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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Multi-objective decision-making under uncertainty: Fuzzy logic methods

Fuzzy logic allows for quantitative representation of vague or fuzzy objectives, and therefore is well-suited for multi-objective decision-making. This paper presents methods employing fuzzy logic concepts to assist in the decision-making process. In addition, this paper describes software developed at NASA Lewis Research Center for assisting in the decision-making process. Two diverse examples are used to illustrate the use of fuzzy logic in choosing an alternative among many options and objectives. One example is the selection of a lunar lander ascent propulsion system, and the other example is the selection of an aeration system for improving the water quality of the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio. The fuzzy logic techniques provided here are powerful tools which complement existing approaches, and therefore should be considered in future decision-making activities.

Hardy, Terry L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multi-objective decision-making under uncertainty: Fuzzy logic methods

Selecting the best option among alternatives is often a difficult process. This process becomes even more difficult when the evaluation criteria are vague or qualitative, and when the objectives vary in importance and scope. Fuzzy logic allows for quantitative representation of vague or fuzzy objectives, and therefore is well-suited for multi-objective decision-making. This paper presents methods employing fuzzy logic concepts to assist in the decision-making process. In addition, this paper describes software developed at NASA Lewis Research Center for assisting in the decision-making process. Two diverse examples are used to illustrate the use of fuzzy logic in choosing an alternative among many options and objectives. One example is the selection of a lunar lander ascent propulsion system, and the other example is the selection of an aeration system for improving the water quality of the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio. The fuzzy logic techniques provided here are powerful tools which complement existing approaches, and therefore should be considered in future decision-making activities.

Hardy, Terry L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

The primary objective of the three year research effort was to explore advanced, non-deterministic aerospace system design methods that may have relevance to designers and analysts. The research pursued emerging areas in design methodology and leverage current fundamental research in the area of design decision-making, probabilistic modeling, and optimization. The specific focus of the three year investigation was oriented toward methods to identify and analyze emerging aircraft technologies in a consistent and complete manner, and to explore means to make optimal decisions based on this knowledge in a probabilistic environment. The research efforts were classified into two main areas. First, Task A of the grant has had the objective of conducting research into the relative merits of possible approaches that account for both multiple criteria and uncertainty in design decision-making. In particular, in the final year of research, the focus was on the comparison and contrasting between three methods researched. Specifically, these three are the Joint Probabilistic Decision-Making (JPDM) technique, Physical Programming, and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. The next element of the research, as contained in Task B, was focused upon exploration of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) methodology developed at ASDL, especially with regards to identification of research needs in the baseline method through implementation exercises. The end result of Task B was the documentation of the evolution of the method with time and a technology transfer to the sponsor regarding the method, such that an initial capability for execution could be obtained by the sponsor. Specifically, the results of year 3 efforts were the creation of a detailed tutorial for implementing the TIES method. Within the tutorial package, templates and detailed examples were created for learning and understanding the details of each step. For both research tasks, sample files and tutorials are attached in electronic form with the enclosed CD.

Marvis, Dimitri N.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

The primary objective of the three year research effort was to explore advanced, non-deterministic aerospace system design methods that may have relevance to designers and analysts. The research pursued emerging areas in design methodology and leverage current fundamental research in the area of design decision-making, probabilistic modeling, and optimization. The specific focus of the three year investigation was oriented toward methods to identify and analyze emerging aircraft technologies in a consistent and complete manner, and to explore means to make optimal decisions based on this knowledge in a probabilistic environment. The research efforts were classified into two main areas. First, Task A of the grant has had the objective of conducting research into the relative merits of possible approaches that account for both multiple criteria and uncertainty in design decision-making. In particular, in the final year of research, the focus was on the comparison and contrasting between three methods researched. Specifically, these three are the Joint Probabilistic Decision-Making (JPDM) technique, Physical Programming, and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. The next element of the research, as contained in Task B, was focused upon exploration of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) methodology developed at ASDL, especially with regards to identification of research needs in the baseline method through implementation exercises. The end result of Task B was the documentation of the evolution of the method with time and a technology transfer to the sponsor regarding the method, such that an initial capability for execution could be obtained by the sponsor. Specifically, the results of year 3 efforts were the creation of a detailed tutorial for implementing the TIES method. Within the tutorial package, templates and detailed examples were created for learning and understanding the details of each step. For both research tasks, sample files and tutorials are attached in electronic form with the enclosed CD.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Enabling Autonomous Rover Science through Dynamic Planning and Scheduling

This paper describes how dynamic planning and scheduling techniques can be used onboard a rover to autonomously adjust rover activities in support of science goals. These goals could be identified by scientists on the ground or could be identified by onboard data-analysis software. Several different types of dynamic decisions are described, including the handling of opportunistic science goals identified during rover traverses, preserving high priority science targets when resources, such as power, are unexpectedly over-subscribed, and dynamically adding additional, ground-specified science targets when rover actions are executed more quickly than expected. After describing our specific system approach, we discuss some of the particular challenges we have examined to support autonomous rover decision-making. These include interaction with rover navigation and path-planning software and handling large amounts of uncertainty in state and resource estimations.

planning↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Development and Evaluation of an Operational Aerobraking Strategy for the Mars 2001 Odyssey Orbiter

The Mars 2001 Odyssey Orbiter successfully completed the aerobraking phase of its mission on January 11, 2002. This paper discusses the support provided by NASA's Langley Research Center to the navigation team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the planning and operational support of Mars Odyssey Aerobraking. Specifically, the development of a three-degree-of-freedom aerobraking trajectory simulation and its application to pre-flight planning activities as well as operations is described. The importance of running the simulation in a Monte Carlo fashion to capture the effects of mission and atmospheric uncertainties is demonstrated, and the utility of including predictive logic within the simulation that could mimic operational maneuver decision-making is shown. A description is also provided of how the simulation was adapted to support flight operations as both a validation and risk reduction tool and as a means of obtaining a statistical basis for maneuver strategy decisions. This latter application was the first use of Monte Carlo trajectory analysis in an aerobraking mission.

Tartabini, Paul V.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Air traffic management as principled negotiation between intelligent agents

The major challenge facing the world's aircraft/airspace system (AAS) today is the need to provide increased capacity, while reducing delays, increasing the efficiency of flight operations, and improving safety. Technologies are emerging that should improve the performance of the system, but which could also introduce uncertainty, disputes, and inefficiency if not properly implemented. The aim of our research is to apply techniques from intelligent control theory and decision-making theory to define an Intelligent Aircraft/Airspace System (IAAS) for the year 2025. The IAAS would make effective use of the technical capabilities of all parts of the system to meet the demand for increased capacity with improved performance.

Wangermann, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic prediction techniques for wind shear hazard assessment

The threat of low-altitude wind shear has prompted development of aircraft-based sensors that measure winds directly on the aircraft's intended flight path. Measurements from these devices are subject to turbulence inputs and measurement error, as well as to the underlying wind profile. Stochastic estimators are developed to process on-board Doppler sensor measurements, producing optimal estimates of the winds along the path. A stochastic prediction technique is described to predict the hazard to the aircraft from the estimates as well as the level of uncertainty of the hazard prediction. The stochastic prediction technique is demonstrated in a simulated microburst wind shear environment. Use of the technique in a decision-making process is discussed.

Stratton, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Realistic Covariance Prediction for the Earth Science Constellation

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. One component of the risk assessment process is computing the collision probability between two space objects. The collision probability is computed using Monte Carlo techniques as well as by numerically integrating relative state probability density functions. Each algorithm takes as inputs state vector and state vector uncertainty information for both objects. The state vector uncertainty information is expressed in terms of a covariance matrix. The collision probability computation is only as good as the inputs. Therefore, to obtain a collision calculation that is a useful decision-making metric, realistic covariance matrices must be used as inputs to the calculation. This paper describes the process used by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center's Earth Science Mission Operations Project to generate realistic covariance predictions for three of the Earth Science Constellation satellites: Aqua, Aura and Terra.

Duncan, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2005

Automated Planning and Scheduling for Space Mission Operations

Research Trends: a) Finite-capacity scheduling under more complex constraints and increased problem dimensionality (subcontracting, overtime, lot splitting, inventory, etc.) b) Integrated planning and scheduling. c) Mixed-initiative frameworks. d) Management of uncertainty (proactive and reactive). e) Autonomous agent architectures and distributed production management. e) Integration of machine learning capabilities. f) Wider scope of applications: 1) analysis of supplier/buyer protocols & tradeoffs; 2) integration of strategic & tactical decision-making; and 3) enterprise integration.

scheduling↗
NASA NTRS2004

Overview of Intelligent Systems and Operations Development

To achieve NASA's ambitious mission objectives for the future, aircraft and spacecraft will need intelligence to take the correct action in a variety of circumstances. Vehicle intelligence can be defined as the ability to "do the right thing" when faced with a complex decision-making situation. It will be necessary to implement integrated autonomous operations and low-level adaptive flight control technologies to direct actions that enhance the safety and success of complex missions despite component failures, degraded performance, operator errors, and environment uncertainty. This paper will describe the array of technologies required to meet these complex objectives. This includes the integration of high-level reasoning and autonomous capabilities with multiple subsystem controllers for robust performance. Future intelligent systems will use models of the system, its environment, and other intelligent agents with which it interacts. They will also require planners, reasoning engines, and adaptive controllers that can recommend or execute commands enabling the system to respond intelligently. The presentation will also address the development of highly dependable software, which is a key component to ensure the reliability of intelligent systems.

Pallix, Joan↗
NASA NTRS1994

Vista goes online: Decision-analytic systems for real-time decision-making in mission control

The Vista project has centered on the use of decision-theoretic approaches for managing the display of critical information relevant to real-time operations decisions. The Vista-I project originally developed a prototype of these approaches for managing flight control displays in the Space Shuttle Mission Control Center (MCC). The follow-on Vista-II project integrated these approaches in a workstation program which currently is being certified for use in the MCC. To our knowledge, this will be the first application of automated decision-theoretic reasoning techniques for real-time spacecraft operations. We shall describe the development and capabilities of the Vista-II system, and provide an overview of the use of decision-theoretic reasoning techniques to the problems of managing the complexity of flight controller displays. We discuss the relevance of the Vista techniques within the MCC decision-making environment, focusing on the problems of detecting and diagnosing spacecraft electromechanical subsystems component failures with limited information, and the problem of determining what control actions should be taken in high-stakes, time-critical situations in response to a diagnosis performed under uncertainty. Finally, we shall outline our current research directions for follow-on projects.

Barry, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS1993

Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA's proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for development of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

Schlater, Nelson J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA"s proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for the develpoment of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

Schlater, Nelson J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Measuring uncertainty by extracting fuzzy rules using rough sets and extracting fuzzy rules under uncertainty and measuring definability using rough sets

Computers are not designed to handle terms where uncertainty is present. To deal with uncertainty, techniques other than classical logic must be developed. This paper examines the concepts of statistical analysis, the Dempster-Shafer theory, rough set theory, and fuzzy set theory to solve this problem. The fundamentals of these theories are combined to provide the possible optimal solution. By incorporating principles from these theories, a decision-making process may be simulated by extracting two sets of fuzzy rules: certain rules and possible rules. From these rules a corresponding measure of how much we believe these rules is constructed. From this, the idea of how much a fuzzy diagnosis is definable in terms of its fuzzy attributes is studied.

Worm, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Knowledge representation in fuzzy logic

The author presents a summary of the basic concepts and techniques underlying the application of fuzzy logic to knowledge representation. He then describes a number of examples relating to its use as a computational system for dealing with uncertainty and imprecision in the context of knowledge, meaning, and inference. It is noted that one of the basic aims of fuzzy logic is to provide a computational framework for knowledge representation and inference in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision. In such environments, fuzzy logic is effective when the solutions need not be precise and/or it is acceptable for a conclusion to have a dispositional rather than categorical validity. The importance of fuzzy logic derives from the fact that there are many real-world applications which fit these conditions, especially in the realm of knowledge-based systems for decision-making and control.

Zadeh, Lotfi A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Buchbinder, Ben↗