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Results for “degradation pathway models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical analysis and degradation pathway modeling of photovoltaic minimodules with varied packaging strategies

Degradation pathway models constructed using network structural equation modeling (netSEM) are used to study degradation modes and pathways active in photovoltaic (PV) system variants in exposure conditions of high humidity and temperature. This data-driven modeling technique enables the exploration of simultaneous pairwise and multiple regression relationships between variables in which several degradation modes are active in specific variants and exposure conditions. Durable and degrading variants are identified from the netSEM degradation mechanisms and pathways, along with potential ways to mitigate these pathways. A combination of domain knowledge and netSEM modeling shows that corrosion is the primary cause of the power loss in these glass/backsheet PV minimodules. We show successful implementation of netSEM to elucidate the relationships between variables in PV systems and predict a specific service lifetime. The results from pairwise relationships and multiple regression show consistency. This work presents a greater opportunity to be expanded to other materials systems.

electrical measurements↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of PV Module Packaging Strategies of Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Using Degradation Pathway Network Modeling

As the PV industry is rapidly expanding, it is important to thoroughly investigate the long-term impact of packaging strategies on the performance of PV modules. In this study, the variants in sets differ on the basis of manufacturer (A/B), encapsulant (EVA/POE), rear encapsulant (UV-cutoff/opaque/transparent), module architecture (GB/DG) and cell type (monofacial/bifacial). The minimodules were exposed for 2520 hours in modified damp heat, with or without full spectrum light. Every 504 hours, stepwise electrical characterization techniques were employed to track changes in minimodules. Degradation pathway modeling using network structural equation modeling was employed to study pairwise relationships between variables and service lifetime prediction in minimodules. Through this study, differences in quality control are identified in minimodules made by different manufacturers. Minimodules with UV-cutoff rear encapsulant show relatively better stability, whereas the ones with opaque rear encapsulant show greater power loss. In addition, GB having UV-cutoff rear encapsulation and GB with POE having opaque rear encapsulation were identified to be stable as they lack a best model fit. Here, the primary power loss mechanism in degrading variants is interconnect corrosion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lifetime and Degradation Study of Poly(Methyl Methacrylate) via a Data-Driven Study Protocol Approach

We report to optimize and extend the service life of polymeric materials in outdoor environments, a domain knowledge-based and data-driven approach was utilized to quantitatively investigate the temporal evolution of degradation modes, mechanisms, and rates under various stepwise accelerated exposure conditions. Six formulations of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) with different combinations of stabilizing additives, including one unstabilized formulation, were exposed in three accelerated weathering conditions. Degradation was dependent on wavelength as samples in UV light at 340 nm (UVA) exposure showed the most yellowing. The unstabilized PMMA formulation showed much higher yellowness index values (59.5) than stabilized PMMA formulations (2–12). Urbach edge analysis shows a shift toward longer wavelength from 285 to 500 nm with increasing exposure time and an increased absorbance around 400 nm of visible region as the unstabilized samples increase in yellowing. The degradation mechanisms of PMMA were tracked using induced absorbance to dose at specific wavelengths that correspond to known degradation mechanisms. The degradation pathway of PMMA was modeled in a framework using network structural equation modeling (netSEM). netSEM showed changes in degradation pathway as PMMA transition stages of degradation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1999

Pharmacological Inhibitors of the Proteosome in Atrophying Muscles

It is now clear that the marked loss of muscle mass that occurs with disuse, denervation or in many systemic diseases (cancer cachexia, sepsis, acidosis, various endocrine disorders) is due primarily to accelerated degradation of muscle proteins, especially myofibrillar components. Recent work primarily in Dr. Goldberg's laboratory had suggested that in these diverse conditions, the enhancement of muscle proteolysis results mainly from activation of the Ub-proteasome degradative pathway. In various experimental models of atrophy, rat muscles show a common series of changes indicative of activation of this pathway, including increases in MRNA for Ub and proteasome subunits, content of ubiquitinated proteins, and sensitivity to inhibitors of the proteasome. In order to understand the muscle atrophy seen in weightlessness, Dr. Goldberg's laboratory is collaborating with Dr. Baldwin in studies to define the changes in these parameters upon hind-limb suspension. Related experiments will explore the effects on this degradative system of exercise regimens and also of glucocorticoids, which are known to rise in space personnel and to promote muscle, especially in inactive muscles. The main goals will be: (A) to define the enzymatic changes leading to enhanced activity of the Ub-proteasome pathway in inactive muscles upon hind-limb suspension, and the effects on this system of exposure to glucocorticoids or exercise; and (B) to learn whether inhibitors of the Ub-proteasome pathway may be useful in retarding the excessive proteolysis in atrophying muscles. Using muscle extracts, Dr. Goldberg's group hopes to define the rate-limiting, enzymatic changes that lead to the accelerated Ub-conjugation and protein degradation. They have recently developed cell-free preparations from atrophying rat muscles, in which Ub-conjugation to muscle proteins is increased above control levels. Because these new preparations seem to reproduce the changes occurring in vivo, they will analyze in depth extracts from normal and atrophying muscles to compare the activities of the Ub-activating enzyme (El), the various LTh-carrier proteins (E2s), and Ub-protein ligases (E3s). Recent studies of other types of muscle wasting -suggest a very important role in muscle proteolysis of certain ubiquitination enzymes, E214k and E3-alpha(i.e. components of the "N-end pathway"). Future studies will focus in understanding their role and test whether they are in fact critical for muscle atrophy in vivo. Since weightlessness leads to a specific loss of contractile proteins and to a switching of myosin isotypes, Dr. Goldberg's group will attempt to identify the ubiquitination enzymes specifically involved in myosin degradation both in normal muscle and after hind-limb suspension.

Goldberg, Alfred↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software is developed to simulate performance and performance degradation of Li-ion batteries consisting of layered and olivine cathodes with graphite anode when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown at the anode, cathode dissolution and its synergistic effect on SEI formation at the anode. The model is validated by simulating commercial cylindrical cell performance. A global model is developed to simulate performance across all chemistries, along with individual chemistry models using global model parameters as initial values. There is good agreement between these models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed which fits data well and provides more clarity on differences in cathode dissolution exchange current density. Again, good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. The lessons learned from the physics-based model is used to develop a top down statistics-based model using current, voltage and anode volumetric change per mole lithium intercalated, along with their interactions as degradation predictors. This model predicts out of sample degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycle with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from physics-based computationally intensive algorithms.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Similarity Metric for Data Optimization and Efficient Training of Reactive Machine Learning Force Fields for Hydrocarbon Radiolysis

Radiolysis is a common approach to sterilize polymers, chemically modify them for upcycling, and accelerate their decomposition for recycling purposes. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a powerful tool to generate atomic-level trajectories of the reactive processes and quantify radiolytic chemical degradation pathways. For this, machine learning (ML) surrogate models for reactive force fields with quantum mechanical accuracy are now widely used, which require ML training data sets that can provide information on atomic environments for target chemical systems. However, radiolysis chemistry can be highly complex and diverse, which poses significant challenges for generating training data to parametrize ML models. In this regard, we developed a method for optimizing the training data set using a cosine similarity metric to help guide training set selection for radiolysis of polyethylene, a model hydrocarbon polymer, as well as to enhance the transferability of our reactive ML force field (MLFF) to a variety of molecular and polymeric systems. Our approach performs atom-by-atom comparisons between local atomic environments to pinpoint important data points associated with rare and localized events, such as radiolysis damage within structures. We apply this approach to train the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) MLFF model, which expresses the atomic interaction potentials in terms of linear combinations of many-body Chebyshev polynomials. We first show that our method can reduce our training set size by ∼70% while improving overall accuracy compared to more standard MD model fitting approaches. We then validate our optimum model against diverse hydrocarbon simulation data, including simple alkanes and systems with unsaturated carbon bonds, over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. Finally, we use our ChIMES model to perform MD simulations of radiolytic damage with large-scale systems that help avoid system size effects. Overall, our approach yields an MD force field that retains most of the accuracy of the underlying quantum method while yielding many orders of improvement in computational efficiency. In conclusion, our efforts will have impact on future hydrocarbon polymer radiolysis studies, where the chemical details of the polymer–radiation interactions can have a strong effect on the resulting products observed in experiments.

Hydrocarbons↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bisphenol A degradation by manganese oxides at circumneutral pH: Quantitative evaluation of dissolved Mn(III) species with pyrophosphate

Although trivalent manganese (Mn(III)) species have been recognized as crucial intermediates in the degradation of organic contaminants by Mn oxides, quantitative research on their specific roles remains scarce. Here, our study investigated the degradation processes of an organic pollutant, Bisphenol A (BPA), by dissolved Mn(III) and Mn(III)-bearing oxides, and elucidated the differences of the underlying mechanisms and reaction pathways between several Mn oxides and dissolved Mn(III). Our results indicated that BPA degradation rates with Mn(III)-bearing oxides alone follow the order: δ-MnO 2 >> γ-MnOOH > Mn 3 O 4 . Adding pyrophosphate (PP) significantly enhanced BPA degradation by promoting the formation of Mn(III)-PP complexes and exposing more reactive sites, achieved through destabilizing the crystal structure and mitigating of Mn(II) readsorption, particularly in γ-MnOOH and Mn 3 O 4 . Our kinetic model revealed that heterogeneous degradation by Mn oxides is the predominant reaction pathway, accounting for 61.4 %, 87.8 %, and 73.8 % of the total degraded BPA for δ-MnO 2 , γ-MnOOH, and Mn 3 O 4 , respectively, even in the presence of significant amount of dissolved Mn(III) intermediates due to high PP concentrations. These results offer mechanistic details on BPA degradation by Mn oxides and the influence of ligand concentration, providing helpful insights for optimizing degradation strategies of organic pollutants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atomic-Scale Structural Mapping of Active Sites in Monolayer PGM-Free Catalysts by Low-Voltage 4D-STEM

Two-dimensional (2D) materials have attracted a large amount of attention in both basic and applied fields, and scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is often uniquely well-suited for characterizing the atomic-scale structure of these materials [1-4]. As a result, STEM is poised to significantly impact progress on platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts, which are currently under intense development to enable low-cost, commercially viable hydrogen fuel cells [5]. While recent advancements have resulted in fuel cell performance comparable to Pt catalysts by some measures [6], cell durability remains a significant challenge, limiting practical applications [7]. Catalytically active sites in PGM-free materials are proposed to be FeN4 complexes embedded in a graphene lattice (Fig. 1b) within layered or other larger materials, but this is still under debate largely due to the range of potential actives sites predicted by computational methods and lack of methods for directly validating these models [5]. Fundamental insights into the atomic structure and resulting degradation pathways of proposed active sites are therefore needed to fully understand and control cell performance and durability [6].2D materials typically make ideal samples for STEM, but those within PGM-free catalysts present additional challenges since these materials are often defect-rich, with a high density of edges, dopant atoms, etc., which significantly increase susceptibility to beam damage at standard operating voltages. This makes analysis of potential FeN4 active sites particularly challenging, since a large proportion of Fe exists at edge sites where beam-induced atomic displacements can prohibit high-resolution structural characterization [6]. Conventional dark-field imaging compounds this problem by producing less signal for a given dose and being less sensitive to light elements than dose-efficient phase contrast imaging techniques such as those enabled by four-dimensional (4D)-STEM [8-10] (Fig. 1a). Consequently, active site structural analysis is often left to methods such as low-resolution imaging combined with quantum chemical calculations [6], which hinders accurate determination of reaction and degradation mechanisms.Here, we demonstrate direct atomic-scale structural mapping of FeN4 sites by performing low-voltage 4D-STEM on a model PGM-free catalyst system with many exposed monolayer regions. To accomplish this, we pair a 30 keV aberration-corrected probe with a fast pixelated detector that has optimal performance at low beam voltages [11]. This enables us to simultaneously image light and heavy elements with high signal-to-noise by center-of-mass analysis (Fig. 1c) while minimizing beam-induced atomic displacements at sensitive sites. The monolayer nature of these materials additionally allows for experimental validation by direct comparison with multislice simulations [12] of model structures (Fig. 1d-e). This work demonstrates how low-voltage 4D-STEM will provide new insights into the atomic-scale structure and degradation mechanisms of active sites in PGM-free catalysts, facilitating the development of low-cost hydrogen fuel cells and other energy conversion technologies in the future [13].

Zachman, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling as Catalysts for Next-Generation Breakthroughs

The Presidential Symposium (PRES) at the 2025 Fall Meeting, hosted by the President’s Office and Energy and Fuels Division, American Chemical Society (ACS) in Washington, DC, brought together a diverse group of chemists, engineers, and materials scientists working in battery materials & systems, automation and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The accelerating demand for high-performance, scalable, and sustainable energy storage has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how materials are dis-covered, devices are engineered, and systems are optimized. This Presidential Symposium, entitled “Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling Driving Next-Gen Breakthroughs”, brings together global leaders to unveil transformative strategies anchored in the AAA framework: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Advanced Modeling. Artificial Intelligence is redefining the frontiers of energy storage by enabling predictive design, real-time optimization, and intelligent control across diverse chemistries and architectures. Automation is streamlining the synthesis, characterization, and testing of battery materials, dramatically accelerating innovation cycles and unlocking scalable solutions for grid and mobility applications. Advanced Modeling, spanning atomic to system-level scales, provides unprecedented insight into electrochemical dynamics, degradation pathways, and thermal behavior, particularly when coupled with physics-informed machine learning and digital twin technologies. Digital twins, in turn, leverage the AAA framework by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and AI predictions into dynamic virtual replicas, enabling proactive diagnostics, optimization, and system resilience. Together, these synergistic pillars are not only re-shaping the scientific landscape but also forging a new era of reproducible, data-driven, and resilient energy storage innovation. In conclusion, this symposium marks a pivotal moment in the convergence of computational intelligence and experimental rigor, charting the course for next-generation breakthroughs in lithium-ion, solid-state, and flow battery technologies.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems Engineering of Rhodococcus opacus to Enable Production of Drop-in Fuels from Lignocellulose

Production of drop-in fuels from lignocellulose using Rhodococcus opacus PD630 (hereafter R. opacus) is a challenging goal. During the grant period we have pushed the field forward significantly in several areas of research. Towards the end goal of accelerating the adoption of R. opacus in biofuel production, during the grant period we have expanded the phenotypic characterization of R. opacus grown in single aromatic (model lignocellulosic) compounds or their mixtures, modeling the growth conditions in lignocellulosic biomass. Harnessing the power of adaptive evolution, we produced evolved R. opacus isolates with superior lignin valorization capabilities and identified differentially expressed genes and pathways after adaptation. We used next generation multi-omic techniques such as genomic, transcriptomic, and metabolomic analyses, to identify the catabolic pathways used by R. opacus to degrade aromatic compounds and funnel these degradation products into central metabolism, as well as the aromatic transport genes required for increased tolerance and utilization. Taking this information one step further, we identified endogenous transcription factors and regulatory mechanisms important for degradation of five model aromatic compounds. To accurately estimate R. opacus growth and consumption on model lignin compounds we pioneered the use of novel extraction procedures prior to GC-MS analysis. Alongside 13 C-metabolic flux analysis, we have elucidated the metabolic routes preferred by Rhodococcus opacus during aromatic compound degradation. Finally, we used in tandem lipidomics and high-resolution mass spectrometry to identify the modulation of mycolic acids and phospholipid membrane composition modification as a strategy for aromatic tolerance in R. opacus. Being a non-model organism, R. opacus lacks the breadth of tools and technical foundation which drive biofuel research in more well-understood microbes such as Escherichia coli. To reduce this burden for use, we designed and produced new tools for genomic manipulation and engineering in R. opacus. These engineering breakthroughs support efficient genomic editing, enabling gene overexpression, repression, and genetic alteration. Using these tools, we have generated synthetically engineered strains with increased lipogenesis and growth, both positive traits required for increased lignin valorization. Optimizing engineered strains for biofuel production from lignocellulose requires extremely sophisticated synthetic rewiring of metabolism. To facilitate systems-level reorganization of metabolism in R. opacus, we created a genome-scale model that accurately predicts metabolic flux and growth rates on the aromatic compound phenol. Lignin requires extensive pre-treatment before biological degradation by R. opacus. Towards an eventual goal of degrading real-world lignin, we developed new depolymerization processes to generate lignin breakdown products (LBP). We optimized LBP storage and composition analysis techniques, enabling accurate prediction of specific LBP compound integration into cell wall components. Overall, through the work funded by this grant we generated 20 manuscripts (17 published, 3 in review/preparation), methods for increased accuracy in metabolomics of aromatic compounds, multiple genetic tools for altering the R. opacus genome, genome scale models for predicting flux through metabolic pathways, as well as multi-omic data for community use. The work funded by this grant has increased the knowledge of aromatic degradation in bacteria and advanced our efforts to optimize R. opacus for lignin valorization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Fracture Strength of Fused Silica From Photonic Signatures Around Collision Sites

Impact sites in glass affect its fracture strength. An analytical model that predicts fracture strength from grey-field polariscope (GFP) readings (photoelastic retardations) has been developed and reported in the literature. The model is suggestive that stress fields, resulting from impact damage, destablizes sites within the glass, which lead to pathways that cause strength degradation. Using data collected from fused silica specimens fabricated from outer window panes that were designed for the space shuttle, the model was tested against four categories of inflicted damage. The damage sites were cored from the window carcasses, examined with the GFP and broken using the ASTM Standard C1499-09 to measure the fracture strength. A correlation is made between the fracture strength and the photoelastic retardation measured at the damage site in each specimen. A least-squares fit is calculated. The results are compared with the predictions from the model. A plausible single-sided NDE damage site inspection method (a version of which is planned for glass inspection in the Orion Project) that relates photoelastic retardation in glass components to its fracture strength is presented.

Yost, William T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Polymorphism of garnet solid electrolytes and its implications for grain-level chemo-mechanics

Understanding and mitigating filament formation, short-circuit and solid electrolyte fracture is necessary for advanced all-solid-state batteries. Here, we employ a coupled far-field high-energy diffraction microscopy and tomography approach for assessing the chemo-mechanical behaviour for dense, polycrystalline garnet (Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 ) solid electrolytes with grain-level resolution. In situ monitoring of grain-level stress responses reveals that the failure mechanism is stochastic and affected by local microstructural heterogeneity. In this work, coupling high-energy X-ray diffraction and far-field high-energy diffraction microscopy measurements reveals the presence of phase heterogeneity that can alter local chemo-mechanics within the bulk solid electrolyte. These local regions are proposed to be regions with the presence of a cubic polymorph of LLZO, potentially arising from local dopant concentration variation. The coupled tomography and FF-HEDM experiments are combined with transport and mechanics modelling to illustrate the degradation of polycrystalline garnet solid electrolytes. The results showcase the pathways for processing high-performing solid-state batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Membrane Degradation in PEM Fuel Cells: Part I. Modeling Gas Crossover and the Pt Band

Understanding chemical degradation of the proton-exchange membrane in fuel cells is crucial for extending their lifetimes. Herein, various degradation reactions reported in literature are organized and analyzed, including direct radical generation and an indirect (Fenton) pathway. To understand the transport of dissolved H 2 and O 2 crossover gases as they relate to membrane degradation, an agglomerate-scale model is introduced, treating gas, ionomer, and catalyst as discrete phases. The model reveals a key phenomenon: at working potentials, dissolved gases are mostly consumed at the interface between the catalyst layer and the membrane, leaving little gas to cross the membrane. Under open-circuit conditions, dissolved gases are not consumed and can then cross the membrane. This explains high H 2 O 2 concentrations and degradation rates seen in experiments but not captured in previous models. Following mixed-potential theory, crossover gases supply the hydrogen-oxidation and oxygen-reduction reactions, which occur simultaneously on individual Pt particles comprising the Pt band in the membrane, forming reactive species (H 2 O 2 , OH·). Results show crossover gas almost entirely reacts on the Pt band, allowing little to reach the opposite electrode. Furthermore, the micro-scale geometry of the catalyst-layer/membrane interface impacts the gas crossover at working potentials, indicating that cell construction affects membrane durability.

Johnson, Evan F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of degradation products in thermally treated TATB

Delineating the chemical composition of TATB (1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene) residues produced from the exposure to abnormal thermal environments should lead to a better understanding of the decomposition paths. Identifying and quantifying each compound in thermally produced residues, monitors which compounds are degrading or forming along the decomposition route, as well as providing input for the kinetic models of those pathways. Here, in this paper, we report the methodology of isolating, identifying, and where possible, quantifying soluble compounds present in solid residues of thermally treated TATB (330 °C for tens of minutes). Samples were extracted with DMSO, separated using chromatography, and quantified using their absorption at 354 nm. Identification of unknown compounds was accomplished using high resolution mass spectrometry. TATB, F1 (diamino-dinitro-benzofurazan), HO-TATB (2,4,6-triamino-1-hydroxyl-3,5-dinitrobenzene), and T4A (1-chloro-3,5-dinitro-2,4,6-triaminobenzene) were trace compounds detected in the unreacted TATB. Ten more compounds that formed in the residues were structurally identified including F2 (amino-nitro-difurazan). Several more compounds were observed but not completely identified. We propose possible structures for the unknowns. Of the compounds formed, F1 was the most abundant compound reaching 4.5 % by weight of the degraded solid sample. Other degradation compounds were estimated to sum to trace levels, well below 1 %. Most compounds were new, having not been detected and identified in previous studies of production grade and thermally aged TATB. Many compounds only reached detectable concentrations after several min of thermal exposure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗