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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Calibrating Bayesian generative machine learning for Bayesiamplification

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian deep learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated distribution originating from limited training statistics. The interpretation of a distribution-wide uncertainty however remains ill-defined. We show a clear scheme for quantifying the calibration of Bayesian generative machine learning models. For a Continuous Normalizing Flow applied to a low-dimensional toy example, we evaluate the calibration of Bayesian uncertainties from either a mean-field Gaussian weight posterior, or Monte Carlo sampling network weights, to gauge their behaviour on unsteady distribution edges. Well calibrated uncertainties can then be used to roughly estimate the number of uncorrelated truth samples that are equivalent to the generated sample and clearly indicate data amplification for smooth features of the distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Bias-Variance-Correlation Tradeoff and Its Implications for ML Applications in HEP

The bias-variance tradeoff is a well-recognized phenomenon in statistics and machine learning. In this talk, I will discuss an extension, dubbed the bias-variance-correlation tradeoff. Roughly speaking, as the flexibility of a model decreases, the correlations in the outputs of a trained model for different inputs increases. Such correlations have implications for several applications of machine learning in high energy physics, e.g., the use generative models for event generation. In particular, I will argue that claims in the literature of data amplification by generative models stem from ignoring important correlations between the model's outputs for different inputs.

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000227↗
DOE OSTI2025

$\mathrm{SageNet}$: Fast Neural Network Emulation of the Stiff-amplified Gravitational Waves from Inflation

Accurate modeling of the inflationary gravitational waves (GWs) requires time-consuming, iterative numerical integrations of differential equations to take into account their backreaction on the expansion history. To improve computational efficiency while preserving accuracy, we present the Stiff-amplified Gravitational-wave Emulator Network (SageNet), a deep learning framework designed to replace conventional numerical solvers (code available at https://github.com/YifangLuo/SageNet). SageNet employs a long short-term memory architecture to emulate the present-day energy density spectrum of the inflationary GWs with possible stiff amplification, Ω GW (f). Trained on a data set of 25,689 numerically generated solutions, SageNet allows accurate reconstructions of Ω GW (f) and generalizes well to a wide range of cosmological parameters; 90.9% of the test emulations with randomly distributed parameters exhibit errors of under 4%. In addition, SageNet demonstrates its ability to learn and reproduce the artificial, adaptive sampling patterns in numerical calculations, which implement denser sampling of frequencies around changes in spectral indices in Ω GW (f). The dual capability of learning both physical and artificial features of the numerical GW spectra establishes SageNet as a robust alternative to exact numerical methods. Finally, our benchmark tests show that SageNet reduces the computation time from tens of seconds to milliseconds, achieving a speedup of ∼10 4 times over standard CPU-based numerical solvers with the potential for further acceleration on GPU hardware. These capabilities make SageNet a powerful tool for accelerating Bayesian inference procedures for extended cosmological models. In a broad sense, the SageNet framework offers a fast, accurate, and generalizable solution to modeling cosmological observables whose theoretical predictions demand costly differential equation solvers.

Astronomy data modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multimodality in the Search for New Physics in Pulsar Timing Data and the Case of Kination-amplified Gravitational-wave Background from Inflation

We investigate the kination-amplified inflationary gravitational-wave background (GWB) interpretation of the signal recently reported by various pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. Kination is a post-inflationary phase in the expansion history dominated by the kinetic energy of some scalar field, characterized by a stiff equation of state w = 1. Within the inflationary GWB model, we identify two modes that can fit the current data sets (NANOGrav and EPTA) with equal likelihood: the kination-amplification (KA) mode and the ordinary, no-kination-amplification (no-KA) mode. The multimodality of the likelihood motivates a Bayesian analysis with nested sampling. We analyze the free spectra of current PTA data and mock free spectra constructed with higher signal-to-noise ratios using nested sampling. The analysis of the mock spectrum designed to be consistent with the best fit to the NANOGrav 15 yr (NG15) data successfully reveals the expected bimodal posterior for the first time while excluding the reheating mode that appears in the fit to the current NG15 data, making a case for our correct and comprehensive treatment of potential multimodal posteriors arising from future PTA data sets. The resultant Bayes factor is $\mathcal{B}$ $\equiv$ Z no–KA /Z KA = 2.9 ± 1.9, indicating comparable statistical significance between the two modes. Given the theoretical model-building challenges of producing highly blue-tilted primordial tensor spectra, the KA mode has the advantage of requiring less blue primordial spectra, compared with the no-KA mode. The synergy between future cosmic microwave background polarization, pulsar timing, and laser interferometer measurements of gravitational waves will help resolve the ambiguity implied by the multimodal posterior in PTA-only searches.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot-spot model for inertial confinement fusion implosions with an applied magnetic field

Imposing a magnetic field on inertial confinement fusion implosions magnetizes the electrons in the compressed fuel; this suppresses thermal losses, which increases temperature and fusion yield. Indirect-drive experiments at the National Ignition Facility with 12 and 26 T applied magnetic fields demonstrate up to 40% increase in temperature, 3× increase in fusion yield, and indicate that magnetization alters the radial temperature profile [Moody et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 195002 (2022); Lahmann et al., APS DPP (2022)]. In this work, we develop a semi-analytic hot-spot model, which accounts for the two-dimensional (2D) Braginskii anisotropic heat flow due to an applied axial magnetic field. First, we show that hot-spot magnetization alters the radial temperature profile, increasing the central peakedness, which is most pronounced for moderately magnetized implosions (with 8–14 T applied field), compared to both unmagnetized (with no applied field) and highly magnetized (with 26 T or higher applied field) implosions. This model explains the trend in the experimental data, which finds a similarly altered temperature profile in the 12 T experiment. Next, we derive the hot-spot model for gas-filled (Symcap) implosions, accounting for the effects of magnetization on the thermal conduction and in changing the radial temperature (and density) profiles. Using this model, we compute predicted central temperature amplification and yield enhancement scaling with the applied magnetic field. The central temperature fits the experimental data accurately, and the discrepancy in the yield suggests a systematic (independent of applied field) degradation, such as mix, and additional degradation in the reference unmagnetized shot, such as reduced laser drive, increased implosion asymmetry, or the magnetic field suppressing ablator mixing into the hot-spot.

Alpha particles↗
DOE OSTI2026

Parametrically amplified Josephson plasma waves in YBa 2 Cu 3 O 6+ x : Evidence for local superconducting fluctuations up to the pseudogap temperature T ∗

Experiments that subject underdoped YBa 2 Cu 3 O 6+x (YBCO) to intense terahertz pulses at temperatures between the transition temperature T c and the pseudogap scale T ∗ have revealed a reflectivity edge that resembles that of the superconducting state, together with second harmonic generation of a probe pulse modulated at a similar frequency. These have been interpreted in terms of parametric amplification of the lower Josephson plasmon mode. Since this mode is often associated with coherent oscillations between bilayers in the YBCO structure, these experiments have led to the suggestion that the intense pump has created (or revealed) in-plane pair coherence up to T ∗ ≈ 400 K. In this paper we propose an alternative explanation by assuming the existence of local pair amplitude and phase at equilibrium for T c < T < T ∗ . The phase correlation spans only a few lattice constants and we do not assume any pump-induced enhancement of this correlation, either in-plane or between bilayers. Instead, the coherent drive, via a parametric amplification process, induces coherence in the Josephson currents between members of bilayers. When combined with a Floquet framework, the reflectivity data can be explained. The key point is that in the lower Josephson plasmon, the coupling between bilayers is mainly capacitive; the Josephson current between bilayers can be set to zero without strongly affecting the parametric amplification process. Importantly, while superconducting coherence may not be created by the pump, the pseudogap phase must possess a local pairing amplitude at equilibrium. Consequently, these experiments have strong implications for the understanding of the pseudogap phase.

parametric amplification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of the FastIC front-end electronics into the Picosec MicroMegas detector

The Picosec MicroMegas collaboration aims to develop gaseous fast-timing detectors; experimentally, intrinsic time resolutions from around 50 ps to better than 20 ps are obtained, depending on the exact detector configuration. Parts of developments focus on exploring various options of fast-timing multi-channel front-end electronics, to meet the data processing demands of experimental applications. One option is the FastIC, which was developed for reading out positive and negative input polarity sensors with intrinsic amplification. In this paper, the first results from reading out the gaseous Picosec MicroMegas detector with the FastIC are presented. In laboratory studies, a basic description of the data processing chain was performed using a function generator. The results from test beam measurements are used to characterise the timing performance and the charge processing of the combination of FastIC and Picosec MicroMegas, as well as to demonstrate the possibility of a multi-channel detector readout. Although the timing-at-threshold level of the FastIC introduces a time walk of around 1.5 ns, time resolutions of around 50 ps have been achieved.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

THE STRUCTURE FUNCTION OF THE FREE NEUTRON AT HIGH X-BJORKEN

Understanding the internal structure of nucleons is one of the primary goal of nuclear physicists. As protons and neutrons are only the bound state solution of the QCD lagrangian (at least inside atomic nuclei), studying protons and neutrons helps uncover nuclear struc ture. Due to its easy availability, many studies on protons have been done on a wide range of kinematics. However, free neutron targets are not readily achievable. So, any information on neutrons has to be extracted from neutron-rich nuclei, and some nuclear models have to be used to subtract the contributions from other nucleons to extract the information on neutrons. So, the Barely Off-shell Nucleon Structure (BONuS12) experiment at Jefferson Lab was conducted to overcome these challenges by using spectator tagging. The experiment effectively created a quasi-free neutron target by scattering electrons off a deuterium target and detecting low-momentum, backward-moving protons using a custom-built Radial Time Projection Chamber (RTPC). Selecting the low momentum and backward-moving spectators would enable us to minimize the model-dependent effects due to final state interactions and target fragmentation. The RTPC was a 40 cm-long cylindrical detector that works on the principle of gaseous ionization. It had three layers of Gas Electron Multipliers (GEMs) for charge amplification and a surrounding readout pad. The scattered electrons were measured using the CLAS12 detector, and data were collected using a 10.4 GeV electron beam dur ing Spring and Summer 2020. Using spectator tagging, we extracted the structure function ratio Fn 2 of the quasi-free neutron in the deep inelastic scattering at high x, upto x ~ 0.8. The result was extracted in the region with the invariant mass W > 1.8 GeV/c2, and Q2 in the range 1.3 to 11 GeV2. This dissertation presents the methodology, event selection criteria and refinements, estimation and subtraction of backgrounds, and complete analysis of extraction of Fn 2/Fp 2 in a model-independent way. Also, systematic uncertainties in our final analysis will be discussed in detail.

Pokhrel, Madhusudhan [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for a Cloud Phase Feedback in the Arctic Climate System

This project was motivated by a hypothesis involving the transition in lower troposphere temperatures across the freezing point of water. Specifically, at temperatures just below to about ten degrees below freezing, Arctic clouds should be in a mixed-phase, with strong influences from secondary ice production (e.g., the Hallett-Mossop process). At temperatures just above freezing, clouds should become entirely deglaciated. We hypothesized that, with multiple years of ARM data, a statistically significant change could be detected in cloud radiative properties and surface radiative fluxes that could be directly attributed to this phase change. Furthermore, in a gradually warming climate, these phase change-related responses in surface radiation would represent a cloud phase feedback as part of Arctic amplification. We designed this research project to coincide with a new ARM Arctic cloud radar product developed by Ed Luke and collaborators at BNL (Luke et al., 2021: PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.2021387118) that explicitly contains SIP cloud properties retrieved from radar data. This research project has successfully concluded after analysis of a much larger North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data sample than originally anticipated, and the results are quite different than originally hypothesized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A 32-Channel Cryo-CMOS ASIC for SNSPD Biasing and Readout with Picosecond Timing

Superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPD) are a promising technology for particle detection. Although SNSPDs have demonstrated picosecond timing accuracy, scaling up large arrays has proved challenging. In this work, we introduce a 32-channel cryo-CMOS application-specifc integrated circuit (ASIC) that can be tightly integrated with SNSPD arrays. The ASIC is designed to operate at a temperature of 4K and can perform up to 32 simultaneous timing measurements with a root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy of 8.0ps. The ASIC includes on-chip circuitry for externally biasing superconducting devices, low-noise amplifers for reading superconducting devices, high-resolution time-to-digital converters (TDC) for time-tagging events, and serializers for transmitting data to room-temperature electronics. The ASIC is manufactured in a 22nm FDSOI process and occupies an area of 4.0mm x 1.0mm. The performance of the ASIC was verifed using custom cryogenic device models internally developed for the 22nm SOI process. Measurement results will be presented at the conference.

Fredenburg, Jeff↗
DOE OSTI2026

As above, not so below: Ion fractionation in planetary analog ices

The geophysical evolution and astrobiological potential of ocean worlds are indelibly linked to the chemical compositions of their oceans and ice shells. In the absence of direct measurements, empirical estimates of subsurface ocean compositions have relied on the assumption that the ionic compositions of ice shell surfaces are representative of their underlying ocean compositions. Here, we present experimental results demonstrating that ion fractionation—the differential entrainment of ion species in forming ices—is likely a prevalent process on ocean worlds, suggesting that planetary ice shell compositions do not directly reflect their underlying ocean compositions. We measure in-ice depletions and amplifications of relative ion concentrations ranging between −40 and +77%, compared to the parent fluid composition. Although this may complicate the interpretation of spacecraft data, ion fractionation provides a mechanism for generating compositionally diverse ices that could help explain the geological complexity of planetary ice shells.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel, Middle and Long Wave Infrared Laser Sources For Accelerator Applications

The main accomplishment during Years 2020-2024 of the DOE Accelerator Stewardship Program is proof-of-principle demonstration of amplification of an ultrashort 10 µm seed pulse in a multiatmosphere CO 2 laser optically pumped by nanosecond pulses of either a ~4.3 µm Fe:ZnSe laser or a 2.8 µm electro-optically (EO) Q-switched Er: Laser. This has been accomplished at the UCLA Neptune Laboratory by using about 100 mJ, ~100 ns long pulses generated by the pump laser built for this purpose by the UAB team. Implementation of EO Q-switching regime in the solid-state Er:laser system made possible nanosecond synchronization between the pump pulse and the 0.5 ps seed pulse produced by a commercial Ti:sapphire laser based mid-IR OPA/DFG. The injection mode-locking regime realized in a compact Mult atmosphere 3 Hz CO 2 -He regenerative amplifier enabled generation of a train of ultrashort pulses separated by the cavity round-trip time of ~3.2 ns. The measured gain lifetime of ~1 µs at a total pressure of ~12-15 atm indicates that lifetime of the upper laser level is a critical limiting factor in designing high-pressure CO 2 amplifiers. A single picosecond 10 mm pulse with an energy 0.1-0.2 mJ was extracted from the amplifier’s cavity using an ultrafast Ge semiconductor switch whose reflectivity was photo-induced by a femtosecond 800 nm pulse. For direct amplification regime, nonlinear absorption in Ge at 10 mm at GW/cm 2 intensities limited the extracted energy. Therefore, the generated energy could be further increased by minimizing losses in the switch and optimizing the cavity mode size. Based on the obtained data in collaboration with BNL colleagues, we have designed a high-pressure CO 2 amplifier to be used as a preamplifier for the future experiments at the ATF BNL. The latter work is the subject of funding availability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic Impact Identification with Less Data Using Variable Relationships: An Exploratory Express LDRD project.

Regional impacts from sea ice loss can be challenging to separate from internal climate variability, potentially requiring thousands of ensemble members. East Asian wintertime cooling has been linked to sea ice loss from present day conditions in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with these large ensemble counts. This cooling is theorized to arise from a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Jet response. The strengthened Siberian High can be detected with one fifth the ensemble members needed for the East Asian wintertime cooling in a single model. We thus hypothesize that leveraging relationships between multiple variables in a conditional pathways-based approach would reduce the number of required ensemble members to conclusively attribute East Asian wintertime cooling to future sea ice concentrations. In all analyzed cases, confidence was increased when evaluating sea ice loss’s responsibility for the joint effects of East Asian cooling, East Asian Jet strengthening, and Siberian High strengthening over just East Asian cooling. However, we were not able to confidently attribute future East Asian wintertime cooling to sea ice loss in a single model. We found that significant intra-ensemble variability within single Earth System Models (ESMs) produced highly uncertain forcing response models upon which attribution results were undermined. We were able to show that ensemble mean seasonally averaged metrics from multiple ESMs greatly improved the accuracy of the forcing response linear models and exposed the necessity of all three steps in the pathway (sea ice area, Siberian High pressure, and East Asian Jet speed) for accurate prediction of East Asian wintertime cooling. Although all three steps were necessary, East Asian wintertime cooling possesses a large dependence on the Siberian High pressure, which weakens the confidence associated with overall strong joint-attribution comparing present day and future scenarios. We believe transitioning the pathway nodes to relative changes between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as between the midlatitude westerlies and subtropical jet in the East Asianj Jet region may be able to produce significant attribution more fully dependent upon all three steps. Ultimately, this research demonstrates the simple extensibility of conditional pathways-based attribution to sea ice loss forcing on the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

FOILPOLARS (Grassmannian Foil Shape Sweeps for Polar Generation) [SWR-26-095]

FOILPOLARS (Grassmannian Foil Shape Sweeps for Polar Generation): Multifidelity aerodynamic polar data generation for hydrofoil/tidal-turbine airfoil sections. Foilpolars ties together three pieces: *AeroSandbox supplies the baseline airfoil coordinates (UIUC database). *G2Aero parameterizes those shapes on a Grassmannian manifold (Karcher mean + PGA basis) and samples new perturbed shapes around that basis. *XFoil (panel method) and NeuralFoil (neural-network surrogate, shipped with AeroSandbox) each solve the resulting shapes for lift, drag, moment, and pressure at the swept angles of attack, Reynolds numbers, and n_crit values. Design optimization of foil shapes in a computationally efficient way requires polars data across many candidate shapes, not just a handful of baseline foils. However, high-fidelity CFD at that scale is too costly, and naive shape perturbation strays from realistic geometries. FOILPOLARS addresses this by loading baseline airfoils (via AeroSandbox) and mapping them onto a Grassmannian manifold (via G2Aero), computing a Karcher mean and principal geodesic analysis (PGA) basis. New shapes are sampled by perturbing PGA coefficients, keeping them close to the manifold of realistic foils. Each sampled shape is evaluated across a configurable sweep of angle of attack, Reynolds number, and critical amplification factor using two solvers: XFoil (panel method) and NeuralFoil (neural-network surrogate), producing a paired dataset of lift, drag, moment, pressure, convergence, and confidence, indexed alongside each shape's PGA coefficients and shared Grassmannian basis in a single xarray dataset. From this, FOILPOLARS produces convergence summaries and comparison plots per shape, Reynolds number, and n_crit. A command-line interface exposes each pipeline stage independently, supporting data-driven design, optimization, and machine-learning workflows for foils.

Sandhu, Rimple [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗
DOE OSTI2025

SlimIO: Lightweight I/O Path Design for Write Isolation in FDP-backed In-Memory Databases

In-Memory Databases (IMDBs) are widely used with HPC applications to manage transient data, often using snapshot-based persistence for backups. Redis, a representative IMDB, employs both snapshot and Write-Ahead Log (WAL) mechanisms, storing data on persistent devices via the traditional kernel I/O path. This method incurs syscall overhead, I/O contention between processes, and SSD garbage collection (GC) delays. To address these issues, we propose SlimIO, which adopts I/O passthru to minimize syscall overhead and inter-process I/O interference. Additionally, it leverages Flexible Data Placement (FDP) SSDs as backup storage to avoid performance degradation from SSD GC. Experimental results show that SlimIO reduces snapshot time by up to 25%, increases query throughput by up to 30% during non-snapshot periods, and lowers 99.9%-ile latency by up to 50%. Furthermore, it achieves a write amplification factor (WAF) of 1.00, indicating no redundant internal writes, thus extending SSD lifespan.

Lee, Sangyun [Sogang University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Why Firn Quakes

Snow dampens sounds, but anecdotal reports concisely describe audible propagating collapse events—firnquakes—in Antarctic and Arctic snowfields. We propose combining granular and continuum mechanics to form a testable theory for conditioning, triggering, and propagation of firnquakes consistent with scarce data. A central condition for collapse events is unconsolidated firn at depth. As firn grains compact, stresses are transmitted along force chains which carry the overburden and transition into a continuous medium by pressure sintering. This granular legacy creates solid-like supports of denser layers that keep the material below unconsolidated. Dynamic amplification triggers local brittle failure of the supports, which induces a cascade of collapse propagation. Using bulk density from ice cores as proxy for stiffness, we find the flexural wave speed by collapsing supports matches the recorded firnquake velocities on the order of 100 m/s. Our theory is to be tested in firn sheets and other compacting granular materials.

Voigtländer, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗