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Results for “covariate identification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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12 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Covariate Dependent Sparse Functional Data Analysis

This study proposes a method to incorporate covariate information into sparse functional data analysis. The method aims at cases where each subject has a limited number of longitudinal measurements and is associated with static covariates. This research is motivated by several use cases in practice. One representative example is void swelling, a nuclear-specific material degradation mechanism. Void swelling is affected by many covariates, including alloy composition and irradiation type. How to accurately model the complicated joint effects of such covariates on the swelling process is the key to mitigating the effect of swelling and ensuring safe operation. Unlike most of the existing methods, the proposed method can handle high-dimensional covariates with the informative covariate identification procedure and sparse and irregularly spaced measurements, that is, does not require complete or dense observations. The main innovation of the proposed method is that we model the variation coming from covariates and the variation left conditioned on covariates, such that the functional principal component analysis and Gaussian process can be conducted in a unified manner. Further, we also propose a systematic approach to identify important covariates in the hypothesis testing context. The methodology is demonstrated on applications in nuclear engineering and healthcare and simulation studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Edgewise Structural Damping of a 2.8-MW Land-Based Wind Turbine Rotor Blade

Modern wind turbines push the predictive capabilities of state-of-the-art aero-servo-elastic tools. The existing limitations hide across the numerical tool chain and can result in serious issues, such as missing aeroelastic instabilities during the design phase. Structural damping is an input that is usually hard to estimate, but also has a major impact on the turbine behavior. In this paper, we discuss an experiment that aims to accurately quantify the structural damping characterizing the edgewise modes of modern wind turbine blades. The experiment is carried out on a 2.8-MW land-based wind turbine and features a fast yaw actuation that induces an edgewise motion on one of the three blades. The Covariant-subspace system identification (Cov-SSI) method is then used to post-process the blade root moment to estimate the short-term edgewise structural damping. Despite limitations of the Cov-SSI method, which consistently under-predicts the absolute values of damping, we observe that structural damping decreases across the first three blade edgewise modes, which is different from the stiffness-proportional damping model that assumes that structural damping increases with the modes. This paper argues that a stiffness-proportional damping model, which is implemented in most aeroelastic tools, is therefore not conservative and might hide aeroelastic instabilities that can instead appear in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Nuclear Data Correlated Through Predicting Bias in Integral Experiments via Applying Principal Component Analysis to Random Forest

ABSTRACT Nuclear data (ND) are the input data for neutron‐transport simulations to answer questions related to nuclear technologies. Subsets of ND, here > 20,000 data points, are validated with respect to thousands of criticality experiments that represent various applications on a small scale. The aim of validation with these experiments is to find errors in ND or methods. The key challenge here is that several hundreds of ND are used to simulate one integral value. Hence, one cannot clearly identify what ND are leading to bias in criticality measurements. In fact, a mistake in one nuclear‐data observable can be compensated with an error in another, and the predicted criticality value would still be predicted in agreement with experimental data. Random forest (RF) was previously employed to predict bias in criticality measurements using sensitivities of simulated criticality experiments to ND. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) metric was then applied to attribute the importance of each ND experiment and observable to bias prediction. This, however, did not highlight what ND were jointly related to predicting bias. This is important as it could inform us about where compensating errors in ND could hide. We tackle this shortcoming here by first decomposing the ND sensitivities to integral‐experiment simulations into principal components. Then we use principal component projections to predict bias via the RF and SHAP. The SHAP values and principal components are employed to reconstruct detailed SHAP values for each ND observable. We demonstrate that these extended SHAP bias predictions are more robust, less noisy, and more efficient. In addition, we show that this approach accounts for covariance in ND sensitivities and automates the identification of where compensating errors could hide in ND.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Haze–cloud correlations mediated by supersaturation fluctuations

Atmospheric aerosol particles that contain water-soluble components can absorb water vapor in humid environments and form either haze particles or cloud droplets, depending on supersaturation conditions. Laboratory and in situ measurements have shown that haze particles and cloud droplets often coexist and compete for available water vapor in shallow clouds and fogs, especially under polluted conditions. It is expected that more aerosol particles can form more haze particles and cloud droplets, so that the haze and cloud number concentrations are positively correlated. However, recent large-eddy simulations show that haze and cloud number concentration can be negatively correlated under extremely polluted conditions. Haze–cloud interactions across different environmental settings remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments in a convection cloud chamber with the same aerosol injection rate show that, as supersaturation forcing increases (i.e., changing from polluted to clean conditions), the covariance between haze and cloud droplet number concentration changes from negative to positive and finally to zero. Large-eddy simulations (LES) of the cloud chamber with a fixed supersaturation forcing but varying aerosol injection rates show a similar result for the haze–cloud correlation: near zero in clean, mean-supersaturation-dominated activation conditions; positive in moderate, supersaturation-fluctuation-influenced activation conditions; and negative in polluted, supersaturation-fluctuation-dominated activation conditions. A theoretical covariance framework was developed to interpret this behavior based on the relative magnitude and signs of the correlations between supersaturation and the populations of haze and cloud droplets. Significantly, experiments, LES, and theory all yield the same three-regime behavior for the sign of the haze–cloud covariance. Furthermore, our results show that the haze–cloud covariance remains robust and easily measurable, thereby providing a useful metric for regime identification in the atmosphere, improving regime-aware parameterizations, and informing aerosol interventions such as fog dispersion, rainfall enhancement, and albedo modification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted identification of potential sources of bias in measurements of prompt-fission neutron spectra

Unrecognized sources of uncertainty (USU) can bias the reported mean and/or covariance of experimental nuclear data. These biases, in turn, can propagate through evaluated nuclear data to application simulations or may poorly inform nuclear theory that is fitted to the experimental data. Such unknown sources of bias must be tied to the inherent physical constituents of the measurements such as the characteristics of a detector response or a background reduction technique. Here, in this article, a sparse Bayesian learning model is used to support experts in their efforts to identify and characterize USU in experimental prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) for spontaneous fissioning of 252 Cf by linking observed biases to features of the measurement system. Three different bias components were found. The first acts as a verification case for the algorithm as it identifies a bias coming from a well-known source related to the use of 6 Li in the neutron detection system. The second two cases demonstrate how this method can benefit the evaluation of experimental nuclear data by identifying, quantifying, and relating unknown biases to potential causes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Characterization of Hyper-Local Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Sources

Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are often characterized using stationary, tower-based sensors. Ground based sensors reside in the turbulent boundary layer and are subject to intense concentration impulses from hyper-local (<100m) point sources of emissions. These high frequency spikes are often filtered out in broader emission flux studies, losing valuable information about how hyper-local sources influence receptors. In this study, we investigated how empirical atmospheric data can be used to locate and quantify a concurrently measured hyper-local point source in a dense urban setting. An eddy covariance style tower and a low-cost sensor tower were deployed in various locations around an urban, hyper-local CO2/CH4 emissions source (a continuously measured restaurant exhaust vent). A model using different processing and statistical techniques was built to examine the most effective procedures for source isolation, directional location, and emission quantification. Using excess concentrations above a minimum baseline, we identify the source using bivariate polar plots and quantify the relationship between source size, receptor distance, and statistical proxies. Furthermore, we find that varying statistical thresholds allows for identification of less influential sources which are drowned out by larger or closer sources. Finally, we show that large sources can be effectively characterized using low-cost sensors, a valuable outcome informing how networks for monitoring larger areas could be implemented. This work may provide a basis for source identification and monitoring protocols for networks that feature sensors influenced by hyper-local point sources, subject to site-specific assumptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identification of over ten thousand candidate structured RNAs in viruses and phages

Structured RNAs play crucial roles in viruses, exerting influence over both viral and host gene expression. However, the extensive diversity of structured RNAs and their ability to act in cis or trans positions pose challenges for predicting and assigning their functions. While comparative genomics approaches have successfully predicted candidate structured RNAs in microbes on a large scale, similar efforts for viruses have been lacking. In this study, we screened over 5 million DNA and RNA viral sequences, resulting in the prediction of 10,006 novel candidate structured RNAs. These predictions are widely distributed across taxonomy and ecosystem. We found transcriptional evidence for 206 of these candidate structured RNAs in the human fecal microbiome. These candidate RNAs exhibited evidence of nucleotide covariation, indicative of selective pressure maintaining the predicted secondary structures. Our analysis revealed a diverse repertoire of candidate structured RNAs, encompassing a substantial number of putative tRNAs or tRNA-like structures, Rho-independent transcription terminators, and potentially cis-regulatory structures consistently positioned upstream of genes. In summary, our findings shed light on the extensive diversity of structured RNAs in viruses, offering a valuable resource for further investigations into their functional roles and implications in viral gene expression and pave the way for a deeper understanding of the intricate interplay between viruses and their hosts at the molecular level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expansion of the tmRNA sequence database and new tools for search and visualization

Abstract Transfer–messenger RNA (tmRNA) contributes essential tRNA-like and mRNA-like functions during the process of trans-translation, a mechanism of quality control for the translating bacterial ribosome. Proper tmRNA identification benefits the study of trans-translation and also the study of genomic islands, which frequently use the tmRNA gene as an integration site. Automated tmRNA gene identification tools are available, but manual inspection is still important for eliminating false positives. We have increased our database of precisely mapped tmRNA sequences over 50-fold to 97 179 unique sequences. Group I introns had previously been found integrated within a single subsite within the TψC-loop; they have now been identified at four distinct subsites, suggesting multiple founding events of invasion of tmRNA genes by group I introns, all in the same vicinity. tmRNA genes were found in metagenomic archaeal genomes, perhaps a result of misbinning of bacterial sequences during genome assembly. With the expanded database, we have produced new covariance models for improved tmRNA sequence search and new secondary structure visualization tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining compositional data sets introduces error in covariance network reconstruction

Microbial communities are diverse biological systems that include taxa from across multiple kingdoms of life. Notably, interactions between bacteria and fungi play a significant role in determining community structure. However, these statistical associations across kingdoms are more difficult to infer than intra-kingdom associations due to the nature of the data involved using standard network inference techniques. We quantify the challenges of cross-kingdom network inference from both theoretical and practical points of view using synthetic and real-world microbiome data. We detail the theoretical issue presented by combining compositional data sets drawn from the same environment, e.g. 16S and ITS sequencing of a single set of samples, and we survey common network inference techniques for their ability to handle this error. We then test these techniques for the accuracy and usefulness of their intra- and interkingdom associations by inferring networks from a set of simulated samples for which a ground-truth set of associations is known. We show that while the two methods mitigate the error of cross-kingdom inference, there is little difference between techniques for key practical applications including identification of strong correlations and identification of possible keystone taxa (i.e. hub nodes in the network). Furthermore, we identify a signature of the error caused by transkingdom network inference and demonstrate that it appears in networks constructed using real-world environmental microbiome data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining compositional data sets introduces error in covariance network reconstruction

Microbial communities are diverse biological systems that include taxa from across multiple kingdoms of life. Notably, interactions between bacteria and fungi play a significant role in determining community structure. However, these statistical associations across kingdoms are more difficult to infer than intra-kingdom associations due to the nature of the data involved using standard network inference techniques. We quantify the challenges of cross-kingdom network inference from both theoretical and practical points of view using synthetic and real-world microbiome data. We detail the theoretical issue presented by combining compositional data sets drawn from the same environment, e.g. 16S and ITS sequencing of a single set of samples, and we survey common network inference techniques for their ability to handle this error. We then test these techniques for the accuracy and usefulness of their intra- and inter-kingdom associations by inferring networks from a set of simulated samples for which a ground-truth set of associations is known. We show that while the two methods mitigate the error of cross-kingdom inference, there is little difference between techniques for key practical applications including identification of strong correlations and identification of possible keystone taxa (i.e. hub nodes in the network). Furthermore, we identify a signature of the error caused by transkingdom network inference and demonstrate that it appears in networks constructed using real-world environmental microbiome data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Capturing plume behavior in complex terrain: an overview of the Nevada National Security Site Meteorological Experiment (METEX21)

METEX21 was an atmospheric tracer release experiment executed at the Department of Energy’s Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in the southwestern U.S to study terrain-induced wind and thermodynamic conditions that influence local-scale (<5-km) plume transport under varying atmospheric forcing conditions. Meteorological observations were collected using 10-m tall meteorological towers, 2-m tall tripods with 3-d sonic anemometers, a 3-m tall eddy covariance flux tower, Doppler profiling lidars, Doppler scanning lidars, weather-balloon launched radiosondes, and a tethered balloon equipped with wind, temperature, and aerosol sensors at heights up to 800 m. A smoke tracer was released along three transects in the horizontal and vertical directions and observed with video cameras, aerosol sensors and lidars (via aerosol backscatter). The observations showed evidence of large-scale/synoptic transience as well as local-scale upslope and downslope flows, along-axis valley flows, recirculation eddies on leeward slopes, and periods of strong shear and veer aloft. The release days were classified as either synoptically-driven or locally-driven, and a single case day is presented in detail for each. Synoptically-forced days show relatively narrow smoke plumes traveling down the valley from north to south (with the predominant wind direction), with little deviation in transport direction regardless of the elevation or ground locations of the smoke releases, except near the presence of leeside recirculation eddies. Locally-forced days exhibit a wider range of plume behavior due to the combination of thermally-induced valley and slope flows, which are often flowing in different cardinal directions, and wind shear found aloft at higher altitudes and elevations. We saw evidence of smoke lofting on top of the mesas due to strong upslope flows on these days. A major finding of this experiment was the effectiveness of scanning lidars to measure 2-dimensional plume transport out to a 2–3 km distance; much farther than could be visibly observed. METEX21 was the first of three planned tracer experiments at NNSS, and future experiments will incorporate multiple tracers to improve individual plume identification so that finer resolution flow details can be attained from these measurements, as well as deploy a larger suite of meteorological instrumentation, including more temperature profiling data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol Vertical Turbulent Mass Flux Retrievals Through Novel Remote Sensing Algorithm

Abstract Integrated measurements of aerosol, radiation, cloud, and turbulent transport in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are essential for understanding and modeling climate and air quality. Here, we developed a new technique for the identification of convective turbulent regions and deriving the vertical distribution of aerosol turbulent mass fluxes within PBL. The algorithm uses retrievals from coherent Doppler lidars and a high spectral resolution lidar. The technique was applied to study particle mass fluxes over 2 months (November–December 2020) during the campaign conducted at the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Lamont, Oklahoma. The algorithm developed here is capable of continuously deriving vertically resolved (curtains) aerosol mass fluxes. Our data analysis shows that at the site, the 30‐min averaged fluxes at 135 m above the surface were mainly positive (upward) at ∼1 μg m −2 s −1 , suggesting that the surface is the primary source of the particle mass supplied to the boundary layer at the SGP site. Analyses of the individual case studies have revealed that not all the derived fluxes can be linked to surface emissions. Both positive and negative values in a range of ±5 μg m −2 s −1 can be caused by convective thermals interacting between the residual layer and the mixed layer and by rotation of the horizontal wind with the height. Large erroneous negative fluxes can also be caused by drizzling/precipitating clouds. We anticipate that the application of the current technique will lead to a more realistic representation of aerosol mass budgets and bidirectional mixing rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗