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NASA NTRS2008

Space Debris Symposium (A6.) Measurements and Space Surveillance (1.): Measurements of the Small Particle Debris Cloud from the 11 January, 2007 Chinese Anti-satellite Test

On January 11, 2007, the Chinese military conducted a test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) system, destroying their own Fengyun-1C spacecraft with an interceptor missile. The resulting hypervelocity collision created an unprecedented number of tracked debris - more than 2500 objects. These objects represent only those large enough for the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to track - typically objects larger than about 5-10 cm in diameter. There are expected to be even more debris objects at sizes too small to be seen and tracked by the SSN. Because of the altitude of the target satellite (865 x 845 km orbit), many of the debris are expected to have long orbital lifetimes and contribute to the orbital debris environment for decades to come. In the days and weeks following the ASAT test, NASA was able to use Lincoln Laboratory s Haystack radar on several occasions to observe portions of the ASAT debris cloud. Haystack has the capability of detecting objects down to less than one centimeter in diameter, and a large number of centimeter-sized particles corresponding to the ASAT cloud were clearly seen in the data. While Haystack cannot track these objects, the statistical sampling procedures NASA uses can give an accurate statistical picture of the characteristics of the debris from a breakup event. For years computer models based on data from ground hypervelocity collision tests (e.g., the SOCIT test) and orbital collision experiments (e.g., the P-78 and Delta-180 on-orbit collisions) have been used to predict the extent and characteristics of such hypervelocity collision debris clouds, but until now there have not been good ways to verify these models in the centimeter size regime. It is believed that unplanned collisions of objects in space similar to ASAT tests will drive the long-term future evolution of the debris environment in near-Earth space. Therefore, the Chinese ASAT test provides an excellent opportunity to test the models used to predict the future debris environment. For this study, Haystack detection events are compared to model predictions to test the model assumptions, including debris size distribution, velocity distribution, and assumptions about momentum transfer between the target and interceptor. In this paper we will present the results of these and other measurements on the size and extent of collisional breakup debris clouds.

Matney, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2006

Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. The question to be addressed: are the UCTs detected by MODEST in this inclination/RAAN region related to the Titan 3C-4 breakup? Discussion will include the observational biases in attempting to detect a specific, uncontrolled target during given observing session. These restrictions include: (1) the length of the observing session which is 8 hours or less at any given date or declination; (2) the assumption of ACO elements for detected object when the breakup model predicts debris with non-zero eccentricities; (3) the size and illumination or brightness of the debris predicted by the model and the telescope/sky limiting magnitude.

Barker, Edwin S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Debris Disk Explorer: A Balloon-Borne Coronagraph for Observing Debris Disks

The Debris Disk Explorer (DDX) is a proposed balloon-borne investigation of debris disks around nearby stars. Debris disks are analogs of the Asteroid Belt (mainly rocky) and Kuiper Belt (mainly icy) in our Solar System. DDX will measure the size, shape, brightness, and color of tens of disks. These measurements will enable us to place the Solar System in context. By imaging debris disks around nearby stars, DDX will reveal the presence of perturbing planets via their influence on disk structure, and explore the physics and history of debris disks by characterizing the size and composition of disk dust. The DDX instrument is a 0.75-m diameter off-axis telescope and a coronagraph carried by a stratospheric balloon. DDX will take high-resolution, multi-wavelength images of the debris disks around tens of nearby stars. Two flights are planned; an overnight test flight within the United States followed by a month-long science flight launched from New Zealand. The long flight will fully explore the set of known debris disks accessible only to DDX. It will achieve a raw contrast of 10(exp -7), with a processed contrast of 10(exp -8). A technology benefit of DDX is that operation in the near-space environment will raise the Technology Readiness Level of internal coronagraphs, deformable mirrors, and wavefront sensing and control, all potentially needed for a future space-based telescope for high-contrast exoplanet imaging.

High Altitude Balloon↗
NASA NTRS2008

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Review of the Recent NASA Long-Term Orbital Debris Environment Projection and Active Debris Removal Modeling Activities

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) developed a high fidelity debris evolutionary model, LEGEND (a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), in 2004 to enhance its capability to better model the near-Earth environment. LEGEND can mimic the growth of the historical debris population and project it into the future based on user-defined scenarios. The first major LEGEND study concluded that even without any future launches, the LEO population would continue to increase due to mutual collisions among existing objects. In reality, the increase will be worse than this prediction because of ongoing satellite launches and unexpected major breakups. Even with a full implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures, the LEO population growth is inevitable. To preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations, active debris removal (ADR) must be considered. A follow-up LEGEND ADR study was completed recently. The main results indicate that (1) the mass and collision probability of each object can be used to establish an effective removal selection criterion and (2) a removal rate of ~5 objects per year is sufficient to stabilize the LEO environment. Due to the limitation of removal techniques, however, different target selection criteria (in size, altitude, inclination, etc.) may be more practical. A careful evaluation of the effectiveness of different proposed techniques must be carried out to maximize the long-term benefit to the environment.

Liou, J.C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

NASA/JSC orbital debris study: Debris model

The possibility of the creation of a debris belt around the Earth is discussed. A computer model which describes the near-Earth space environment created by the existing spacecraft and fragments from the associated spent launching vehicle attachments and explosions was developed. The present debris model adopts the mathematical formulations published in a paper by Kessler. Thus, the model uses more rigorous mathematical formulation in calculating the collision rate between two orbiting objects than the one published by Kessler and Cour-Palais (1978). The present model contains many general but detailed analyses on the debris environment such as manipulating and/or sorting the existing debris objects, the physical dimensions of the objects and extrapolating the number density describing to include the unobservable small objects.

Roberts, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA's Long-term Debris Environment and Active Debris Removal Modeling Activities

This slide presentation reviews the modeling activities for modeling of the long-term debris environment, the updated assessments of the environment, and the necessity to model the effectiveness of the technologies aimed at the removal of orbital debris. The model being used is named a LEO to GEO environment debris (LEGEND). It is a high fidelity three dimensional numerical simulation model with the capability to treat objects individually. It uses a Monte Carlo approach and a collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate future satellite breakups and the growth of the debris populations.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Parametric Study on Using Active Debris Removal to Stabilize the Future LEO Debris Environment

Recent analyses of the instability of the orbital debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have reignited the interest in using active debris removal (ADR) to remediate the environment. There are; however, monumental technical, resources, operational, legal, and political challenges in making economically viable ADR a reality. Before a consensus on the need for ADR can be reached, a careful analysis of the effectiveness of ADR must be conducted. The goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of using ADR to preserve the future environment and to guide its implementation to maximize the benefit-cost ratio. This paper describes a comprehensive sensitivity study on using ADR to stabilize the future LEO debris environment. The NASA long-term, orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of many key parameters. These parameters include (1) the starting epoch of ADR implementation, (2) various target selection criteria, (3) the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers, (4) the consequence of targeting specific inclination or altitude regimes, (5) the consequence of targeting specific classes of vehicles, and (6) the timescale of removal. Additional analyses on the importance of postmission disposal and how future launches might affect the requirements to stabilize the environment are also included.

Liou, J.C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of an Inductance In-Line Oil Debris Sensor and Magnetic Plug Oil Debris Sensor

The objective of this research was to compare the performance of an inductance in-line oil debris sensor and magnetic plug oil debris sensor when detecting transmission component health in the same system under the same operating conditions. Both sensors were installed in series in the NASA Glenn Spiral Bevel Gear Fatigue Rig during tests performed on 5 gear sets (pinion/gear) when different levels of damage occurred on the gear teeth. Results of this analysis found both the inductance in-line oil debris sensor and magnetic plug oil debris sensor have benefits and limitations when detecting gearbox component damage.

Dempsey, Paula J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Orbital Debris Remediation: Should We Move, Remove, or Reuse Debris?

One way of reducing the risks orbital debris poses to spacecraft operators is to remediate or “clean up” debris. A piece of debris can be remediated by removing it from space, moving it to avoid collision, or finding a way to recycle it. It is unclear which is the best option, so this panel will explore the trade-offs and move toward developing the best possible portfolio to clean up the orbital environment.

Thomas Colvin↗
NASA NTRS2002

Charged Coupled Device Debris Telescope Observations of the Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environment - Observing Year: 1998

NASA has been using the charged coupled device (CCD) debris telescope (CDT)--a transportable 32-cm Schmidt telescope located near Cloudcroft, New Mexico-to help characterize the debris environment in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). The CDT is equipped with a SITe 512 x 512 CCD camera whose 24 m2 (12.5 arc sec) pixels produce a 1.7 x 1.7-deg field of view. The CDT system can therefore detect l7th-magnitude objects in a 20-sec integration corresponding to an approx. 0.6-m diameter, 0.20 albedo object at 36,000 km. The telescope pointing and CCD operation are computer controlled to collect data automatically for an entire night. The CDT has collected more than 1500 hrs of data since November 1997. This report describes the collection and analysis of 58 nights (approx. 420 hrs) of data acquired in 1998.

Jarvis, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope Observations of the Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environment. Observing Years: 2007-2009

NASA uses the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST), the University of Michigan's 0.61-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, to help characterize the debris environment in geosynchronous orbit; this began in February 2001 and continues to the present day. Detected objects that are found to be on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network cataloged objects list are termed correlated targets (CTs), while those not found on the list are called uncorrelated targets (UCTs). This Johnson Space Center report provides details of observational and data-reduction processes for the entire MODEST dataset acquired in calendar years (CYs) 2007, 2008, and 2009. Specifically, this report describes the collection and analysis of 36 nights of data collected in CY 2007, 43 nights of data collected in CY 2008, and 43 nights of data collected in CY 2009. MODEST is equipped with a 2048 x 2048-pixel charged coupled device camera with a 1.3 by 1.3 deg field of view. This system is capable of detecting objects fainter than 18th magnitude (R filter) using a 5-s integration. This corresponds to a 20-cm diameter, 0.175-albedo object at 36,000 km altitude assuming a diffuse Lambertian phase function. The average number of detections each night over all 3 years was 26. The percentage of this number that represented the UCT population ranged from 34% to 18%, depending on the observing strategy and the field center location. Due to the short orbital arc over which observations are made, the eccentricity of the object s orbit is extremely difficult to measure accurately. Therefore, a circular orbit was assumed when calculating the orbital elements. A comparison of the measured inclination (INC), right ascension of ascending node (RAAN), and mean motion to the quantities for CTs from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network shows acceptable errors. This analysis lends credibility to the determination of the UCT orbital distributions. Figure 1 shows the size distribution of 3,143 objects detected in the data processed for CYs 2007, 2008, and 2009. The actual peak of the absolute magnitude distribution for the functional correlated targets is 10th magnitude, whereas the peak was 11th magnitude in 2002 2003 and 10th magnitude for 2004-2006. An absolute magnitude of 10.5 corresponds to objects with average diameters of 6.3 m, assuming an albedo of 0.175 and a diffuse Lambertian phase function. This result generally agrees with the known sizes of intact satellites. The absolute magnitude distribution for the UCTs is broad, but starts to roll off near 25 cm diameter or 17.5 magnitude. This roll off in the distribution reflects the detection capability of MODEST, not the true nature of the population. The true population is believed to continue at the same slope through fainter magnitudes based on comparisons with the LEO break-up law.

Abercromby, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Orbital Debris and the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

This submission includes 11 presentations prepared by NASA for the Trilateral Safety & Mission Assurance (SMA) Conference from June 24-26th at the ESA Centre for Earth Observation. These presentations encompass various safety & mission assurance topics focused on the conference themes of lunar exploration, space sustainability, new commercial partners & challenges, digital engineering, and the assurance of new technologies. These presentations will be shared amongst an international community of SMA practitioners & leadership to promote mutual dialogue on initiatives & challenges of SMA in an evolving spaceflight field.

OSIRIS↗