Individualized Degradation Modeling and Prognostics in a Heterogeneous Group via Incorporating Intrinsic Covariate Information
Not provided.
Automation & Control Systems↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates
Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Battery Degradation Modeling in Hybrid Power Plants: An Island System Unit Commitment Study: Preprint
As hybrid power plants (HPPs), such as photovoltaic (PV) and battery combinations, become increasingly important in power systems with high renewable energy penetration to address PV variability and ensure grid stability. This paper focuses on the urgent need to model the coordination between PV and battery systems in HPPs while accounting for battery degradation. We present a generation scheduling model that explicitly incorporates PV-battery hybridization in the unit commitment problem. Moreover, the cost function of the HPP scheduling problem endogenously considers battery degradation with adjustable weights to strike a balance between minimizing production costs and prolonging battery life, particularly when providing energy arbitrage and ancillary services. Using a realistic island system simulation, we demonstrate that accounting for battery degradation in the scheduling problem can significantly extend battery life with only minor additional production costs.
battery degradation↗
Arc Fault Risk Assessment and Degradation Model Development for Photovoltaic Connectors.
Abstract not provided.
Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh↗
Building Local Models for Flexible Degradation Modeling and Prognostics
Not provided.
Automation & Control Systems↗
Fuel/Basket Degradation Modeling Summary
This report documents the activities in a preliminary phase of development for three models: 1) waste package breach model, 2) fuel/basket degradation model, and 3) dual-purpose canister (DPC) crush model. The waste package breach model describes the coupling of mass flow, heat transport, and canister shell deformation in response to a heat-generating (criticality) event. The fuel/basket degradation model describes potential weakening and disaggregation of the DPC structure from corrosion, possibly accelerated by seismic ground motion. Progressively degraded three-dimensional (3D) configurations of the fuel, basket, and shell are generated for future analysis of reactivity (with as-loaded DPC fuel characteristics). Another important application for the fuel/basket degradation model is validation of the two stylized degradation cases currently being used by other investigators for analysis of the as-loaded DPC inventory under disposal conditions. The DPC crush model investigates stability of a typical DPC after breach of the disposal overpack allows fluids from the repository near-field environment to penetrate and externally pressurize the canister shell. Preliminary results show that large deformation of the DPC could occur for external pressure on the order of 10 to 15 MPa, or the shell could be stable (not collapse) with pressure of 20 MPa or greater if the basket plates are fully welded at the connections.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Rate-based degradation modeling of lithium-ion cells
Accelerated degradation testing is commonly used as the basis to characterize battery cell performance over a range of stress conditions (e.g., temperatures). Performance is measured by some response that is assumed to be related to the state of health of the cell (e.g., discharge resistance). Often, the ultimate goal of such testing is to predict cell life at some reference stress condition, where cell life is defined to be the point in time where performance has degraded to some critical level. These predictions are based on a degradation model that expresses the expected performance level versus the time and conditions under which a cell has been aged. Usually, the degradation model relates the accumulated degradation to the time at a constant stress level. The purpose of this article is to present an alternative framework for constructing a degradation model that focuses on the degradation rate rather than the accumulated degradation. One benefit of this alternative approach is that prediction of cell life is greatly facilitated in situations where the temperature exposure is not isothermal. This alternative modeling framework is illustrated via a family of rate-based models and experimental data acquired during calendar-life testing of high-power lithium-ion cells.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
PV Degradation Modeling: Applying Geospatial Workflows with "PVDeg"
Accurate degradation modeling is essential for predicting photovoltaic (PV) module performance, estimating longevity and informing design decisions. With degradation rates varying significantly by location, geospatial analysis is critical for PV and broader applications, such as agrivoltaics, weathering and environmental data analysis. This work presents PVDeg, an open-source tool designed for geospatial degradation analysis. PVDeg integrates meteorological data from global sources, including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), with degradation models. The toolkit enables users to customize geospatial workflows by integrating weather data, material parameters, and user-defined Python functions. It facilitates accelerated downloads of NSRDB and PVGIS datasets and optimizes geospatial point selection to preserve data density in regions of interest. Additionally, PVDeg provides a local database for storage and spatial queries, supporting large-scale analyses without the need for high-performance computing (HPC) resources. PVDeg provides a foundational workflow that extends its utility beyond PV applications, enabling researchers to analyze geospatial processes across discipline.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion
In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells
Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Microstructure-Based Degradation Modeling in Solid Oxide Cells
The presentation is intended for a graduate class in Georgia Southern University taught by Dr. Hayri Sezer on electrochemistry, SOFC and Li ion battery. It summaries NETL's recent works on microstructure-based modeling of degradation in solid oxide cells. It covers the degradation mechanism of Ni coarsening, Ni migration and the build-up of oxygen partial pressure inside the electrolyte. The phase-field models developed for Ni coarsening and migration are reviewed and the results are compared to experiments in literature to examine different diffusion mechanisms (Ni self-diffusion, Ni(OH)2 diffusion in pores and Ni(OH) surface diffusion) and driving forces (Ni(OH)x concentration and Ni-YSZ contact angle change). It also demonstrates the developed model for oxygen partial pressure and shows that the predicted oxygen partial pressure can explain the Ni oxidation in the hydrogen electrode and crack growth on the electrolyte-oxygen electrode interface under certain operating conditions.
nickel coarsening↗
Conservation of model degraded pine wood with selected organosilicons studied by XFM and nanoindentation
Previous research found that some organosilicon treatments proved effective in stabilizing waterlogged wood dimensions during drying. The present research aimed to determine the mechanism of wood stabilization by these chemicals to understand their mode of action. Here, the study used chemically (ChP) and biologically degraded (BP) model Scots pine wood treated with Methyltrimethoxysilane (MTMS), (3-Mercaptopropyl) trimethoxysilane (MPTMS), or 1,3-Bis(diethylamino)-3-propoxypropanol)-1,1,3,3-tetramethyldisiloxane (DEAPTMDS). Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) was used to investigate the penetration of organosilicons into the wood cellular structure and cell walls, and nanoindentation was used to study the mechanical properties of the treated wood cell walls. All treatments resulted in high volumetric anti-shrink efficiency (ASE V ) values of 74-82%, except for MTMS-treated ChP with an ASE V of 52%. The multiscale XFM results revealed that all applied organosilicons penetrated throughout the whole wooden blocks and deposited in both cell lumina and cell walls. The retention of all applied organosilicons was highest in BP wood, and so was the dimensional stabilization effect. MTMS-treated ChP had the lowest measured cell wall infiltration, which likely contributed to its lower ASE v . DEAPTMDS treatments plasticized the cell walls and resulted in lowered nanoindentation elastic modulus (E s NI ) and hardness (H) for all types of wood. MTMS and MPTMS had modest effects on cell wall mechanical properties, and the effect depended on the type of wood. The final effect of organosilicon treatment on the dimensional wood stabilization and mechanical properties of wood cell walls depended not only on the type of the applied organosilicon but also the type of wood degradation. This means that the treatment cannot be considered universal, and specific approaches are needed for the conservation of individual wooden objects. Although some mechanisms are now better understood, such as the need for organosilicons to infiltrate the cell walls and the plasticizing effect of DEAPTMDS, other aspects will benefit from a more detailed analysis of the molecular interactions between organosilicons and wood polymers.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
The Economic Impact of Battery Degradation Modelling Uncertainty
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are used for a variety of applications, with their economic benefit often being the decisive factor for deployment. A multitude of physico-chemical aging mechanisms lead to capacity fade over a BESS life cycle. The models that are used to describe this capacity fade are prone to inherent model errors. Through a holistic techno-economic modelling approach, we investigate the impact of battery degradation modelling uncertainty on the economic benefit of representative BESS applications. Here, it is shown how improved parameter fit quality can reduce the resulting economic uncertainty. Furthermore, we highlight that the consideration of degradation modelling uncertainty is especially crucial when: (i) the cash flow highly depends on the available battery capacity, (ii) a fixed, e.g. warranty mandated, state of health limit acts as the threshold for battery end-of-life, (iii) long evaluation periods and low discount rates are the focus of economic evaluation.
aging↗
A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems
Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.
Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗
Applicability of available Li-ion battery degradation models for system and control algorithm design
Within electrified vehicle powertrains, lithium-ion battery performance degrades with aging and usage, resulting in a loss in both energy and power capacity. As a result, models used for system design and control algorithm development would ideally capture the impact of those efforts on battery capacity degradation, be computationally efficient, and simple enough to be used for algorithm development. This paper provides an assessment of the state-of-the-art in lithium-ion battery degradation models, including accuracy, computational complexity, and amenability to control algorithm development. Various aging and degradation models have been studied in the literature, including physics-based electrochemical models, semi-empirical models, and empirical models. Some of these models have been validated with experimental data; however, comparisons of pre-existing degradation models across multiple experimental data sets have not been previously published. Three representative models, a 1-d electrochemical model (a combination of performance model and degradation model), a semi-empirical degradation model (the performance is predicted by an equivalent circuit model) and an empirical degradation model (the performance is predicted by an equivalent circuit model), are compared against four published experimental data sets for a 2.3-Ah commercial graphite/LiFePO 4 cell. Based on simulation results and comparisons to experimental data, the key differences in the aging factors captured by each of the models are summarized. Here the results show that the physics-based model is best able to capture results across all four representative data sets with an error less than 10%, but is 20x slower than the empirical model, and 134x slower than the semi-empirical model, making it unsuitable for powertrain system design and model-based algorithm development. Despite being computationally efficient, the semi-empirical and empirical models, when used under conditions that lie outside the calibration data set, exhibit up to 71% error in capacity loss prediction. Such models require expensive experimental data collection to recalibrate for every new application. Thus, in the author’s opinion, there exists a need for a physically-based model that generalizes well across operating conditions, is computationally efficient for model-based design, and simple enough for control algorithm development.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Modeling Degradation in Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells - Volume II
Idaho National Laboratory has an ongoing project to generate hydrogen from steam using solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs). To accomplish this, technical and degradation issues associated with the SOECs will need to be addressed. This report covers various approaches being pursued to model degradation issues in SOECs. An electrochemical model for degradation of SOECs is presented. The model is based on concepts in local thermodynamic equilibrium in systems otherwise in global thermodynamic non-equilibrium. It is shown that electronic conduction through the electrolyte, however small, must be taken into account for determining local oxygen chemical potential,, within the electrolyte. The within the electrolyte may lie out of bounds in relation to values at the electrodes in the electrolyzer mode. Under certain conditions, high pressures can develop in the electrolyte just near the oxygen electrode/electrolyte interface, leading to oxygen electrode delamination. These predictions are in accordance with the reported literature on the subject. Development of high pressures may be avoided by introducing some electronic conduction in the electrolyte. By combining equilibrium thermodynamics, non-equilibrium (diffusion) modeling, and first-principles, atomic scale calculations were performed to understand the degradation mechanisms and provide practical recommendations on how to inhibit and/or completely mitigate them.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Degradation Modeling and Reliability Assessment of Capacitors
The degradation of capacitors under accelerated stress conditions occur in a monotonic and non-linear fashion. Several efforts have been made to model the degradation behavior of capacitor considering either physics-of-failure models or statistical models and subsequently estimate its reliability and lifetime parameters. But most of these models fail to reflect the physical properties of the degradation path, which varies according to several intrinsic and extrinsic factors. These factors introduce random and temporal uncertainty among the population of capacitors. The gamma stochastic process can model both type of uncertainties among the population of capacitors. In this paper, we model the capacitor degradation by non-homogeneous gamma stochastic process in which both the model parameters (shape and scale) are dependent on stress variables. The model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation approach.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Metallic fuel cladding degradation model development and evaluation for BISON
Fuel cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) and coolant cladding chemical interaction (CCCI), both consume stainless-steel cladding in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and effectively degrade cladding mechanical performance through thickness reduction. Therefore, FCCI/CCCI and corresponding cladding degradation models are essential for advanced fuel performance codes, such as BISON, to reliably predict cladding behavior in SFRs. Here, we report the development and implementation efforts for BISON's FCCI/CCCI correlations and cladding degradation models based on U.S. legacy metallic fuel data. The models were evaluated using Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program X447/A experiment data supported by the ongoing integration project enabling coordinated application of BISON and EBR-II fuel irradiation and physics database (FIPD). Furthermore, the implemented models were demonstrated to improve BISON's capabilities of predicting cladding damage and degradation behavior that is more consistent with post-irradiation examination observations. Additionally, some limitations of current BISON modules are identified, which are to be overcome through the BISON-FIPD integration efforts.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗