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Results for “data space inversion”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

A learning-based data-driven forecast approach for predicting future reservoir performance

Quantification of the predictive uncertainty of subsurface models has long been investigated. The traditional workflow is to calibrate prior models to match observed data, and then use the posterior models to simulate future system performance. Not only are these procedures computationally expensive, but they also have issues in maintaining geological model constraints during the calibration step. Data space inversion (DSI) was introduced recently to predict future system performance without the iterative history matching or model calibration step. In general, DSI approaches seek to establish a statistical relationship between the observed and forecast variables, as well as to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the forecast variables, by using an ensemble of uncalibrated prior models. Existing DSI approaches all require a number of complex transformation and mapping operations, which may deter their widespread use. Here in this study, we introduce a new and simpler DSI approach, the learning-based, data-driven forecast approach (LDFA), by combining dimension reduction and machine learning techniques to quickly provide accurate forecast results and reliably quantify corresponding uncertainty in the results. Our LDFA framework is demonstrated using two supervised learning algorithms, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), on two representative examples from reservoir engineering and geological carbon storage. Results suggest that our approach provides accurate forecast results (e.g., future oil production rate or cumulative injected CO 2 ) and reasonable predictive uncertainty intervals. Our framework is generic and may be applied to other surface and subsurface problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Scalable Space-Time Domain Decomposition Approach for Solving Large Scale Nonlinear Regularized Inverse Ill Posed Problems in 4D Variational Data Assimilation

We address the development of innovative algorithms designed to solve the strong-constraint Four Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVar DA) problems in large scale applications. We present a space-time decomposition approach which employs the whole domain decomposition, i.e. both along the spacial and temporal direction in the overlapping case, and the partitioning of both the solution and the operator. Starting from the global functional defined on the entire domain, we get to a sort of regularized local functionals on the set of sub domains providing the order reduction of both the predictive and the Data Assimilation models. The algorithm convergence is developed. Performance in terms of reduction of time complexity and algorithmic scalability is discussed on the Shallow Water Equations on the sphere. The number of state variables in the model, the number of observations in an assimilation cycle, as well as numerical parameters as the discretization step in time and in space domain are defined on the basis of discretization grid used by data available at repository Ocean Synthesis/Reanalysis Directory of Hamburg University.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design-Space Exploration for Inverse-Design of Wind Turbine Blades Using Data-Driven Methods

The state-of-the-practice aerodynamic design methods for wind turbine blades is typically based on Blade-Element Momentum (BEM) theory using a pre-designed frozen family of airfoils. The airfoils are themselves typically designed using panel methods. The design of the next-generation of large flexible rotors will need to capture the non-linear aerodynamics and three-dimensional flow to reduce the levelized cost of wind energy. Data-driven methods for aerodynamic design using data generated by computational fluid dynamics offer an attractive alternative to BEM-based methods that captures the non-linear aerodynamics of the component airfoils as well as the root and tip sections. In this work, we develop and demonstrate a framework to "smartly" explore the relevant design space in combination with an appropriate automated CFD pipeline to evaluate the aerodynamics of each design. The design-space exploration framework uses appropriate perturbations to the airfoil shape and induction profile from a baseline shape in combination with the inverse-design using BEM. The resulting designs are evaluated using an automated CFD pipeline using the in-house CFD solver framework "Mercury". We perform verification and validation to establish the capability of the Mercury framework to predict the aerodynamic performance of wind turbines. The CFD simulation of the perturbed blade shapes are optimized to restart from the converged baseline simulation to reduce the computational time. Finally, we demonstrate the design-space exploration technique for the design of the outboard section and the full rotor using perturbations to the shape and operating conditions of the NREL 5-MW turbine.

aerodynamic design methods↗

A nonlinear least-squares inverse analysis of strike-slip faulting with application to the San Andreas fault

A nonlinear weighted least-squares analysis was performed for a synthetic elastic layer over a viscoelastic half-space model of strike-slip faulting. Also, an inversion of strain rate data was attempted for the locked portions of the San Andreas fault in California. Based on an eigenvector analysis of synthetic data, it is found that the only parameter which can be resolved is the average shear modulus of the elastic layer and viscoelastic half-space. The other parameters were obtained by performing a suite of inversions for the fault. The inversions on data from the northern San Andreas resulted in predicted parameter ranges similar to those produced by inversions on data from the whole fault.

Williams, Charles A.↗

MAGSAT science investigations

A preliminary magnetization model for the U.S. was produced from MAGSAT data. The double grid processing method resulted in a 100 km source spacing. While some spurious features are present in the map, much of the detail appears to be real. The determination of the optional source spacing for inversion of MAGSAT delta B data is in progress. A fine attitude vector data set was obtained for comparison with the theoretical vector field associated with the magnetization model.

Source record↗

Characteristics of Total Column CO2 Retrievals from the OCO Missions: Biases, Information Content and Implications for Flux Inversions

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3, launched in 2015 and 2019, respectively, are intended to collect and deliver high-resolution observations of CO2 with unprecedented space and time coverage. Observations of CO2 from these remote-sensing missions (also known as XCO2, or column-based average, dry air mole fraction of CO2) are then used by the global carbon cycle community to answer a wide range of science questions, from the distribution and quantification of global and regional CO2 source-sink patterns to quantification of anthropogenic sources at urban scales. Even though we have had the OCO-2 mission flying for a few years now, the retrieval algorithms are continuously evolving and improving to deliver XCO2 retrievals with very high precision and high accuracy (or low biases). In this presentation, we will discuss a simple yet effective quantitative framework that has been developed by the OCO-2 flux team to evaluate the information content of these XCO2 retrievals as soon as they are released, i.e., with lower latency than full-scale flux inversions. This framework serves as a precursor to advanced inverse modeling frameworks and is intended to provide an early but accurate assessment of the signal present in the satellite retrievals, the robustness of that signal, and the ability of these retrievals to resolve patterns in CO2 surface fluxes that cannot be resolved by our current network of surface sites. Specific results will tackle a tiered set of questions that are being addressed using this framework: (a) what are the distribution of retrievals in the different modes of operation and how do they vary in space and time? (b) what is the information that is being given to the inverse modeling frameworks from the space-based data, information above and beyond what is provided by the in-situ data? and (c) how do these factors influence our choices for doing flux inversions with the satellite retrievals? While the primary focus of the results will be on application of this technique to mature OCO-2 retrievals, we will show early results for a couple of months of OCO-3 retrievals. For the time-period that the retrievals from the two missions overlap, we will highlight how this framework allows us to effortlessly put the information from OCO-3 and OCO-2 on an equal footing, thus enabling easy comparison between the two pioneering missions.

Chatterjee, Abhishek↗

Echo mapping of active galactic nuclei broad-line regions: Fundamental algorithms

We formulate and test a series of algorithms for echo mapping the emission-line regions near active galactic nuclei from measurements of correlated variability in their line and continuum light curves. The linear regularization method (LRM) employs a direct inversion of evenly spaced light-curve data, with a regularization parameter that can be used to control the trade-off between noise and resolution. Matrix formulas express the formal solution as well as its variance and covariance in terms of uncertainties in the measurements. Unlike the maximum-entropy method (MEM), LRM applies to kernels with both positive and negative values, but the results are somewhat limited by ringing effects. A positivity constraint proves effective in controlling the ringing. MEM combines regularization and positivity in a natural way, but similar results are also found using positivity constraints with nonentropic regularization functions. Direct inversions of unevenly sampled light curves require interpolating the noisy data. In this case better results are found by solving for both the continuum light curve and kernel function in a simultaneous fit to the data. Our conclusion is that while echo mapping currently gives ambiguous results, the algorithms are not the limiting factor. Progress depends on efforts to increase the accuracy and completeness of sampling of the observed light curves.

Vio, Roberto↗

Scalable Algorithms for Inverse Problems With High-Dimensional Parameter Spaces

Inverse problems, which involve inferring unknown parameters from observed data, present significant computational challenges, especially in large-scale settings with high-dimensional unknown parameters and nonlinear relationships between the unknowns and observations. Bayesian inference provides an approach for addressing these problems, often relying on sequential sampling methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters. However, MCMC methods become computationally demanding as the dimensionality of the problem increases, particularly in large-scale systems where likelihood evaluations rely on solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on large spatial domains with finely resolved meshes. To overcome these limitations, recent advancements have focused on designing scalable computa tional techniques – for both PDE simulations and sampling strategies – to make Bayesian methods feasible for high-dimensional problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data Mining for Faster, Interpretable Solutions to Inverse Problems:A Case Study Using Additive Manufacturing

Solving inverse problems, where we nd the input values that result in desired values of outputs, can be challenging. The solution process is often computationally expensive and it can be di cult to interpret the solution in high-dimensional input spaces. In this paper, we use a problem from additive manufacturing to address these two issues with the intent of making it easier to solve inverse problems and exploit their results. First, focusing on Gaussian process surrogates that are used to solve inverse problems, we describe how a simple modi cation to the idea of tapering can substantially speed up the surrogate without losing accuracy in prediction. Second, we demonstrate that Kohonen self-organizing maps can be used to visualize and interpret the solution to the inverse problem in the high-dimensional input space. For our data set, as not all input dimensions are equally important, we show that using weighted distances results in a better organized map that makes the relationships among the inputs obvious

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Remote sensing of row crop structure and component temperatures using directional radiometric temperatures and inversion techniques

A physically based sensor response model of a row crop was used as the mathematical framework from which several inversion strategies were tested for extracting row structure information and component temperatures using a series of sensor view angles. The technique was evaluated on ground-based radiometric thermal infrared data of a cotton row crop that covered 48 percent of the ground in the vertical projection. The results showed that the accuracies of the predicted row heights and widths, vegetation temperatures, and soil temperatures of the cotton row crop were on the order of 5 cm, 1 deg, and 2 deg C, respectively. The inversion techniques can be applied to directional sensor data from aircraft platforms and even space platforms if the effects of atmospheric absorption and emission can be corrected. In theory, such inversion techniques can be applied to a wide variety of vegetation types and thus can have significant implications for remote sensing research and applications in disciplines that deal with incomplete vegetation canopies.

Kimes, D. S.↗

Selecting Appropriate Model Complexity: An Example of Tracer Inversion for Thermal Prediction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Abstract A major challenge in the inversion of subsurface parameters is the ill‐posedness issue caused by the inherent subsurface complexities and the generally spatially sparse data. Appropriate simplifications of inversion models are thus necessary to make the inversion process tractable and meanwhile preserve the predictive ability of the inversion results. In this study, we investigate the effect of model complexity on fracture aperture inversion and thermal performance prediction in a field‐scale EGS model. Principal component analysis was used to map the aperture field to a low‐dimensional latent space. The complexity of the inversion model was quantitatively represented by the percentage of total variance in the original aperture fields preserved by the latent space. Tracer, pressure and flow rate data were used to invert for fracture aperture through an ensemble‐based inversion method, and the inferred aperture field was used to predict thermal performance. With an over‐simplified aperture model, ensemble collapse occurred. The inverted aperture models failed to resolve necessary flow and transport features, leading to a biased thermal performance prediction. A complex aperture model involved excessive features and was prone to overinterpreting the inversion data. Both the tracer/pressure/flow rate data reproduction and thermal prediction showed significant uncertainties, making it difficult to properly estimate long‐term thermal performance. Fortunately, our results indicate that there exists an appropriate model complexity which can simultaneously match inversion data and predict thermal performance with an acceptable uncertainty. The quality of the fit of tracer data appears to be a useful indicator of such an appropriate model complexity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗

Doppler measurements of the ionosphere on the occasion of the Apollo-Soyuz test project. Part 2: Inversion of differential and rotating Doppler shifts

The preparation of the analytical approach and of the related software used in the inversion of the differential and rotating Doppler data obtained from the ionospheric experiment of the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (ASTP) is discussed. These data were collected in space-to-space paths (between the ASTP Docking Module (DM) and the Apollo Command Service Module and in space-to-ground paths (between the DM and ground). The Doppler links operated at 162 and 324 MHz and have an accuracy better than 3 MHz over 10-sec integration time. The inversion approach was tested with dummy data obtained with a computer simulation. It was found that a measurement accuracy of 1 to 10% in the value of the horizontal electron density gradient at 221-km altitude can be achieved, in space-to-space paths. For space-to-ground paths near the orbital plane, possible effects of the horizontal gradients on the received differential Doppler shifts were identified. It was possible to reduce the gradient-associated errors in the inversion that leads to the columnar electron content by approximately one-half. Accuracies of 5 to 10% in columnar electron content are achievable, with this gradient-compensation technique.

Gay, R. H.↗

Towards fast, accurate predictions of RF simulations via data-driven modeling: Forward and lateral models

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modeling and real-time control applications. More accurate simulations with fast electron diffusion are even slower, requiring multiple hours of run time with parallel processing. The machine learning models use a database of 16,000+ GEN-RAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation, and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods implemented in πScope ensure that the database covers the range of 9 input parameters (n e0 , T e0 , I p , B t , R 0 , n ∥︀ , Z e f f , V loop , P LHCD ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the computation time from minutes-hours to ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space. Data-driven surrogate models also allow for solving inverse and “lateral” problems. A surrogate model for the inverse problem maps from a desired current drive or power deposition profile to a set of input parameters that would result in such a profile, while a surrogate model for the lateral problem maps from a measured experimental quantity such as hard x-ray emission to a current drive or power deposition profile. In conclusion, the πScope database creation workflow is flexible and applicable to other RF simulation codes such as TORIC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physically-based parameterization of spatially variable soil and vegetation using satellite multispectral data

A stochastic-geometric landsurface reflectance model is formulated and tested for the parameterization of spatially variable vegetation and soil at subpixel scales using satellite multispectral images without ground truth. Landscapes are conceptualized as 3-D Lambertian reflecting surfaces consisting of plant canopies, represented by solid geometric figures, superposed on a flat soil background. A computer simulation program is developed to investigate image characteristics at various spatial aggregations representative of satellite observational scales, or pixels. The evolution of the shape and structure of the red-infrared space, or scattergram, of typical semivegetated scenes is investigated by sequentially introducing model variables into the simulation. The analytical moments of the total pixel reflectance, including the mean, variance, spatial covariance, and cross-spectral covariance, are derived in terms of the moments of the individual fractional cover and reflectance components. The moments are applied to the solution of the inverse problem: The estimation of subpixel landscape properties on a pixel-by-pixel basis, given only one multispectral image and limited assumptions on the structure of the landscape. The landsurface reflectance model and inversion technique are tested using actual aerial radiometric data collected over regularly spaced pecan trees, and using both aerial and LANDSAT Thematic Mapper data obtained over discontinuous, randomly spaced conifer canopies in a natural forested watershed. Different amounts of solar backscattered diffuse radiation are assumed and the sensitivity of the estimated landsurface parameters to those amounts is examined.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

LaSDI: Parametric Latent Space Dynamics Identification

Enabling fast and accurate physical simulations with data has become an important area of computational physics to aid in inverse problems, design-optimization, uncertainty quantification, and other various decision-making applications. This paper presents a data-driven framework for parametric latent space dynamics identification procedure that enables fast and accurate simulations. The parametric model is achieved by building a set of local latent space model and designing an interaction among them. An individual local latent space dynamics model achieves accurate solution in a trust region. By letting the set of trust region to cover the whole parameter space, our model shows an increase in accuracy with an increase in training data. Herein we introduce two different types of interaction mechanisms, i.e., point-wise and region-based approach. Both linear and nonlinear data compression techniques are used. We illustrate the framework of Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) enable a fast and accurate solution process on various partial differential equations, i.e., Burgers’ equations, radial advection problem, and nonlinear heat conduction problem, achieving 0 (100)x speed-up and 0 (1)% relative error with respect to the corresponding full order models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗