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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

The Temporal and Spatial Development of dB/dt for Substorms

Ground induced currents (GICs) due to space weather are a threat to high voltage power transmission systems. However, knowledge of ground conductivity is the largest source of errors in the determination of GICs. A good proxy for GICs is dB/dt obtained from the Bx and By components of the magnetic field fluctuations. It is known that dB/dt values associated with magnetic storms can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, it is not uncommon for dB/dt values associated with substorms to exceed prior Pulkkinen and Molinski critical thresholds of 1.5 nT/s and 5 nT/s, respectively, and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Using two dimensional maps of dB/dt over North America and Greenland derived from the spherical elementary currents, we investigate the temporal and spatial change of dB/dt for both a single substorm event and a two dimensional superposed epoch analysis of many substorms. Both the single event and the statistical analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset followed by an expansion poleward, westward, and eastward after the onset during the expansion phase. The area of dB/dt values exceeding the two critical thresholds from the initial onset dB/dt values showed little to no expansion equatorward. The temporal and spatial development of the dB/dt resembles the temporal and spatial change of the auroral emissions. Substorm values of dB/dt peak shortly after the auroral onset time and in at least one event exceeded 35 nT/s for a non-storm time substorm. In many of our 81 cases the area that exceeds the threshold of 1.5 nT/s is over several million square kilometers and after about 30 minutes the dB/dt values fall below the threshold level. These results address one of goals of the Space Weather Action Plan, which are to establish benchmarks for space weather events and improve modeling and prediction of their impacts on infrastructure. Plain language: The change in the ground magnetic field with respect to time (dB/dt) associated with magnetic storms (a large disturbance of the magnetic field of the earth) can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, substorms, which are a smaller more localized disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field, are more common. It is not uncommon for substorm dB/dt values to also exceed dangerous levels and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Our analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset, which peaks shortly after the start of the substorm, followed shortly after by an expansion northward, westward, and eastward after the onset.

ionospheric currents↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Interplanetary and Magnetospheric Causes of Extreme DB/dt at Equatorial Locations

The 1 min resolution solar wind and geomagnetic data obtained from seven equatorial low-latitude stations during four extreme geomagnetic activities are used to investigate the extreme dB/dt perturbations. Simulations of the magnetospheric-ionospheric environment were also performed for varying amplitudes of the solar proton density. Simulations were carried out using the Space Weather Modeling Framework BATS-R-US + RCM model. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the appearance time of the extreme dB/dt perturbations at equatorial stations during disturbed conditions is instantaneous and equitable to those experienced at auroral regions yielding time lags of the order of a few seconds. We find that the rapid dB/dt enhancements are caused by the electric field of magnetospheric current origin, which is being enhanced by solar wind density and ram pressure variations and boosted by the equatorial electro jet. Our results indicate that the solar wind proton density variations could be used as a predictor of extreme dB/dt enhancement at equatorial latitudes.

Adebesin, Babatunde O.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tracking Magnetic Perturbations, dB/dt and Geomagnetic Indices for Geospace Storms on a Routine Basis at the CCMC

The first comprehensive assessment of geospace model skill to specify magnetic perturbations (delta-B) on the ground and their time derivative (dB/dt) was performed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center starting in 2010. This study resulted in the addition of the Space Weather Modling Framework to the suite of operational models run by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Since then, magnetic pertubations have been made available on a larger scale for Run-on-Request simulations in geospace at the CCMC. We will demonstrate recent additions to the suite of analysis tools and model results including magnetic perturbations at more stations and on a grid of positions from both, original model outputs (SWMF using preset run configurations) and post-processed calculations using CalcDeltaB and their analysis and visualization using the open-source Kamodo data access and analysis suite and the Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library tools (CAMEL) application.

Lutz Rastaetter↗
NASA NTRS2023

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Test of Shi et al. Method to Infer the Magnetic Reconnection Geometry from Spacecraft Data: MHD Simulation with Guide Field and Antiparallel Kinetic Simulation

When analyzing data from an array of spacecraft (such as Cluster or MMS) crossing a site of magnetic reconnection, it is desirable to be able to accurately determine the orientation of the reconnection site. If the reconnection is quasi-two dimensional, there are three key directions, the direction of maximum inhomogeneity (the direction across the reconnection site), the direction of the reconnecting component of the magnetic field, and the direction of rough invariance (the "out of plane" direction). Using simulated spacecraft observations of magnetic reconnection in the geomagnetic tail, we extend our previous tests of the direction-finding method developed by Shi et al. (2005) and the method to determine the structure velocity relative to the spacecraft Vstr. These methods require data from four proximate spacecraft. We add artificial noise and calibration errors to the simulation fields, and then use the perturbed gradient of the magnetic field B and perturbed time derivative dB/dt, as described by Denton et al. (2010). Three new simulations are examined: a weakly three-dimensional, i.e., quasi-two-dimensional, MHD simulation without a guide field, a quasi-two-dimensional MHD simulation with a guide field, and a two-dimensional full dynamics kinetic simulation with inherent noise so that the apparent minimum gradient was not exactly zero, even without added artificial errors. We also examined variations of the spacecraft trajectory for the kinetic simulation. The accuracy of the directions found varied depending on the simulation and spacecraft trajectory, but all the directions could be found within about 10 for all cases. Various aspects of the method were examined, including how to choose averaging intervals and the best intervals for determining the directions and velocity. For the kinetic simulation, we also investigated in detail how the errors in the inferred gradient directions from the unmodified Shi et al. method (using the unperturbed gradient) depended on the amplitude of the calibration errors. For an accuracy of 3 for the maximum gradient direction, the calibration errors could be as large as 3% of reconnection magnetic field, while for the same accuracy for the minimum gradient direction, the calibration errors could only be as large as 0.03% of the reconnection magnetic field. These results suggest that the maximum gradient direction can normally be determined by the unmodified Shi et al. method, while the modified method or some other method must be used to accurately determine the minimum gradient direction. The structure velocity was found with magnitude accurate to 2% and direction accurate to within 5%.

Denton, R.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Is the Global MHD Modeling of the Magnetosphere Adequate for GIC Prediction: the May 27–28, 2017 Storm

Practical steps taken by the international community to reduce the damage to technological systems from space weather include the development of numerical models capable of real-time predictions of electromagnetic disturbances at the Earth’s surface. Here we examine the feasibility of a version of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) global MHD simulation code similar to that used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to predict the level of geomagnetic field variability, and consequently geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We consider the contribution of geomagnetic disturbances to the bursts of GIC in the electric power line of the Kola Peninsula during the May 27–28, 2017 storm and compare the observations with results of the global MHD model. During the maximal disturbance magnetic field variations at East Scandinavian stations become more irregular, as intense Pi3 pulsations are superposed on the magnetic bay. These pulsations are not quasi-sinusoidal waves like typical Pc5 pulsations, but they are rather a quasi-periodic sequence of magnetic impulses with time scales ~5–15 min. During this period with elevated Pi3 activity very high values of GIC were recorded (variations >100 A) in the electric power transmission line. The SWMF modeling reasonably well reproduces the global magnetospheric parameters, such as SYM-H index or cross-polar potential. However, the magnetic field variability dB/dt in the East Scandinavia predicted by the modeling has turned out to be more than order of magnitude less than that observed. Thus, the version of SWMF with the grid used by NOAA SWPC still cannot adequately predict for the May 27–28 event the fine structure of the storm/substorm—Pi3 geomagnetic disturbances, and consequently the magnitude of the GIC that they drive.

geomagnetically induced currents↗
NASA NTRS2023

Occurrence of Large Geomagnetically Induced Currents Within the EPRI SUNBURST Monitoring Network

Space weather, a natural hazard, can adversely impact human technological assets. High-voltage electric power transmission grids constitute one of the most critical technological systems vulnerable to space weather driven geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). One of the major challenges pertaining to the study of GICs over the continental United States has been the availability of GIC measurements, which are critical for validation of geoelectric field and power flow models, for example. In this study, we analyze GIC measurements collected at 17 Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) SUNBURST transformer locations across the United States for which a GIC value of 10 A or greater was recorded. This data set includes 52 individual geomagnetic storms with Kp index 6 and above during the period from 2010 to 2021. The analysis confirms that there is a good correlation between the number of geomagnetic storms per year and the number of recorded GIC events. Our results also show that about 76% of the top 17 GIC events are associated with the storm main phase, while only 24% are attributed to storm sudden commencements. In addition, it is shown, for the first time, that mid-latitude positive bays can cause large GICs over the continental United States. Finally, this study shows that the largest measured GIC event in the data set was associated with a localized intense dB/dt structure, which could be attributed to substorm activity.

Chigomezyo M. Ngwira↗