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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The two-point correlation function covariance with fewer mocks

We present FITCOV an approach for accurate estimation of the covariance of two-point correlation functions that requires fewer mocks than the standard mock-based covariance. This can be achieved by dividing a set of mocks into jackknife regions and fitting the correction term first introduced in Mohammad & Percival (2022), such that the mean of the jackknife covariances corresponds to the one from the mocks. This extends the model beyond the shot-noise limited regime, allowing it to be used for denser samples of galaxies. We test the performance of our fitted jackknife approach, both in terms of accuracy and precision, using lognormal mocks with varying densities and approximate EZmocks mimicking the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument LRG and ELG samples in the redshift range of z = [0.8, 1.1]. We find that the Mohammad–Percival correction produces a bias in the two-point correlation function covariance matrix that grows with number density and that our fitted jackknife approach does not. We also study the effect of the covariance on the uncertainty of cosmological parameters by performing a full-shape analysis. We demonstrate that our fitted jackknife approach based on 25 mocks can recover unbiased and as precise cosmological parameters as the ones obtained from a covariance matrix based on 1000 or 1500 mocks, while the Mohammad–Percival correction produces uncertainties that are twice as large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error source—global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correlation Calculations for the Russian Pu Metal Fast Experiments

Nuclear criticality experiments are often conducted in campaigns with multiple variations. These experiments reuse the same basic components, like the fuel, moderator, or positioning machines. The components have uncertainties in their geometry and composition that propagate to models of the experiments. Shared components create shared uncertainty between the $k_{eff}$ of benchmarks. The shared uncertainty is commonly quantified with a covariance, or correlation coefficient. These covariances can impact criticality safety and nuclear data validation applications. While benchmark evaluations tabulate an experiment’s uncertainty, they often lack a detailed calculation of correlations between experiments. Even some very commonly used benchmarks, like the Russian Pu Metal Fast (PMF) experiments, have missing correlations. This paper presents our approach to calculate the correlations for five of the Russian PMF experiments. The experiments share hemispherical Pu shells that induce a correlation between modeled $k_{eff}$ values. We estimated the correlations with simplified and detailed models of the experiments through linear-perturbation theory. The correlations between the experiments vary significantly between the detailed vs. simplified models. We also investigate how the correlations affect validation metrics of the experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Computation of the factorized error covariance of the difference between correlated estimators

A state estimation problem where some of the measurements may be common to two or more data sets is considered. Two approaches for computing the error covariance of the difference between filtered estimates (for each data set) are discussed. The first algorithm is based on postprocessing of the Kalman gain profiles of two correlated estimators. It uses UD factors of the covariance of the relative error. The second algorithm uses a square root information filter applied to relative error analysis. In the absence of process noise, the square root information filter is computationally more efficient and more flexible than the Kalman gain (covariance update) method. Both the algorithms (covariance and information matrix based) are applied to a Venus orbiter simulation, and their performances are compared.

Wolff, Peter J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monte Carlo Perturbation Analysis of Fuel Temperature Variations in the MCNP Model of the Annular Core Research Reactor

The Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR) Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) model is used by ACRR reactor operators and experiment designers at Sandia National Laboratories for a variety of computational calculations ranging from reactor kinetics parameter estimates and safety analyses to experimental planning. To understand the dominant source of uncertainty within the MCNP model, perturbations in temperature were applied to individual ACRR MCNP fuel rods. Fuel rod temperatures were randomly sampled from a uniform distribution from operational temperatures to quantify temperature-related uncertainty effects. Stochastic mixing was used to blend the cross sections of the desired temperatures using the MCNP continuous and Thermal Neutron Scattering Treatment [S(α,β)] libraries in ENDF/B-VII.1. Furthermore, this uncertainty analysis produced a 640 row × 640 column correlation and covariance matrix of the neutron energy spectra. Positive covariance was produced around the 1-MeV region and the 0.2-eV region. Correlation was found in the thermal and fast energy regions, but no correlation was observed in the slowing-down energy region because interactions in this region are not dominated by fuel.

ACRR↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for two-point correlation function for early DESI data

ABSTRACT We present an extended validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on simulated catalogs representative of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) data collected during the initial 2 months of operations of the Stage-IV ground-based Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We run the pipeline on multiple effective Zel’dovich (EZ) mock galaxy catalogs with the corresponding cuts applied and compare the results with the mock sample covariance to assess the accuracy and its fluctuations. We propose an extension of the previously developed formalism for catalogs processed with standard reconstruction algorithms. We consider methods for comparing covariance matrices in detail, highlighting their interpretation and statistical properties caused by sample variance, in particular, non-trivial expectation values of certain metrics even when the external covariance estimate is perfect. With improved mocks and validation techniques, we confirm a good agreement between our predictions and sample covariance. This allows one to generate covariance matrices for comparable data sets without the need to create numerous mock galaxy catalogs with matching clustering, only requiring 2PCF measurements from the data itself. The code used in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/oliverphilcox/RascalC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Semi-analytical covariance matrices for two-point correlation function for DESI 2024 data

We present an optimized way of producing the fast semi-analytical covariance matrices for the Legendre moments of the two-point correlation function, taking into account survey geometry and mimicking the non-Gaussian effects. We validate the approach on simulated (mock) catalogs for different galaxy types, representative of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1, used in 2024 analyses. We find only a few percent differences between the mock sample covariance matrix and our results, which can be expected given the approximate nature of the mocks, although we do identify discrepancies between the shot-noise properties of the DESI fiber assignment algorithm and the faster approximation (emulator) used in the mocks. Importantly, we find a close agreement (≤ 8% relative differences) in the projected errorbars for distance scale parameters for the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements. This confirms our method as an attractive alternative to simulation-based covariance matrices, especially for non-standard models or galaxy sample selections, making it particularly relevant to the broad current and future analyses of DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updated neutrino mass constraints from galaxy clustering and CMB lensing-galaxy cross-correlation measurements

In this work, we revisit cosmological constraints on the sum of the neutrino masses Σm v from a combination of full-shape BOSS galaxy clustering [P(k)] data and measurements of the cross-correlation between Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing convergence and BOSS galaxy overdensity maps [$C_{l}^{kg}$], using a simple but theoretically motivated model for the scale-dependent galaxy bias in auto- and cross-correlation measurements. We improve upon earlier related work in several respects, particularly through a more accurate treatment of the correlation and covariance between P(k) and $C_{l}^{kg}$ measurements. When combining these measurements with Planck CMB data, we find a 95% confidence level upper limit of Σm v sum of neutrino masses < 0.14 eV, while slightly weaker limits are obtained when including small-scale ACTPol CMB data, in agreement with our expectations. We confirm earlier findings that (once combined with CMB data) the full-shape information content is comparable to the geometrical information content in the reconstructed BAO peaks given the precision of current galaxy clustering data, discuss the physical significance of our inferred bias and shot noise parameters, and perform a number of robustness tests on our underlying model. While the inclusion of $C_{l}^{kg}$ measurements does not currently appear to lead to substantial improvements in the resulting Σm v of neutrino mass constraints, we expect the converse to be true for near-future galaxy clustering measurements, whose shape information content will eventually supersede the geometrical one.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compositional zoning of the Otowi Member of the Bandelier Tuff, Valles caldera, New Mexico, USA

The Otowi Member of the Bandelier Tuff erupted at ca. 1.60 Ma from the Valles caldera (New Mexico, USA). It consists of as much as 400 km 3 (dense rock equivalent) of strongly differentiated high-silica rhyolite and shows systematic upward variations in crystallinity, mineral chemistry, and trace element concentrations through its thickness, but the major element composition is almost constant and is near the low-pressure granite minimum. Incompatible trace elements in whole pumice fragments and glasses show well-correlated linear covariations. Upward zoning to lower abundances of incompatible trace elements is accompanied by development of overgrowths on quartz and alkali feldspar, although earlier-formed interiors of quartz and feldspar have near-constant compositions throughout the tuff, modified by cation diffusion in the case of feldspar. Melt inclusions in remnant quartz cores show diverse Pb isotope ratios, pointing to a wide range of distinct protoliths that contributed rhyolitic melt to the Otowi magma. Mineral thermometers suggest a modest temperature gradient through the melt body, perhaps of 40 °C, at the time of eruption. Chemical, textural, and mineralogical variations and volume-composition relations through the tuff are consistent with an origin for zoning by melting of a high-crystallinity cumulate layer beneath cognate supernatant liquid to produce denser, remobilized liquid of accumulative composition (i.e., the “modified mush model”). Melting may have occurred in several episodes. The latest of these episodes, probably thousands of years prior to eruption, introduced new rhyolitic liquid into the system and was associated with a thermal excursion, recorded in core compositions of pyroxene, during which much of the earlier crystal mass was dissolved. This left inherited cores and interiors of accumulated quartz and feldspar mantled with new growth having less-evolved compositions (higher Ti, Sr, and Ba). Changing solubility of zircon during cumulate melting produced a reversal of Zr concentrations. There is no clear petrologic evidence of a recharge eruption trigger; nonetheless, compositional zoning resulted mainly from repeated recharge-induced remobilization of quartz-feldspar cumulate. The Otowi system was built, evolved, and modified by several events over the course of a few hundred thousand years.

Wolff, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.

Besterfield, Glen↗
NASA NTRS1994

A quick look method of detecting water of hydration in small solar system bodies

The action of aqueous alteration of the near-subsurface material on asteroids and probably some satellites in the Solar System constitutes part of the formation history of the Solar System. The C-class asteroids (and subclasses B, G, and F) were initially believed to have undergone aqueous alteration based on their low albedos and neutral broadband visible and near-infrared colors. These spectra exhibit a sharp drop at wavelengths shorter than 0.55 microns due to a strong ferric oxide intervalence change transfer transition. This IVCT comprises multiple absorptions that are not uniquely indicative of phyllosilicates, but rather are present in the spectrum of any object containing Fe(2+) and Fe(3+) in its surface material. A definitive indication of aqueous alteration came when the broad IR absorption feature having a minimum near 3.0 microns indicative of structural hydroxyl (OH) and interlayer and and absorbed water in phyllosilicates was identified in the IR photometry of many C-class asteroids. Additional mineralogical compositional evidence of aqueously-altered asteroids has come as the result of high SNR narrowband spectrophotometry in the visible and near-infrared spectral regions taken using a CCD/spectrograph combination. An absorption feature centered at 0.7 microns indicative of an Fe(2+) - Fe(3+) charge transfer transition in oxidized iron in phyllosilicates in spectra of some low-albedo asteroids, especially C and G class, and CM2 carbonaceous chondrite meteorites was identified in the CCD spectra. The correlation and covariance of the 0.7-micron and 3.0-micron features were examined by comparing observations of asteroids common to both the CCD reflectance spectra and the 3.0-micron multicolor photometry data sets. Thirty-one pairs of observations were included in this training group. The results of the statistical study indicate that with a 95% confidence level, 84% of the objects observed either having or not having the 0.7-micron feature will correspondingly have the 3.0-micron water of hydration feature.

Vilas, F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A novel ozone sensor for various environmental applications

A small, lightweight, and fast-response ozone sensor for various environmental applications is described. At a flow rate of 100 l/min(-1) the ozone sensor has a response time of significantly better than 0.1 s with a detection limit lower than 100 pptv. The ozone sensor was successfully tested in various environmental applications, i.e. in measuring directly the vertical ozone flux onto agricultural land utilizing the eddy correlation or covariance technique and in monitoring horizontal and vertical ozone profiles in the troposphere and stratosphere.

Guesten, H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Continuum Covariance Propagation for Understanding Variance Loss in Advective Systems

Motivated by the spurious variance loss encountered during covariance propagation in atmospheric and other large-scale data assimilation systems, we consider the problem for state dynamics governed by the continuity and related hyperbolic partial differential equations. This loss of variance has been attributed to reduced-rank representations of the covariance matrix, as in ensemble methods for example, or else to the use of dissipative numerical methods. Through a combination of analytical work and numerical experiments, we demonstrate that significant variance loss, as well as gain, typically occurs during covariance propagation, even at full rank. The cause of this unusual behavior is a discontinuous change in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlation lengths become small, for instance in the vicinity of sharp gradients in the velocity field. This discontinuity in the covariance dynamics arises from hyperbolicity: the diagonal of the kernel of the covariance operator is a characteristic surface for advective dynamics. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that standard numerical methods for evolving the state are not adequate for propagating the covariance, because16they do not capture the discontinuity in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlations lengths tend to zero. Our analytical and numerical results show that this leads to significant, spurious variance loss in certain regions, and gain in others. The results suggest that developing local covariance propagation methods designed specifically to capture covariance evolution near the diagonal may prove a useful alternative to current methods of covariance propagation.

covariance propagation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

Herein, this article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗