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At least 19 records

Leveraging Community and Author Context to Explain the Performance and Bias of Text-Based Deception Detection Models

Deceptive news posts shared in online communities can be detected with NLP models, and much recent research has focused on the development of such models. In this work, we use characteristics of online communities and authors --- the context of how and where content is posted --- to explain the performance of a neural network deception detection model and identify sub-populations who are disproportionately affected by model accuracy or failure. We examine who is posting the content, and where the content is posted to. We find that while author characteristics are better predictors of deceptive content than community characteristics, both characteristics are strongly correlated with model performance. Traditional performance metrics such as F1 score may fail to capture poor model performance on isolated sub-populations such as specific authors, and as such, more nuanced evaluation of deception detection models is critical.

machine learning (ML), machine learning explanatio↗

Evaluating Deception Detection Model Robustness To Linguistic Variation

With the increasing use of automated, machine learning-driven tools and the downstream impact that algorithmic judgements can have, it is critical to develop models that are robust to evolving or manipulated inputs. Evaluating the reliability of multimodal models across linguistic variations to understand model susceptibility to intentional linguistic adversarial attacks as well as natural linguistic variations is essential in this pursuit. We present extensive analysis of model robustness and susceptibility to linguistic variations in the setting of deceptive news detection, a difficult classification task that is an increasingly important problem to solve with the impact of misinformation spread online. We evaluate the effectiveness of incorporating adversarial defense strategies and measure model susceptibility to state-of-the-art adversarial attacks using two types of linguistic attacks — character and word perturbations. We consider two multiclass prediction tasks — a 3-way classification of tweets as trustworthy, propaganda, or disinformation; and a 4-way classification as clickbait, hoax, satire, or conspiracy — and compare the performance of three embeddings that have been state-of-the-art for several NLP tasks — GloVe, ELMo, and BERT — to highlight consistent trends in susceptibility, high confidence misclassifications, and high impact failures. We find that character or mixed ensemble models are the most effective defense mechanisms and that character perturbations are a more effective attack than word perturbations for deception classification.

adversarial evaluation↗

Reading Between the Lines: Measuring the Effects of Linguistic-Based Indicators of Deception on Experts’ Identification and Categorization of Disinformation

There is currently very limited research into how experts analyze and assess potentially fraudulent content in their expertise areas, and most research within the disinformation space involves very limited text samples (e.g., news headlines). The overarching goal of the present study was to explore how an individual’s psychological profile and the linguistic features in text might influence an expert’s ability to discern disinformation/fraudulent content in academic journal articles. At a high level, the current design tasked experts with reading journal articles from their area of expertise and indicating if they thought an article was deceptive or not. Half the articles they read were journal papers that had been retracted due to academic fraud. Demographic and psychological inventory data collected on the participants was combined with performance data to generate insights about individual expert susceptibility to deception. Our data show that our population of experts were unable to reliably detect deception in formal technical writing. Several psychological dimensions such as comfort with uncertainty and intellectual humility may provide some protection against deception. This work informs our understanding of expert susceptibility to potentially fraudulent content within official, technical information and can be used to inform future mitigative efforts and provide a building block for future disinformation work.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Increased Interpretability for Model-Driven Deception: MARS LDRD Project

Machine learning has been proposed as a solution to several cybersecurity solutions and one of the most promising applications is for digital twins for intrusion detection and driving deceptive defense. However, machine learning techniques often result in a black-box function that is difficult for end users to interpret which for deception limits their ability to effectively define decoys. In this report, an approach to validate the equations learned are accurate is provided and demonstrated. Following, begins the process of addressing this issue for a model-driven deception technology that produces equations representing the physical process controlled by operation technology devices. This research was performed by applying subject matter expert context to machine learned models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multifractal Characterization of Distribution Synchrophasors for Cybersecurity Defense of Smart Grids

“Source ID Mix” spoofing emerged as a new type of cyber-attack on Distribution Synchrophasors (DS) where adversaries have the capability to swap the source information of DS without changing the measurement values. Accurate detection of such a highly-deceptive attack is a challenging task especially when the spoofing attack happens on short fragments of DS recorded within a relatively small geographical scale. Herein this letter proposes an effective approach to detect this cyber-attack by realizing the multifractal characteristics of DS measurements. First, the multifractal cross-correlation of DS measured at multiple intra-state locations is revealed. Then the derived correlation is integrated with weighted two-dimensional multifractal surface interpolation to reconstruct quasi high-resolution signals. Finally, informative location-specific signatures are extracted from the high-resolution DS and they are integrated with advanced machine learning techniques for source authentication. Experiments using the real-life DS are performed to verify the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deception-Based Cyber Attacks on Hierarchical Control Systems using Domain-Aware Koopman Learning

Industrial control systems are subject to cyber attacks that produce physical consequences. These attacks can be both hard to detect and protracted. Here, we focus on deception-based sensor bias attacks made against a hierarchical control system where the attacker attempts to be stealthy. We develop a a data-driven, optimization-based attacker model and use the Koopman operator to represent the system dynamics in a domain-aware and computationally efficient manner. Using this model, we compute several different attacks against a high-fidelity commercial building emulator and compare the impacts of those attacks to each other. Finally, we discuss some computational considerations and identify avenues for future research.

koopman operator, Cyber-Physical Security, machine↗

Model Driven Deception for Defense of Operational Technology Environments

Due to the strong integration of real-world physics, OT deception platforms must operate differently than traditional IT deceptions. For instance, turning off a valve will be detected downstream by other sensors because the flow will reduce and stop. Additionally, controllers and applications leverage data from sensors to send control commands to each other. A believable deception must be integrated with the system to project the effects of events. An attack will likely attempt to control the physical process in a negative manner. To make the attacker believe they are achieving their objective, it must predict the effects of these actions, to a reasonable degree. Our approach to simulating a model to generate realistic decoy behavior is explored including description of two approaches: a physics model-based approach and a data driven approach. The performance of two machine learning techniques are investigated in their ability to learn a good enough model of the physics of the system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Metagames and Hypergames for Deception-Robust Control

Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) consist of computing and communication devices integrated with physical components such as sensors and actuators. Increasing connectivity to the Internet for remote monitoring and control has made CPSs more vulnerable to deliberate attacks, which are distinctly different from random perturbations in the system. This provides a way for purely cyber attacks to have physical consequences. Stuxnet is a prominent example of such an attack, one in which the malware acted over an extended period of time while deliberately remaining undetected. Such attacks can be described as Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) -- long-term, stealthy attacks. Here, we extend our previous work on hypergames to develop defender strategies that are robust to deception and do not rely on attack detection. We prove that the defender can bound the attacker payoff with these strategies even when the attacker can choose between different attack modes, and we numerically demonstrate our approach on a realistic building control system. Finally, we discuss next steps in extending this approach towards an operational capability.

hypergames, cyber-physical systems, robust control↗

Machine Intelligence to Detect, Characterise, and Defend against Influence Operations in the Information Environment

Social media has enabled a new era of manipulation in the information and cognitive domains. Deceptive content—misleading, falsified, and fabricated—is routinely created and spread in the modern social media environment with the intent to create confusion and widen political and social divides, and exploit the societal conflict exacerbated by these divides in the real-world (aka physical domain). Such disinformation campaigns demonstrate a threat to the integrity of economic, political, cultural, public health, and national security institutions around the world. In this work we overview our artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities to detect, describe, and defend against information operations on Twitter as an example social platform to understand the influence of misleading and falsified content diffusion and better enable those charged with defending against such manipulation to enable responsive parties to counter it. We first present novel linguistically-informed deep learning (DL) models for misinformation and disinformation detection, and present an in-depth linguistic analysis of psycho-linguistic markers across broad deception categories. We then demonstrate how our models perform in the multilingual and multimodal setting and categorize falsified and misleading content based on the intent to deceive. We also provide a large-scale analysis to describe user behavior and spread patterns while engaging with deceptive content and report novel findings about the immediate diffusion of deceptive content by characterizing the vulnerable sub-populations and their demographics, and explicitly measuring speed and scale of deception spread to uncover who shares deceptive content, how quickly, how much, and how evenly. In addition, we measure audience reactions to misinformation and disinformation at scale, distinguishing the reactions of users identified as bots versus humans. Finally, we take advantage of deep translation and generation models to create unique solutions for real-time defense against digital deception and discuss how to apply causal inference to prescribe and intervene into strategic communications jointly across information, cognitive, and physical domains.

artificial intelligence, deep learning, neural lan↗

Autonomous Cyber Defense Against Dynamic Multi-strategy Infrastructural DDoS Attacks

Dynamic Infrastructural Distributed Denial of Service (I-DDoS) attacks constantly change attack vectors to congest core backhaul links and disrupt critical network availability while evading end-system defenses. To effectively counter these highly dynamic attacks, defense mechanisms need to exhibit adaptive decision strategies for real-time mitigation. This paper presents a novel Autonomous DDoS Defense framework that employs model-based reinforcement agents. The framework continuously learns attack strategies, predicts attack actions, and dynamically determines the optimal composition of defense tactics such as filtering, limiting, and rerouting for flow diversion. Our contributions include extending the underlying formulation of the Markov Decision Process (MDP) to address simultaneous DDoS attack and defense behavior, and accounting for environmental uncertainties. We also propose a fine-grained action mitigation approach robust to classification inaccuracies in Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). Additionally, our reinforcement learning model demonstrates resilience against evasion and deceptive attacks. Evaluation experiments using real-world and simulated DDoS traces demonstrate that our autonomous defense framework ensures the delivery of approximately 96 - 98% of benign traffic despite the diverse range of attack strategies.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗

Sensor and Actuator Attacks on Hierarchical Control Systems with Domain-Aware Operator Theory

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) provide opportunities for cyber attacks to have physical impacts. Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) are a subclass of cyber threats that act stealthily to avoid detection and enable long-term attacks. Here, we build on our past work in APT modelling to combine deception-based sensor bias attacks and direct actuator manipulations in attacks against a hierarchical control system. That past work used the Koopman operator to develop a data-driven, domain-aware, optimization-based attacker model. Using an expansion of this model, we compute several different attacks, including multiple simultaneous attacks, against a high-fidelity commercial building emulator and compare the impacts of those attacks to each other. One next step of interest is to construct a defender system, built on the same modelling approach, designed to detect and mitigate such attacks.

koopman operator, Cyber-Physical Security, machine↗

Biogeochemical Characteristics of Earth's Volcanic Permafrost: An Analog of Extraterrestrial Environments

This article describes a study of frozen volcanic deposits collected from volcanoes Tolbachik and Bezymianny on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, and Deception Island volcano, Antarctica. In addition, we studied suprasnow ash layers deposited after the 2007 eruptions of volcanoes Shiveluch and Bezymianny on Kamchatka. The main objectives were to characterize the presence and survivability of thermophilic microorganisms in perennially frozen volcanic deposits. As opposed to permafrost from the polar regions, viable thermophiles were detected in volcanic permafrost by cultivation, microscopy, and sequencing. In the permafrost of Tolbachik volcano, we observed methane formation by both psychrophilic and thermophilic methanogenic archaea, while at 37°C, methane production was noticeably lower. Thermophilic bacteria isolated from volcanic permafrost from the Deception Island were 99.93% related to Geobacillus stearothermophilus. Furthermore, our data showed biological sulfur reduction to sulfide at 85°C and even at 130°C, where hyperthermophilic archaea of the genus Thermoproteus were registered. Sequences of hyperthermophilic bacteria of the genus Caldicellulosiruptor were discovered in clone libraries from fresh volcanic ash deposited on snow. Microorganisms found in volcanic terrestrial permafrost may serve as a model for the alien inhabitants of Mars, a cryogenic planet with numerous volcanoes. Thermophiles and hyperthermophiles and their metabolic processes represent a guideline for the future exploration missions on Mars.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The trustworthy digital camera: Restoring credibility to the photographic image

The increasing sophistication of computers has made digital manipulation of photographic images, as well as other digitally-recorded artifacts such as audio and video, incredibly easy to perform and increasingly difficult to detect. Today, every picture appearing in newspapers and magazines has been digitally altered to some degree, with the severity varying from the trivial (cleaning up 'noise' and removing distracting backgrounds) to the point of deception (articles of clothing removed, heads attached to other people's bodies, and the complete rearrangement of city skylines). As the power, flexibility, and ubiquity of image-altering computers continues to increase, the well-known adage that 'the photography doesn't lie' will continue to become an anachronism. A solution to this problem comes from a concept called digital signatures, which incorporates modern cryptographic techniques to authenticate electronic mail messages. 'Authenticate' in this case means one can be sure that the message has not been altered, and that the sender's identity has not been forged. The technique can serve not only to authenticate images, but also to help the photographer retain and enforce copyright protection when the concept of 'electronic original' is no longer meaningful.

Friedman, Gary L.↗

The Trustworthy Digital Camera: Restoring Credibility to the Photographic Image

The increasing sophistication of computers has made digital manipulation of photographic images (as well as other digitally-recorded artifacts, such as sound and video) incredibly easy to perform and, as time goes on, increasingly difficult to detect. Today, every picture appearing in newspapers and magazines has been digitally altered to some degree, with the severity varying from the trivial (cleaning up "noise" and removing distracting backgrounds) to the point of deception (articles of clothing removed, heads attached to other people's bodies, the complete rearrangement of city skylines). As the power, flexibility and ubiquity of image-altering computers continues to increase, the well-known adage that "the photograph doesn't lie" will continue to become an anachronism. A solution to this problem comes from the proposed Digital Signature Standard (DSS), which incorporates modern cryptographic techniques to authenticate electronic mail messages...

Friedman, Gary L.↗

High-fidelity model-driven deception platform for cyber-physical systems

A system is described for protecting a cyber-physical system against a potential attacker of the cyber-physical system. The system includes at least one processor configured to: collect historical information about the cyber-physical system, and train, based on the historical information, a machine-learned model to predict future conditions of at least a portion of the cyber-physical system. Responsive to detecting an input signal to the cyber-physical system, the system is configured to output an alert to the cyber-physical system indicative of a potential attacker, and respond to the input signal by simulating, based on the future conditions predicted by the machine-learned model, functionality and communications of the at least a portion of the cyber-physical system.

Edgar, Thomas W.↗

Deep Deception: Exemplars of Adversarial Machine Learning and Countermeasures Applicable to International Safeguards

As a follow-up to our more comprehensive report on Adversarial Machine Learning (AML), here we provide demonstrations of AML attacks against the Limbo image database of UF6 cylinders in a variety of orientations and amongst a variety of distractor images. We demonstrate the Carlini & Wagner AML attack against a subset of Limbo images, with 100% attack success rate; meaning all attacked images were misclassified by a highly accurate trained model, yet the image changes were imperceptible to the human eye. We also demonstrate successful attacks against segmented images (images with more than one targeted object). Finally, we demonstrated the Fast Fourier Transform countermeasure that can be used to detect AML attacks on images. The intent of this and our previous report is to inform the IAEA and stakeholders of both the promise of machine learning, which could greatly improve the efficiency of surveillance monitoring, but also of the real threat of AML and potential defenses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

AGC 226178 and NGVS 3543: Two Deceptive Dwarfs toward Virgo

The two sources AGC 226178 and NGVS 3543, an extremely faint, clumpy, blue stellar system and a low surface brightness dwarf spheroidal, are adjacent systems in the direction of the Virgo cluster. Both have been studied in detail previously, with it being suggested that they are unrelated normal dwarf galaxies or that NGVS 3543 recently lost its gas through ram pressure stripping and AGC 226178 formed from this stripped gas. However, with Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys imaging, we demonstrate that the stellar population of NGVS 3543 is inconsistent with being at the distance of the Virgo cluster and that it is likely a foreground object at approximately 10 Mpc, whereas the stellar population of AGC 226178 is consistent with it being a very young (10–100 Myr) object in the Virgo cluster. Through a reanalysis of the original ALFALFA H i detection, we show that AGC 226178 likely formed from gas stripped from the nearby dwarf galaxy VCC 2034, a hypothesis strengthened by the high metallicity measured with MUSE VLT observations. However, it is unclear whether ram pressure or a tidal interaction is responsible for stripping the gas. Object AGC 226178 is one of at least five similar objects now known toward Virgo. These objects are all young and unlikely to remain visible for over ~500 Myr, suggesting that they are continually produced in the cluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗