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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States

The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.

Langevin, Jared↗

Team Training and Retention of Skills Acquired Above Real Time Training on a Flight Simulator

Above Real-Time Training (ARTT) is the training acquired on a real time simulator when it is modified to present events at a faster pace than normal. The experiments related to training of pilots performed by NASA engineers (Kolf in 1973, Hoey in 1976) and others (Guckenberger, Crane and their associates in the nineties) have shown that in comparison with the real time training (RTT), ARTT provides the following benefits: increased rate of skill acquisition, reduced simulator and aircraft training time, and more effective training for emergency procedures. Two sets of experiments have been performed; they are reported in professional conferences and the respective papers are included in this report. The retention of effects of ARTT has been studied in the first set of experiments and the use of ARTT as top-off training has been examined in the second set of experiments. In ARTT, the pace of events was 1.5 times the pace in RTT. In both sets of experiments, university students were trained to perform an aerial gunnery task. The training unit was equipped with a joystick and a throttle. The student acted as a nose gunner in a hypothetical two place attack aircraft. The flight simulation software was installed on a Universal Distributed Interactive Simulator platform supplied by ECC International of Orlando, Florida. In the first set of experiments, two training programs RTT or ART7 were used. Students were then tested in real time on more demanding scenarios: either immediately after training or two days later. The effects of ARTT did not decrease over a two day retention interval and ARTT was more time efficient than real time training. Therefore, equal test performance could be achieved with less clock-time spent in the simulator. In the second set of experiments three training programs RTT or ARTT or RARTT, were used. In RTT, students received 36 minutes of real time training. In ARTT, students received 36 minutes of above real time training. In RARTT, students received 18 minutes of real time training and 18 minutes of above real time training as top-off training. Students were then tested in real time on more demanding scenarios. The use of ARTT as top-off training after RTT offered better training than RTT alone or ARTT alone. It is, however, suggested that a similar experiment be conducted on a relatively more complex task with a larger sample of participants. Within the proposed duration of the research effort, the setting up of experiments and trial runs on using ARTT for team training were also scheduled but they could not be accomplished due to extra ordinary challenges faced in developing the required software configuration. Team training is, however, scheduled in a future study sponsored by NASA at Tuskegee University.

Ali, Syed Friasat↗

Providing Levelized Cost and Waiting Time Inputs for HDV Hydrogen Refueling Station Planning: A Case Study of U.S. I-75 Corridor

Widespread use of diesel fuels in freight transportation leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that play an important role in air pollution. The air pollution, as well as the energy crisis, drives the transition from diesel fuel to cleaner and more energy-efficient fuels such as hydrogen fuels. With such a transition, the strategic planning and optimization of supporting refueling infrastructure along the national highway for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) become a necessity. Cost and service level are two essential factors to be considered in hydrogen refueling station location and capacity optimization. The service level in this study is assessed by the delay (waiting time) at fueling stations as well as the fueling demand fulfilled. To this end, this study presents a methodology to provide waiting time (delay) and levelized hydrogen fuel cost inputs under different station configurations (number of dispensers and fill rates) for hydrogen refueling station planning. Determining the station configurations based on the trade-off between the two inputs is further discussed. Particularly, this study points out that the levelized cost and waiting time are affected by hourly demand patterns and estimates the two inputs under different peak hour fueling demand scenarios. The results suggest that, with the same daily demand, the cost, as well as the waiting time, increases obviously with the peak hour demand. In the case study, the cost grows at least 30% when the peak hour visit frequency of the daily total visits increases from 5% (evenly distributed pattern) to 10% (the most common pattern for existing diesel fueling stations along I-75). Accounting for this peak hour effect in hydrogen refueling station planning is recommended. Overall, the waiting time model and cost analysis provide key inputs for optimizing hydrogen refueling station location and configurations based on anticipated refueling demand patterns. The paper is the second in a series that aims to build a comprehensive modeling plan and optimize hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Interstate 75 (I-75) corridor for HDVs.

Liu, Yuandong↗

The ReSWARM microgravity flight experiments: Planning, control, and model estimation for on‐orbit close proximity operations

Abstract On‐orbit close proximity operations involve robotic spacecraft maneuvering and making decisions for a growing number of mission scenarios demanding autonomy, including on‐orbit assembly, repair, and astronaut assistance. Of these scenarios, on‐orbit assembly is an enabling technology that will allow large space structures to be built in situ, using smaller building block modules. However, like many of these scenarios, robotic on‐orbit assembly involves several technical hurdles, such as changing system models. For instance, grappled modules moved by a free‐flying “assembler” robot can cause significant changes in the combined system inertia, which have cascading impacts on motion planning and control portions of the autonomy stack. Further, on‐orbit assembly and other scenarios require collision‐avoiding motion planning, particularly when operating in a “construction site” scenario of multiple assembler robots and structures. Multiple key technologies that address these complicating factors for autonomous microgravity close proximity operations are detailed in this work, in particular: (1) application of global long‐horizon planning, accomplished using offline and online sampling‐based planner options that consider the system dynamics; (2) adaptation of the recently proposed RATTLE information‐aware planning framework for on‐orbit reconfiguration model learning; and (3) connection with robust control tools to provide low‐level control robustness using current system knowledge. These approaches were demonstrated for an autonomous on‐orbit assembly use case by the RElative Satellite sWarming and Robotic Maneuvering (ReSWARM) experiments using NASA's Astrobee robots on the International Space Station. Results of the ReSWARM experiments are provided along with significant operational and implementation detail discussing the practicalities of hardware implementation and unique aspects of working with the Astrobee free‐flyer robots in microgravity. ReSWARM provides a base set of planning and control tools for robotic close proximity operations, demonstrates them in microgravity, and outlines some of the important hardware aspects that future autonomous free‐flyers will need to consider.

Robotics↗

Platinum Group Metals Global Economics Market Supply

Due to uncertainty in the transition away from internal combustion engines (and more importantly, the catalytic convertors these automobiles use), there is large uncertainty in the future of the PGM market. However, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers could be a new demand application for PGMs. Therefore, a model was developed which utilizes the system dynamics approach to predict supply and prices for specific demand scenarios. Results indicated that the total PGM market value sees a decline in the late 2020s due to changing automotive application demand. Market decline was due to decreasing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle demand resulting in less PGMs supplied for automotive applications. Compounding market decline was an increase in secondary supply of PGMs as more ICE automotives reach their EOL pushing PGM prices down as secondary supply increases while demand simultaneously decreases. Following the market decline, an increase in market value in the early 2030s was observed due to deployment of hydrogen fuel cell technologies and subsequent increase in PGM demand

Kulkarni, Sameer (0000000227573592)↗

Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

Russell, Carl R.↗

Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply In-frastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX

Datasets supporting findings and visualization behind Okoye and McManamay (2025) Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply Infrastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX. Environmental Research Communications, DOI: 10.57931/2563186 These datasets contains the results of a site selection analysis for municipal water supply planning across multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1–5) and hard scenario classification of water systems in San Antonio, TX. It includes data at the resolution of individual surface water supply sources (COMIDs) and integrates a wide range of hydrologic, socioeconomic, infrastructural, and scenario-based planning variables. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Dataset_SSP1_SSP4.xlsx - Contains data used for site selection optimization under SSP1 to SSP4. This dataset was generated based on multi-indicator computations (e.g., WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, WIC), scenario demand projections, and resource and spatial constraints, excluding new reservoir values. Dataset_SSP5.xlsx - Used for site optimization under SSP5. Unlike Dataset_SSP1_SSP4, this dataset includes new reservoir features with updated calculations of WAI, WTC, and WIC to reflect the added infrastructure and supply potential. hard_classification.xlsx - Provides the scenario classification output for each site. Includes both the initial scenario classification based on Euclidean Distance and adjusted classifications based on 30% change reduction BAU.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing spatially optimized water supply sites per SSP under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) water demand strategy LowGW.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing optimized site selections under the Low Groundwater strategy

geospatial↗

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Climate-change policyHydrology↗

Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries

The world is shifting to electric vehicles to mitigate climate change. Here, we quantify the future demand for key battery materials, considering potential electric vehicle fleet and battery chemistry developments as well as second-use and recycling of electric vehicle batteries. We find that in a lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide dominated battery scenario, demand is estimated to increase by factors of 18–20 for lithium, 17–19 for cobalt, 28–31 for nickel, and 15–20 for most other materials from 2020 to 2050, requiring a drastic expansion of lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains and likely additional resource discovery. However, uncertainties are large. Key factors are the development of the electric vehicles fleet and battery capacity requirements per vehicle. If other battery chemistries were used at large scale, e.g. lithium iron phosphate or novel lithium-sulphur or lithium-air batteries, the demand for cobalt and nickel would be substantially smaller. Closed-loop recycling plays a minor, but increasingly important role for reducing primary material demand until 2050, however, advances in recycling are necessary to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. Second-use of electric vehicles batteries further delays recycling potentials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Hydrogen Carriers for Renewable Microgrid System Applications

Utility-scale energy storage can help improve grid reliability, reduce costs, and promote faster adoption of intermittent sources such as solar and wind. This paper analyzes the technical aspects and economics of standalone microgrids operating on intermittent power combined with hydrogen energy storage. It explores the feasibility of using dibenzyltoluene (DBT) as a liquid organic hydrogen carrier to absorb excess energy during periods of high supply and polymer electrolyte fuel cells to generate electrical energy during periods of low supply. A comparative analysis is conducted on three power demand scenarios (industrial, residential, and office), in conjunction with three alternative energy sources: solar, wind and wind–solar mix. A mixed system of solar and wind energy can maintain an annual average efficiency above 70%, except for residential power demand, which lowered the efficiency to 67%. A balanced combination of wind and solar power was the most cost-effective option. The current levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for industrial power demand was estimated to 15 ¢/kWh, and it is projected to decrease to 9 ¢/kWh in the future. For residential power demand, the LCOE was 45% higher due to the demand profile. In comparison, battery storage is significantly more expensive than hydrogen storage, even with future cost projections, increasing the LCOE between 60 and 120 ¢/kWh.

PEM electrolysis↗

Hydrogen use projections and supply options

Two projections of future hydrogen demand, based on the Ford technical fix and the Westinghouse nuclear electric economy energy supply and demand scenarios, are analyzed. It is suggested that hydrogen use will increase during the remainder of this century by at least a factor of five, and perhaps by a factor of twenty. Primary energy sources for producing hydrogen are discussed in terms of the transition from low to high demand for hydrogen.

Manvi, R.↗

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation↗

Pressure-Fed LOX/LCH4 Reaction Control System for Spacecraft: Transient Modeling and Thermal Vacuum Hotfire Test Results

An integrated cryogenic liquid oxygen, liquid methane (LOX/LCH4) reaction control system (RCS) was tested at NASA Glenn Research Center's Plum Brook Station in the Spacecraft Propulsion Research Facility (B-2) under vacuum and thermal vacuum conditions. The RCS is a subsystem of the Integrated Cryogenic Propulsion Test Article (ICPTA), a pressure-fed LOX/LCH4 propulsion system composed of a single 2,800 lbf main engine, two 28 lbf RCS engines, and two 7 lbf RCS engines. Propellants are stored in four 48 inch diameter 5083 aluminum tanks that feed both the main engine and RCS engines in parallel. Helium stored cryogenically in a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) flows through a heat exchanger on the main engine before being used to pressurize the propellant tanks to a design operating pressure of 325 psi. The ICPTA is capable of simultaneous main engine and RCS operation. The RCS engines utilize a coil-on-plug (COP) ignition system designed for operation in a vacuum environment, eliminating corona discharge issues associated with a high voltage lead. There are two RCS pods on the ICPTA, with two engines on each pod. One of these two engines is a heritage flight engine from Project Morpheus. Its sea level nozzle was removed and replaced by an 85:1 nozzle machined using Inconel 718, resulting in a maximum thrust of 28 lbf under altitude conditions. The other engine is a scaled down version of the 28 lbf engine, designed to match the core and overall mixture ratios as well as other injector characteristics. This engine can produce a maximum thrust of 7 lbf with an 85:1 nozzle that was additively manufactured using Inconel 718. Both engines are film-cooled and capable of limited duration gas-gas and gas-liquid operation, as well as steady-state liquid-liquid operation. Each pod contains one of each version, such that two engines of the same thrust level can be fired as a couple on opposite pods. The RCS feed system is composed of symmetrical 3/8 inch lines that tap off of the main propellant manifold to send LOX and LCH4 outboard to the RCS pods. A Thermodynamic Vent System (TVS) is used to condition propellants at each pod by venting through an orifice and then routing the cold expansion products back through tubing that is welded along a large portion of the main RCS feed lines. Prior to final installation on the ICPTA, the RCS engines were tested in a small vacuum chamber at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Energy Systems Test Area (ESTA) to verify functionality of the new COP ignition system and check out operation of the vacuum nozzles. After engine-level testing, the RCS engines were installed on the vehicle and a series of integrated hot-fire tests were performed at JSC consisting of various pulsing and steady-state firings as well as integrated main engine/RCS operation. The ICPTA was then integrated into the Plum Brook B-2 facility for vacuum and thermal/vacuum testing. Testing in the B-2 facility was composed of multiple thermal and pressure environments. The first set of tests were performed under ambient temperature and altitude pressure conditions. These tests consisted of a range of minimum impulse bit (MIB) pulsing sequences with low duty cycle, analogous to a coast phase in which the RCS is primarily used for station keeping. The primary goal of this sequence is to understand how propellant conditions were effected without an active TVS. In this scenario, consistent gas-gas operation is desirable since it results in a smaller MIB and more efficient propellant consumption. Multiple skin thermocouples are mounted on the feedlines, in addition to a submerged thermocouple on each commodity, in order to gather thermal data on the system. Higher duty cycle pulsing tests were then performed, analogous to an ascent or landing mission phase. The primary goal of this sequence was to examine how well the engines self-conditioned without active TVS when starting from a quiescent state. The TVS was then activated during some tests to demonstrate the capability to quickly condition the engines for higher pulsing demand scenarios. A thermocouple at the TVS outlet allows for the calculation of energy absorbed by the vented propellant. Lastly, tests with longer pulses and multiple engines firing either in sequence or simultaneously were run in order to gather transient system response data on waterhammer. Six total high-speed pressure transducers are installed on the RCS system, one sensor at the end of each propellant manifold line on the pods, and one at the tap-off location for each commodity. This will allow for the accurate characterization of waterhammer in the system under various propellant conditions and firing sequences. Other instrumentation for this test series includes nozzle throat thermocouples, chamber pressure measurement, heat soakback measurement, and tank wall plume impingement temperature measurement. The next set of tests were performed to demonstrate simultaneous main engine and RCS operation. Data from this test will be used to examine if there is any change to nominal operation of the RCS as a result of feed system interaction or other phenomenon. Some of these tests began under high vacuum conditions (target ambient pressure less than 1x10(exp -3) torr) and others began at altitude conditions. The last set of tests were performed with the B-2 cold wall active. Under these tests, many of the same low duty cycle MIB tests were repeated in order to characterize how propellant conditions changed with the lower heat leak. In this scenario the RCS manifold experiences much less heat leak, resulting in a change to how well the engines self-condition. As a result, an increase in maximum waterhammer pressures and a change in natural frequency of the system was expected due to higher density propellants. The lower heat leak should also result in a change to the MIB pulse profile, and data will be examined to understand how MIB repeatability is affected in the different operating environments. Parallel to the test efforts, a set of transient model development efforts were made to predict RCS performance. The primary effort was aimed at producing a SINDA/FLUINT model to predict propellant conditioning up to the engine inlet as a function of different environmental and operating parameters, with the goal of predicting chamber pressure, TVS performance, and propellant consumption over time. Preliminary results for this effort will be presented in comparison with test data. Additional modeling efforts were made using SINDA/FLUINT to predict waterhammer in the system since the software is capable of handling multiphase transient fluid dynamics. These results will be compared with the high-speed pressure transducer test data for validation purposes.

Atwell, Matthew J.↗

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Thermal Dynamics and Lithium Plating Detection in High‐Power Li‐Ion Batteries for eVTOL Applications

The rapid electrification of aerial transportation is driving the need for high‐performance Li‐ion batteries that can operate reliably under stringent thermal and safety constraints. The unique mission profile of electric Vertical Take‐off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft necessitates a focused investigation into the thermal behavior and safety characteristics of these batteries. Here, in this study, operando isothermal microcalorimetry is employed to examine the thermal evolution of Li‐ion batteries under cycling conditions representative of eVTOL operations. These findings reveal that high‐power discharge events—such as those during take‐off and landing—shift the thermal response toward exothermic behavior, in contrast to the typically endothermic response expected under near‐equilibrium cycling conditions. Additionally, the results suggest that advanced electrolyte formulations may help suppress excess heat generation, thereby improving battery safety. Notably, the calorimetric results exhibit a distinct thermal signature associated with lithium plating, offering a potential diagnostic for detecting Li plating during eVTOL operation. Overall, this study demonstrates the utility of isothermal microcalorimetry as a valuable tool for assessing thermal risks in Li‐ion batteries for eVTOL applications, and highlights the importance of targeted design strategies to mitigate safety hazards during high‐power demand scenarios.

Li plating↗

Reliability-informed end-of-use decision making for product sustainability using two-stage stochastic optimization

The concept of circular economy has been diffused in recent decades to promote economic growth that does not add to the burden on natural resource extraction. Re-X options (e.g., reuse, repair, refurbish, remanufacture, recycle) have been gradually adopted in the product development process and optimized to reduce or eliminate waste and pollution. Although manufacturing incorporating Re-X options can be more environmentally friendly, it involves more sources of uncertainty than traditional manufacturing since the end-of-use products can be collected from multiple origins with various quantities and qualities, and the market demand for both new and remanufactured products cannot be forecasted perfectly. Thus, there is a need to optimize the Re-X policy to alleviate the negative impacts of the higher uncertainty. One option is using the reliability information of new products to estimate the end-of-use conditions and applying multi-stage stochastic optimization to capture multiple demand scenarios. This paper develops a two-stage stochastic optimization model to optimize the quality thresholds for reuse, recycling, and remanufacturing options. Our objective is to minimize the total cost, energy consumption, and environmental impact of producing and providing warranty service for a product family. The model employs reliability information of product components to estimate the warranty service cost and the end-of-use conditions of the returned resources. A case study on a general product family is implemented to illustrate the efficacy of the optimization model. Finally, results show that the two-stage optimization can achieve cost and environmental impact reduction for a hybrid manufacturing and remanufacturing process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A systems engineering framework for the optimization of food supply chains under circular economy considerations

The current linear “take-make-waste-extractive” model leads to the depletion of natural resources and environmental degradation. Circular Economy (CE) aims to address these impacts by building supply chains that are restorative, regenerative, and environmentally benign. This can be achieved through the re-utilization of products and materials, the extensive usage of renewable energy sources, and ultimately by closing any open material loops. Such a transition towards environmental, economic and social advancements requires analytical tools for quantitative evaluation of the alternative pathways. Here, in this work, we present a novel CE system engineering framework and decision-making tool for the modeling and optimization of food supply chains. First, the alternative pathways for the production of the desired product and the valorization of wastes and by-products are identified. Then, a Resource-Task-Network representation that captures all these pathways is utilized, based on which a mixed-integer linear programming model is developed. This approach allows the holistic modeling and optimization of the entire food supply chain, taking into account any of its special characteristics, potential constraints as well as different objectives. Considering that typically CE introduces multiple, often conflicting objectives, we deploy here a multi-objective optimization strategy for trade-off analysis. A representative case study for the supply chain of coffee is discussed, illustrating the steps and the applicability of the framework. Single and multi-objective optimization formulations under five different coffee-product demand scenarios are presented. The production of instant coffee as the only final product is shown to be the least energy and environmental efficient scenario. On the contrary, the production solely of whole beans sets a hypothetical upper bound on the optimal energy and environmental utilization. In both problems presented, the amount of energy generated is significant due to the utilization of waste generated for the production of excess energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗