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At least 19 records

Team Training and Retention of Skills Acquired Above Real Time Training on a Flight Simulator

Above Real-Time Training (ARTT) is the training acquired on a real time simulator when it is modified to present events at a faster pace than normal. The experiments related to training of pilots performed by NASA engineers (Kolf in 1973, Hoey in 1976) and others (Guckenberger, Crane and their associates in the nineties) have shown that in comparison with the real time training (RTT), ARTT provides the following benefits: increased rate of skill acquisition, reduced simulator and aircraft training time, and more effective training for emergency procedures. Two sets of experiments have been performed; they are reported in professional conferences and the respective papers are included in this report. The retention of effects of ARTT has been studied in the first set of experiments and the use of ARTT as top-off training has been examined in the second set of experiments. In ARTT, the pace of events was 1.5 times the pace in RTT. In both sets of experiments, university students were trained to perform an aerial gunnery task. The training unit was equipped with a joystick and a throttle. The student acted as a nose gunner in a hypothetical two place attack aircraft. The flight simulation software was installed on a Universal Distributed Interactive Simulator platform supplied by ECC International of Orlando, Florida. In the first set of experiments, two training programs RTT or ART7 were used. Students were then tested in real time on more demanding scenarios: either immediately after training or two days later. The effects of ARTT did not decrease over a two day retention interval and ARTT was more time efficient than real time training. Therefore, equal test performance could be achieved with less clock-time spent in the simulator. In the second set of experiments three training programs RTT or ARTT or RARTT, were used. In RTT, students received 36 minutes of real time training. In ARTT, students received 36 minutes of above real time training. In RARTT, students received 18 minutes of real time training and 18 minutes of above real time training as top-off training. Students were then tested in real time on more demanding scenarios. The use of ARTT as top-off training after RTT offered better training than RTT alone or ARTT alone. It is, however, suggested that a similar experiment be conducted on a relatively more complex task with a larger sample of participants. Within the proposed duration of the research effort, the setting up of experiments and trial runs on using ARTT for team training were also scheduled but they could not be accomplished due to extra ordinary challenges faced in developing the required software configuration. Team training is, however, scheduled in a future study sponsored by NASA at Tuskegee University.

Ali, Syed Friasat↗

Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

Russell, Carl R.↗

Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Climate-change policyHydrology↗

Hydrogen use projections and supply options

Two projections of future hydrogen demand, based on the Ford technical fix and the Westinghouse nuclear electric economy energy supply and demand scenarios, are analyzed. It is suggested that hydrogen use will increase during the remainder of this century by at least a factor of five, and perhaps by a factor of twenty. Primary energy sources for producing hydrogen are discussed in terms of the transition from low to high demand for hydrogen.

Manvi, R.↗

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation↗

Pressure-Fed LOX/LCH4 Reaction Control System for Spacecraft: Transient Modeling and Thermal Vacuum Hotfire Test Results

An integrated cryogenic liquid oxygen, liquid methane (LOX/LCH4) reaction control system (RCS) was tested at NASA Glenn Research Center's Plum Brook Station in the Spacecraft Propulsion Research Facility (B-2) under vacuum and thermal vacuum conditions. The RCS is a subsystem of the Integrated Cryogenic Propulsion Test Article (ICPTA), a pressure-fed LOX/LCH4 propulsion system composed of a single 2,800 lbf main engine, two 28 lbf RCS engines, and two 7 lbf RCS engines. Propellants are stored in four 48 inch diameter 5083 aluminum tanks that feed both the main engine and RCS engines in parallel. Helium stored cryogenically in a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) flows through a heat exchanger on the main engine before being used to pressurize the propellant tanks to a design operating pressure of 325 psi. The ICPTA is capable of simultaneous main engine and RCS operation. The RCS engines utilize a coil-on-plug (COP) ignition system designed for operation in a vacuum environment, eliminating corona discharge issues associated with a high voltage lead. There are two RCS pods on the ICPTA, with two engines on each pod. One of these two engines is a heritage flight engine from Project Morpheus. Its sea level nozzle was removed and replaced by an 85:1 nozzle machined using Inconel 718, resulting in a maximum thrust of 28 lbf under altitude conditions. The other engine is a scaled down version of the 28 lbf engine, designed to match the core and overall mixture ratios as well as other injector characteristics. This engine can produce a maximum thrust of 7 lbf with an 85:1 nozzle that was additively manufactured using Inconel 718. Both engines are film-cooled and capable of limited duration gas-gas and gas-liquid operation, as well as steady-state liquid-liquid operation. Each pod contains one of each version, such that two engines of the same thrust level can be fired as a couple on opposite pods. The RCS feed system is composed of symmetrical 3/8 inch lines that tap off of the main propellant manifold to send LOX and LCH4 outboard to the RCS pods. A Thermodynamic Vent System (TVS) is used to condition propellants at each pod by venting through an orifice and then routing the cold expansion products back through tubing that is welded along a large portion of the main RCS feed lines. Prior to final installation on the ICPTA, the RCS engines were tested in a small vacuum chamber at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Energy Systems Test Area (ESTA) to verify functionality of the new COP ignition system and check out operation of the vacuum nozzles. After engine-level testing, the RCS engines were installed on the vehicle and a series of integrated hot-fire tests were performed at JSC consisting of various pulsing and steady-state firings as well as integrated main engine/RCS operation. The ICPTA was then integrated into the Plum Brook B-2 facility for vacuum and thermal/vacuum testing. Testing in the B-2 facility was composed of multiple thermal and pressure environments. The first set of tests were performed under ambient temperature and altitude pressure conditions. These tests consisted of a range of minimum impulse bit (MIB) pulsing sequences with low duty cycle, analogous to a coast phase in which the RCS is primarily used for station keeping. The primary goal of this sequence is to understand how propellant conditions were effected without an active TVS. In this scenario, consistent gas-gas operation is desirable since it results in a smaller MIB and more efficient propellant consumption. Multiple skin thermocouples are mounted on the feedlines, in addition to a submerged thermocouple on each commodity, in order to gather thermal data on the system. Higher duty cycle pulsing tests were then performed, analogous to an ascent or landing mission phase. The primary goal of this sequence was to examine how well the engines self-conditioned without active TVS when starting from a quiescent state. The TVS was then activated during some tests to demonstrate the capability to quickly condition the engines for higher pulsing demand scenarios. A thermocouple at the TVS outlet allows for the calculation of energy absorbed by the vented propellant. Lastly, tests with longer pulses and multiple engines firing either in sequence or simultaneously were run in order to gather transient system response data on waterhammer. Six total high-speed pressure transducers are installed on the RCS system, one sensor at the end of each propellant manifold line on the pods, and one at the tap-off location for each commodity. This will allow for the accurate characterization of waterhammer in the system under various propellant conditions and firing sequences. Other instrumentation for this test series includes nozzle throat thermocouples, chamber pressure measurement, heat soakback measurement, and tank wall plume impingement temperature measurement. The next set of tests were performed to demonstrate simultaneous main engine and RCS operation. Data from this test will be used to examine if there is any change to nominal operation of the RCS as a result of feed system interaction or other phenomenon. Some of these tests began under high vacuum conditions (target ambient pressure less than 1x10(exp -3) torr) and others began at altitude conditions. The last set of tests were performed with the B-2 cold wall active. Under these tests, many of the same low duty cycle MIB tests were repeated in order to characterize how propellant conditions changed with the lower heat leak. In this scenario the RCS manifold experiences much less heat leak, resulting in a change to how well the engines self-condition. As a result, an increase in maximum waterhammer pressures and a change in natural frequency of the system was expected due to higher density propellants. The lower heat leak should also result in a change to the MIB pulse profile, and data will be examined to understand how MIB repeatability is affected in the different operating environments. Parallel to the test efforts, a set of transient model development efforts were made to predict RCS performance. The primary effort was aimed at producing a SINDA/FLUINT model to predict propellant conditioning up to the engine inlet as a function of different environmental and operating parameters, with the goal of predicting chamber pressure, TVS performance, and propellant consumption over time. Preliminary results for this effort will be presented in comparison with test data. Additional modeling efforts were made using SINDA/FLUINT to predict waterhammer in the system since the software is capable of handling multiphase transient fluid dynamics. These results will be compared with the high-speed pressure transducer test data for validation purposes.

Atwell, Matthew J.↗

Demographics of Investigators Involved in OSSA-Funded Research

The birth of the U.S. civil space program and the subsequent, dramatic growth in the ranks of the space science research population occurred in the 1950s and 1960s'. The large, post- Sputnik/ Apollo buildup in space program manpower is now approximately one career-lifetime in the past. It is therefore natural to anticipate that a large fraction of the space program engineers, scientists, and managers who pioneered the early exploration of space are approaching retirement. Such a "retirement wave" bodes both a loss of manpower and, more fundamentally, a loss of experience from the civil-space manpower base. Such losses could play a critical role constraining in NASA's ability to expand or maintain its technical capabilities. If this indeed applies to the NASA space science research population, then the potential for problems is exacerbated by the anticipated growth in flight rates, data volume, and data-set diversity which will accompany the planned expansion in the OSSA science effort during the 1990s and 2000s. The purpose of this study was to describe the OSSA PI/Co-I population and to determine the degree to which the OSSA space science investigator population faces a retirement wave, and to estimate the future population of PIs in the 1990-2010 era. To conduct such a study, we investigated the present demographics of the PI and Co-1 population contained in the NASA/OSSA Announcement of Opportunity (AO) mailing list. PIs represent the "leadership" class of the OSSA scientific researcher population, and Co-Is represent one important, oncoming component of the "replacement" generation. Using the PI population data, we then make projection estimates of the future PI population from 1991 through 2010, under various NASA growth/PI demand scenarios.

Stern, S. Alan↗

The Airspace Concepts Evaluation System Architecture and System Plant

The Airspace Concepts Evaluation System is a simulation of the National Airspace System. It includes models of flights, airports, airspaces, air traffic controls, traffic flow managements, and airline operation centers operating throughout the United States. It is used to predict system delays in response to future capacity and demand scenarios and perform benefits assessments of current and future airspace technologies and operational concepts. Facilitation of these studies requires that the simulation architecture supports plug and play of different air traffic control, traffic flow management, and airline operation center models and multi-fidelity modeling of flights, airports, and airspaces. The simulation is divided into two parts that are named, borrowing from classical control theory terminology, control and plant. The control consists of air traffic control, traffic flow management, and airline operation center models, and the plant consists of flight, airport, and airspace models. The plant can run open loop, in the absence of the control. However, undesired affects, such as conflicts and over congestions in the airspaces and airports, can occur. Different controls are applied, "plug and played", to the plant. A particular control is evaluated by analyzing how well it managed conflicts and congestions. Furthermore, the terminal area plants consist of models of airports and terminal airspaces. Each model consists of a set of nodes and links which are connected by the user to form a network. Nodes model runways, fixes, taxi intersections, gates, and/or other points of interest, and links model taxiways, departure paths, and arrival paths. Metering, flow distribution, and sequencing functions can be applied at nodes. Different fidelity model of how a flight transits are can be used by links. The fidelity of the model can be adjusted by the user by either changing the complexity of the node/link network-or the way that the link models how the flights transit from one node to the other.

Windhorst, Robert↗

Synergies of Subaru and CGI

Given the limited observing time and demanding scenarios of the WFIRST coronagraph instrument (CGI), it is critical to consider how Subaru observations can benefit its observing program. Subaru telescope has a suite of instruments with their adaptive optics (AO) and extreme adaptive optics modules (SCExAO). With SCExAO, the Subaru telescope is capable of detection and spectral characterization of binaries and bright (greater than 5(exp -6) contrast) companions in the near-infrared. This will enable the vetting of targets, disk detection and characterization, and potentially some additional science should CGI identify interesting targets during its technology demonstration and potential guest observer program. Additionally, large companions that are within the inner working angle of the coronagraph can be identified using the VAMPIRES aperture masking interferometer. With highly complementary target brightness and significantly overlapping fields of view, there is a great deal of potential for combined observations with Subaru and CGI. This will represent the first time single observations spanning the visible to near-infrared will be possible for high contrast imaging. We will discuss the overlap of instrumentation over time, the implication of instrument evolution as TMT comes online, and how this can be used to improve both science and technology demonstrations for CGI.

adaptive optics (AO↗

Capacity and Throughput of Urban Air Mobility Vertiports with a First-Come, First-Served Vertiport Scheduling Algorithm

In this paper, a first-come, first-served vertiport scheduling algorithm for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) was exercised to assess and compare the capacity and throughput of various vertiport configurations. The scheduler models each vertiport by the number of vertipads and parking spaces, and manages reservations on timelines for those vertiport resources, at a level of fidelity suitable for fast-time and system-level analyses of UAM concepts and other airspace studies. The paper defines the theoretical model that can be used to estimate the capacity of various vertiport configurations. The theoretical model provides an understanding of the conditions that can lead to either a parking space-limited or a vertipad-limited vertiport. Examples of potential throughput for some vertiport configurations are provided using both a queueing approach as well as a simulated UAM demand scenario. The study demonstrated that a first-come, first-served scheduling approach can have inefficiencies in the use of the vertiport resources. The inefficiencies can increase as the number of resources increases. Nonetheless, 80% or better peak throughput to capacity ratio was observed for most vertiport configurations.

UAM↗

Demand Forecast Model Development and Scenarios Generation For Urban Air Mobility Concepts

The purpose of this project is to estimate the demand for various Urban Air Mobility Concepts (UAM) of Operations and to generate scenarios for use in analysis and simulations. The demand forecast model, previously developed under NASA/NIA Contract No: NNL13AA08B; Task Order No: NNL16AA36T, for an urban on-demand air-taxi commuter concept is the basis for this work.

M. Rimjha↗

The Last Orbit: Planning Cassini's Plummet into Saturn

Cassini’s final orbit around Saturn will culminate in a dramatic ending as the spacecraft plunges into the ringed planet’s atmosphere, never to escape or be heard from again. The last hours of the mission prior to the final loss of signal have some of the most unique and valuable science to date. Cassini will take a unique trajectory to dive deep into the atmosphere on its approach to final disposal and no spacecraft, Cassini included, has entered these depths of Saturn’s atmosphere. The science community has placed heavy emphasis onthis once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to inspect these deeper regions of Saturn’s atmosphere. The Cassini project specifically aims to collect the very last bits of data during the final plunge to get samples of the deepest regions before the spacecraft is lost forever. The desire to collect the final bits of data presents several challenges. Cassini’s Mission Planning (MP) team has developed an End of Mission (EOM) scenario to tackle these demands. The EOM scenario outlines the framework for the entire last orbit of the mission and details thestrategy for data collection and transmission. Attaining near real-time transmission is key for the acquisition of the very last bits of data. The Cassini spacecraft will use a new mode of operations to successfully achieve this real-time transmission. In addition to this primary investigation and planning for telecommunications, key risks have been studied within the realm of the last orbit. Ultimately, this paper shows how the Cassini Project plans to ensurethe return of every last bit of data before the spacecraft is consumed by Saturn forever.

Bittner, Molly E.↗

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

Network issues for large mass storage requirements

File Servers and Supercomputing environments need high performance networks to balance the I/O requirements seen in today's demanding computing scenarios. UltraNet is one solution which permits both high aggregate transfer rates and high task-to-task transfer rates as demonstrated in actual tests. UltraNet provides this capability as both a Server-to-Server and Server-to-Client access network giving the supercomputing center the following advantages highest performance Transport Level connections (to 40 MBytes/sec effective rates); matches the throughput of the emerging high performance disk technologies, such as RAID, parallel head transfer devices and software striping; supports standard network and file system applications using SOCKET's based application program interface such as FTP, rcp, rdump, etc.; supports access to the Network File System (NFS) and LARGE aggregate bandwidth for large NFS usage; provides access to a distributed, hierarchical data server capability using DISCOS UniTree product; supports file server solutions available from multiple vendors, including Cray, Convex, Alliant, FPS, IBM, and others.

Perdue, James↗

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all-subsonic future fleet. The methodology, procedures, and recommendations for the development of future HSCT and the subsonic fleet scenarios used for this evaluation are discussed.

Wuebbles, Donald J.↗

The 30/20 GHZ net market assessment

By creating a number of market scenarios variations dealing with network types, network sizes, and service price levels were analyzed for their impact on market demand. Each market scenario represents a market demand forecast with results for voice, data, and video service traffic expressed in peak load megabits per second.

Rogers, J. C.↗

Advanced technology satellites in the commercial environment. Volume 1: Executive summary

A set of scenarios, based on a set of traffic demand forecasts is postulated. The scenarios use a demand-driven model to launch satellites, with other limits on the available (and economical) technology. The results using a low traffic forecast show a continuing oversupply of transponders. However, the scenarios using a high traffic forecast show that considerable advanced technology including the use of 30/20 GHz is needed to satisfy demand.

Source record↗