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DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Modeling and Optimization of Building Energy Consumption: a Case Study

Installing sensors and Building Automation Systems (BAS) allows controlling the facility operations while generating data that can be analyzed for model development. This work focuses on data-driven modeling of the building to optimize energy consumption. The City of Orlando aims to reduce its energy consumption so, they provided us access to their BAS for data and studying the operation of its facilities. We selected a mid-size pilot building to conduct data analysis and modeling. We develop an Application Programming Interface (API) to login to the servers and scrape data. The scraped data contains features ranging from environmental conditions to equipment activity. This dataset is a time series so, it's handled in accordance and analyzed to investigate patterns and relations between data points that help choose parameters for predictive models for building and equipment. Finally, the models are optimized to reduce the energy consumption of the facility.

Grover, Divas↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven model for divertor plasma detachment prediction

We present a fast and accurate data-driven surrogate model for divertor plasma detachment prediction leveraging the latent feature space concept in machine learning research. Our approach involves constructing and training two neural networks: an autoencoder that finds a proper latent space representation (LSR) of plasma state by compressing the multi-modal diagnostic measurements and a forward model using multi-layer perception (MLP) that projects a set of plasma control parameters to its corresponding LSR. By combining the forward model and the decoder network from autoencoder, this new data-driven surrogate model is able to predict a consistent set of diagnostic measurements based on a few plasma control parameters. In order to ensure that the crucial detachment physics is correctly captured, highly efficient 1D UEDGE model is used to generate training and validation data in this study. The benchmark between the data-driven surrogate model and UEDGE simulations shows that our surrogate model is capable of providing accurate detachment prediction (usually within a few per cent relative error margin) but with at least four orders of magnitude speed-up, indicating that performance-wise, it has the potential to facilitate integrated tokamak design and plasma control. Comparing with the widely used two-point model and/or two-point model formatting, the new data-driven model features additional detachment front prediction and can be easily extended to incorporate richer physics. This study demonstrates that the complicated divertor and scrape-off-layer plasma state has a low-dimensional representation in latent space. Understanding plasma dynamics in latent space and utilising this knowledge could open a new path for plasma control in magnetic fusion energy research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Modeling and the Big Data Problems.

Abstract not provided.

Stewart, James↗

DOE OSTI2021

A physics-informed and hierarchically regularized data-driven model for predicting fluid flow through porous media

This paper presents a new deep learning data-driven model for predicting structure dependent pore-fluid velocity fields in rock. The model is based on a Convolutional Auto-Encoder (CAE) artificial neural network capable of learning from image data generated by direct numerical simulations of fluid flow through pore-structures, such as by Lattice Boltzmann or molecular dynamics methods. The main novelty of the model in comparison to previous CAE-based data-driven approaches consists of three parts. The first is a methodology for decomposing the full-domain of the porous media into sub-regions, or “sub-domains”, in order to reduce the overall size of the CAE, batch process the sub-domains in parallel, and enable the CAE to learn local and generalizable nonlinear mappings of pore-fluid velocities. The second consists of embedding the finite difference solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes and continuity equations into convolutional layers prior to the CAE in order to provide the CAE with knowledge of fluid dynamics physics (PhyFlow). The third main novelty is that the training of the CAE is regularized with a hierarchical loss function that encourages the learning of fluid flow patterns (in a way similar to ranked modes in principal component analysis), ranking from most to least important. This is shown to increase the stability in learning, reduce over-fitting, and promote interpretability of the CAE neural network layers (HierCAE). The comprehensive new data-driven model, which we call the PhyFlow-HierCAE model, is shown to exhibit improved accuracy and generalizability of flow field predictions over conventional CAE models, attributable to the embedded physical knowledge and the hierarchical regularization, as well as realize orders of magnitude speed-ups in computation times as a surrogate for the direct numerical simulations. Examples of training and forward predictions on unseen pore-structures are provided and evaluated for data from Lattice Boltzmann and molecular dynamics simulations of pore-fluid flow. The model is shown to be a fast and accurate emulator (or “surrogate”) for predicting effective permeability of unseen pore-structures based on learning from relatively small direct numerical simulation datasets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Perspectives on the integration between first-principles and data-driven modeling

Efficiently embedding and/or integrating mechanistic information with data-driven models is essential if it is desired to simultaneously take advantage of both engineering principles and data-science. Further the opportunity for hybridization occurs in many scenarios, such as the development of a faster model of an accurate high-fidelity computer model; the correction of a mechanistic model that does not fully-capture the physical phenomena of the system; or the integration of a data-driven component approximating an unknown correlation within a mechanistic model. At the same time, different techniques have been proposed and applied in different literatures to achieve this hybridization, such as hybrid modeling, physics-informed Machine Learning (ML) and model calibration. In this paper we review the methods, challenges, applications and algorithms of these three research areas and discuss them in the context of the different hybridization scenarios. Moreover, we provide a comprehensive comparison of the hybridization techniques with respect to their differences and similarities, as well as advantages and limitations and future perspectives. Finally, we apply and illustrate hybrid modeling, physics-informed ML and model calibration via a chemical reactor case study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 9: Viability of Data-Driven Approach for Outage Management (Deliverable D6))

This technical report is provided to US Department of Energy for progress made on the AGGERGATE project led by the Washington State University. This report is specifically related to the deliverable: ’D6: Technical report discussing the viability of the developed data-driven models and co-simulation architecture for models for operation in a real-world operational setting and the results of Tasks 1 to 8, summarizing the project findings and accomplishments to date’.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven modeling and control of dynamical systems using Koopman and Perron-Frobenius operators

This dissertation studies the data-driven modeling and control problem of nonlinear systems by exploiting the linear operator theoretic framework involving Koopman and Perro-Frobenius operator. A systematic linear-operator based controller design procedure has been established, which can be used to solve a variety of nonlinear control problems, including feedback stabilization using control Lyapunov functions, optimal quadratic regulation using Koopman eigenfunctions and convex optimization formulation of optimal control problem using P-F and Koopman operator approximation. As the core of data-driven modeling, we first propose a new algorithm for the finite-dimensional approximation of the linear transfer Koopman and Perron-Frobenius operator from time-series data. We argue that the existing approach for the finite-dimensional approximation of these transfer operators such as Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) do not capture two important properties of these operators, namely positivity and Markov property. The algorithm we propose preserves these two properties. We call the proposed algorithm as naturally structured DMD (NSDMD) since it retains the inherent properties of these operators. Naturally structured DMD algorithm leads to a better approximation of the steady-state dynamics of the system regarding computing Koopman and Perron- Frobenius operator eigenfunctions and eigenvalues. However, preserving positivity property is critical for capturing the real transient dynamics of the system. This positivity property of the transfer operators and it's finite-dimensional approximation play an important role for controller and estimator design of nonlinear systems. To solve the feedback stabilization problem for nonlinear control systems, we tried to take advantage of the Koopman operator framework. The Koopman operator approach provides a linear representation for a nonlinear dynamical system and a bilinear representation for a nonlinear control system. The problem of feedback stabilization of a nonlinear control system is then transformed to the stabilization of a bilinear control system. We propose a control Lyapunov function (CLF)-based approach for the design of stabilizing feedback controllers for the bilinear system. The search for finding a CLF for the bilinear control system is formulated as a convex optimization problem. This leads to a schematic procedure for designing CLF-based stabilizing feedback controllers for the bilinear system and hence the original nonlinear system. Another advantage of the proposed controller design approach outlined in this dissertation is that it does not require explicit knowledge of system dynamics. In particular, the bilinear representation of a nonlinear control system in the Koopman eigenfunction space can be obtained from time-series data. Next, we study the optimal quadratic regulation problem for nonlinear systems. The linear operator theoretic framework involving the Koopman operator is used to lift the dynamics of nonlinear control system to an infinite-dimensional bilinear system. The optimal quadratic regulation problem for nonlinear system is formulated in terms of the finite-dimensional approximation of the bilinear system. A convex optimization-based approach is proposed for solving the quadratic regulator problem for bilinear system. We applied a variety of examples and compared the simulation results between our framework and conventional LQR control using linearized model. For more general optimal control problems, we provide a density-function based convex formulation for the optimal control problem of the nonlinear system. The convex formulation relies on the duality result in the stability theory of a dynamical system involving density function and Perron-Frobenius operator. The optimal control problem is formulated as an infinite-dimensional convex optimization program. The finite-dimensional approximation of the optimization problem relies on the recent advances made in the data-driven computation of the Koopman operator, which is dual to the Perron-Frobenius operator. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the application of the developed framework.

Huang, Bowen↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling atmospheric data and identifying dynamics Temporal data-driven modeling of air pollutants

Atmospheric modelling has recently experienced a surge with the advent of deep learning. Most of these models, however, predict concentrations of pollutants following a data-driven approach in which the physical laws that govern their behaviors and relationships remain hidden. Furthermore, with the aid of real-world air quality data collected hourly in different stations throughout Madrid, we present a case study using a series of data-driven techniques with the following goals: (1) Find systems of ordinary differential equations that model the concentration of pollutants and their changes over time; (2) assess the performance and limitations of our model using stability analysis; (3) reconstruct the time series of chemical pollutants not measured in certain stations using delay coordinate embedding results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Model for Photovoltaic Generation: Comparison with Physical Models Using a Microgrid in Puerto Rico

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is a critical component of microgrids, but its accurate modeling is challenging due to the complex and dynamic interactions between solar irradiance, temperature, and PV system installation. This paper develops a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model that inputs solar irradiance and temperature to estimate the PV generation, and it compares the proposed data-driven model’s performance to two well-known physical models: the single-diode model and the inverter model. The results demonstrate that all the models can reach high levels of accuracy. However, the MLP model outperforms the physical models on average by 4.5 to 6.6 percent in R squared scores and 220 to 290 Watts in RMSE scores, and it does not require physical system parameters. Moreover, the data-driven model can overcome the limitations of the lack of real-time PV generation data.

R pesante colón, Marcos↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

A data-driven model predictive control (MPC) was developed to enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) nuclear microreactors. The MPC can proactively respond to potential disturbances of HP microreactors using three approaches for system identifications: linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory units. We present numerical results of data-driven MPCs to control the temperatures of selected HPs in a 37-HP test article. Our results show qualitatively that all data-driven MPCs produced similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with small errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale modeling high-order methods and data-driven modeling

Projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) comprise a promising set of data-driven approaches for accelerating the simulation of high-fidelity numerical simulations. Standard projection-based ROM approaches, however, suffer from several drawbacks when applied to the complex nonlinear dynamical systems commonly encountered in science and engineering. These limitations include a lack of stability, accuracy, and sharp a posteriori error estimators. This work addresses these limitations by leveraging multiscale modeling, least-squares principles, and machine learning to develop novel reduced-order modeling approaches, along with data-driven a posteriori error estimators, for dynamical systems. Theoretical and numerical results demonstrate that the two ROM approaches developed in this work - namely the windowed least-squares method and the Adjoint Petrov - Galerkin method - yield substantial improvements over state-of-the-art approaches. Additionally, numerical results demonstrate the capability of the a posteriori error models developed in this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven model validation for neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements

Neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements are needed to improve interaction modeling to meet the precision needs of neutrino experiments in efforts to measure oscillation parameters and search for physics beyond the Standard Model. We review the difficulties associated with modeling neutrino-nucleus interactions that lead to a dependence on event generators in oscillation analyses and cross section measurements alike. We then describe data-driven model validation techniques intended to address this model dependence. The method relies on utilizing various goodness-of-fit tests and the correlations between different observables and channels to probe the model for defects in the phase space relevant for the desired analysis. These techniques shed light on relevant mismodeling, allowing it to be detected before it begins to bias the cross section results. We compare more commonly used model validation methods which directly validate the model against alternative ones to these data-driven techniques and show their efficacy with fake data studies. These studies demonstrate that employing data-driven model validation in cross section measurements represents a reliable strategy to produce robust results that will stimulate the desired improvements to interaction modeling.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven model validation for neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Next-Generation Materials Design: Quantum Mechanics and Data-Driven Modeling

The future of materials design is rapidly advancing through the combination of quantum mechanics and data-driven modeling. These approaches integrate quantum principles with advanced data analysis, enabling precise insights into material behavior. This talk will highlight recent progress in using these methods for computational design, particularly in high-entropy alloy catalysts, emphasizing the role of hierarchical machine-learning architectures for accurate predictions. Additionally, I will discuss our work on developing machine learning interatomic potentials (MLPs) for single-element metals, metal oxides, and alloys under extreme conditions, focusing on melting behavior and phase properties at high temperatures and pressures. We have also refined our MLP models to capture dynamic surface interactions, such as CO2 and CO adsorption on MgO, using both static and molecular dynamics simulations. These models maintain high accuracy while significantly reducing computational costs compared to first-principles calculations. By enabling efficient and accurate simulations, this work supports broader community adoption, optimizes datasets for materials discovery, and extends the accessible time, size, and environmental conditions beyond the limits of experiments and traditional simulations.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling of municipal water system responses to hydroclimate extremes

Sustainable western US municipal water system (MWS) management depends on quantifying the impacts of supply and demand dynamics on system infrastructure reliability and vulnerability. Systems modeling can replicate the interactions but extensive parameterization, high complexity, and long development cycles present barriers to widespread adoption. To address these challenges, we develop the Machine Learning Water Systems Model (ML-WSM) – a novel application of data-driven modeling for MWS management. We apply the ML-WSM framework to the Salt Lake City, Utah water system, where we benchmark prediction performance on the seasonal response of reservoir levels, groundwater withdrawal, and imported water requests to climate anomalies at a daily resolution against an existing systems model. The ML-WSM accurately predicts the seasonal dynamics of all components; especially during supply-limiting conditions (KGE > 0.88, PBias < ±3%). Extreme wet conditions challenged model skill but the ML-WSM communicated the appropriate seasonal trends and relationships to component thresholds (e.g., reservoir dead pool). The model correctly classified nearly all instances of vulnerability (83%) and peak severity (100%), encouraging its use as a guidance tool that complements systems models for evaluating the influences of climate on MWS performance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive framework for data-driven model form discovery of the closure laws in thermal-hydraulics codes

The two-phase two-fluid model is a basis of many thermal-hydraulics codes used in design, licensing, and safety considerations of nuclear power plants. Thermal-hydraulics codes rely on the closure laws to close the system of conservation equations and describe the interactions between phases. These laws, derived from years of experimental investigations, are semi-empirical correlations that lack generality and have a limited range of applicability. Increase of computational power, availability of new experiments, and development of high-fidelity simulations has increased the number of validation data. The discrepancies between the code predictions and the validation data are a great source of knowledge. Missing physics that are not included in the model but are important for the considered phenomena can be discovered by propagating the information from the experimental results through the model. Furthermore, physics-discovered data-driven model form (P3DM) methodology integrates available integral effect tests and separate effects tests to determine the necessary corrections to the model form of the closure laws. In contrast to existing calibration techniques, the methodology modifies the functional form of the closure laws. Based on the functional form of the correction, the missing physics that were not included in the original model can be discovered. The methodology provides the alternative to the machine learning approach, in which the model is discovered in the form of the intractable black-box relation. In this work, the methodology was applied to the CTF subchannel code to improve the prediction of the two-phase flow phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗