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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗

Integrated Metrics for County-Level Resilience Ranking Using Entropy and TOPSIS

In the face of atypical weather events, power infrastructure failures, and limited resources for resilience investment, energy decision-makers need data-driven metrics to allocate resilience investments and maximize the reduction of power outage impacts. For state-level planning, for instance, ranking the resilience of each county is key to ensuring effective distribution of resources. In such cases, resilience for each spatial unit is multifaceted and is captured by a set of indicators (i.e., metrics) that can be combined into an overall score that reduces the complexity of power outage dynamics to a single decision metric. However, weighting of these indicators is often addressed by simplifying assumptions (i.e., equal weights) or semi-subjective methods that rely on user-defined weights that can introduce biases (e.g., weighted average score). Within the disaster risk reduction and resilience engineering community, a recurring challenge in multicriteria decision-making is the objective weighting of indicators for composite indices. To address this issue, we have leveraged a Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) combined with an entropy-based weighting approach to calculated the integrated scores. This method objectively determines the importance of each metric, better discerns between spatial units (i.e., counties), and offers a more reliable ranking of counties according to their relative resilience attributes. By improving methods for integrating resilience indicators, our approach helps planners and decision-makers prioritize resources more effectively for more efficient resilience investments.

Bhusal, Narayan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗

GridCoPilot for Thermal Events: An LLM-Based Platform for Power Grid Reliability Analysis

Large Language Models show promise for translating natural language into database queries, but deploying such systems in safety-critical domains requires high reliability. We present an application of GridCoPilot to thermal event analysis (heatwaves and coldwaves) that affect power grid reliability. Our approach uses a LangChain SQL Agent to translate natural language queries into auditable SQL statements, with deterministic visualization routines that parse the structured query results. We introduce structural framing as a design principle, we integrate a NERC-region-level event library with county-level meteorology and decompose the combined data into three relational tables (event metadata, county-level event details, and a county-to-NERC subregion mapping), using prompt-guided joins to direct the model toward correct multi-table queries. For two core analytical patterns (identifying worst events by region and by region-year), the system achieved 100% SQL accuracy across all 16 NERC subregions and both event types (64 queries total). These results validate the approach for target use cases, though performance on diverse natural language formulations requires further investigation. We discuss design trade-offs, failure modes including JSON output truncation, and pathways for extending this approach to other hazard domains.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Estimated Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

In this data descriptor, we present hourly electricity demand estimates for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016 to 2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components for each county. The first is the weighted average of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. The second is the weighted average of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Biorefinery siting and sizing to achieve the US Billion‐Ton Bioeconomy vision: A case study using a gasification–Fischer–Tropsch process

Achieving a secure, abundant, and affordable energy future requires a robust and adaptable energy strategy, with bioenergy playing a pivotal role. Biomass-based energy presents a promising pathway to use domestic resources while fostering economic opportunities in rural areas. Despite the potential to source more than 1 billion dry short tons of biomass annually in the US, significant infrastructure and economic barriers hinder full utilization for energy production. This study used the Biofuel Infrastructure, Logistics, and Transportation (BILT) model to assess biorefinery siting and scale and determine the number and size of facilities required to maximize use of the US biomass potential. A spatially agnostic approach first assessed the effects of facility capacity and transportation constraints on biomass use. Then, a spatially explicit analysis integrated county-level biomass availability from the US Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report and technoeconomic assessments to evaluate different biorefinery deployment scenarios. The results indicate that an optimized mix of facility sizes is essential to leverage biomass resources fully across varying regional production densities to maximize use of the US biomass potential. Larger biorefineries or co-located smaller facilities significantly enhance biomass use while reducing costs through economies of scale. These findings underscore the importance of strategically balancing facility capacity and spatial distribution to optimize the bioenergy supply chain. In conclusion, this study provides critical insights for advancing the US bioenergy economy by aligning biorefinery deployment with biomass resource availability and economic viability.

BILT Model↗

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Who is benefiting from the dramatic decline in U.S. cancer mortality? Place-based evidence of disparities in rates of improvement

After decades of increasing cancer mortality, U.S. rates declined from 1991 to 2019, a 32% decrease. we investigated rates of cancer mortality improvement across 2954 counties and selected characteristics associated with mortality improvements. Data was 21,381,009 county-level neoplasm deaths gleaned from death certificates via CDC WONDER. Analytical techniques included GIS and Moran’s I, OLS, GWR models, and trend comparisons. Counties with the greatest improvement (reduction) in cancer mortality tended to be coastal, higher-income, metropolitan locations. OLS model (R 2 = 0.65) indicated that greatest improvements were observed in counties with higher initial mortality ($\beta =.32$) closely followed by percent urban ($\beta =.31$) and median household income ($\beta =.16$). Whereas percent Black residents ($\beta =-.06$), and percent with education beyond high school ($\beta =-.10$) was less associated on outcomes. Highest income counties were the first to experience improvement in cancer mortality, the highest rates of mortality decline, and the greatest reduction in excess deaths. Even though there was significant improvement in cancer mortality nationally, there were variations in the degree of improvement linked to county location, income, and urbanisation. These results underlie the need to expand place-based initiatives designed to advance cancer health and more equitable improvements in cancer mortality outcomes.

developing world↗

Quantifying mean, variability, and uncertainty in indoor radon exposure in Pennsylvania using random forest and quantile regression forest models

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a serious health risk as the primary cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Despite the well-known adverse association with health outcomes, current radon exposure assessments are limited to county-level or average-level estimates, which fail to capture regional variability. This study uses Machine Learning models, including Random Forest (RF) and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), to estimate the indoor radon concentrations at the ZCTA (Zip code tabulation area)-level and characterize uncertainties in model estimates. Incorporating geological, meteorological, and building-specific data, the models aim to improve radon risk assessment by capturing mean exposure, variability, and extreme concentration levels. Processed radon test data (n = 718,111) were analyzed using average, variability, and quantile prediction methods. Models that estimate the average radon exposure at the ZCTA-level can yield promising model-fit results, but they do not capture the underlying variability of indoor radon exposure within a ZCTA. We utilize volatility analyses to identify characteristics indicative of high variability of indoor radon exposure. We also show that a QRF model can be used to estimate upper quantiles of residential radon exposure, thereby uncovering localized areas of elevated exposure that were not apparent in mean estimates. The results highlighted the need for a deep characterization of exposure risk and show that regions with moderate average exposure levels could still harbor extreme outliers with implications for evaluating health risks. Utilizing multiple radon exposure models allows for a deeper characterization of radon risk within a geographic area and can better identify high-risk areas. The results from this study provide a foundation for developing mitigation strategies and examining associations between radon exposure and health outcomes at fine scales. Future research should extend the geographic scope and incorporate additional environmental risk factors to establish a comprehensive framework for risk assessment.

Lee, Heechan [ORNL]↗

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗

HexWeather: Hexagonal Spatial Data Aggregation for Weather-Driven Grid Resilience Analysis

Extreme weather accounts for over 8 0 % of major U.S. power outages since 2000, highlighting the need for spatial tools that align weather data with the irregular boundaries of electric infrastructure. This paper introduces HexWeather, a modular, resolution-aware framework for aggregating historical and forecasted weather data using Uber's H3 hexagonal spatial indexing system. Unlike traditional methods that rely on state or county-level grids, HexWeather enables weather analysis across custom geographies such as utility service areas where public datasets are often unavailable or misaligned. Using Open-Meteo data, we evaluate how H3 resolution affects anomaly detection, spatial variability, and forecast uncertainty across three scales: state, county, and utility. Results show that while coarse resolutions suffice for broad trend tracking, finer resolutions are essential for identifying localized variability and operational risks. By applying metrics like Z-score standard deviation and interquartile range, HexWeather quantifies the spatial spread of both historical anomalies and forecasted conditions, allowing users to assess resolution adequacy for each analysis. This framework supports rapid weather data reuse, reproducible anomaly detection, and predictive modeling for infrastructure resilience. By bridging spatial misalignment in traditional datasets and enabling retrospective and forward-looking analysis within the same pipeline, HexWeather lays the groundwork for better post event analysis, outage prediction, and resilience planning.

Morris, Jacob [ORNL]↗

Scalable and Secure Power Outage Data Reporting: A Hexagonal Geospatial Approach

Power outages disrupt critical infrastructure and cause billions of dollars in economic losses annually in the United States. Accurate and granular outage reporting is vital for effective restoration and mitigation. This paper examines the integration of the Hexagonal Hierarchical Geospatial Indexing System (H3) to enhance power outage reporting, leveraging its uniform grid structure, scalable resolutions, and support for privacy-preserving analysis. Using high-resolution LandScan Global population data and K-anonymization techniques, this work achieves a balance between data granularity and privacy. Results show that lower privacy thresholds (e.g., K-anonymity = 2) enable higher resolution, while stricter thresholds (e.g., >15 people per hex) reduce granularity, potentially affecting localized responses. State-and county-level resolution case studies demonstrate H3’s adaptability and the trade-offs between precision and privacy. The proposed H3-based framework offers a scalable and efficient solution for geospatial data integration within the energy sector, such as outage data, aiding utilities and regulators in improving resilience and response efforts, particularly in disaster-prone regions.

Ahmad, Nasir [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000150677368)↗

EAGLE-I County Customer Dataset Fall 2025

This dataset provides a combination of modeled and collected county-level electric customer counts derived from 2023 EIA-861 utility customer data, 2021 HIFLD electric retail service territory boundaries, 2021 LandScan population estimates, and 2025 EAGLE-I customer outages. The dataset details county FIPS code, number of customers, and customer type (modeled, collected, mixed). Outage data in included for all 50 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia (excluding other U.S. territories).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2022 Central California Travel Study

# 2022 Central California Travel Study The 2022 Central California Travel Study collected demographic and travel pattern information to better understand household travel behavior in the state’s San Joaquin Valley region. ## Data Collection Agency The Fresno Council of Governments conducted the household travel study in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare counties in California. ## Survey Methodology The two-part study consisted of a survey and a travel diary. The survey gathered data on household demographic composition and typical travel behaviors. The travel diary gathered individual travel data during a specified travel period for all members of a given household. ## Travel Diary Methods Households with smartphones were encouraged to complete their travel diaries using the rMove smartphone app for up to seven consecutive days. Households without smartphones or those unwilling to participate via smartphone completed their travel diaries online (using the web-version of rMove) or by calling the survey call center. These households reported travel for one day (Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday). ## Recruitment Sampling Methods The majority of the recruitment was conducted via address-based sampling, a type of probability sampling, with a focus on reaching county-level targets in collaboration with metropolitan planning organizations in the region. Supplemental sampling methods, primarily non-probability, were employed during all waves of data collection to improve survey representation. The supplemental sample included targeted outreach to hard-to-survey populations via transit rider email lists; local housing authorities; Nichols Research, a California-based market research firm; and the Ipsos™ KnowledgePanel, an online random probability panel. See the documentation for more information about sampling and weighting. ## Survey Records, Data, and Documentation In total, 7,406 households completed 19,084 surveys representing 150,012 trips across 42,567 person-days.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗