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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying a regional aerosol baseline in the eastern North Atlantic using collocated measurements and a mathematical algorithm to mask high-submicron-number-concentration aerosol events

Abstract. High-time-resolution measurements of in situ aerosol and cloud properties provide the ability to study regional atmospheric processes that occur on timescales of minutes to hours. However, one limitation to this approach is that continuous measurements often include periods when the data collected are not representative of the regional aerosol. Even at remote locations, submicron aerosols are pervasive in the ambient atmosphere with many sources. Therefore, periods dominated by local aerosol should be identified before conducting subsequent analyses to understand aerosol regional processes and aerosol–cloud interactions. Here, we present a novel method to validate the identification of regional baseline aerosol data by applying a mathematical algorithm to the data collected at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA). The ENA central facility (C1) includes an aerosol observing system (AOS) for the measurement of aerosol physical, optical, and chemical properties at time resolutions from seconds to minutes. A second temporary supplementary facility (S1), located ∼0.75 km from C1, was deployed for ∼1 year during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments (ACE-ENA) campaign in 2017. First, we investigate the local aerosol at both locations. We associate periods of high submicron number concentration (Ntot) in the fine-mode condensation particle counter (CPC) and size distributions from the Ultra-High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer (UHSAS) as a function of wind direction using a meteorology sensor with local sources. Elevated concentrations of Aitken-mode (< 100 nm diameter) particles were observed in correspondence with the wind directions associated with airport operations. At ENA, the Graciosa Airport and its associated activities were found to be the main sources of high-concentration aerosol events at ENA, causing peaks in 1 min Ntot that exceeded 8000 and 10 000 cm−3 at C1, in summer and winter, respectively, and 5000 cm−3 at S1 in summer. Periods with high Ntot not associated with these wind directions were also observed. As a result, the diverse local sources at ENA yielded a poor relationship between Ntot measurements collected at C1 and S1 (R2=0.03 with a slope =0.05±0.001). As a first approach to mask these events, the time periods when the wind direction was associated with the airport operations (west to northwest and southeast to south at C1 and east to south at S1) were applied. The meteorological masks removed 38.9 % of the data at C1 and 43.4 % at S1, and they did not significantly improve the relationship between the two sites (R2=0.18 with a slope =0.06±0.001). Due to the complexity of high-Ntot events observed at ENA, we develop and validate a mathematical ENA Aerosol Mask (ENA-AM) to identify high-Ntot events using 1 min resolution data from the AOS CPC at C1 and S1. After its parameterization and application, ENA-AM generated a high correlation between Ntot in the summer at C1 and S1 (R2=0.87 with a slope =0.84±0.001). We identified the regional baseline at ENA to be 428±228 cm−3 in the summer and 346±223 cm−3 in the winter. Lastly, we compared masked measurements from the AOS with the ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) during flights over C1 in the summer to understand submicron aerosol vertical mixing over C1. The high correlation (R2=0.71 with a slope of 1.04±0.01) observed between C1 and the AAF Ntot collected within an area of 10 km surrounding ENA and at altitudes < 500 m indicated that the submicron aerosol at ENA was well mixed within the first 500 m of the marine boundary layer during the month of July during ACE-ENA. Our novel method for determining a regional aerosol baseline at ENA can be applied to other time periods and at other locations with validation by a secondary site or additional collocated measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ice Nucleating Particles, Aerosols and Clouds over the Higher Latitude Southern Ocean

Improved understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is a key goal of the DOE-ASR program. Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) are rare aerosol particles that trigger ice formation in clouds. By doing so they may initiate precipitation in clouds, and this impacts cloud lifetime. Nowhere may the role of INPs be manifested so dramatically as in the Southern Ocean (SO). This vast region was the focus of the DOE-ARM MARCUS (Measurement of Aerosols, Radiation and CloUds over the Southern Oceans) and MICRE (Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment) campaigns. In the SO, a deficit of INPs has been a leading hypothesis for why liquid clouds persist, which underlays the bias of global climate models in predicting excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface between 55°S and Antarctica. In this study, we used the 6-month acquisition of INP data on four MARCUS cruises from Hobart, Tasmania, to Antarctica, and the single-location full annual INP cycle observed in MICRE, to gain a holistic, quantitative picture of the INP number concentrations as a function of temperature and their variability over SO latitudes from 43°S to Antarctica. Augmenting initial processing of filter collections of aerosol particles during MARCUS and MICRE, additional freezing studies following thermal treatment (to removes INPs associated with microbes) and peroxide treatment (to remove all organics), as well as ionic chemistry and total organic carbon analysis, were applied to samples to improve time and space resolution, and differentiate marine from terrestrial contributions. We also performed Next Generation Sequencing to determine that bacterial composition can tag periods of enhanced and degraded marine organic INPs and the relative lack of occurrence of land-sourced bio-particles. Through these and other analyses, INP data were categorized into representative source types (e.g., marine versus terrestrially-influenced). The products of our analyses are being used to parameterize ice formation for use in numerical modeling studies to determine if, and when, ocean-derived INPs control the microphysical composition and radiative balance of SO clouds in a manner not presently captured by global models. The specific objectives and approaches proposed were largely accomplished, including: 1) Additional and value-added chemical and biological analyses of archived samples of aerosols were completed to categorize and quantify INP types and concentrations over the SO. 2) Analyses were completed to place INP data in meteorological and aerosol context. 3) Sea spray aerosol INPs were demonstrated to dominate the SO region in all but episodic events. 4) New parameterizations for INP sources relevant to the SO were constructed. 5) Collaborative modeling studies demonstrating the crucial role of INPs in determining cloud radiative and precipitation properties were conducted with MARCUS and MICRE partners. Collaborative publication submissions in this regard ensued within the two year study. This work will advance the science of interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation, to improve their representation in regional and global climate models. Results have informed representation of primary ice crystal nucleation, give inference to the role of secondary processes, and improve investigations of aerosol influences on clouds via ice nucleation over SO high latitudes and similar vast ocean regions. Application will improve representation of such interactions for clouds in both regional and global climate models. The data base and analyses methods applied will continue to serve research studies in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Relative Importance of Assumed Infrasound Mechanisms on the Linear Inversion of Infrasound Time Series at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert far field infrasound data for the equivalent seismo-acoustic time domain moment tensor to assess the relative importance of two assumed seismoacoustic source mechanisms. The infrasound data were produced by a four of the underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). For each SPE event that we invert, we produce three set of atmospheric Green's functions: an average model based on ten years of atmospheric data, as well as two extrema models designed to maximize the variability of atmospheric conditions for the given time-of-day and day-of-year for each SPE event. To parameterize the inversion, we assume that the source of infrasonic energy results from the linear combination of explosion-induced surface spall and linear seismic-to-elastic mode conversion at the Earth's free surface. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source whereas the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall source and/or our modeling of the elastic energy propagation, and data are subsequent conversion to acoustic energy via linear elastic-to-acoustic coupling at the surface, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Relative Importance of Assumed Infrasound Source Terms and Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Linear Inversion of Infrasound Time Series at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert far-field infrasound data for the equivalent seismoacoustic time-domain moment tensor to assess the effects of variable atmospheric models and source phenomena. The infrasound data were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), which was originally designed to study seismoacoustic signal phenomena. The first goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the inversion to the variability of the estimated atmospheric model. The second goal is to determine the relative contribution of two presumed source mechanisms to the observed infrasonic wavefield. Rather than using actual atmospheric observations to estimate the necessary atmospheric Green’s functions, we build a series of atmospheric models that rely on publicly available, regional-scale atmospheric observations. The atmospheric observations are summarized and interpolated onto a 3D grid to produce a model of sound speed at the time of the experiment. For each of four SPE acoustic datasets that we invert, we produced a suite of three atmospheric models for each chemical explosion event, based on 10 yrs of meteorological data: an average model, which averages the atmospheric conditions for 10 yrs prior to each SPE event, as well as two extrema models. To parameterize the inversion, we assume that the source of infrasonic energy results from the linear combination of explosion-induced surface spall and linear seismic-to-elastic mode conversion at the Earth’s free surface. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source. Conversely, the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that 1) the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall and/or 2) our modeling of the elastic energy, and the subsequent conversion to acoustic energy, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of Hurricane Harvey flood event through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models: Challenges and next steps

Using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey flood event as a test case, this study set up a series of sensitivity analyses to highlight three challenges associated with large-scale flood inundation modeling, including (a) model parameterization, (b) errors in digital elevation models, and (c) effects of reservoir retention. Driven by radar-based hourly rainfall data, a series of hydrologic-hydraulic models including the VIC hydrologic model, RAPID routing model, and Flood2D-GPU hydrodynamic model are set up over Harris County, Texas, to simulate flood inundation and hazards. The results demonstrate the importance of hydrologic parameters in improving flood modeling. For a large flood event such as Hurricane Harvey, the effect of the initial water depths is insignificant. The Manning's n values may increase the peak water depth by ~1%, the flood extents by 65km 2 , and the high danger zone by ~6%. On the contrary, the bathymetry correction factors may reduce the flood extent by ~1.4% and the high-danger zone by ~4%. Reducing the reservoir storage capacity to 1% may increase the flood extent by ~4% and the high-danger zone by ~17%. This study may provide supporting information to guide and prioritize the development of future high-performance computing hydrodynamic large-scale flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit rather than parametrized convection may offer even greater fidelity. However, these increased resolutions both allow and require increasingly complex diagnostics for evaluating model fidelity. Here we focus on precipitation evaluation and analyze five 2-month-long dynamically downscaled model runs over the continental United States that employ different convective and microphysics parameterizations, including one high-resolution convection-permitting simulation. All model runs use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model driven by National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. We show that employing a novel rainstorm identification and tracking algorithm that allocates essentially all rainfall to individual precipitation events allows new insights into model biases. Results include that, at least in these runs, model wet bias is driven by excessive areal extent of individual precipitating events, and that the effect is time-dependent, producing excessive diurnal cycle amplitude. This amplified cycle is driven not by new production of events but by excessive daytime enlargement of long-lived precipitation events. Here, we further show that in the domain average, precipitation biases appear best represented as additive offsets. Of all model configurations evaluated, convection-permitting simulations most consistently reduced biases in precipitation event characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precipitation and nitrogen application stimulate soil nitrous oxide emission

Precipitation and nitrogen (N) fertilization are the two most important drivers for soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission. However, the effects of changes in N fertilization and precipitation patterns (i.e., precipitation intensity and frequency) on N 2 O emissions in agricultural fields are still unclear. In this study, we simulated soil N 2 O emission under different precipitation patterns (6 precipitation intensities, and 12 precipitation frequencies by either merging or splitting precipitation events) and N fertilization rates (low, typical, and high N fertilization) in a cornfield using the DeNitrification-DeComposition model. The model was parameterized and validated using meteorological data and N experimental measurements in Nashville, Tennessee, USA. Results showed that soil water filled pore space (WFPS) and simulated soil N 2 O emission increased as precipitation intensity increased. Less frequent but high intensity precipitation treatments reduced the soil WFPS by 25.2% and stimulated soil N 2 O emission by 45.3%, while more frequent but low intensity precipitation treatments increased soil WFPS by 9.0% and reduced soil N 2 O emission by 23.9%. Compared to typical N fertilization, the sensitivity of soil N 2 O emission to precipitation was higher under high N than low N fertilization treatments, and the response ratios were 50.0% and 40.1%, respectively. There was significant interactive effect of precipitation intensity and N fertilization on soil N 2 O emission. Furthermore, these findings improved our understanding of precipitation and N impacts on soil N 2 O emissions and provided useful knowledge for irrigation and N fertilizer management in agriculture to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coordinate-Based Seismic Interpolation in Irregular Land Survey: A Deep Internal Learning Approach

Physical and budget constraints often result in irregular sampling, which complicates accurate subsurface imaging. Preprocessing approaches, such as missing trace or shot interpolation, are typically employed to enhance seismic data in such cases. Recently, deep learning has been used to address the trace interpolation problem at the expense of large amounts of training data to adequately represent typical seismic events. Nonetheless, most research in this area has focused on trace reconstruction, with little attention having been devoted to shot interpolation. Furthermore, existing methods assume regularly spaced receivers/sources failing in approximating seismic data from real (irregular) surveys. This work presents a novel shot gather interpolation approach which uses a continuous coordinate-based representation of the acquired seismic wavefield parameterized by a neural network. The proposed unsupervised approach, which we call coordinate-based seismic interpolation (CoBSI), enables the prediction of specific seismic characteristics in irregular land surveys without using external data during neural network training. Importantly, experimental results on real and synthetic 3-D data validate the ability of the proposed method to estimate continuous smooth seismic events in the time-space and frequency-wavenumber domains, improving sparsity or low-rank-based interpolation methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on the Dense Matter Equation of State and Neutron Star Properties from NICER’s Mass–Radius Estimate of PSR J0740+6620 and Multimessenger Observations

In recent years our understanding of the dense matter equation of state (EOS) of neutron stars has significantly improved by analyzing multimessenger data from radio/X-ray pulsars, gravitational wave events, and from nuclear physics constraints. Here we study the additional impact on the EOS from the jointly estimated mass and radius of PSR J0740+6620, presented in Riley et al. by analyzing a combined data set from X-ray telescopes NICER and XMM-Newton. We employ two different high-density EOS parameterizations: a piecewise-polytropic (PP) model and a model based on the speed of sound in a neutron star (CS). Here, at nuclear densities these are connected to microscopic calculations of neutron matter based on chiral effective field theory (EFT) interactions. In addition to the new NICER data for this heavy neutron star, we separately study constraints from the radio timing mass measurement of PSR J0740+6620, the gravitational wave events of binary neutron stars GW190425 and GW170817, and for the latter the associated kilonova AT2017gfo. By combining all these, and the NICER mass-radius estimate of PSR J0030+0451, we find the radius of a 1.4 M ⊙ neutron star to be constrained to the 95% credible ranges 12.33$^{+0.76}_{–0.81}$km (PP model) and 12.18$^{+0.56}_{–0.79}$km (CS model). In addition, we explore different chiral EFT calculations and show that the new NICER results provide tight constraints for the pressure of neutron star matter at around twice saturation density, which shows the power of these observations to constrain dense matter interactions at intermediate densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seismic Tomographic Modeling of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Israel and the Middle East: Improved Resolution through Optimized Model Parameterization

Accurate regional seismic travel-time (RSTT) predictions rely on regional phases (e.g., Pg, Lg, Pn, Sn ) to account for 3D effects in the crust and upper mantle that are not captured by 1D models traditionally used for real-time location. The RSTT prediction model accounts for regional-scale crust and upper mantle structure globally by incorporating regional seismic phases into its travel-time calculations. Previous versions of the RSTT model have used a constant grid cell size of 1°. To improve the tomographic accuracy of recovering velocity structure at regional scales, we, in this study, perform data-driven grid refinement on the RSTT model down to a 0.125° grid (~14 km) in pursuit of two main goals: (1) to test the limits of RSTT capability and accuracy of determined velocity structure through variable grid refinement and (2) to image smaller structures in Israel and the Middle East and illuminate upper mantle dynamics operating in this complex tectonic area. We investigate the effects of model parameterization as grid cell size decreases and the trade-offs between recovered velocity structures. Our final dataset includes 4751 events and 499 stations that recorded 79,344 Pn and 7489 Pg . The variable grid refinement method allows recovery of finer-scale velocity structures and reduces travel-time residuals in areas with the highest data coverage. At smaller grid cell sizes, longer paths need to be upweighted to stabilize the inversion. Results illuminate tectonic features undefined in coarser grid-size models; in particular, we observe mantle perturbations related to the subduction zone around the Cyprian arc and crustal anomalies near the Dead Sea fault and throughout the Anatolian plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Informed Machine Learning from Observations for Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Parameterizations and Analysis

Fusing learning from Earth observations from space and from the ground (e.g., ARM) with newly developed interpretable and generalizable physics-informed model structures to improve the parameterization of clouds and convection and advance the simulation, understanding and analysis of hydrological extreme events. This covers the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Characterization of the Astrophysical Muon–neutrino Flux with 9.5 Years of IceCube Data

We present a measurement of the high-energy astrophysical muon–neutrino flux with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The measurement uses a high-purity selection of 650k neutrino-induced muon tracks from the northern celestial hemisphere, corresponding to 9.5 yr of experimental data. With respect to previous publications, the measurement is improved by the increased size of the event sample and the extended model testing beyond simple power-law hypotheses. An updated treatment of systematic uncertainties and atmospheric background fluxes has been implemented based on recent models. The best-fit single power-law parameterization for the astrophysical energy spectrum results in a normalization of ${\phi }_{@100\mathrm{TeV}}^{{\nu }_{\mu }+{\bar{\nu }}_{\mu }}={1.44}_{-0.26}^{+0.25}\times {10}^{-18}\,{\mathrm{GeV}}^{-1}{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2}{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}{\mathrm{sr}}^{-1}$ and a spectral index ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{SPL}}={2.37}_{-0.09}^{+0.09}$, constrained in the energy range from 15 TeV to 5 PeV. The model tests include a single power law with a spectral cutoff at high energies, a log-parabola model, several source-class-specific flux predictions from the literature, and a model-independent spectral unfolding. The data are consistent with a single power-law hypothesis, however, spectra with softening above one PeV are statistically more favorable at a two-sigma level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simulating Surface and Subsurface Water Balance Changes Due to Burn Severity

Forest fires have a significant impact on hydrology, such as reduced infiltration rates leading to increased flooding. However, post-fire water balance changes and the competing hydrologic response of increased runoff and evapotranspiration as a function of burn severity are not well understood. Comparing pre- and post-fire water balance changes is challenging because measurements of fire-disturbed landscapes with the previously undisturbed character are impractical due to non-repetitive observational conditions. We used a physically based modeling experiment to incorporate burn severity data from the Las Conchas fire to approximate model parameterization to evaluate continuous water balance progression for pre- and post-fire simulations using the same forcing conditions. Fire disturbance decreased evapotranspiration and increased overland flow response to precipitation events. The reduction of evapotranspiration often dominated the new water balance compared with the increase in overland flow, resulting in higher soil moisture. However, this modeling experiment also identified a tipping point where increased overland flow from high burn severity sites eclipses the effect of reduced evapotranspiration on the water balance, causing comparatively drier post-fire soils. In particular, high burn severity sites approach a threshold that results in larger changes to overland flow than changes in evapotranspiration, potentially moving the site to an overland flow dominated regime. The shifts in water balance components have implications for how site conditions will change under a range of burn severity scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

ANALYSIS OF COMMUNICATION PERFORMANCE DEGRADATION OF THE RADIATION TRANSPORT CODE PIDOTS ON HIGH-UTILIZATION, MULTI-USER HPC SYSTEMS

The PIDOTS radiation transport code implements a spatially decomposed Integral Transport Matrix Method (ITMM) solver, which is intended to fully utilize the capabilities of modern, massively parallel high-performance computing (HPC) systems. While the code shows promising results, there was also an unexpected loss of parallel efficiency on the test systems as the number of participating processors grew and the parallelization grain size got finer. We seek to identify and characterize the communication-latency based effects that contribute to this slowdown. Through the creation of a high-level, parameterized representation of the workload of the code, the communication methodology was identified as the likely reason. From there, low-level, InfiniBand communication performance data measured on the Falcon HPC at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was used to produce a discrete-event model of the communication scheme. The data, as well as the model, show that infrequent, large spikes in send/receive latency drive an unexpectedly substantial increase in projected runtime of a code. Furthermore, these effects are more pronounced under the high-utilization, scattered-workload environment of Falcon. Based on results from the model, it can be shown that a high-communication volume, small message-size regime can easily lead to slowdowns of ~5-10x, when compared to ideal results, as the processor count increases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗