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This final report, which contains a research summary and a viewgraph presentation, addresses clustering and data simulation techniques for failure prediction. The researchers applied their techniques to both helicopter gearbox anomaly detection and segmentation of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite imagery.
Accurate taxi time prediction is required for enabling efficient runway scheduling that can increase runway throughput and reduce taxi times and fuel consumptions on the airport surface. Currently NASA and American Airlines are jointly developing a decision-support tool called Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) that assists airport ramp controllers to make gate pushback decisions and improve the overall efficiency of airport surface traffic. In this presentation, we propose to use Linear Optimized Sequencing (LINOS), a discrete-event fast-time simulation tool, to predict taxi times and provide the estimates to the runway scheduler in real-time airport operations. To assess its prediction accuracy, we also introduce a data-driven analytical method using machine learning techniques. These two taxi time prediction methods are evaluated with actual taxi time data obtained from the SARDA human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation for Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) using various performance measurement metrics. Based on the taxi time prediction results, we also discuss how the prediction accuracy can be affected by the operational complexity at this airport and how we can improve the fast time simulation model before implementing it with an airport scheduling algorithm in a real-time environment.
Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles (SEP) are the primary sources of human exposure to high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation in the atmosphere. High-LET radiation is effective at directly breaking DNA strands in biological tissue, or producing chemically active radicals in tissue that alter the cell function, both of which can lead to cancer or other adverse health effects. A prototype operational nowcast model of air-crew radiation exposure is currently under development and funded by NASA. The model predicts air-crew radiation exposure levels from both GCR and SEP that may accompany solar storms. The new air-crew radiation exposure model is called the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model. NAIRAS will provide global, data-driven, real-time exposure predictions of biologically harmful radiation at aviation altitudes. Observations are utilized from the ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the NCEP Global Forecast System), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations characterize the overhead mass shielding and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the incident GCR and SEP particle flux distributions for transport and dosimetry calculations. Radiation exposure rates are calculated using the NASA physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code. An overview of the NAIRAS model is given: the concept, design, prototype implementation status, data access, and example results. Issues encountered thus far and known and/or anticipated hurdles to research to operations transition are also discussed.
Accurate taxi time prediction can be used for more efficient runway scheduling to increase runway throughput and reduce taxi times and fuel consumptions on the airport surface. This paper describes two different approaches to predicting taxi times, which are a data-driven analytical method using machine learning techniques and a fast-time simulation-based approach. These two taxi time prediction methods are applied to realistic flight data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) and assessed with actual taxi time data from the human-in-the-loop simulation for CLT airport operations using various performance measurement metrics. Based on the preliminary results, we discuss how the taxi time prediction accuracy can be affected by the operational complexity at this airport and how we can improve the fast-time simulation model for implementing it with an airport scheduling algorithm in real-time operational environment.
An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.
The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.
A preliminary technical specification for a multicomputer operating system is developed. The operating system is targeted for spaceborne flight missions and provides a broad range of real-time functionality, dynamic remote code-patching capability, and system fault tolerance and long-term survivability features. Dataflow concepts are used for representing application algorithms. Functional features are included to ensure real-time predictability for a class of algorithms which require data-driven execution on an iterative steady state basis. The development environment supports the development of algorithm code, design of control parameters, performance analysis, simulation of real-time dataflow applications, and compiling and downloading of the resulting application.
This project seeks to develop statistical-based machine learning models to characterize the types of errors present when using current systems to predict future aircraft states. These models will be data-driven - based on large quantities of historical data. Once these models are developed, they will be used to infer situations in the historical data where an air-traffic controller intervened on an aircraft's route, even when there is no direct recording of this action.
Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.
This paper considers data collected from an experimental study using high frequency capacitive sensor technology to capture blade tip clearance and tip timing measurements in a rotating turbine engine-like-disk-to predict the disk faults and assess its structural integrity. The experimental results collected at a range of rotational speeds from tests conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center s Rotordynamics Laboratory are evaluated using multiple data-driven anomaly detection techniques to identify abnormalities in the disk. Further, this study presents a select evaluation of an online health monitoring scheme of a rotating disk using high caliber sensors and test the capability of the in-house spin system.
Marketed as the "Software of the Future," Optimal Engineering Systems P.I. EXPERT(TM) technology offers statistical process control and optimization techniques that are critical to businesses looking to restructure or accelerate operations in order to gain a competitive edge. Kennedy Space Center granted Optimal Engineering Systems the funding and aid necessary to develop a prototype of the process monitoring and improvement software. Completion of this prototype demonstrated that it was possible to integrate traditional statistical quality assurance tools with robust optimization techniques in a user- friendly format that is visually compelling. Using an expert system knowledge base, the software allows the user to determine objectives, capture constraints and out-of-control processes, predict results, and compute optimal process settings.
The flight-test community routinely spends considerable time and money to determine a range of flight conditions, called a flight envelope, within which an aircraft is safe to fly. The cost of determining a flight envelope could be greatly reduced if there were a method of safely and accurately predicting the speed associated with the onset of an instability called flutter. Several methods have been developed with the goal of predicting flutter speeds to improve the efficiency of flight testing. These methods include (1) data-based methods, in which one relies entirely on information obtained from the flight tests and (2) model-based approaches, in which one relies on a combination of flight data and theoretical models. The data-driven methods include one based on extrapolation of damping trends, one that involves an envelope function, one that involves the Zimmerman-Weissenburger flutter margin, and one that involves a discrete-time auto-regressive model. An example of a model-based approach is that of the flutterometer. These methods have all been shown to be theoretically valid and have been demonstrated on simple test cases; however, until now, they have not been thoroughly evaluated in flight tests. An experimental apparatus called the Aerostructures Test Wing (ATW) was developed to test these prediction methods.
Benchmarking of prognostic algorithms has been challenging due to limited availability of common datasets suitable for prognostics. In an attempt to alleviate this problem several benchmarking datasets have been collected by NASA's prognostic center of excellence and made available to the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) community to allow evaluation and comparison of prognostics algorithms. Among those datasets are five C-MAPSS datasets that have been extremely popular due to their unique characteristics making them suitable for prognostics. The C-MAPSS datasets pose several challenges that have been tackled by different methods in the PHM literature. In particular, management of high variability due to sensor noise, effects of operating conditions, and presence of multiple simultaneous fault modes are some factors that have great impact on the generalization capabilities of prognostics algorithms. More than 70 publications have used the C-MAPSS datasets for developing data-driven prognostic algorithms. The C-MAPSS datasets are also shown to be well-suited for development of new machine learning and pattern recognition tools for several key preprocessing steps such as feature extraction and selection, failure mode assessment, operating conditions assessment, health status estimation, uncertainty management, and prognostics performance evaluation. This paper summarizes a comprehensive literature review of publications using C-MAPSS datasets and provides guidelines and references to further usage of these datasets in a manner that allows clear and consistent comparison between different approaches.
Operators of the Deep Space Network (DSN) attend to numerous tasks with the overall goal of providing continuous support for the world's deep space missions. This high-stakes operations environment requires operators to understand the state of the Deep Space Network and predict what will happen next. Under the Follow-the-Sun initiative which requires remote operations of the highly complex telecommunications equipment, operators will need to remain aware of the state of the entire network rather than just their own facility, and transitioning fluidly between periods of low activity and periods of high demand. I designed a micro-display for operators to see, at a glance, the state of a Deep Space Network support including its subsystems. Using in-depth user-centered and participatory design techniques to identify information requirements, I designed what I called a Postage Stamp (NTR-49720) for individual operators to be able to maintain awareness of their own assigned supports. However, under Follow the Sun, operators must remain aware of all supports. The area occupied by the Postage Stamp must shrink to allow operators to see the state of the entire system, e.g., via a Big Board posted prominently in the operations room. Micro-displays are tools for mental model re-alignment, helping operators to keep their mental models of how the system works and behaves aligned with the changing state of the complex system. Data-driven micro-displays such as the Postage Stamp and Mini-Stamp display information about the system in a consistent way. Like a traffic light, the format of the micro-display never changes: the operator always knows where to look to find a specific piece of information. The Mini-Stamp always looks like the Mini-Stamp, and all of its data fields always lie in the same place on the micro-display. Real-time data flows through the Mini-Stamp to provide information to the operator.
Algorithm-to-architecture mapping model (ATAMM) is strategy minimizing time needed to periodically execute graphically described, data-driven application algorithm on multiple data processors. Implemented as operating system managing flow of data and dynamically assigns nodes of graph to processors. Predicts throughput versus number of processors available to execute given application algorithm. Includes rules ensuring application algorithm represented by graph executed periodically without deadlock and in shortest possible repetition time. ATAMM proves useful in maximizing effectiveness of parallel computing systems.
Scientists from NASA's Extravehicular Activities (EVA) Physiology Systems and Performance Project help design space suits for future missions, during which astronauts are expected to perform EVA activities on the Lunar or Martian surface. During an EVA, an astronaut's integrated metabolic rate is used to predict how much longer the activity can continue and still provide a safe margin of remaining consumables. For EVAs in the Apollo era, NASA physicians monitored live data feeds of heart rate, O 2 consumption, and liquid cooled garment (LCG) temperatures, which were subjectively combined or compared to produce an estimate of metabolic rate. But these multiple data feeds sometimes provided conflicting estimates of metabolic rate, making real-time calculations of remaining time difficult for physician/monitors. Currently, designs planned for the Constellation Program EVAs utilize an automated, but largely heuristic methodology for incorporating the above three measurements, plus an additional one - CO 2 production, ignoring data that appears in conflict; however a more rigorous model-based approach is desirable. In this study, we show how principal axis factor analysis, in combination with OLS regression and LOWESS smoothing can be used to estimate metabolic rate as a data-driven weighted average of heart rate, O 2 consumption, LCG temperature data, and CO 2 production. Preliminary results suggest less sensitivity to occasional spikes in observed data feeds, and reasonable within-subject reproducibility when applied to subsequent tasks. These methods do not require physician monitoring and as such can be automated in the electronic components of future space suits. With additional validation, our models show promise for increasing astronaut safety, while reducing the need for and potential errors associated with human monitoring of multiple systems.
Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.
Accurate estimation of the gross primary production (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is vital for a better understanding of the spatial-temporal patterns of the global carbon cycle. In this study,we estimate GPP in North America (NA) using the satellite-based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) images at 8-day temporal and 500 meter spatial resolutions, and NCEP-NARR (National Center for Environmental Prediction-North America Regional Reanalysis) climate data. The simulated GPP (GPP (sub VPM)) agrees well with the flux tower derived GPP (GPPEC) at 39 AmeriFlux sites (155 site-years). The GPP (sub VPM) in 2010 is spatially aggregated to 0.5 by 0.5-degree grid cells and then compared with sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data from Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2), which is directly related to vegetation photosynthesis. Spatial distribution and seasonal dynamics of GPP (sub VPM) and GOME-2 SIF show good consistency. At the biome scale, GPP (sub VPM) and SIF shows strong linear relationships (R (sup 2) is greater than 0.95) and small variations in regression slopes ((4.60-5.55 grams Carbon per square meter per day) divided by (milliwatts per square meter per nanometer per square radian)). The total annual GPP (sub VPM) in NA in 2010 is approximately 13.53 petagrams Carbon per year, which accounts for approximately 11.0 percent of the global terrestrial GPP and is within the range of annual GPP estimates from six other process-based and data-driven models (11.35-22.23 petagrams Carbon per year). Among the seven models, some models did not capture the spatial pattern of GOME-2 SIF data at annual scale, especially in Midwest cropland region. The results from this study demonstrate the reliable performance of VPM at the continental scale, and the potential of SIF data being used as a benchmark to compare with GPP models.