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Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

Herein, this article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Energy dependence of fission product yields in the second-chance fission region

An extensive dataset of cumulative fission product yields has been generated under a joint collaboration between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory (TUNL). The energy dependence of the cumulative yield for a select number of high-yield fission products has been measured using quasimonoenergetic neutrons with energies between 5.5 and 11.0 MeV. This is in addition to previously published data covering 0.5–4.5 and 14.8 MeV. The absolute number of fissions was determined during the irradiation period using dual-fission ionization chambers, and the fission products were measured postactivation by whole target γ-ray spectroscopy. Here this paper presents the absolute cumulative fission product yields as a function of incident neutron energy from the neutron-induced fission of 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu isotopes at four incident energies in the second-chance fission region and compares them with existing literature values. Corrections relevant to this collaboration's previously published data are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Energy dependent calculations of fission product, prompt, and delayed neutron yields for neutron induced fission on 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu

In this article, we perform energy-dependent calculations of independent and cumulative fission product yields for 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu in the first chance fission region. Starting with the primary fission fragment distributions taken from available experimental data and analytical functions based on assumptions for the excitation energy and spin-parity distributions, the Hauser-Feshbach statistical decay treatment for fission fragment de-excitation is applied to more than 1,000 fission fragments for the incident neutron energies up to 5 MeV. The calculated independent yields are then used as an input of β-decay calculations to produce the cumulative yield, and summation calculations are performed. Model parameters in these procedures are adjusted by applying the Bayesian technique at the thermal energy for 235 U and 239 Pu and in the fast energy range for 238 U. The calculated fission observable quantities, such as the energy-dependent cumulative yields, and prompt and delayed neutron yields, are compared with available experimental data. We also study the possible impact of the second chance fission opening on the energy dependence of the delayed neutron yield by on the opening of second chance fission on the energy dependence calculation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Spectral Element Modeling of Acoustic to Seismic Coupling Over Topography

Acoustic waves in the atmosphere are commonly recorded on seismometers as they couple into the ground. These signals, here called ground coupled airwaves, are not commonly considered in numerical modeling of infrasound propagation, which often assumes a rigid unmeshed boundary. Starting from an analytically-tractable spherical wave model, we analyze how the coupling of an acoustic wave into a planar elastic halfspace changes over a wide range of scenarios. We use energy admittance to quantify acoustic to seismic coupling over both a planar elastic halfspace and meshed topography. Our spectral element and analytic calculations have different maxima as a function of incidence angle, with very high admittance values for near-vertical incidence (maximum ≈78%). Energy admittance calculations at shallow incidence angles are much smaller (less than 1%). In simulations over the complex topography of Sakurajima Volcano, we attribute the variable spatial pattern of energy admittance to changes in earth parameters between each model. The observed pressure difference over the simulated 15 km region appears to be < 2%. While this value is relatively small, the cumulative addition over 100s of km and multiple acoustic bounce points may be significant. Acoustic to seismic coupling along the propagation path may bias long distance yield estimates, particularly when infrasound propagates over regions with steep topography or particularly slow seismic velocities, such as alluvial planes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stopping Force Analysis of 235 U Elemental Fission Product Yields for $E_n$ = 0.11–92.4 MeV

We report most evaluated elemental fission product yield distributions are not experimentally measured. Instead, the majority of evaluated distributions are based on analytic expressions of the Zp-model for relevant cumulative yields. Here we report independent elemental fission product yield distributions of a 235 U target for incident neutron energies ranging from 0.11 MeV through 92.4 MeV. Atomic numbers are calculated by an approach that combines a 2E analysis with a stopping force analysis method, developed within this paper. These analyses are applied to more than 6.1 × 10 6 fission fragment ionization tracks captured within the NIFFTE (Neutron Induced Fission Fragment Tracking Experiment) collaboration fission time projection chamber (fissionTPC). A 3-Z resolution was obtained with the fissionTPC spatial and energy resolutions. Tabulated results are presented for the atomic yield and experimentally derived Zp values as a function of pre-neutron-emission fragment masses for the complete range of incident neutron energies. The stopping-force-derived Zp values tend to support the unchanged charge distribution theory within uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗