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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning and discovering multiple solutions using physics-informed neural networks with random initialization and deep ensemble

In this work we explore the capability of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to discover multiple solutions. Many real-world phenomena governed by nonlinear differential equations (DEs), such as fluid flow, exhibit multiple solutions under the same conditions, yet capturing this solution multiplicity remains a significant challenge. A key difficulty lies in providing appropriate initial conditions or guesses, as widely used time-marching schemes and Newton’s method are highly sensitive to these choices when solving complex computational problems. While machine learning models, particularly PINNs, have shown promise in solving DEs, their ability to capture multiple solutions remains underexplored. In this work, we propose a simple and practical approach using PINNs to learn and discover multiple solutions. We first demonstrate that PINNs, when combined with random initialization and deep ensemble method—originally developed for uncertainty quantification—can effectively uncover multiple solutions to nonlinear ordinary and partial DEs. Although training large ensembles of PINNs may appear computationally demanding, this can be done efficiently using vectorization techniques supported by modern deep learning frameworks, allowing many networks to be trained simultaneously. Our approach highlights the critical role of initialization in shaping solution diversity, addressing an often-overlooked aspect of machine learning for scientific computing. Furthermore, we propose utilizing PINN-generated solutions as initial conditions or initial guesses for conventional numerical solvers to enhance accuracy and efficiency in capturing multiple solutions. Extensive numerical experiments, including the Allen–Cahn equation and cavity flow, where our approach successfully identifies both stable and unstable solutions, validate the effectiveness of our method. These findings establish a general and efficient framework for addressing solution multiplicity in nonlinear DEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning Methods

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret exactly. We systematically compare aleatoric uncertainty measured by two UQ techniques, Deep Ensembles (DE) and Deep Evidential Regression (DER). Our method focuses on both zero-dimensional (0D) and two-dimensional (2D) data, to explore how the UQ methods function for different data dimensionalities. We investigate uncertainty injected on the input and output variables and include a method to propagate uncertainty in the case of input uncertainty so that we can compare the predicted aleatoric uncertainty to the known values. We experiment with three levels of noise. The aleatoric uncertainty predicted across all models and experiments scales with the injected noise level. However, the predicted uncertainty is miscalibrated to $\rm{std}(\sigma_{\rm al})$ with the true uncertainty for half of the DE experiments and almost all of the DER experiments. The predicted uncertainty is the least accurate for both UQ methods for the 2D input uncertainty experiment and the high-noise level. While these results do not apply to more complex data, they highlight that further research on post-facto calibration for these methods would be beneficial, particularly for high-noise and high-dimensional settings.

Nevin, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2025

Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population

Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. We will elucidate the differences in the basic concepts of UQ of physics-based models and data-driven ML models. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties, including Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian Processes and conformal prediction. Lastly, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2025

An open retail boundary dataset for South Korea using open data and computer vision technique

Although delineating retail boundaries is important to explore and comprehend the dynamics of the retail sector, it is hard to find studies specifically addressing it in the South Korean context. This study fills this gap by proposing new retail boundaries across South Korea. To achieve this goal, we employed a variety of retailers and building datasets and proposed a unique computer vision-based framework with a deep ensemble voting technique. As a result, we delineated 6,636 distinct retail boundaries that were validated against existing reference retail boundaries. These newly delineated retail boundaries provide valuable insights for researchers, governments, and other relevant stakeholders by enhancing their understanding of retail geography. This dataset can be used as a foundational resource for analyses on topics such as pandemic recovery, retail gentrification, and the resilience of retail spaces in response to e-commerce growth, ultimately contributing to more robust retail sector research in South Korea.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation of the calculations of final r -process abundance patterns with a neural network

This work explores the construction of a fast emulator for the calculation of the final pattern of nucleosynthesis in the rapid neutron capture process (the r-process). An emulator is built using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN). We train the ANN with nuclear data and relative abundance patterns. We take as input the β-decay half-lives and the one-neutron separation energy of the nuclei in the rare-earth region. The output is the final isotopic abundance pattern. In this work, we focus on the nuclear data and abundance patterns in the rare-earth region to reduce the dimension of the input and output space. We show that the ANN can capture the effect of the changes in the nuclear physics inputs on the final r-process abundance pattern in the adopted astrophysical conditions. We employ the deep ensemble method to quantify the prediction uncertainty of the neural network emulator. The emulator achieves a speed-up by a factor of about 20 000 in obtaining a final abundance pattern in the rare-earth region. The emulator may be utilized in statistical analyses such as uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and sensitivity analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

V-HAMSTeR v1.0.0

V-HAMSTeR is a bioinformatics software tool designed to predict the hosts of viruses directly from genomic sequences. It can be used by researchers to predict animal, prokaryotic, plant, protist or fungal viral hosts including viruses that may be fragmented or discovered in environmental metagenomic datasets. Features & Uses: The software employs a novel dual-stream deep learning architecture that dynamically fuses implicit sequence embeddings from a genomic foundation model with 13 explicit, handcrafted biological features (e.g., coding density and strand switch rates). To ensure maximum reliability, V=HAMSTeR deploys a 5-fold deep ensemble calibrated via Joint Temperature Scaling, providing users with statistically rigorous confidence probabilities. It also features an automated sequence chunking and mean-pooling module to seamlessly process variable-length contigs. Advantages Over Similar Technologies: Existing tools (e.g., IPEV, RNAVirHost) typically rely on either basic k-mers or isolated neural networks. V-HAMSTeR's hybrid architecture captures both broad genomic context and specific biological motifs that standalone foundation models often miss. Furthermore, unlike competitor tools that struggle with incomplete data or exhibit extreme overconfidence, V-HAMSTeR is explicitly benchmarked and mathematically calibrated for fragmented assemblies (1kb–10kb). This makes it uniquely robust, accurate, and trustworthy for the messy reality of real-world environmental viromics.

Grigson, Susie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1 pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic Atmospheric River Ensembles Generated by Deep-AR

This dataset contains 35,850 synthetic landfalling atmospheric river (AR) realizations generated by the Deep-AR two-stage deep-learning framework over the Northeast Pacific and U.S. West Coast. The archive contains 25 stochastic ensemble members for each of 1,434 held-out observed seed events. Each synthetic realization is initialized from conditions 48 hours before the corresponding observed AR landfall and is generated autoregressively at 6-hour intervals over a 144-hour period. Deep-AR combines a deterministic residual network (ResNet) that advances the large-scale atmospheric state with a Wasserstein generative adversarial network (WGAN) that produces stochastic, high-resolution fields. Each HDF5 file contains 0.25° gridded synthetic integrated vapor transport components (qu, qv), 10 m wind components (u10, v10), and 6-hour accumulated precipitation on a common 200 × 480 grid. The files also include coordinate and datetime arrays. This dataset supports AR hazard analysis, ensemble-based uncertainty characterization, precipitation-extremes research, and regional stress testing. Synthetic files follow the naming convention deepar.model.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.vNN.h5. YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS identifies the UTC initial-condition timestamp, which occurs 48 hours before the diagnosed observed landfall, and vNN identifies the zero-padded ensemble member, ranging from v01 through v25. Each synthetic file can be paired with its corresponding observed file by matching the initial-condition timestamp. The paired observed file follows the naming convention deepar.obs.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.h5 and is available in the separately registered oracle/deepar.obs dataset at https://wdh.energy.gov/ds/oracle/deepar.obs (DOI: https://doi.org/10.21947/3377671).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coherence-Induced Deep Thermalization Transition in Random Permutation Quantum Dynamics

We report a phase transition in the projected ensemble—the collection of postmeasurement wave functions of a local subsystem obtained by measuring its complement. The transition emerges in systems undergoing random permutation dynamics, a type of quantum time evolution wherein computational basis states are shuffled without creating superpositions. It separates a phase exhibiting deep thermalization, where the projected ensemble is distributed over Hilbert space in a maximally entropic fashion (Haar random), from a phase where it is minimally entropic (“classical bit-string ensemble”). Crucially, this deep thermalization transition is invisible to the subsystem’s density matrix, which always exhibits thermalization to infinite temperature across the phase diagram. Through a combination of analytical arguments and numerical simulations, we show that the transition is tuned by the total amount of injected by the input state and the measurement basis, and is exhibited robustly across different microscopic models. Our findings represent a novel form of ergodicity-breaking universality in quantum many-body dynamics, characterized not by a failure of regular thermalization, but rather by a failure of deep thermalization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transfer learning of neural surrogates on multifidelity groundwater simulations

Multifidelity data used in the paper published in Advances in Water Resources 206 (2025) 105140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105140 The code used to process the data is openly available on GitHub at https://github.com/Model-Reduction-and-UQ-Group/Transfer_Learning_K_reconstruction Computationally inexpensive surrogates of process-based models, such as deep neural networks, enable ensemble-based computations used in risk assessment, data assimilation, etc. However, generation of large datasets required to train a neural network can be as expensive as the ensemble simulations themselves. We ameliorate this challenge by using data from multifidelity (MF) groundwater simulations and transfer learning (TL) to reduce data generation costs while maintaining model accuracy. As a computational example, we train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to reconstruct permeability fields from saturation maps derived from a multiphase flow model. Starting with very low- and low-fidelity data generated on increasingly coarse meshes, we pretrain the CNN, followed by output-layer training and fine-tuning using only a limited number of high-fidelity samples. We demonstrate the surrogate’s robustness when interpreting low-quality inputs—such as interpolated maps or data affected by noise—which has strong implications for the applicability in practical hydrogeological scenarios. This multilevel MF-TL strategy achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, significantly outperforming high-fidelity-only approaches under the same computational budget.

Chiofalo, Alessia [University of Bologna] (ORCID:0↗