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Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response
Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.
Scaling Demand Flexibility: Building on 30 Years of Energy Efficiency Success
With electricity consumption across the United States (US) and Canada anticipated to grow, energy efficiency program administrators have a key role to play in helping to ensure energy affordability and reliability in support of the broader economic systems utilities and grid support. Connected, demand side load balancing solutions, such as load shifting heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and managed charging for electric vehicles (EVs), can dynamically manage energy, allowing for more volumetric electricity consumption without incurring the expense of upgraded transmission and distribution capabilities. When combined, or aggregated, many small loads can be managed to have meaningful impact on energy demand on the grid. Utilities and their partners have an opportunity to leverage decades of experience and the infrastructure needed to assess, design, implement, and measure programs to scale up the adoption of equipment with built-in load flexibility capabilities. Current efforts among a wide variety of electricity system service providers, utilities, standards agencies, regulators, national labs and private industry stakeholders aim to identify common standards, metrics, and methodologies for valuing grid services offered by demand side equipment. By combining those efforts with decades of proven energy efficiency resources, utilities are poised to effectuate a scaling up of equipment with energy management capabilities installed in homes and businesses across the US and Canada. This paper will provide an overview of how utilities are approaching this era of load growth and new peak demands across the United States and Canada. It will highlight the specific strategies that program administrators are employing to advance market transformation for grid-enabled products and devices that have the greatest potential to reduce energy use and increase load flexibility.
India Power Sector Reliability Analysis [Slides]
The objective of the study is to assess pathways for India to achieve its 2070 power sector goals reliably and cost-effectively by considering various supply- and demand-side factors to support planning by national stakeholders including the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC
Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.
Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications
This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.
Preliminary Assessment for the Electric Load Shifting Potential of Integrating Thermal Energy Storage with Heat Pumps in Residential Buildings in Texas of United States
The widespread adoption of electric-driven heat pumps for heating and cooling is expected to significantly increase electric demand. Cooling electric demand will result in an increase in peak hours electric loads, placing additional strain on the grid during peak hours. This challenge, combined with the current rapidly increasing demand from data centers, exacerbates the electric demand duck curve problem. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with heat pump can shift electric use for heating and cooling from peak to off-peak hours of the electric grid, which can help flatten the daily electric demand profile of a building. This paper presents a novel design that integrates heat pump with TES (HP-TES), which uses phase change materials (PCM). Heat pump charges TES by melting or freezing PCM during off-peak hours when there is no thermal demand from the building. TES is then discharged (i.e., by freezing or melting PCM) during peak hours to provide a more favorable heat source or heat sink for the heat pump to meet the thermal demand of the building with lower electricity use than conventional air-source heat pumps. Computer simulations were developed to predict the performance of HP-TES applied to a typical single-family house in the US. The building-level simulation results were scaled up to preliminarily assess the aggregated impacts of deploying HP-TES across all single-family houses in Texas of the United States, including reduction of peak demand of the electric grid.
Building Operation Model (Morpheus) for Dallas Fort Worth Airport (CRADA CRD-19-16301 Final Report)
The primary objective of this project was to leverage digital twin technology to enhance the design and operation of DFW Airport terminals and their associated energy systems. To achieve this, Morpheus, a building digital twin, was developed to guide improvements in airport operations, specifically targeting reductions in peak power demand and overall energy consumption.
Regulatory Compliance and Best Practices for Power Purchase Agreements, Wheeling and Banking and Interconnections: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-23-24436
Strategy support to determine the best approach to deploy solar technologies and commercially viable heat pump projects across their existing Rural Energy Partners solar project development support channel.
Advanced blade-shaped thermal energy storage device: Development and application
Thermal energy storage (TES) using phase change materials (PCMs) is a promising approach for capturing and reusing excess thermal energy, yet widespread adoption is limited by low thermal conductivity, bulky configurations, and inadequate scalability. Here, this study presents a modular, blade-shaped TES prototype designed to address these challenges. The device integrates a lightweight aluminum shell, an embedded serpentine coil for active or passive heat exchange, and a cost-effective corrugated metal mesh for enhanced PCM thermal conductivity. With thickness-to-length and thickness-to-width ratios of 0.03 and 0.08, respectively, the blade-shaped TES achieves a compact, modular form factor suitable for space-constrained applications. Experimental testing demonstrated the efficient charge and discharge behavior of blade-shaped TES, capturing PCM superheating, phase-change transitions, and subcooling dynamics, with charging and discharging efficiencies of 94.9% and 94.6%, respectively. Also, the system can potentially achieve higher energy density than that of conventional TES designs. When integrated into a household refrigerator during the study, three blade-shaped TES modules successfully shifted 100% of peak-time compressor operation to off-peak hours, reducing energy consumption while maintaining more stable compartment temperatures. The blade-shaped TES's thin geometry, modularity, and enhanced thermal performance support scalable deployment across residential, commercial, and industrial applications, providing a versatile, cost-effective solution for high-efficiency, demand-flexible thermal energy management.
Field Validation of a Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Software Solution
The U.S. General Services Administration's (GSA's) Green Proving Ground (GPG) program, in partnership with the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), completed a field study of a Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) software solution. The study focused on a single testbed facility to test the GEB functionality of the software solution, along with other features. The testbed facility - a courthouse - is a common building type in GSA's vast building portfolio, offering potentially impactful findings on a scalable level. The study evaluated Prescriptive Data's technology, Nantum OS, a connected building operating system ("GEB Solution") which aggregates multiple sources of previously siloed building data and combines that data with external sources, such as weather information or utility signals, into a single integrated platform. A GEB Solution is a type of Energy Management Information System (EMIS). EMIS is defined as a system of devices, data services, and software applications that communicates with any building system or third-party data source to aggregate and transform data into new capabilities to aid in the optimization of energy use at the building, campus, or agency level. This specific GEB Solution is an EMIS with ASO, automated system optimization, offering supervisory control of certain aspects of the Building Automation System (BAS). Multiple features were evaluated including, but not limited to, Continuous Demand Management to avoid setting new monthly kilowatt (kW) peaks, energy efficiency for reduction of kilowatt hours (kWh) and natural gas consumption, and automated demand response (ADR) for purposes of lowering demand during a utility called Demand Response (DR) event. The testbed facility was the Foley Federal Building and US Courthouse ("Foley Federal Building") located in Las Vegas, NV. This is a 209,496 sq. ft. building constructed in the 1960s with major renovations in 2004. The facility was a good candidate due to the large prevalence of office and courthouse spaces in the GSA portfolio of buildings. It also has many features which allow integration into and control of the building and a strong facilities team to assist with the study. Quantitative and qualitative performance objectives were developed using GSA's GPG GEB project template along with input from the vendor and building facility staff; these are outlined in Table 1. The quantitative performance objectives focused on continuous demand management, energy efficiency, and automated demand response. The qualitative performance objectives focused on the ease of installation and commissioning as well as the operability of the GEB solution. Other performance metrics that are reported on include carbon reduction, cost effectiveness, and occupant acceptance.
Socio-Techno-Economic Feasibility of Deep Geothermal with EGS for Residential District Heating in the Northeastern United States
In this paper, we present socio-techno-economic simulation results for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) district heating systems in the northeastern United States. We applied the geospatial Distributed Geothermal Market Demand (dGeo) tool coupled with GEOPHIRES to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal deep direct-use, utilizing EGS reservoirs for providing residential heating with district heating systems. The results were combined with JEDI results to assess social impacts. Simulation results assuming doublet EGS reservoirs with target production temperature of 80 degrees C and newly constructed district heating systems indicate a wide range in system levelized cost of heat (LCOH) values ranging from ~$15/MMBtu to over $1,000/MMBtu, with most the attractive regions urban areas with high total thermal demand and high thermal demand density. We estimate about 60 GWth in potential installed capacity with LCOH values under $50/MMBtu and 100 GWth in potential capacity with LCOH values under $100/MMBtu, respectively.
Integrating AI Data Centers with the Power Grid
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered an unprecedented surge in electricity demand, with US data center energy use projected to double or triple 2023 levels by 2028. This exponential growth places strain on grid infrastructure, which can hinder timely construction of desired computing capacity. To bridge this supply-demand gap, utilities and AI developers are increasingly turning to demand flexibility, a strategy that incentivizes shifting or reducing power use during peak periods of grid stress. Data centers are uniquely equipped for flexible operations due to their digital workloads, built-in redundancy, and onsite energy assets. This article outlines four primary mechanisms to enable data center flexibility: computational load flexibility (shifting tasks temporally or geographically), flexible use of core facility infrastructure adjustments, energy storage utilization, and onsite electricity generation. To encourage adoption, utilities are deploying new tariff designs, including voluntary interruptible service riders, mandated flexibility requirements, and streamlined interconnection processes for flexible loads. For the highly capitalized and rapidly growing AI industry, the primary motivators for embracing these strategies are expediting facility interconnection, satisfying emerging regulatory mandates, and mitigating community resistance. While demand flexibility cannot substitute the long-term need for new bulk power generation, it serves as an essential, immediate solution for enabling near-term deployment. By transforming data centers from grid stressors into stabilizing assets, flexible operations can ensure reliable grid integration, ease market pressures, and support a resilient power system.
A Review of Direct Ink Writing of Polymer Derived Ceramics
With the growing demand for materials capable of withstanding extreme temperatures and pressures, ceramic components with exceptional corrosion resistance and reliable mechanical properties have experienced a significant surge in demand. However, traditional ceramic forming methods involve high-temperatures and energy-intensive processes that often struggle to produce complex parts or composites efficiently. Polymer-Derived Ceramics (PDCs) offer a transformative solution by using polymeric precursors that can be converted into a wide variety of silicon-based and non-silicon-based ceramics through heat treatment. The polymeric nature of PDC precursors enables the fabrication of geometrically intricate components using conventional polymer-forming techniques at significantly lower processing temperatures. Furthermore, PDCs are well-suited for additive manufacturing (AM), allowing the production of complex structural and functional components through cost-effective, low-temperature processes. By leveraging the diverse properties of PDC materials – each with unique advantages and limitations – manufacturers can optimise performance for specific applications. This review provides an overview of the types of PDCs developed to date and their broad range of applications. Specifically, it delves into the Direct Ink Writing (DIW) process, exploring its rheological requirements and the critical role of fillers in tailoring the rheological properties of polymeric precursors to meet the specific demands of DIW.
Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting
Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.
Hybrid Power Purchase Agreements for Flexible 24/7 Energy Delivery – A Comprehensive Review of Current Practices and Research Pathways
Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming increasingly preferred among large energy consumers, such as data centers, to secure cost-effective energy and meet accelerating demand growth. Traditionally, variable renewable energy (VRE)-based PPAs operate on a pay-as-produced basis, balancing supply and demand for a relatively longer duration (e.g., annually). However, the focus is shifting toward matching supply and demand on an hourly basis to fully meet energy needs. This shift requires the integration of flexible energy resources, such as hydropower, thermal generation, and energy storage, to complement VRE sources like wind and solar, forming the foundation for 24/7 PPA. This work contributes by: (i) reviewing emerging market trends and current practices in PPA procurement, supported by data on PPA prices and technology portfolios; (ii) synthesizing the existing literature on modeling approaches for contract pricing, quantities, hybrid resource procurement, and risk management in 24/7 PPA design, while identifying key research gaps; and (iii) proposing an integrated 24/7 PPA design framework along with two contracting mechanisms from the perspectives of both PPA providers and consumers. The proposed framework highlights critical modeling challenges, risk-allocation issues, and future research opportunities for 24/7 PPA design.
Reverse Logistics Ev Battery Recycling Agent Base Model
This represents the initial regional tier of the electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling agent base model. Through this model, we can ascertain the number of EV purchases at both the state and regional levels. We employ census data to develop a diverse household profile to inform decisions regarding the acquisition of new or used EVs. The number of EV purchases at the state level will affect the future demand for recycling, reuse, and repurposing of end-of-life EV batteries. Additionally, tax credits, EV rebate programs, and the financial capacity of households will influence the number of EV purchases, thereby further impacting the demand for EV battery recycling.
Performance Optimization for Lunar Extravehicular Activity Readiness (POLAR) Study: Methods Paper
To better understand which aspects of physical fitness may be most related to performance during Lunar surface operations and thereby help to inform the current NASA fitness standards, much can be learned from fields encompassing the “tactical athlete.” Other physically demanding professions such as law enforcement, military, or rescue professionals often require candidates to meet occupationally-relevant fitness standards. The determination of such standards is a multistep process, including both objective and subjective measures, to determine tasks essential to occupational performance and identify the minimal fitness profile needed to meet physical demands of the job. Notably, fitness is only one component which may contribute to the demands of astronaut selection, flight assignment, and occupational performance. Utilizing a framework to systematically determine which domains of fitness most contribute to relevant job tasks can aid in the refinement of current NASA-STD-3001 fitness standards. Therefore, NASA’s Exercise Physiology & Countermeasures Laboratory conducted the Performance Optimization for Lunar Extravehicular Activity Readiness (POLAR) study to identify and examine a comprehensive list of fitness tests (including NASA-STD-3001 assessments: 1-Repetition Maximum [1-RM] bench press and deadlift) and determine preliminary relationships between identified fitness parameters and novel Artemis-relevant tasks to help inform future investigations for the continued development of aerobic and muscular fitness standards for surface EVAs. This was accomplished through 1) a review of the literature relating fitness assessments to simulated or real EVA performance to identify fitness tests that are most correlated with simulated EVA task performance; 2) a task analysis following a modified framework for physical employment standards development to down select mission critical tasks; and 3) development and pilot testing of a novel, portable Artemis-relevant EVA task circuit to relate to a battery of fitness assessments. The current report describes the methodology used to complete the task analysis, EVA task circuit development, and the pilot study.