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At least 19 records

Common Cause Failures Dominate and Defeat Redundancy

Common cause failures occur when several malfunctions are produced by a single event or process. They are especially damaging when they eliminate an entire set of redundant systems and disable their intended function. Redundancy is used when the individual system failure probability is unacceptably high. Redundancy can improve the overall system failure probability if the failures are independent, but the reliability gain is limited if there are dependent failures having a common cause. No amount of redundancy can reduce the total failure probability below the common cause failure probability. Common cause failures defeat redundancy. Systems with high reliability requirements often use extensive redundancy. These highly redundant systems rarely fail unless all the redundant components providing a particular function fail. Complete failures of such highly redundant systems are then usually common cause failures. Common cause failures are prevalent in highly redundant, high reliability systems. Common cause failures dominate redundancy. Redundant systems may fail due to specification, design, manufacturing, operations, or maintenance problems that disable all the identical redundant systems. Common cause failures typically account for one tenth of all failures. If the failure probability is relatively low and common cause failures are significant, adding more than two or three redundant identical units usually gives little added reliability improvement. Common cause failures can be reduced by using diverse components with different technologies and manufacturers, by separating and shielding subsystems, and by avoiding shared control, power, or location. External events and shared vulnerabilities may still cause common cause failures.

common cause failures

Common Cause Failures Dominate and Defeat Redundancy

Common cause failures occur when several malfunctions are produced by a single event or process. They are especially damaging when they eliminate an entire set of redundant systems and disable their intended function. Redundancy is used when the individual system failure probability is unacceptably high. Redundancy can improve the overall system failure probability if the failures are independent, but the reliability gain is limited if there are dependent failures having a common cause. No amount of redundancy can reduce the total failure probability below the common cause failure probability. Common cause failures defeat redundancy. Systems with high reliability requirements often use extensive redundancy. These highly redundant systems rarely fail unless all the redundant components providing a particular function fail. Complete failures of such highly redundant systems are then usually common cause failures. Common cause failures are prevalent in highly redundant, high reliability systems. Common cause failures dominate redundancy. Redundant systems may fail due to specification, design, manufacturing, operations, or maintenance problems that disable all the identical redundant systems. Common cause failures typically account for one tenth of all failures. If the failure probability is relatively low and common cause failures are significant, adding more than two or three redundant identical units usually gives little added reliability improvement. Common cause failures can be reduced by using diverse components with different technologies and manufacturers, by separating and shielding subsystems, and by avoiding shared control, power, or location. External events and shared vulnerabilities may still cause common cause failures.

common cause failures

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guidance to Defeat Systematic OT Weaknesses

This research summary outlines the University of Illinois Information Trust Institute (ITI) team's evaluation of whether applying the 12 Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Principles could reduce or eliminate weaknesses identified by the SEI-ETF in engineered systems. ITI's findings suggest that applying CIE principles to weaknesses in MITRE CWE View 1358 can potentially mitigate or eliminate those vulnerabilities.

42 ENGINEERING

Geometric programming design of spacecraft protective structures to defeat earth-orbital space debris

A unique methodology providing global optimization of spacecraft protective structures is presented. The Geometric Programming optimization technique, which has a long history of application to structural design problems, is employed to minimize spacecraft weight of protective structural systems exposed to meteoroid and space debris hypervelocity impacts. The space debris and meteoroid environment are defined followed by the formulation of the general weight objective function. The Wilkinson, Burch, and Nysmith hypervelocity impact predictor models are then used in example cases to display Geometric Programming capabilities. Results show that global nonlinear design optimization can be performed for hypervelocity impact models that follow the Geometric Programming form.

Mog, Robert A.

Defining Baconian Probability for Use in Assurance Argumentation

The use of assurance cases (e.g., safety cases) in certification raises questions about confidence in assurance argument claims. Some researchers propose to assess confidence in assurance cases using Baconian induction. That is, a writer or analyst (1) identifies defeaters that might rebut or undermine each proposition in the assurance argument and (2) determines whether each defeater can be dismissed or ignored and why. Some researchers also propose denoting confidence using the counts of defeaters identified and eliminated-which they call Baconian probability-and performing arithmetic on these measures. But Baconian probabilities were first defined as ordinal rankings which cannot be manipulated arithmetically. In this paper, we recount noteworthy definitions of Baconian induction, review proposals to assess confidence in assurance claims using Baconian probability, analyze how these comport with or diverge from the original definition, and make recommendations for future practice.

Graydon, Patrick J.

Biomechanical drivers of the evolution of butterflies and moths with a coilable proboscis

Current biomechanical models suggest that butterflies and moths use their proboscis as a drinking straw pulling nectar as a continuous liquid column. Our analyses revealed an alternative mode for fluid uptake: drinking bubble trains that help defeat drag. We combined X-ray phase-contrast imaging, optical video microscopy, micro-computed tomography, phylogenetic models of evolution and fluid mechanics models of bubble-train formation to understand the biomechanics of butterfly and moth feeding. Our models suggest that the bubble-train mechanism appeared in the early evolution of butterflies and moths with a proboscis long enough to coil. We propose that, in addition to the ability to drink a continuous column of fluid from pools, the ability to exploit fluid films by capitalizing on bubble trains would have expanded the range of available food sources, facilitating diversification of Lepidoptera.

Palaoro, Alexandre V.

Generative AI for Power Grid Operations

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has captured into the mainstream, demonstrating capabilities that once belonged solely to the realm of human cognition. From defeating world champions in complex games to generating human-quality text and images, Generative AI has proven its potential to revolutionize countless industries. The electric power grid is no exception. Generative AI's ability to process vast amounts of data rapidly, assist decision support and identify patterns could significantly enhance power grid operations. For example, Generative AI could improve state estimation where measurements are not available or integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently with probabilistic forecasting. The key contributions of this whitepaper are outlined below: (1) Comprehensive overview of Generative AI's applications in power grid operations: It highlights the opportunities in areas such as forecasting, state estimation, and demonstrating the potential for enhancing efficiency, reliability, and resilience. (2) Expanding Generative AI's impact through synergies with emerging technologies: The paper introduce NREL developed eGridGPT and explores how AI orchestration, multi-agent systems, and Digital Twins can collaborate to optimize grid operations, addressing the complexities of a decarbonized and electrified future. (3) In-depth analysis of challenges in implementing Generative AI: This includes considerations like data availability and quality, model validation, certification, and ethical concerns, ensuring responsible AI deployment. (4) Emphasizing human-AI collaboration: The whitepaper underscores the importance of trustworthy, transparency, and explainability in AI systems to promote seamless interaction between human operators and AI, ultimately improving decision-making. (5) Exploring future research and development: It identifies critical areas for further advancement to fully realize Generative AI's potential in power grid operations. This whitepaper serves as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers looking to harness Generative AI for a more reliable, stable, and cost-effective power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Puck and Puck/SAW Loop Seals (Final Report)

Tamper-indicating devices (TIDs), also known as seals, play a crucial role in various sectors including international nuclear safeguards, arms control, domestic security, and commercial products, by ensuring that monitored or high-value items are not accessed undetected. These devices do not block access but alert to unauthorized tampering. With adversaries' capabilities evolving, there's a pressing need for seals to advance in terms of effectiveness (e.g., better tamper indication and unique identification), and new technology can improve the efficiency of installation and verification. Passive loop seals, widely used in international nuclear safeguards to ensure that continuity of knowledge is maintained on declared items, face stringent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requirements that surpass those met by commercial products. The metal cup seal (Figure 1, left), a staple IAEA seal, is robust but requires significant resources for post-use verification – specifically, the seal’s unique identity can only be verified at IAEA headquarters after removal from facilities. Further, the seal has been in use for decades and seal types should periodically be replaced to counter adversarial efforts for defeating seals. In 2020, the IAEA outlined about 40 requirements for a new passive loop seal, aiming for in-situ verification, minimal external tool use, unique identification (UID), and clear tamper indication. In response, research and development efforts focused on creating a new passive loop seal that meets these criteria and in 2022 the IAEA announced the completion of the Field Verifiable Passive Loop Seal (FVPS) (Figure 1, right). Concurrently to the IAEA’s efforts, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) designed, developed, and tested two seal versions – Puck and Puck/SAW, with Puck based on the IAEA’s requirements and including a novel visually-obvious tamper response, and Puck/SAW adding additional beneficial capabilities like the ability to receive a unique identifier from a standoff distance and monitoring the wire integrity. Puck/SAW was specifically designed and developed to address sealing applications in dry spent fuel storage facilities, where the number of sealed spent fuel containers results in heavy verification burden and inspector safety issues related to radiation exposure. These efforts are described in this Executive Summary.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P

Using Additive Manufacturing to Repair Gas Turbine Hot Section Components

Ni-based superalloys are used in the hot sections of gas turbine engines due to their excellent high temperature performance. During service the material degrades due to exposure at high temperature and mechanical loads. Hence, utility provides often inspect, service, and repair components in gas turbine engines to ensure safe operation. A major challenge, however, is that the most heat-resistant alloys are generally considered ‘non-weldable’ rendering them difficult to repair via welding operations. In these cases components are often scrapped and then replaced by parts which must be re-manufactured. This burdens utilities with additional cost and supply chain issues can result in long term outages or reduced operating limtis. In this work EPRI and ORNL investigated a proposed repair strategy for gas turbine hot section components. Hot section superalloy GTD-111 was selected as a candidate repair material system and AM material ABD-900 the repair material. Sandwich structures were fabricated via electron beam melting additive manufacturing (EBM-AM) producing tensile bars with gage sections consisting of dissimilar ABD-900 / GTD-111 / ABD-900 material. Metallography revealed that the interface exhibited no deleterious phases or processing defeats. Creep rupture experiments on heat treated material demonstrates that the emulated repair coupons exhibit creep resistance between GTD-111 and ABD-900. This study demonstrates that the proposed EBM-AM repair strategy presents a viable opportunity towards enabling AM repair of gas turbine engine components.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Using Additive Manufacturing to Repair Gas Turbine Hot Section Components

Ni-based superalloys are used in the hot sections of gas turbine engines due to their excellent high temperature performance. During service the material degrades due to exposure at high temperature and mechanical loads. Hence, utility provides often inspect, service, and repair components in gas turbine engines to ensure safe operation. A major challenge, however, is that the most heat-resistant alloys are generally considered ‘non-weldable’ rendering them difficult to repair via welding operations. In these cases components are often scrapped and then replaced by parts which must be re-manufactured. This burdens utilities with additional cost and supply chain issues can result in long term outages or reduced operating limits. In this work EPRI and ORNL investigated a proposed repair strategy for gas turbine hot section components. Hot section superalloy GTD-111 was selected as a candidate repair material system and AM material ABD-900 the repair material. Sandwich structures were fabricated via electron beam melting additive manufacturing (EBM-AM) producing tensile bars with gage sections consisting of dissimilar ABD-900 / GTD-111 / ABD-900 material. Metallography revealed that the interface exhibited no deleterious phases or processing defeats. Creep rupture experiments on heat treated material demonstrates that the emulated repair coupons exhibit creep resistance between GTD-111 and ABD-900. This study demonstrates that the proposed EBM-AM repair strategy presents a viable opportunity towards enabling AM repair of gas turbine engine components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Leveraging Quantum Sensors for Dark Matter Detection

Recent measurements have demonstrated that superconducting qubit decoherence is affected by radiation. As a result, many groups around the world are working to better understand the relationship between different types of radiation and qubit response. This crucial to quantum error correction because radiation can cause correlated loss of information across multiple qubits on a chip, defeating error correction algorithms. Additionally, the fundamental energy scale at which superconducting qubits operate may enable their development as meV-scale detectors for HEP applications, such as the direct detection of dark matter. At Fermilab, we have two world-class underground facilities which are already being used to study this problem: NEXUS and QUIET. I will present on results from operating superconducting qubits in each of these facilities, and the potential implications towards utilizing qubits as sensors for a novel dark matter detector.

Baxter, Daniel [Texas U., Arlington]

Leveraging Quantum Sensors for Dark Matter Detection

Recent measurements have demonstrated that superconducting qubit decoherence is affected by radiation. As a result, many groups around the world are working to better understand the relationship between different types of radiation and qubit response. This crucial to quantum error correction because radiation can cause correlated loss of information across multiple qubits on a chip, defeating error correction algorithms. Additionally, the fundamental energy scale at which superconducting qubits operate may enable their development as meV-scale detectors for HEP applications, such as the direct detection of dark matter. At Fermilab, we have two world-class underground facilities which are already being used to study this problem: NEXUS and QUIET. I will present on results from operating superconducting qubits in each of these facilities, and the potential implications towards utilizing qubits as sensors for a novel dark matter detector.

Baxter, Daniel [Texas U., Arlington]

Ceramic composite protection for turbine disc bursts

Ceramic composite turbine disc protection panels for the A300B were developed using armor technology. Analytical predictions for modifying the ballistic projectile armor system were verified by a test program conducted to qualify the rotor containment system. With only a slight change in the areal density of the armor system a more than two-fold increase in kinetic energy protection level was achieved. Thickness of the fiberglass reinforced plastic backing material was increased to achieve an optimum ratio of ceramic thickness to backing thickness for the different ballistic defeat condition.

Gardner, P. B.

Head-up display for Space Shuttle Orbiter

The very nature of Orbiter's approach and landing task must lead to a discussion of a Head-up Display (HUD) as an aid to this task. HUD has been proposed for Orbiter several times since 1970. However, all previous proposals to add HUD to the Orbiter avionics were defeated due to lack of sophistication and accuracy in state-of-the-art HUD systems, a simpler anticipated Orbiter landing task, and the anticipated role of autoland in the Orbiter approach and landing. Recent advances in HUD state-of-the-art and a more realistic understanding of Orbiter flight and handling characteristics make HUD a viable addition to the Orbiter avionics.

Ivins, M.

Feasibility of self-structured current accessed bubble devices in spacecraft recording systems

The self-structured, current aperture approach to magnetic bubble memory is described. Key results include: (1) demonstration that self-structured bubbles (a lattice of strongly interacting bubbles) will slip by one another in a storage loop at spacings of 2.5 bubble diameters, (2) the ability of self-structured bubbles to move past international fabrication defects (missing apertures) in the propagation conductors (defeat tolerance), and (3) moving bubbles at mobility limited speeds. Milled barriers in the epitaxial garnet are discussed for containment of the bubble lattice. Experimental work on input/output tracks, storage loops, gates, generators, and magneto-resistive detectors for a prototype device are discussed. Potential final device architectures are described with modeling of power consumption, data rates, and access times. Appendices compare the self-structured bubble memory from the device and system perspectives with other non-volatile memory technologies.

Nelson, G. L.

Models for application of radiation boundary condition for MHD waves in collapse calculations

The problem of reflection of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves at the boundary of a numerical grid has to be resolved in order to obtain reliable results for the end state of the (isothermal) collapse of a rotating, magnetic protostellar cloud. Since the goal of investigating magnetic braking in collapse simulations is to see if the transport of angular momentum via alfven waves is large enough to solve the angular momentum problem an approximation that artificially suppresses large amplitudes in the MHD waves can be self-defeating. For this reason, four alternate methods of handling reflected waves where no assumptions are made regarding the amplitudes of the waves were investigated. In order to study this problem (of reflection) without interference from other effects these methods were tried on two simpler cases. The four methods are discussed.

Vanajakshi, C. T.

Computer-Access-Code Matrices

Authorized users respond to changing challenges with changing passwords. Scheme for controlling access to computers defeats eavesdroppers and "hackers". Based on password system of challenge and password or sign, challenge, and countersign correlated with random alphanumeric codes in matrices of two or more dimensions. Codes stored on floppy disk or plug-in card and changed frequently. For even higher security, matrices of four or more dimensions used, just as cubes compounded into hypercubes in concurrent processing.

Collins, Earl R., Jr.

On protection of Freedom's solar dynamic radiator from the orbital debris environment. Part 1: Preliminary analyses and testing

A great deal of experimentation and analysis was performed to quantify penetration thresholds of components which will experience orbital debris impacts. Penetration was found to depend upon mission specific parameters such as orbital altitude, inclination, and orientation of the component; and upon component specific parameters such as material, density and the geometry particular to its shielding. Experimental results are highly dependent upon shield configuration and cannot be extrapolated with confidence to alternate shield configurations. Also, current experimental capabilities are limited to velocities which only approach the lower limit of predicted orbital debris velocities. Therefore, prediction of the penetrating particle size for a particular component having a complex geometry remains highly uncertain. An approach is described which was developed to assess on-orbit survivability of the solar dynamic radiator due to micrometeoroid and space debris impacts. Preliminary analyses are presented to quantify the solar dynamic radiator survivability, and include the type of particle and particle population expected to defeat the radiator bumpering (i.e., penetrate a fluid flow tube). Results of preliminary hypervelocity impact testing performed on radiator panel samples (in the 6 to 7 km/sec velocity range) are also presented. Plans for further analyses and testing are discussed. These efforts are expected to lead to a radiator design which will perform to requirements over the expected lifetime.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.