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At least 19 records

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Zhang, Xiaodong↗

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Agricultural↗

Observations on the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories: (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: NASA Case Studies

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques(MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues relating to data, feature selection and validation of the models are illustrated by examining case studies of the application of MLT to problems in air traffic management at NASA. Further research is needed in the application of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Using Decision Trees to Detect and Isolate Simulated Leaks in the J-2X Rocket Engine

The goal of this work was to use data-driven methods to automatically detect and isolate faults in the J-2X rocket engine. It was decided to use decision trees, since they tend to be easier to interpret than other data-driven methods. The decision tree algorithm automatically "learns" a decision tree by performing a search through the space of possible decision trees to find one that fits the training data. The particular decision tree algorithm used is known as C4.5. Simulated J-2X data from a high-fidelity simulator developed at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and known as the Detailed Real-Time Model (DRTM) was used to "train" and test the decision tree. Fifty-six DRTM simulations were performed for this purpose, with different leak sizes, different leak locations, and different times of leak onset. To make the simulations as realistic as possible, they included simulated sensor noise, and included a gradual degradation in both fuel and oxidizer turbine efficiency. A decision tree was trained using 11 of these simulations, and tested using the remaining 45 simulations. In the training phase, the C4.5 algorithm was provided with labeled examples of data from nominal operation and data including leaks in each leak location. From the data, it "learned" a decision tree that can classify unseen data as having no leak or having a leak in one of the five leak locations. In the test phase, the decision tree produced very low false alarm rates and low missed detection rates on the unseen data. It had very good fault isolation rates for three of the five simulated leak locations, but it tended to confuse the remaining two locations, perhaps because a large leak at one of these two locations can look very similar to a small leak at the other location.

Schwabacher, Mark A.↗

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: Promises and Challenges

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. This paper reviews the current-state-of-the art in applying MLT to aviation operations, its promises and challenges. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This paper compares the methodology used in and issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Some aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for data-driven methods. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into three categories: (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach, (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT and (c) better results using a blend of physics-based methods combined with MLT. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

EDOS operations concept and development approach

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Operations System (EDOS) is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for the capture, level zero processing, distribution, and backup archiving of high speed telemetry data received from EOS spacecraft. All data received will conform to the Consultative Committee for Space Data Standards (CCSDS) recommendations. The major EDOS goals are to: (1) minimize EOS program costs to implement and operate EDOS; (2) respond effectively to EOS growth requirements; and (3) maintain compatibility with existing and enhanced versions of NASA institutional systems required to support EOS spacecraft. In order to meet these goals, the following objectives have been defined for EDOS: (1) standardize EDOS interfaces to maximize utility for future requirements; (2) emphasize life-cycle cost (LCC) considerations (rather than procurement costs) in making design decisions and meeting reliability, maintainability, availability (RMA) and upgradability requirements; (3) implement data-driven operations to the maximum extent possible to minimize staffing requirements and to maximize system responsiveness; (4) provide a system capable of simultaneously supporting multiple spacecraft, each in different phases of their life-cycles; (5) provide for technology insertion features to accommodate growth and future LCC reductions during the operations phase; and (6) provide a system that is sufficiently robust to accommodate incremental performance upgrades while supporting operations. Operations concept working group meetings were facilitated to help develop the EDOS operations concept. This provided a cohesive concept that met with approval of responsible personnel from the start. This approach not only speeded up the development process by reducing review cycles, it also provided a medium for generating good ideas that were immediately molded into feasible concepts. The operations concept was then used as a basis for the EDOS specification. When it was felt that concept elements did not support detailed requirements, the facilitator process was used to resolve discrepancies or to add new concept elements to support the specification. This method provided an ongoing revisal of the operations concept and prevented large revisions at the end of the requirement analysis phase of system development.

Knoble, G.↗

Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Water Security

River basins for which transboundary coordination and governance is a factor are of concern to US national security, yet there is often a lack of sufficient data-driven information available at the needed time horizons to inform transboundary water decision-making for the intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. To address this need, a two-day workshop entitled Transboundary Water: Improving Methodologies and Developing Integrated Tools to Support Global Water Security was held in August 2017 in Maryland. The committee that organized and convened the workshop (the Organizing Committee) included representatives from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), and the US Air Force. The primary goal of the workshop was to advance knowledge on the current US Government and partners' technical information needs and gaps to support national security interests in relation to transboundary water. The workshop also aimed to identify avenues for greater communication and collaboration among the scientific, intelligence, defense, and foreign policy communities. The discussion around transboundary water was considered in the context of the greater global water challenges facing US national security.

Hakimdavar, Raha↗

Developing an Air Quality Index for Space Vehicles and Habitats

The development of an adequate tool to help the layperson understand pollution levels in their environment is of high importance. This tool must be able to inform about the levels of pollution in a simple and understandable way but also can be used for decision-making and mitigation activities to protect the health of the exposed population. One of the most useful and up-to-date approaches for characterizing air pollution is the Air Quality Index (AQI). It is an easily-calculated, powerful, data-driven tool that summarizes a complex phenomenon, such as air pollution, in straightforward indicators. The AQI system has been developed in different countries around the world, mainly for outdoor environments, based on the results of risk assessments, epidemiological studies, and current local air pollution regulations and standards. There is a need for such a system in low gravity indoor environments where air quality is of fundamental importance to astronaut health, with concerns encompassing both gaseous contaminants and particulate matter. Earth-based AQIs cannot be extrapolated to microgravity indoor environments due to different aerosol transport characteristics and altered lung deposition in low and partial gravity. The objectives of this work are to explore what areas of expertise, types of research, and data will be required to formulate a spacecraft-specific AQI. An initial dataset is available for this effort, combined from two aerosol sampling experiments, which have characterized airborne particulate matter on the International Space Station (ISS). We outline future research needs for formulating a narrowly focused version of a widely-used metric, namely, an indoor AQI for future space missions.

Sorek-Hamer, Meytar↗

Web Monitoring of EOS Front-End Ground Operations, Science Downlinks and Level 0 Processing

This paper addresses the efforts undertaken and the technology deployed to aggregate and distribute the metadata characterizing the real-time operations associated with NASA Earth Observing Systems (EOS) high-rate front-end systems and the science data collected at multiple ground stations and forwarded to the Goddard Space Flight Center for level 0 processing. Station operators, mission project management personnel, spacecraft flight operations personnel and data end-users for various EOS missions can retrieve the information at any time from any location having access to the internet. The users are distributed and the EOS systems are distributed but the centralized metadata accessed via an external web server provide an effective global and detailed view of the enterprise-wide events as they are happening. The data-driven architecture and the implementation of applied middleware technology, open source database, open source monitoring tools, and external web server converge nicely to fulfill the various needs of the enterprise. The timeliness and content of the information provided are key to making timely and correct decisions which reduce project risk and enhance overall customer satisfaction. The authors discuss security measures employed to limit access of data to authorized users only.

Cordier, Guy R.↗

In-Time Non-Participant Casualty Risk Assessment to Support Onboard Decision Making for Autonomous Unmanned Aircraft

Numerous operational paradigms, technologies, and missions are emerging as newcomers to the National Airspace System (NAS) develop small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS), personal air vehicles and other Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concepts. As the list of applications expands, maintaining the safety of the current airspace system remains one of the core concerns preventing widespread commercial implementation of these concepts. Further, the risks associated with unmanned aircraft operations themselves have to be recognized and mitigated in a timely manner. Safety-critical risks include, but are not limited to, flight outside of approved airspace, unsafe proximity to people or property, critical system failures, loss-of control, and cyber-security related risks. Instead of reacting to accidents, a set of predictive and data-driven risk monitoring, assessment, and mitigation capabilities are envisioned to help capture and eliminate hazards as these systems become operational. NASA’s System-wide Safety project is performing R&D on such a safety assurance concept. As part of this concept, this paper describes an architecture that continuously monitors a diverse set of onboard and ground-based sources to estimate and predict non-participant casualty risk during flight. Timely identification of the changing nature of this risk can inform decision making processes to mitigate current and impending situations.

Ancel, Ersin↗

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

Taxi Time Prediction at Charlotte Airport Using Fast-Time Simulation and Machine Learning Techniques

Accurate taxi time prediction is required for enabling efficient runway scheduling that can increase runway throughput and reduce taxi times and fuel consumptions on the airport surface. Currently NASA and American Airlines are jointly developing a decision-support tool called Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) that assists airport ramp controllers to make gate pushback decisions and improve the overall efficiency of airport surface traffic. In this presentation, we propose to use Linear Optimized Sequencing (LINOS), a discrete-event fast-time simulation tool, to predict taxi times and provide the estimates to the runway scheduler in real-time airport operations. To assess its prediction accuracy, we also introduce a data-driven analytical method using machine learning techniques. These two taxi time prediction methods are evaluated with actual taxi time data obtained from the SARDA human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation for Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) using various performance measurement metrics. Based on the taxi time prediction results, we also discuss how the prediction accuracy can be affected by the operational complexity at this airport and how we can improve the fast time simulation model before implementing it with an airport scheduling algorithm in a real-time environment.

airport surface traffic↗

Autonomous Assessment and Predictive Capabilities for Low-Altitude Urban Flight Operations

The integration of unmanned aerial vehicles in the national airspace will introduce new vehicle types, technologies, and operational paradigms for which safety must be maintained and hazards mitigated. One approach is to attempt to design for possible hazards and unsafe incidents that can occur at different phases of flight (pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight) and during ground operations. Another is to mitigate safety incidents by implementing changes to policies, procedures, regulations, and design to cover personnel, equipment, and aircraft during operations. These and other techniques, not described herein, are typically conservative or adhoc in that they reduce the likelihood of risk after safety incidents have occurred. In this work, the goal is to develop a more predictive capability to monitor and mitigate risk and hazards to safety “in-time” enough for decisions to be made. In line with NASA’s Aeronautics Mission Directorate Strategic Thrust 5 [1] (In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance), the System-Wide Safety (SWS) project under which this work falls, is developing and demonstrating innovative and safety-oriented solutions that enable modernization and aviation transformation. To that effect, this work will detail data-driven efforts on the SWS project to develop a number of safety-critical services for in-time monitoring and mitigation of hazards to low-altitude flight operations. First, hazards to these operations are identified based on previous work by NASA [2,3] and others in the aerospace industry. These hazards include (i) unsafe proximity to other vehicles, property, and people on the ground, (ii) critical system failures such as communication signal/GPS loss, unexpected propulsion system degradation, engine/power failure, and (iii) operational/environmental issues such as severe weather and gusty winds. For these hazards, safety metrics, which can be quantified and assessed are defined, models to monitor and predict them are developed, and flight test data is generated to develop, validate, and test these models, considering the complex interplay of the different hazards that define them [4-6]. In addition, the uncertainty in the non-deterministic effects that cannot be modeled nor predicted and unknown unknowns that arise after design/testing and during operations must be handled in rigorous manner. As a result, for each of the developed safety metrics, their dependencies on one another are characterized and a framework for handling the uncertainties inherent in the modeling, algorithms, and measurements required for prediction is also developed [7]. To that effect, this presentation will describe the safety metrics and services already developed and underway under the System-Wide Safety project that utilize data-driven techniques for the identification of anomalies, precursors, and trends (APTs) to monitor and mitigate hazards to safety, in-time, for urban flight operations in low-altitude airspace.

Okolo, Wendy A.↗

Teamwork for Oversight of Processes and Systems (TOPS). Implementation guide for TOPS version 2.0, 10 August 1992

As the nation redefines priorities to deal with a rapidly changing world order, both government and industry require new approaches for oversight of management systems, particularly for high technology products. Declining defense budgets will lead to significant reductions in government contract management personnel. Concurrently, defense contractors are reducing administrative and overhead staffing to control costs. These combined pressures require bold approaches for the oversight of management systems. In the Spring of 1991, the DPRO and TRW created a Process Action Team (PAT) to jointly prepare a Performance Based Management (PBM) system titled Teamwork for Oversight of Processes and Systems (TOPS). The primary goal is implementation of a performance based management system based on objective data to review critical TRW processes with an emphasis on continuous improvement. The processes are: Finance and Business Systems, Engineering and Manufacturing Systems, Quality Assurance, and Software Systems. The team established a number of goals: delivery of quality products to contractual terms and conditions; ensure that TRW management systems meet government guidance and good business practices; use of objective data to measure critical processes; elimination of wasteful/duplicative reviews and audits; emphasis on teamwork--all efforts must be perceived to add value by both sides and decisions are made by consensus; and synergy and the creation of a strong working trust between TRW and the DPRO. TOPS permits the adjustment of oversight resources when conditions change or when TRW systems performance indicate either an increase or decrease in surveillance is appropriate. Monthly Contractor Performance Assessments (CPA) are derived from a summary of supporting system level and process-level ratings obtained from objective process-level data. Tiered, objective, data-driven metrics are highly successful in achieving a cooperative and effective method of measuring performance. The teamwork-based culture developed by TOPS proved an unequaled success in removing adversarial relationships and creating an atmosphere of continuous improvement in quality processes at TRW. The new working relationship does not decrease the responsibility or authority of the DPRO to ensure contract compliance and it permits both parties to work more effectively to improve total quality and reduce cost. By emphasizing teamwork in developing a stronger approach to efficient management of the defense industrial base TOPS is a singular success.

Strand, Albert A.↗

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗