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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

Herein, this article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Energy dependence of fission product yields in the second-chance fission region

An extensive dataset of cumulative fission product yields has been generated under a joint collaboration between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory (TUNL). The energy dependence of the cumulative yield for a select number of high-yield fission products has been measured using quasimonoenergetic neutrons with energies between 5.5 and 11.0 MeV. This is in addition to previously published data covering 0.5–4.5 and 14.8 MeV. The absolute number of fissions was determined during the irradiation period using dual-fission ionization chambers, and the fission products were measured postactivation by whole target γ-ray spectroscopy. Here this paper presents the absolute cumulative fission product yields as a function of incident neutron energy from the neutron-induced fission of 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu isotopes at four incident energies in the second-chance fission region and compares them with existing literature values. Corrections relevant to this collaboration's previously published data are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Solar exposure of LDEF experiment trays

Exposure to solar radiation is one of the primary causes of degradation of materials on spacecraft. Accurate knowledge of solar exposure is needed to evaluate the performance of materials carried on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) during its nearly 6 year orbital flight. Presented here are tables and figures of calculated solar exposure for the experiment rows, longerons, and end bays of the spacecraft as functions of time in orbit. The data covers both direct solar and earth reflected radiation. Results are expressed in cumulative equivalent sun hours (CESH) or the hours of direct, zero incidence solar radiation that would cause the same irradiance of a surface. Space end bays received the most solar radiation, 14,000 CESH; earth end bays received the least, 4,500 CESH. Row locations received between 6,400 CESH and 11,200 CESH with rows facing either eastward or westward receiving the most radiation and rows facing northward or southward receiving the least.

Bourassa, R. J.↗

Energy dependent calculations of fission product, prompt, and delayed neutron yields for neutron induced fission on 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu

In this article, we perform energy-dependent calculations of independent and cumulative fission product yields for 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu in the first chance fission region. Starting with the primary fission fragment distributions taken from available experimental data and analytical functions based on assumptions for the excitation energy and spin-parity distributions, the Hauser-Feshbach statistical decay treatment for fission fragment de-excitation is applied to more than 1,000 fission fragments for the incident neutron energies up to 5 MeV. The calculated independent yields are then used as an input of β-decay calculations to produce the cumulative yield, and summation calculations are performed. Model parameters in these procedures are adjusted by applying the Bayesian technique at the thermal energy for 235 U and 239 Pu and in the fast energy range for 238 U. The calculated fission observable quantities, such as the energy-dependent cumulative yields, and prompt and delayed neutron yields, are compared with available experimental data. We also study the possible impact of the second chance fission opening on the energy dependence of the delayed neutron yield by on the opening of second chance fission on the energy dependence calculation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Allowable exposure limits for carbon dioxide during extravehicular activity

The intent was to review the research pertaining to human exposure to carbon dioxide (CO2) and to recommend allowable exposure limits for extravehicular activity (EVA). Respiratory, renal, and gastrointestinal systems may be adversely affected by chronic low dose CO2 exposure. Ventilation was increased 15 percent with 1 percent CO2 and 50 percent with 2 percent CO2. Chronic exposure to less than 2 percent CO2 led to 20 day cycles of uncompensated and compensated respiratory acidosis. Acid-base changes were small. Histopathologic changes in guinea pig lungs have been noted with long term exposure to 1 percent CO2. No changes were seen with exposure to 0.5 percent CO2. Cycling of bone calcium stores with associated changes in blood and urinary calcium levels occurs with long term CO2 exposure. Histologic changes in bone have been noted in guinea pigs exposed to 1 percent CO2. Renal calcification has been noted in guinea pigs with exposure to as low as 0.5 percent CO2. An increase in gastric acidity was noted in subjects with long term exposure to 1 percent CO2. Cardiovascular and neurologic function were largely unaffected. A decrease in the incidence of respiratory, renal, and gastrointestinal disease was noted in submariners coincident with a decrease in ambient CO2 from 1.2 percent to 0.8-0.9 percent. Oxygen (O2) and CO2 stimulate respiration independently and cumulatively. The addition of CO2 to high dose O2 led to the faster onset of seizure activity in mice. Experiments evaluating the physiologic responses to intermittent, repetitive exposures to low dose CO2 and 100 percent O2 mixtures should be performed. A reduction in the current NASA standard for CO2 exposure during EVA of 1 percent (7.6 mmHg) for nominal and 2 percent (15.2 mmHg) for heavy exertion to 0.5 percent (3.8 mmHg) for nominal and 1 percent (7.6 mmHg) for heavy exertion may be prudent. At a minimum, the current NASA standard should not be liberalized.

Seter, Andrew J.↗

Radiation dose to critical body organs for October 1989 proton event

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-7) provides high-quality environmental data about the temporal development and energy characteristics of the protons emitted during a solar particle event. The GOES-7 time history of the hourly averaged integral proton flux for various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event occurring October 19-29, 1989. This event is similar to the August 1972 event that has been widely studied to estimate free-space and planetary radiation-protection requirements. By analyzing the time-history data, the dose rates, which can vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare, can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. When basic transport results are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions calculated with the Computerized Anatomical Man and Computerized Anatomical Female models, the dose rates and cumulative doses to specific organs can be predicted. With these results, the risks of cancer incidence and mortality are estimated for astronauts in free space protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Simonsen, Lisa C.↗

Assimilation of SMOS Brightness Temperatures or Soil Moisture Retrievals into a Land Surface Model

Three different data products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated separately into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) to improve estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture. The first product consists of multi-angle, dual-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations at the bottom of the atmosphere extracted from Level 1 data. The second product is a derived SMOS Tb product that mimics the data at a 40 degree incidence angle from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The third product is the operational SMOS Level 2 surface soil moisture (SM) retrieval product. The assimilation system uses a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with seasonally varying climatological bias mitigation for Tb assimilation, whereas a time-invariant cumulative density function matching is used for SM retrieval assimilation. All assimilation experiments improve the soil moisture estimates compared to model-only simulations in terms of unbiased root-mean-square differences and anomaly correlations during the period from 1 July 2010 to 1 May 2015 and for 187 sites across the US. Especially in areas where the satellite data are most sensitive to surface soil moisture, large skill improvements (e.g., an increase in the anomaly correlation by 0.1) are found in the surface soil moisture. The domain-average surface and root-zone skill metrics are similar among the various assimilation experiments, but large differences in skill are found locally. The observation-minus-forecast residuals and analysis increments reveal large differences in how the observations add value in the Tb and SM retrieval assimilation systems. The distinct patterns of these diagnostics in the two systems reflect observation and model errors patterns that are not well captured in the assigned EnKF error parameters. Consequently, a localized optimization of the EnKF error parameters is needed to further improve Tb or SM retrieval assimilation.

SMOS↗

Spectral Element Modeling of Acoustic to Seismic Coupling Over Topography

Acoustic waves in the atmosphere are commonly recorded on seismometers as they couple into the ground. These signals, here called ground coupled airwaves, are not commonly considered in numerical modeling of infrasound propagation, which often assumes a rigid unmeshed boundary. Starting from an analytically-tractable spherical wave model, we analyze how the coupling of an acoustic wave into a planar elastic halfspace changes over a wide range of scenarios. We use energy admittance to quantify acoustic to seismic coupling over both a planar elastic halfspace and meshed topography. Our spectral element and analytic calculations have different maxima as a function of incidence angle, with very high admittance values for near-vertical incidence (maximum ≈78%). Energy admittance calculations at shallow incidence angles are much smaller (less than 1%). In simulations over the complex topography of Sakurajima Volcano, we attribute the variable spatial pattern of energy admittance to changes in earth parameters between each model. The observed pressure difference over the simulated 15 km region appears to be < 2%. While this value is relatively small, the cumulative addition over 100s of km and multiple acoustic bounce points may be significant. Acoustic to seismic coupling along the propagation path may bias long distance yield estimates, particularly when infrasound propagates over regions with steep topography or particularly slow seismic velocities, such as alluvial planes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50 percent less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Simonsen, L. C.↗

A plant canopy light absorption model with application to wheat

From the light absorption model the absorption of light in the photosynthetically active region of the spectrum was calculated for a Penjamo wheat crop for several situations including: (1) the percent absorption of the incident radiation by a canopy having a four layer structure; (2) the percent absorption of light by the individual layers within a four layer canopy and by the underlying soil; (3) the percent absorption of light by each vegetative canopy layer for variable sun angle; and (4) the cumulative solar energy absorbed by the developing wheat canopy as it progresses from a single layer through its growth stages to a three layer canopy. This calculation was also presented as a function of the leaf area index.

Chance, J. E.↗

Plant canopy light absorption model with application to wheat

A light absorption model (LAM) for vegetative plant canopies has been derived from the Suits reflectance model. From the LAM the absorption of light in the photosynthetically active region of the spectrum (400-700 nm) has been calculated for a Penjamo wheat crop for several situations including (a) the percent absorption of the incident radiation by a canopy of LAI 3.1 having a four-layer structure, (b) the percent absorption of light by the individual layers within a four-layer canopy and by the underlying soil, (c) the percent absorption of light by each vegetative canopy layer for variable sun angle, and (d) the cumulative solar energy absorbed by the developing wheat canopy as it progresses from a single layer through its growth stages to a three-layer canopy. This calculation is also presented as a function of the leaf area index and is shown to be in agreement with experimental data reported by Kanemasu on Plainsman V wheat.

Chance, J. E.↗

Computation of Domain-Averaged Shortwave Irradiance by a One-Dimensional Algorithm Incorporating Correlations between Optical Thickness and Direct Incident Radiation

A one-dimensional radiative transfer algorithm that accounts for correlations between the optical thickness and the incident direct solar radiation is developed to compute the domain-averaged shortwave irradiance profile. It divides the direct irradiance into four components and treats the direct irradiance in two separate, clear and cloudy columns to account for the fact that clouds attenuate the direct irradiance more than clear-sky. The horizontal inhomogeneity of clouds in the cloudy column is treated by the gamma weighted two-stream approximation, which assumes that the optical thickness of clouds follows a gamma distribution. The algorithm inputs the cloud fraction, cumulative cloud fraction as a function of height, and a parameter expressing the shape of the probability density function of the cloud optical thickness distribution in addition to inputs required for a two-stream radiative transfer model. These cloud property inputs can be obtained using ground- and satellite-based instruments. Therefore, the algorithm can treat realistic cloud overlap features and horizontal inhomogeneity of clouds in a framework of one- dimensional radiative transfer. Heating rates computed by the algorithm using cloud fields generated by cloud resolving models agree with those computed with a Monte Carlo model. If optical properties in computational layers that divide a vertically extensive cloud are correlated, the irradiance profile computed by the algorithm further improves.

Kato, S.↗

Stopping Force Analysis of 235 U Elemental Fission Product Yields for $E_n$ = 0.11–92.4 MeV

We report most evaluated elemental fission product yield distributions are not experimentally measured. Instead, the majority of evaluated distributions are based on analytic expressions of the Zp-model for relevant cumulative yields. Here we report independent elemental fission product yield distributions of a 235 U target for incident neutron energies ranging from 0.11 MeV through 92.4 MeV. Atomic numbers are calculated by an approach that combines a 2E analysis with a stopping force analysis method, developed within this paper. These analyses are applied to more than 6.1 × 10 6 fission fragment ionization tracks captured within the NIFFTE (Neutron Induced Fission Fragment Tracking Experiment) collaboration fission time projection chamber (fissionTPC). A 3-Z resolution was obtained with the fissionTPC spatial and energy resolutions. Tabulated results are presented for the atomic yield and experimentally derived Zp values as a function of pre-neutron-emission fragment masses for the complete range of incident neutron energies. The stopping-force-derived Zp values tend to support the unchanged charge distribution theory within uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Circadian rhythms, sleep, and performance in space

Maintaining optimal alertness and neurobehavioral functioning during space operations is critical to enable the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) vision "to extend humanity's reach to the Moon, Mars and beyond" to become a reality. Field data have demonstrated that sleep times and performance of crewmembers can be compromised by extended duty days, irregular work schedules, high workload, and varying environmental factors. This paper documents evidence of significant sleep loss and disruption of circadian rhythms in astronauts and associated performance decrements during several space missions, which demonstrates the need to develop effective countermeasures. Both sleep and circadian disruptions have been identified in the Behavioral Health and Performance (BH&P) area and the Advanced Human Support Technology (AHST) area of NASA's Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap. Such disruptions could have serious consequences on the effectiveness, health, and safety of astronaut crews, thus reducing the safety margin and increasing the chances of an accident or incident. These decrements oftentimes can be difficult to detect and counter effectively in restrictive operational environments. NASA is focusing research on the development of optimal sleep/wake schedules and countermeasure timing and application to help mitigate the cumulative effects of sleep and circadian disruption and enhance operational performance. Investing research in humans is one of NASA's building blocks that will allow for both short- and long-duration space missions and help NASA in developing approaches to manage and overcome the human limitations of space travel. In addition to reviewing the current state of knowledge concerning sleep and circadian disruptions during space operations, this paper provides an overview of NASA's broad research goals. Also, NASA-funded research, designed to evaluate the relationships between sleep quality, circadian rhythm stability, and performance proficiency in both ground-based simulations and space mission studies, as described in the 2003 NASA Task Book, will be reviewed.

Review↗

Human life support for advanced space exploration

The requirements for a human life support system for long-duration space missions are reviewed. The system design of a controlled ecological life support system is briefly described, followed by a more detailed account of the study of the conceptual design of a Lunar Based CELSS. The latter is to provide a safe, reliable, recycling lunar base life support system based on a hybrid physicochemical/biological representative technology. The most important conclusion reached by this study is that implementation of a completely recycling CELSS approach for a lunar base is not only feasible, but eminently practical. On a cumulative launch mass basis, a 4-person Lunar Base CELSS would pay for itself in approximately 2.6 years relative to a physicochemical air/water recycling system with resupply of food from the Earth. For crew sizes of 30 and 100, the breakeven point would come even sooner, after 2.1 and 1.7 years, respectively, due to the increased mass savings that can be realized with the larger plant growth units. Two other conclusions are particularly important with regard to the orientation of future research and technology development. First, the mass estimates of the Lunar Base CELSS indicate that a primary design objective in implementing this kind of system must be to minimized the mass and power requirement of the food production plant growth units, which greatly surpass those of the other air and water recycling systems. Consequently, substantial research must be directed at identifying ways to produce food more efficiently. On the other hand, detailed studies to identify the best technology options for the other subsystems should not be expected to produce dramatic reductions in either mass or power requirement of a Lunar Base CELSS. The most crucial evaluation criterion must, therefore, be the capability for functional integration of these technologies into the ultimate design of the system. Secondly, this study illustrates that existing or near-term technologies are adequate to implement a Lunar Base CELSS. There are no apparent "show-stoppers" which require the development of new technologies. However, there are several areas in which new materials and technologies could be used for a more efficient implementation of the system, e.g., by decreasing mass or power requirement and increasing recycling efficiency. These areas must be further addressed through research and development. Finally, although this study focused on the development of a Lunar Base CELSS, the same technologies and a nearly identical design would be appropriate for a Mars base. Actually, except for the distance of transportation, the implementation of a CELSS on Mars would even be easier than it would be on the Moon. The presence of atmospheric CO2 on Mars, although in low concentration, coupled with the fact that the day/night cycle on Mars is very similar to that on Earth, makes the use of light-weight, greenhouse-like structures for growing food plants even more feasible than on the Moon. There are some environmental problems, which would have to be dealt with, like dust storms and the large amount of the ultraviolet radiation incident on the planet's surface. However, the materials and methods are largely available today to develop such a life support system for a Mars base.

Review, Tutorial↗

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗