to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate anthropogenic climate change (IPCC, 2014; Portner et al., 2021). Nevertheless, adverse impacts to natural systems, especially fatalities of wildlife and alteration of habitat, are key challenges for renewable energy production (Allison et al., 2019; Katzner et al., 2019).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

CLEANing the Reward: Counterfactual Actions to Remove Exploratory Action Noise in Multiagent Learning

Learning in multiagent systems can be slow because agents must learn both how to behave in a complex environment and how to account for the actions of other agents. The inability of an agent to distinguish between the true environmental dynamics and those caused by the stochastic exploratory actions of other agents creates noise in each agent's reward signal. This learning noise can have unforeseen and often undesirable effects on the resultant system performance. We define such noise as exploratory action noise, demonstrate the critical impact it can have on the learning process in multiagent settings, and introduce a reward structure to effectively remove such noise from each agent's reward signal. In particular, we introduce Coordinated Learning without Exploratory Action Noise (CLEAN) rewards and empirically demonstrate their benefits

Reinforcement Learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmark estimate of the effect of anthropogenic emissions on the ocean surface

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic emissions in the occurrence of extreme weather often use a method that compares simulations of atmospheric climate models run under a factual scenario of historical boundary conditions observed during the period of the event against simulations run under a counterfactual scenario of what those boundary conditions might naturally have been over that same period in the absence of anthropogenic emissions. A particular requirement for this experiment design is an accurate estimation of ocean surface boundary conditions for use by the counterfactual natural simulations. Here we use output from the CMIP5 multi‐climate‐model archive to develop a robust estimate of sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions for use in counterfactual natural simulations, intended as a benchmark estimate to facilitate comparison across climate models and across studies. This development includes tests to ensure that the final estimate is stable from year‐to‐year and stable against other perturbations to the methodology, as well as consideration of the strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other available attributable warming estimates. While this estimate is tailored specifically for the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project, it can be used by related projects as well.

Stone, Dáithí A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

QUICR-learning for Multi-Agent Coordination

Coordinating multiple agents that need to perform a sequence of actions to maximize a system level reward requires solving two distinct credit assignment problems. First, credit must be assigned for an action taken at time step t that results in a reward at time step t > t. Second, credit must be assigned for the contribution of agent i to the overall system performance. The first credit assignment problem is typically addressed with temporal difference methods such as Q-learning. The second credit assignment problem is typically addressed by creating custom reward functions. To address both credit assignment problems simultaneously, we propose the "Q Updates with Immediate Counterfactual Rewards-learning" (QUICR-learning) designed to improve both the convergence properties and performance of Q-learning in large multi-agent problems. QUICR-learning is based on previous work on single-time-step counterfactual rewards described by the collectives framework. Results on a traffic congestion problem shows that QUICR-learning is significantly better than a Q-learner using collectives-based (single-time-step counterfactual) rewards. In addition QUICR-learning provides significant gains over conventional and local Q-learning. Additional results on a multi-agent grid-world problem show that the improvements due to QUICR-learning are not domain specific and can provide up to a ten fold increase in performance over existing methods.

Agogino, Adrian K.↗