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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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First Impressions: Early-time Classification of Supernovae Using Host-galaxy Information and Shallow Learning

Substantial effort has been devoted to the characterization of transient phenomena from photometric information. Automated approaches to this problem have taken advantage of complete phase coverage of an event, limiting their use for triggering rapid follow-up of ongoing phenomena. In this work, we introduce a neural network with a single recurrent layer designed explicitly for early photometric classification of supernovae (SNe). Our algorithm leverages transfer learning to account for model misspecification, host-galaxy photometry to solve the data-scarcity problem soon after discovery, and a custom weighted loss to prioritize accurate early classification. We first train our algorithm using state-of-the-art transient and host-galaxy simulations, then adapt its weights and validate it on the spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia, SNe II, and SNe Ib/c from the Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. On observed data, our method achieves an overall accuracy of 82% ± 2% within 3 days of an event’s discovery, and an accuracy of 87% ± 5% within 30 days of discovery. At both early and late phases, our method achieves comparable or superior results to the leading classification algorithms with a simpler network architecture. These results help pave the way for rapid photometric and spectroscopic follow-up of scientifically valuable transients discovered in massive synoptic surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗