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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Development of heavy-duty vehicle representative driving cycles via decision tree regression

Previously, researchers who developed representative driving cycles mainly focused on light-duty vehicles and only considered vehicle speed and related derivations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to develop representative cycles for heavy-duty vehicles. By implementing decision tree regression (DTR) to the Fleet DNA on-road vehicle data, a broader set of metrics, such as engine power and fuel consumption, can be used for more robust cycle development. Additionally, the influence of each metric on the regression target is also accounted for by a weighted number derived through the DTR to enhance the representativenss of the developed cycle. As case studies, we applied the proposed method to five heavy-duty vocations (drayage, long haul, regional haul, local delivery, and transit bus) and derived the most representative cycle, as well as four extreme cycles (maximal energy consumption, maximal power-weighted work, maximal fraction of high speed, and minimal fuel economy) to advance the related alternative powertrain design.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decision Tree Regression to Identify Representative Road Sections for Evaluating Performance of Connected and Automated Class 8 Tractors

Currently, connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technology is being developed for Class 8 tractor trucks aimed at improved safety and fuel economy and reduced CO2 emissions. Despite extensive efforts conducted across the world, the reported efficiency gains were varied from different research groups, raising concerns about the fidelity of models, the performance of control, and the effectiveness of the experimental validation. One root cause for this variation stems from the fact that the efficiency gain obtained from the CAV is sensitive to real-world conditions, including surrounding traffic and road grade. This study presents an approach aimed at identifying representative public road sections and facilitating CAV research from this perspective. By employing the decision tree regression (DTR) method to the Fleet DNA database, the most representative road sections can be identified. High-level metrics and detailed information of the derived road sections are also illustrated and discussed, which demonstrate their representativeness and the effectiveness of the approach. Meanwhile, the capability of this approach can be easily extended by integrating specific constraints into the DTR algorithm. As an example, a specific representative road section with an aggressive road grade profile was also provided via this approach.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing waste heat in wastewater treatment plants for water desalination: Modeling and Multi-Objective optimization of a Multi-Effect desalination system using Decision Tree Regression and Pelican optimization algorithm

This paper examines the feasibility of using waste heat from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) for water desalination. A model was developed to utilize waste heat from the gensets at As Samra WWTP in Jordan, using real data and TRNSYS® software to calculate available waste heat. The desalination process was then modeled with ASPEN PLUS® software, focusing on multi-effect desalination (MED). Both series and parallel configurations for the MED system were compared. The study investigated the effects of system feeding flow rate, feeding pressure, and heat input on productivity, performance ratio, and recovery ratio. The study also introduces a novel optimization technique combining machine learning and modern optimization algorithms to maximize system productivity and performance. Initially, a decision tree regression (DTR) model is developed to establish relationships between key independent variables (flow rate, feed pressure, and heat input) and dependent variables (productivity, performance ratio, and recovery ratio). The Pelican Optimization Algorithm (POA) is then used to identify the optimal values of the independent variables for maximum productivity and performance. The results show that using a series configuration yields a system productivity of 3984.2 kg/hr, a performance ratio of 3.78, and a recovery ratio of 0.991 at a feed flow rate of 4000 kg/hr, feed pressure of 3 bars, and heat input of 719 kW. Optimal productivity (4421 kg/hr), performance ratio (3.81), and recovery ratio (0.851) are achieved at a feed flow rate of 5166 kg/hr, feed pressure of 3.2 bars, and heat input of 794 kW. In conclusion, the techno-economic assessment indicates a levelized cost of water of 1.63 USD/m 3 for parallel configurations and 1.65 USD/m 3 for series configurations, with a payback period of less than two years.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensor selection and tool wear prediction with data‐driven models for precision machining

Abstract Estimation of tool wear in precision machining is vital in the traditional subtractive machining industry to reduce processing cost, improve manufacturing efficiency and product quality. In this vein, fusion of time and frequency‐domain features of commonly sensed signals can provide an early indication of tool wear and improve its prediction accuracy for prognostics and health management. This paper presents a data‐driven methodology and a complete tool chain for the inference of precision machining tool wear from fused machine measurements, such as cutting force, power, audio and vibration signals, and quantify the usefulness of each measurement. Indicators of tool wear are extracted from time‐domain signal statistics, frequency‐domain analysis, and time‐frequency domain analysis. Correlation coefficients between the extracted features (indicators) and the tool wear are used to select the most informative features. Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least‐Squares are used to reduce the dimensionality of the feature space. Regression models, including linear regression, support vector regression, Decision tree regression, neural network regression and Gaussian process regression, are used to predict the tool wear using data from a Haas milling machine performing spiral boss face milling. The performance of the regression models based on subsets of sensors validates the preliminary estimates about the saliency of the sensors. The experimental results show that the proposed methods can predict the machine tool wear precisely, with readily available sensor measurements. Neural network and Gaussian process regression were able to achieve good estimates of tool wear at different machine operating conditions. The most informative signal in predicting tool wear was shown to be the vibration signal. Time‐frequency domain features were the most informative features among the combination of features of three domains. In addition, using partial least squares components extracted from the original features of signals led to higher prediction accuracy.

Han, Seulki↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting solid state material platforms for quantum technologies

Semiconductor materials provide a compelling platform for quantum technologies (QT). However, identifying promising material hosts among the plethora of candidates is a major challenge. Therefore, we have developed a framework for the automated discovery of semiconductor platforms for QT using material informatics and machine learning methods. Different approaches were implemented to label data for training the supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests and gradient boosting. We find that an empirical approach relying exclusively on findings from the literature yields a clear separation between predicted suitable and unsuitable candidates. In contrast to expectations from the literature focusing on band gap and ionic character as important properties for QT compatibility, the ML methods highlight features related to symmetry and crystal structure, including bond length, orientation and radial distribution, as influential when predicting a material as suitable for QT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance of the CMS Level-1 trigger in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV

At the start of Run 2 in 2015, the LHC delivered proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13\TeV. During Run 2 (years 2015–2018) the LHC eventually reached a luminosity of 2.1× 1034 cm-2s-1, almost three times that reached during Run 1 (2009–2013) and a factor of two larger than the LHC design value, leading to events with up to a mean of about 50 simultaneous inelastic proton-proton collisions per bunch crossing (pileup). The CMS Level-1 trigger was upgraded prior to 2016 to improve the selection of physics events in the challenging conditions posed by the second run of the LHC. This paper describes the performance of the CMS Level-1 trigger upgrade during the data taking period of 2016–2018. The upgraded trigger implements pattern recognition and boosted decision tree regression techniques for muon reconstruction, includes pileup subtraction for jets and energy sums, and incorporates pileup-dependent isolation requirements for electrons and tau leptons. In addition, the new trigger calculates high-level quantities such as the invariant mass of pairs of reconstructed particles. The upgrade reduces the trigger rate from background processes and improves the trigger efficiency for a wide variety of physics signals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

QSO photometric redshifts using machine learning and neural networks

ABSTRACT The scientific value of the next generation of large continuum surveys would be greatly increased if the redshifts of the newly detected sources could be rapidly and reliably estimated. Given the observational expense of obtaining spectroscopic redshifts for the large number of new detections expected, there has been substantial recent work on using machine learning techniques to obtain photometric redshifts. Here, we compare the accuracy of the predicted photometric redshifts obtained from deep learning (DL) with the k-nearest neighbour (kNN) and the decision tree regression (DTR) algorithms. We find using a combination of near-infrared, visible, and ultraviolet magnitudes, trained upon a sample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasi-stellar objects, that the kNN and DL algorithms produce the best self-validation result with a standard deviation of σΔz = 0.24 (σΔz(norm) = 0.11). Testing on various subsamples, we find that the DL algorithm generally has lower values of σΔz, in addition to exhibiting a better performance in other measures. Our DL method, which uses an easy to implement off-the-shelf algorithm with neither filtering nor removal of outliers, performs similarly to other, more complex, algorithms, resulting in an accuracy of Δz < 0.1 up to z ∼ 2.5. Applying the DL algorithm trained on our 70 000 strong sample to other independent (radio-selected) data sets, we find σΔz ≤ 0.36 (σΔz(norm) ≤ 0.17) over a wide range of radio flux densities. This indicates much potential in using this method to determine photometric redshifts of quasars detected with the Square Kilometre Array.

Curran, S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Meteorological Forecasting

Fog and inland-penetrating sea-breezes occur often at SRS and have a strong impact on site operations. Site personnel therefore require accurate forecasts of these events, but both are difficult to forecast using traditional techniques. Our goal is to apply machine learning (ML) techniques to the problem of forecasting fog and the sea breeze at the Savannah River Site. We apply several such techniques - decision trees, regression, and a series of classification/regression techniques – and train them using the large datasets collected by our group at SRS and from external organizations that maintain databases of regional meteorological variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Decision Trees for Tensor Regressions

Here, we proposed the tensor-input tree (TT) method for scalar-on-tensor and tensor-on-tensor regression problems. We first address scalar-on-tensor problem by proposing scalar-output regression tree models whose input variables are tensors (i.e., multi-way arrays). We devised and implemented fast randomized and deterministic algorithms for efficient fitting of scalar-on-tensor trees, making TT competitive against tensor-input GP models (Yu, Li, and Liu; Sun et al.). Based on scalar-on-tensor tree models, we extend our method to tensor-on-tensor problems using additive tree ensemble approaches. Theoretical justification and extensive experiments, including testing robustness to entrywise input tensor noise, are provided on real and synthetic datasets to illustrate the performance of TT. Our implementation is provided at https://github.com/hrluo/TensorDecisionTreeRegressor. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Decision tree regressions↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Tropospheric Ozone Levels in Delhi

Ground-level ozone is a pollutant that is harmful to urban populations, particularly in developing countries where it is present in significant quantities. It greatly increases the risk of heart and lung diseases and harms agricultural crops. This study hypothesized that, as a secondary pollutant, ground-level ozone is amenable to 24 h forecasting based on measurements of weather conditions and primary pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. We developed software to analyze hourly records of 12 air pollutants and 5 weather variables over the course of one year in Delhi, India. To determine the best predictive model, eight machine learning algorithms were tuned, trained, tested, and compared using cross-validation with hourly data for a full year. The algorithms, ranked by R2 values, were XGBoost (0.61), Random Forest (0.61), K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (0.55), Support Vector Regression (0.48), Decision Trees (0.43), AdaBoost (0.39), and linear regression (0.39). When trained by separate seasons across five years, the predictive capabilities of all models increased, with a maximum R 2 of 0.75 during winter. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory was the least accurate model for annual training, but had some of the best predictions for seasonal training. Out of five air quality index categories, the XGBoost model was able to predict the correct category 24 h in advance 90% of the time when trained with full-year data. Separated by season, winter is considerably more predictable (97.3%), followed by post-monsoon (92.8%), monsoon (90.3%), and summer (88.9%). These results show the importance of training machine learning methods with season-specific data sets and comparing a large number of methods for specific applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Event-Based Energy Impact Tracking and Forecasting with Limited Measurements for Rooftop Units

Packaged air conditioning units and heat pumps, also known as rooftop units (RTUs), are responsible for almost 133 billion kWh of electricity usage annually on site for space cooling U.S. commercial buildings. In addition, the use of heat pumps is a trend we expect to accelerate as buildings transition from fossil fuel-based heating to electricity as a key step for decarbonizing the U.S. commercial buildings sector. However, the operation conditions and energy use of RTUs and heat pumps are usually not well monitored as they are not commonly integrated with building automation systems and lack exposed sensing and control points. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a framework for tracking and forecasting energy impacts resulting from degradation of performance and improved performance for unit servicing using limited data. The proposed framework makes use of a constrained dataset, specifically measurements of the outdoor air temperature and the power demand of individual RTUs, to track and forecast changes in energy use associated with changes in performance over various temporal horizons ranging from days to weeks. Following the detection of an RTU fault, performance degradation, or performance improvement, the framework employs a prediction model to assess the cumulative energy impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with field-collected data for servicing and degradation examples and compare the predicting accuracy of Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) Regression models to Support Vector Regression and Linear Regression models. The results show that GBDT achieved the best accuracy for time-series validation datasets for the servicing and degradation cases, and the prediction model was able to track the cumulative energy impacts of events. The proposed framework can inform building owners of the cumulative change in energy usage of RTUs associated with performance degradation, performance improvement, or a fault.

packaged air conditioners, packaged heat pumps, ro↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nanosecond machine learning regression with deep boosted decision trees in FPGA for high energy physics

We present a novel application of the machine learning / artificial intelligence method called boosted decision trees to estimate physical quantities on field programmable gate arrays (FPGA). The software package fwXmachina features a new architecture called parallel decision paths that allows for deep decision trees with arbitrary number of input variables. It also features a new optimization scheme to use different numbers of bits for each input variable, which produces optimal physics results and ultraefficient FPGA resource utilization. Problems in high energy physics of proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are considered. Estimation of missing transverse momentum (E T miss ) at the first level trigger system at the High Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) experiments, with a simplified detector modeled by Delphes, is used to benchmark and characterize the firmware performance. The firmware implementation with a maximum depth of up to 10 using eight input variables of 16-bit precision gives a latency value of $\mathcal{O}$(10) ns, independent of the clock speed, and $\mathcal{O}$(0.1)% of the available FPGA resources without using digital signal processors.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2020

MAFLD identifies patients with significant hepatic fibrosis better than NAFLD

Abstract Background & Aims Diagnostic criteria for metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) have been proposed, but not validated. We aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the MAFLD definition vs the existing NAFLD criteria to identify patients with significant fibrosis and to characterize the impact of mild alcohol intake. Methods We enrolled 765 Japanese patients with fatty liver (median age 54 years). MAFLD and NAFLD were diagnosed in 79.6% and 70.7% of patients respectively. Significant fibrosis was defined by FIB‐4 index ≥1.3 and liver stiffness ≥6.6 kPa using shear wave elastography. Mild alcohol intake was defined as <20 g/day. Factors associated with significant fibrosis were analysed by logistic regression and decision‐tree analyses. Results Liver stiffness was higher in MAFLD compared to NAFLD (7.7 vs 6.8 kPa, P = .0010). In logistic regression, MAFLD (OR 4.401; 95% CI 2.144‐10.629; P < .0001), alcohol intake (OR 1.761; 95% CI 1.081‐2.853; P = .0234), and NAFLD (OR 1.721; 95%CI 1.009‐2.951; P = .0463) were independently associated with significant fibrosis. By decision‐tree analysis, MAFLD, but not NAFLD or alcohol consumption was the initial classifier for significant fibrosis. The sensitivity for detecting significant fibrosis was higher for MAFLD than NAFLD (93.9% vs 73.0%). In patients with MAFLD, even mild alcohol intake was associated with an increase in the prevalence of significant fibrosis (25.0% vs 15.5%; P = .0181). Conclusions The MAFLD definition better identifies a group with fatty liver and significant fibrosis evaluated by non‐invasive tests. Moreover, in patients with MAFLD, even mild alcohol consumption is associated with worsening of hepatic fibrosis measures.

Yamamura, Sakura↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive modeling of Néel temperature in austenitic alloys using CALPHAD and data analytics

The Néel temperature is a crucial yet often overlooked parameter in calculating the stacking fault energy (SFE) of austenitic alloys. Several empirical equations have been proposed to estimate the Néel temperature of austenitic alloys, which are then used to calculate the SFE and explain deformation mechanisms. However, these empirical equations, typically derived using linear regression algorithms, are often simplistic and may fail to capture the complex interactions among multiple alloying elements that influence the Néel temperature. Moreover, their applicability is usually limited to specific compositional ranges. In this study, we propose a CALPHAD based approach and develop a surrogate decision tree based regression model capable of capturing the interactions among multiple alloying elements to predict the Néel temperature. Predictions from both the CALPHAD approach and the regression model show close agreement with experimental measurements reported in the literature. In conclusion, the implications of accurate Néel temperature predictions on the calculated SFE and deformation mechanisms are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metal hydride composition-derived parameters as machine learning features for material design and H 2 storage

Though hydrogen is a promising energy carrier for a green future, many challenges persist. One is the difficulty in engineering storage solutions, with metal hydrides being a leading contender among solid-state strategies. To facilitate efficient searching of candidate materials, ridge regression, simple decision trees, random forest ensembles, and gradient boosting ensembles were employed to predict the energy of formation, with the random forest ensemble resulting in the lowest test set error. First, two public databases, Materials Project and HydPark, were searched for metal hydrides. Feature engineering was performed before the models were developed, resulting in electronegativity, density, atomic density, d-character, f-character, band gap, hydrogen weight fraction, magnetization, temperature, and pressure being retained. The models were then benchmarked by the lowest test error before a random forest ensemble was used to populate entries missing energy of formation. Furthermore, all were then scored by hydrogen storage capacity and energy of formation suitability. Readily available features including several derived from only the chemical formula which were found to be highly predictive. and so are promising for high-throughput screening of arbitrary novel hydride formulations and blends for thermodynamic feasibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Initializer for Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence

Power flow computations are fundamental to many power system studies. Obtaining a converged power flow case is not a trivial task especially in large power grids due to the non-linear nature of the power flow equations. One key challenge is that the widely used Newton based power flow methods are sensitive to the initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates, and a bad initial estimate would lead to non-convergence. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a random-forest (RF) machine learning model to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle estimates towards achieving power flow convergence. This method was implemented on a real ERCOT 6102 bus system under various operating conditions. By providing better Newton-Raphson initialization, the RF model precipitated the solution of 2,106 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatches. These cases could not be solved from flat start or by initialization with the voltage solution of a reference case. Finally, results obtained from the RF initializer performed better when compared with DC power flow initialization, Linear regression, and Decision Trees.

random forest↗