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Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "nile-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rule-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions), a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," can be found in. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to an aggregation of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flux Cube Reconstruction from Slitless Spectroscopy

Slitless spectroscopy enables efficient, large-area surveys without target preselection, yet it faces challenges from source blending, higher noise, and lost spatial–spectral information. We present an advanced, nonparametric, data-driven algorithm that leverages multiple dispersion angles to reconstruct three-dimensional flux distributions, providing low-resolution integral field unit capabilities from slitless data. By treating each pixel as an independent element, our method naturally handles source confusion without requiring prior assumptions regarding redshifts, templates, or model libraries. We validate the algorithm using simulated Roman Space Telescope wide-field slitless spectroscopy images that are equivalent to what is expected from the High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey. First, we demonstrate that a host-galaxy model reconstructed from multiple dispersion angles can be used to accurately subtract host light from a transient, recovering a Type Ia supernova spectrum with minimal bias. Second, we showcase a high-fidelity flux-cube reconstruction of a complex galaxy, successfully measuring the redshift and recovering continuum, emission, and absorption features. This approach highlights the potential of multi-dispersion-angle slitless data to provide spatially resolved spectral information in a nonparametric way, which is traditionally accessible only with integral field spectroscopy, opening a new window into large, unbiased, and spatially resolved studies of galaxy evolution.

Griggio, M. [Space Telescope Science Institute, Ba↗

DOE OSTI2026

A large-scale benchmarking of deterministic and stochastic derivative-free optimization algorithms

This presentation summarizes our work in the PrOMMiS project on benchmarking of data-driven optimization algorithms and their applications in self-driving laboratories. This work supports the broader project goal of accelerating the identification of promising separation methods and operating conditions for critical minerals separation processes. We present a systematic benchmarking study of 42 data-driven optimization algorithms on a broad collection of 502 test problems. The results identify BAM, GLCCLUSTER, and MULTIMIN as the most effective optimization solvers, with BAM showing the highest overall performance and solving more than 80% of the benchmark problems. The study also shows that no single solver consistently outperforms the others across all problem types, indicating that our future laboratory applications may benefit from using a small set of strong solvers rather than relying on a single method. The presentation also illustrates an in-silico chemical reactor case study showing that data-driven optimization methods can guide autonomous experimentation in a self-driving laboratory and identify optimal operating conditions within a small number of experiments. Overall, the results provide a basis for selecting efficient optimization methods and demonstrate the practical use of data-driven optimization in self-driving laboratory workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Algorithm-guided experimentation for autonomous AI systems in self-driving laboratories

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pre-training Vision Models for the Classification of Alerts from Wide-field Time-domain Surveys

Modern wide-field time-domain surveys facilitate the study of transient, variable and moving phenomena by conducting image differencing and relaying alerts to their communities. Machine learning tools have been used on data from these surveys and their precursors for more than a decade, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which make predictions directly from input images, saw particularly broad adoption through the 2010s. Since then, continually rapid advances in computer vision have transformed the standard practices around using such models. It is now commonplace to use standardized architectures pre-trained on large corpora of everyday images (e.g., ImageNet). In contrast, time-domain astronomy studies still typically design custom CNN architectures and train them from scratch. Here, we explore the effects of adopting various pre-training regimens and standardized model architectures on the performance of alert classification. We find that the resulting models match or outperform a custom, specialized CNN like what is typically used for filtering alerts. Moreover, our results show that pre-training on galaxy images from Galaxy Zoo tends to yield better performance than pre-training on ImageNet or training from scratch. We observe that the design of standardized architectures are much better optimized than the custom CNN baseline, requiring significantly less time and memory for inference despite having more trainable parameters. On the eve of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and other image-differencing surveys, these findings advocate for a paradigm shift in the creation of vision models for alerts, demonstrating that greater performance and efficiency, in time and in data, can be achieved by adopting the latest practices from the computer vision field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identification of Solid-Electrolyte Interphase Species by Joint Characterization of Li-Ion Battery Chemistry by Mass Spectrometry and Electrochemical Reaction Networks

The formation and stability of the solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) play central roles in determining the long-term performance and safety of modern electrochemical energy storage systems. Despite decades of research, the SEI’s heterogeneous, dynamic, and multiphase nature has defied comprehensive molecular-level characterization, creating a critical knowledge gap that limits rational battery design. In this work, we introduce a computational−experimental framework that integrates high-throughput quantum chemistry calculations, data-driven electrochemical reaction networks (eCRNs), stochastic algorithms, and laser desorption/ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (LDI-FTICR-MS) to unravel SEI formation in carbonatebased electrolytes without imposing predefined mechanisms. We constructed the most comprehensive eCRN to date, spanning over 10,000 species and 209 million reactions. Through stochastic network analysis, we successfully recovered 27 species that were previously reported in the literature and predicted 28 novel SEI species nearly doubling our scientific knowledge in this area. Each new species was rigorously confirmed through advanced mass spectral analysis of its distinct molecular and isotopic signatures. We kinetically refined the formation pathways for a select set of both previously reported and novel SEI products, revealing kinetically feasible elementary reaction mechanisms with activation barriers below 1 eV. This computational−experimental approach deepens our molecular-level understanding of SEI chemistry by resolving which species form and through which decomposition mechanisms they emerge. Such knowledge provides the foundation necessary to connect electrolyte composition to the resulting SEI components, a critical step toward a more informed electrolyte development in next-generation lithium-based batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Dynamic Modeling of Smart Inverter

This letter proposes a novel hybrid method for assessing grid-connected three-phase converter interfaced resources (CIR) dynamics with the IEEE standard 1547-2018 grid support functions (GSFs), which blends physics and data-driven techniques. First, the letter derives an analytical model of a CIR to represent the internal physics and data-driven model (DDM) using a system identification algorithm to represent the rest of the dynamics, including the GSF. The derived hybrid model combines the analytical model of CIR and DDM, which balances accuracy and flexibility and is compared with the detailed switched model. Furthermore, the efficacy of the proposed approach to represent the advanced CIR dynamics is substantiated by power hardware-in-the-loop experiment data where real measurements from a commercial CIR are used to cross-validate the proposed approach. Furthermore, the results indicate that despite simple, the hybrid model accurately reproduces the dynamics of the detailed CIR model with an acceptable accuracy.

Data-driven model↗

DOE OSTI2026

End-To-End Decentralized Transmission Line Protection in IBR-Dominated Weak Grids Using Interpretable Data-Driven Methods

Traditional transmission line protection relies on predictable synchronous-based fault signatures, which frequently fail under the non-standard, current-limited fault characteristics of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs). This study investigates how to achieve secure, communication-free fault isolation in IBR-dominated weak grids without relying on opaque, computationally heavy "black-box" machine learning algorithms. To address this, we propose a novel, standalone, and inherently interpretable data-driven protection framework. Unlike centralized methods requiring multi-terminal communication, this decentralized approach relies solely on local measurements using a hierarchical linear-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM). The methodology decomposes the protection task into four sequential stages that mimic traditional protection elements: fault detection and fault direction identification, fault type classification, zone classification, and location estimation. This multi-stage architecture allows for specialized feature engineering at each stage, combining high computational efficiency with logic traceability. The framework's end-to-end performance was validated via C-code and PSCAD/EMTDC co-simulation, utilizing a real-world utility network and an OEM black-box IBR model. The proposed relay achieves 97.2% overall accuracy and provides a reliable trip decision within a 2.5-cycle window. The results confirm 100% accuracy in fundamental fault detection, reliable zone selectivity across low to moderate fault resistances, and robust security against non-fault transients, proving its immediate viability for integration into commercial numerical relays.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Driven Correlated Noise Simulation for the ICEBERG LArTPC

Accurate electronic-noise simulation is essential for low-energy physics in liquid-argon TPCs. More realistic noise modeling allows us to better tune reconstruction algorithms and more reliably assess and optimize signal-detection thresholds. We present a data-driven noise simulation framework developed for the ICEBERG test stand for DUNE that generates synthetic noise waveforms that reproduce both (i) the measured per-channel magnitude of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and (ii) frequency-dependent channel-to-channel correlations observed in ICEBERG noise data. Using a dedicated noise-only dataset, we build a compact noise model containing per-channel FFT-magnitude targets together with a small set of band-wise cross-wire color matrices. White noise is generated in the frequency domain by drawing circular-symmetric complex Gaussian coefficients with random phases and scaling them to match the measured FFT-magnitude targets, and cross-wire correlations are subsequently imposed using the stored color matrices. The model and algorithm were integrated into the LArSoft + Wire-Cell Toolkit simulation chain and validated by comparing waveform structure, frequency-domain spectra, and band-limited correlation matrices from simulated noise and ICEBERG data. This approach can be extended to other LArTPC operating conditions.

Ghosh, Avik [Iowa State U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Accelerating Traction Motor Optimization Design with AI Surrogate Models

The advancement of artificial intelligence systems enables the use of data-driven physics-based surrogate models to explore design spaces rapidly and deeply for engineering projects. This work presents a surrogate model workflow that accelerates electric traction motor design optimization by replacing finite element analysis (FEA) with an artificial neural network (ANN) and using this model in a genetic algorithm for design optimization. A baseline interior permanent-magnet motor is parameterized and sampled to generate FEA-labeled training data, after which a feed-forward ANN predicts key outputs (e.g., loss components and weight). The validated surrogate enables genetic-algorithm optimization and deep search over the design space without new FEA runs, producing Pareto-optimal trade-offs between weight and losses and set of optimized designs for rapid downselection of manufacturable motor designs.

Ribeiro, Pedro [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000921026641)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimization-based approaches to control of connected and automated vehicles: Principles, complexities, applications, challenges, and outlook

Safe and optimal motion control for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) poses a fundamental optimization challenge at the intersection of system complexity, environmental uncertainty, and stringent real-time constraints. Existing surveys address this challenge in isolation – focusing either on specific control techniques or individual uncertainty sources – without providing a unified framework that characterizes the trade-offs among computational tractability, performance verifiability, and adaptive generalization across paradigms. This review addresses that gap by presenting a cohesive analytical framework concentrated on the decision-making and trajectory optimization layers of the CAV autonomy stack. We systematically analyze three major optimization paradigms – first-principles model-based optimization, data-driven methods, and hybrid synergistic architectures – evaluating each against four core complexity axes: problem formulation, constraint handling, optimality guarantees, and robustness. Key applications including platooning, trajectory planning, collision avoidance, and cooperative control are examined to reveal recurring methodological patterns and critical operational constraints that limit real-world performance. Our synthesis identifies verifiable hybrid architectures, incentive-aligned multi-agent cooperation, and hardware-algorithm co-design as the defining research frontiers, and distills a targeted agenda for developing CAV control systems that are simultaneously safe, computationally efficient, and deployable in the full complexity of real-world traffic environments.

Muzahid, Abu Jafar Md [University of Tennessee, Kn↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Performance Optimization of Gamma Spectrometers With Many Channels

In gamma spectrometers with variable spectroscopic performance across many channels (e.g., many pixels or voxels), a tradeoff exists between including data from successively worse-performing readout channels and increasing efficiency. Brute-force calculation of the optimal set of included channels is exponentially infeasible as the number of channels grows, and approximate methods are required. In this work, we present a data-driven framework for attempting to find near-optimal sets of included detector channels. The framework leverages non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to learn the behavior of gamma spectra across the detector and clusters similarly-performing detector channels together. Performance comparisons are then made between spectra with channel clusters removed, which is more feasible than brute force. The framework is general and can be applied to arbitrary, user-defined performance metrics depending on the application. We apply this framework to optimizing gamma spectra measured by H3D M400 CdZnTe (CZT) spectrometers, which exhibit variable performance across their crystal volumes. In particular, we show several examples optimizing various performance metrics for uranium and plutonium gamma spectra in non-destructive assay (NDA) for nuclear safeguards, and explore trends in performance versus parameters such as clustering algorithm type. We also compare the NMF + clustering pipeline to several non-machine-learning (ML) algorithms, including several greedy algorithms. Although, we find that the NMF + clustering pipeline tends to find the best-performing set of detector voxels, significantly improving over the unoptimized spectra, but that a greedy accumulation of spectra segmented by detector depth can, in some cases, give similar performance improvements in much less computation time.

Energy resolution↗

DOE OSTI2026

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗

DOE OSTI2026

Towards a self-driving trigger at the LHC: adaptive response in real time

Real-time data filtering and selection—or trigger—systems at high-throughput scientific facilities such as the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider must process extremely high-rate data streams under stringent bandwidth, latency, and storage constraints. Yet these systems are typically designed as static, hand-tuned menus of selection criteria grounded in prior knowledge and simulation. In this work, we further explore the concept of a self-driving trigger, an autonomous data-filtering framework that reallocates resources and adjusts thresholds dynamically in real-time to optimize signal efficiency, rate stability, and computational cost as instrumentation and environmental conditions evolve. We introduce a benchmark ecosystem to emulate realistic collider scenarios and demonstrate real-time optimization of a menu including canonical energy sum triggers as well as modern anomaly-detection algorithms that target non-standard event topologies using machine learning. Using simulated data streams and publicly available collision data from the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment, we demonstrate the capability to dynamically and automatically optimize trigger performance under specific cost objectives without manual retuning. Our adaptive strategy shifts trigger design from static menus with heuristic tuning to intelligent, automated, data-driven control, unlocking greater flexibility and discovery potential in future high-energy physics analyses.

Emami, Shaghayegh [Michigan U.] (ORCID:00090007589↗

DOE OSTI2026

PyJMAK: An Open-Source Python Toolkit for Modeling Solid-State Metallurgical Phase Transformations

Accurate prediction of metallurgical phase transformations is an essential basis for autonomous optimization and rapid part qualification. Several methods can be used to estimate the evolution of phase fractions such as JMAK kinetics-based models, phase-field models, thermodynamic models, and data-driven machine learning models. Thermodynamic and phase-field-based methodologies solve multiphysics equations requiring numerous calibration parameters and significant computational resources. As a result, the computation domain is limited to a point or on order of micron-meters. The data-driven models rely on large datasets from experiments and simulations. While the JMAK model only provides information about phase fraction evolution, it can predict this evolution in near real-time using thermal history and thermodynamic data without restriction on the domain. JMAK models have been popularly used by researchers to model phase transformations occuring during additive manufacturing or over arbitrary temperature profiles. Commercial proprietary software such as Abaqus and Ansys or closed-source in-house implementations offer the ability to model JMAK based kinetics to predict phase transformation. However, these software packages are not open-source or freely available for use and development in conjunction with manufacturing machines, sensors, and machine learning algorithms. In addition, the use of the model is restricted by a license token. In contrast, given temperature profiles at multiple points in the domain, this Python-based PyJMAK model can compute phase evolution in parallel due to its stand-alone modular, voxel-based structure, and it can be executed on high-performance computing resources without any license restrictions.

Prabhune, Bhagya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2026

Collaborative Research: Enabling multi-scale studies of magnetic reconnection with interpretable data-driven models

The development of accurate reduced descriptions and improved closures for magnetic reconnection is an important and a long‐standing challenge in plasma physics. The four‐fluid approach, and associated closures, that were investigated have the potential to improve the accuracy of plasma fluid models, capturing physical effects which would otherwise require a kinetic description. If successful, this approach could have an important impact for the modeling of laboratory and space plasmas. The major goals of this project were to develop new machine learning (ML) tools based on sparse and symbolic regression techniques, and to extract interpretable and generalizable reduced models (e.g., in the form of partial differential equations - PDEs) from data generated by first principles plasma simulations. Preserving interpretability of such data‐driven models is key to addressing the long‐standing theoretical and numerical challenges. Prior proof‐of‐principle studies have demonstrated the enormous potential of this approach, by recovering the well‐established hierarchy of plasma equations (from Vlasov to MHD) from data produced by particle‐in‐cell (PIC) simulations. Our goal in this project was to extend and apply these new tools to construct better kinetic closures for magnetic reconnection; to derive better models of particle injection and acceleration by this fundamental plasma process; and to use this understanding to accelerate the development of multi‐scale plasma algorithms. While our immediate focus was on the problem of magnetic reconnection, the tools that were will developed are general and applicable to other areas of plasma physics, and more broadly to many‐body phenomena. We anticipate that the development of these multi‐scale models will have a significant impact across different areas of plasma science, from fusion to space and astrophysical plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗