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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Improving Solar PV Degradation Prediction Certainty: PREDICTS2 (Final Technical Report)

The rate and type of in-service PV performance degradation vary for different module designs, vintages, and operating climates. The current IEC 61215 module qualification testing standard can be used to identify design and manufacturing flaws that may lead to early life failures, but it was not intended to accurately predict degradation rates in the first 5 to 10 years of a PV plant’s lifetime, nor long-term performance, under varied operating conditions. Correlations between accelerated aging data and real-world degradation data are needed to better predict wear-out degradation in response to environmental stressors, such as elevated temperature, temperature cycling, moisture, wind load, and solar radiation. The PREDICTS2 project aged 36 pristine-condition ‘spare’ modules from a commercial PV power plant in the U.S. Southwest using the IEC 61215 and Qualification Plus (Qual Plus) testing standards. The study is unique in its ability to compare performance degradation data for fielded modules operating outdoors for 6 years in a commercial plant environmental with degradation data for modules of the same make, model and vintage that have been aged artificially in an indoor laboratory. Changes in individual module current-voltage (I-V) curve data were measured before and after the artificial aging process and compared to I-V curve data for the fielded modules. This project advanced the industry’s understanding of how environmental stressors affect performance degradation and established relationships between degradation mechanisms and changes to module electrical parameters and power loss. Improved certainty in degradation rates is expected to be the greatest source of LCOE reduction resulting from this project. Reducing the spread in the degradation rate probability distribution lowers project risk, which translates to lower project financing costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Implementation of a Bag Degradation Predictive Tool at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Nuclear material packaging involves many complex variables derived from the stored material's properties, the storage environment, and the synergistic interaction of said material and its environment on the containment boundary. In the Plutonium Facility (PF-4) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) the typical containment boundary found, starting from the stored material itself to the outermost containment layer, consists of the material contained within a stainless steel (typically 304) slip-lid (or other equivalent stainless steel packaging layer) wrapped in an sPVC bag-out bag contained within a facility approved outer container stored within the boundaries of an approved facility (i.e., a building designed and approved to store nuclear material). This packaging configuration, though occasionally deviated from in the past, represents the current procedurally enforced, expected containment structure for all interim nuclear material containment outside of an engineered control barrier (e.g., a glovebox). Over the life of containerization research at LANL, packaging engineers have become increasingly concerned with the degradation of the sPVC bag-out bag, which can cause corrosion to the outermost packaging layer as well as possible exposure to alpha contamination if the bag-out bag layer is degraded to the point of containment failure. A bag-out bag degradation predictive tool (BDT) is therefore needed to assess the current and future nuclear material inventory for possible bag degradation in order to continue to ensure safe operations for the facility and its workers to deliver on the vital national security mission of 30 PPY.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50 Year Life Module

The goal of this work is to create an online tool that can be used to search for degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published open-source allowing users to expand on the existing framework.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2025

A genome-scale metabolic model for the denitrifying bacterium Thauera sp. MZ1T accurately predicts degradation of pollutants and production of polymers

The denitrifying bacterium Thauera sp . MZ1T, a common member of microbial communities in wastewater treatment facilities, can produce different compounds from a range of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) sources under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. In these different conditions, Thauera modifies its metabolism to produce different compounds that influence the microbial community. In particular, Thauera sp . MZ1T produces different exopolysaccharides with floc-forming properties, impacting the physical disposition of wastewater consortia and the efficiency of nutrient assimilation by the microbial community. Under N-limiting conditions, Thauera sp . MZ1T decreases its growth rate and accelerates the accumulation of polyhydroxyalkanoate-related (PHA) compounds including polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), which plays a fundamental role as C and energy storage in this β-proteobacterium. However, the metabolic mechanisms employed by Thauera sp . MZ1T to assimilate and catabolize many of the different C and N sources under aerobic and anaerobic conditions remain unknown. Systems biology approaches such as genome-scale metabolic modeling have been successfully used to unveil complex metabolic mechanisms for various microorganisms. Here, we developed a comprehensive metabolic model (M-model) for Thauera sp . MZ1T ( i Thauera861), consisting of 1,744 metabolites, 2,384 reactions, and 861 genes. We validated the model experimentally using over 70 different C and N sources under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions. i Thauera861 achieved a prediction accuracy of 95% for growth on various C and N sources and close to 85% for assimilation of aromatic compounds under denitrifying conditions. The M-model was subsequently deployed to determine the effects of substrates, oxygen presence, and the C:N ratio on the production of PHB and exopolysaccharides (EPS), showing the highest polymer yields are achieved with nucleotides and amino acids under aerobic conditions. This comprehensive M-model will help reveal the metabolic processes by which this ubiquitous species influences communities in wastewater treatment systems and natural environments.

Tec-Campos, Diego (ORCID:0000000188194150)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planning for Validation of Optical Property Degradation Predictions Using On-Orbit Telemetry

NASA’s Gateway Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) will employ high power Xenon Hall thrusters to transit from Earth orbit to a lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO). Due to the extended duration of this transit phase and a high thruster duty cycle, there is expected to be significant material erosion caused by the ion plume and subsequent redeposition onto the main spacecraft radiators. While plume modeling and tests of redeposition have attempted to quantify the resulting impact to radiator optical properties, significant uncertainties remain. The flight of PPE presents an opportunity to validate some of the assumptions in this analytical chain, but there will be no specialized hardware that can directly characterize the property changes. However, the planned mission includes periods with significant solar flux to the radiators both early and late in the transit inducing differential heat loads on the vehicle. This presentation will explore options for analyzing possible impacts of various levels of redeposition and whether the severity can be accurately characterized via existing planned telemetry during a nominal mission.

PPE↗
DOE OSTI2014

E-Area Vault Concrete Material Property And Vault Durability/Degradation Projection Recommendations

Subsequent to the 2008 E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Performance Assessment (PA) (WSRC 2008), two additional E-Area vault concrete property testing programs have been conducted (Dixon and Phifer 2010 and SIMCO 2011a) and two additional E-Area vault concrete durability modeling projections have been made (Langton 2009 and SIMCO 2012). All the information/data from these reports has been evaluated and consolidated herein by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) at the request of Solid Waste Management (SWM) to produce E-Area vault concrete hydraulic and physical property data and vault durability/degradation projection recommendations that are adequately justified for use within associated Special Analyses (SAs) and future PA updates. The Low Activity Waste (LAW) and Intermediate Level (IL) Vaults structural degradation predictions produced by Carey 2006 and Peregoy 2006, respectively, which were used as the basis for the 2008 ELLWF PA, remain valid based upon the results of the E-Area vault concrete durability simulations reported by Langton 2009 and those reported by SIMCO 2012. Therefore revised structural degradation predictions are not required so long as the mean thickness of the closure cap overlying the vaults is no greater than that assumed within Carey 2006 and Peregoy 2006. For the LAW Vault structural degradation prediction (Carey 2006), the mean thickness of the overlying closure cap was taken as nine feet. For the IL Vault structural degradation prediction (Peregoy 2006), the mean thickness of the overlying closure cap was taken as eight feet. The mean closure cap thicknesses as described here for both E-Area Vaults will be included as a key input and assumption (I&A) in the next revision to the closure plan for the ELLWF (Phifer et al. 2009). In addition, it has been identified as new input to the PA model to be assessed in the ongoing update to the new PA Information UDQE (Flach 2013). Once the UDQE is approved, the SWM Key I&A database will be updated with this new information.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1997

Prediction of Degraded Strength in Composite Laminates with Matrix Cracks

Composite laminated materials are becoming increasingly important for aerospace engineering. As the aerospace industry moves in this direction, it will be critical to be able to predict how these materials fail. While much research has been done in this area, both theoretical and experimental, the field is still new enough that most computer aided design platforms have not yet incorporated damage prediction for laminate materials. There is a gap between the level of understanding evident in the literature and what design tools are readily available to engineers. The work reported herein is a small step toward filling that gap for NASA engineers. A computer program, LAMDGRAD, has been written which predicts how some of the materials properties change as damage is incurred. Specifically, the program calculates the Young's moduli E(sub x) and E(sub y) the Poisson's ratio v(sub xy) and the shear modulus G(sub xy) as cracks developing the composite matrix. The changes in the Young's moduli are reported both as a function of mean crack separation and in the form of a stress-versus-strain curve. The program also calculates the critical strain for delamination growth and predicts the strain at which a quarter-inch diameter delaminated area will buckle. The stress-versus-strain predictions have been compared to experiment for two test structures, and good agreement has been found in each case.

Kime, Yolanda J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A model to predict the degradation of a SiGe thermopile.

Discussion of the various phenomena which affect the available output power of a typical radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG), including estimates of the magnitude of these effects. Power degradation, as well as the corresponding changes in operating temperature, are calculated by means of a computer code which systematically accounts for the time- and temperature-dependent variables. A model for predicting available output power of an RTG is developed which includes changes in performance due to fuel decay, alteration of bulk thermoelectric properties, changes in electrode contacts, geometry changes due to material sublimation, and degradation of the thermal insulation.

Stapfer, G.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Polymer Degradation and Mechanical Property Changes for Combined Radiation-Thermal Aging Environments

Here, a new approach is presented for conducting and extrapolating combined environment (radiation plus thermal) accelerated aging experiments. The method involves a novel way of applying the time-temperature-dose rate (t-T-R) approach derived many years ago, which assumes that by simultaneously accelerating the thermal-initiation rate (from Arrhenius T-only analysis) and the radiation dose rate R by the same factor x, the overall degradation rate will increase by the factor x. The dose rate assumption implies that equal dose yields equal damage, which is equivalent to assuming the absence of dose-rate effects (DRE). A plot of inverse absolute temperature versus the log of the dose rate is used to indicate experimental conditions consistent with the model assumptions, which can be derived along lines encompassing so-called matched accelerated conditions (MAC lines). Aging trends taken along MAC lines for several elastomers confirms the underlying model assumption and therefore indicates, contrary to many past published results, that DRE are typically not present. In addition, the MAC approach easily accommodates the observation that substantial degradation chemistry changes occur as aging conditions transition R-T space from radiation domination (high R, low T) to temperature domination (low R, high T). The MAC-line approach also suggests an avenue for gaining more confidence in extrapolations of accelerated MAC-line data to ambient aging conditions by using ultrasensitive oxygen consumption (UOC) measurements taken along the MAC line both under the accelerated conditions and at ambient. From UOC data generated under combined R-T conditions, this approach is tested and quantitatively confirmed for one of the materials. In analogy to the wear-out approach developed previously for thermo-oxidative aging, the MAC-line concept can also be used to predict the remaining lifetimes of samples extracted periodically from ambient environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of Multiscale Materials Modeling Techniques and Coarse- Graining Strategies for Predicting Materials Degradation in Extreme Irradiation Environments

Exposure of metallic structural materials to irradiation environments results in significant microstructural evolution, property changes and performance degradation, which limits the extended operation of current generation light water reactors and restricts the design of advanced fission and fusion reactors [1-8]. This effect of irradiation on materials microstructure and properties is a classic example of an inherently multiscale phenomenon, as schematically illustrated in Figure 1a. Pertinent processes range from the atomic nucleus to structural component length scales, spanning more than 15 orders of magnitude. Time scales bridge more than 22 orders of magnitude, with the shortest being less than a femtosecond [1,8]. Further, the mix of radiation-induced features formed and the corresponding property degradation depend on a wide range of material and irradiation variables. This emphasizes the importance of closely integrating models with high-resolution experimental characterization of the evolving radiation- damaged microstructure, including measurements performed in-situ during irradiation. In this article, we review some recent successes through the use of closely coordinated modeling and experimental studies of the defect cluster evolution in irradiated body-centered cubic materials, followed by a discussion of outstanding challenges still to be addressed, which are necessary for the development of comprehensive models of radiation effects in structural materials.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Feasibility of predicting performance degradation of airfoils in heavy rain

The heavy rain aerodynamic performance penalty program is detailed. This effort supported the design of a fullscale test program as well as examined the feasibility of estimating the degradation of performance of airfoils from first principles. The analytic efforts were supplemented by a droplet splashback test program in an attempt to observe the physics of impact and generation of ejecta. These tests demonstrated that the interaction of rain with an airfoil is a highly complex phenomenon and this interaction is not likely to be analyzed analytically with existing tools.

Bilanin, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Use of Cumulative Degradation Factor Prediction and Life Test Result of the Thruster Gimbal Assembly Actuator for the Dawn Flight Project

The Dawn Ion Propulsion System is the ninth project in NASA s Discovery Program. The Dawn spacecraft is being developed to enable the scientific investigation of the two heaviest main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. Dawn is the first mission to orbit two extraterrestrial bodies, and the first to orbit a main-belt asteroid. The mission is enabled by the onboard Ion Propulsion System (IPS) to provide the post-launch delta-V. The three Ion Engines of the IPS are mounted on Thruster Gimbal Assembly (TGA), with only one engine operating at a time for this 10-year mission. The three TGAs weigh 14.6 kg.

Lo, C. John↗