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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Can We Model Forest Demography Globally? Benchmarking of State-of-the-Art Demographic DGVMs

Forests in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have historically been simulated as area-averaged plant functional types in each gridcell instead of representing communities of trees of different sizes and ages (demography). Just as the behaviour of a tree differs according to its ontogeny, so the behaviour of forests is known to differ depending on their demography. Accurately simulating demography is therefore key in order to address questions on afforestation and management strategies, as well as assessments of resilience of forests to disturbances such as drought and fire or diversity changes after a disturbance. Ultimately, demography determines the overall forest biomass in natural forests and is a key arbiter of growth and mortality rates. DGVMs are now able to simulate size and age structure of the trees in forests. However, these models have so far not been benchmarked alongside each other. We evaluate 6 DGVMs (BiomeE, CABLE-POP, FATES, LPJ-GUESS, JULES-RED, ORCHIDEE) against observations on regrowth dynamics as well as natural forests at boreal, temperate and tropical sites. We examine whether the models capture observed regrowth dynamics after disturbance, well-known stand size structure and well-established processes such as self-thinning. We outline the planned route forward towards a standardised international benchmarking framework for demographic DGVMs.

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models↗
DOE OSTI2025

California annual grass phenology and allometry influence ecosystem dynamics and fire regime in a vegetation demography model

Grass-dominated ecosystems cover wide areas of the land surface yet have received far less attention from the Earth System Model (ESM) community. This limits model projections of ecosystem dynamics in response to global change and coupled vegetation–climate dynamics. We used the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a dynamic vegetation demography model, to determine ecosystem sensitivity to alternate, observed grass allometries and biophysical traits, and evaluated model performance in capturing California C 3 annual grasslands structure and fire regimes. Grass allometry, leaf physiology, plant phenology, and plant mortality all drove the seasonal variation in matter and energy exchange and fire dynamics in California annual grasslands. Allometry influenced grassland structure and function mainly through canopy architecture-mediated space and light competition instead of through carbon partitioning strategy. Regional variation in grassland annual burned area was driven by variation in ecosystem productivity. Our study advances the modeling of grassy ecosystems in ESMs by establishing the importance of grass allometry and plant phenology and mortality in driving C 3 annual grassland seasonal dynamics and fire regime. The calibrated annual grass allometry and biophysical traits presented can be applied in future studies to project climate–vegetation–fire feedbacks in annual grass-dominant ecosystems under global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Beyond Population and Environment: Household Life Cycle Demography and Land Use Allocation among Small Farm Colonists in the Amazon

Most research featuring demographic factors in environmental change has focused on processes operating at the level of national or global populations. This paper focuses on household-level demographic life cycles among colonists in the Amazon, and evaluates the impacts on land use allocation. The analysis goes beyond prior research by including a broader suite of demographic variables, and by simultaneously assessing their impacts on multiple land uses with different economic and ecological implications. We estimate a system of structural equations that accounts for endogeneity among land uses, and the findings indicate stronger demographic effects than previous work. These findings bear implications for modeling land use, and the place of demography in environmental research.

Perz, Stephen G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Global Biogeophysical Impact of Area and Mass Based Wood Harvest in a Vegetation Demography Model

Wood harvesting alters land surface properties and energy redistribution, but there is a lack of studies estimating these changes on a global scale. We coupled a vegetation demographic model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, with the E3SM land model to perform offline model simulation to investigate the land biogeophysical responses, including canopy coverage, leaf area index, albedo, surface roughness length, and energy fluxes, to historical wood harvest on the global scale. In this study, we found 50% less harvested carbon (C) when choosing the area-based harvest rate as driving data that has not been spatially harmonized, compared to reharmonized mass-based harvesting. By considering the uncertainty from reconstruction of historical wood harvest time series and the choice of wood harvest approach in the model, continuous wood harvest (1850–2015) results in 5%–10% of canopy coverage loss, contributing 0.5%–1% increase of albedo over disturbed land, which is much stronger than a non-demographic land surface model. Changes in energy flux from the wood harvest are negligible (<1%), but the responses of land surface properties vary (up to 30%) due to differences in model structure between the single canopy, sun-shade leaf model and vegetation demographic model.

Shu, Shijie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2023

On whole-genome demography of world’s ethnic groups and individual genomic identity

All current categorizations of human population, such as ethnicity, ancestry and race, are based on various selections and combinations of complex and dynamic common characteristics, that are mostly societal and cultural in nature, perceived by the members within or from outside of the categorized group. During the last decade, a massive amount of a new type of characteristics, that are exclusively genomic in nature, became available that allows us to analyze the inherited whole-genome demographics of extant human, especially in the fields such as human genetics, health sciences and medical practices (e.g., 1,2,3), where such health-related characteristics can be related to whole-genome-based categorization. Here we show the feasibility of deriving such whole-genome-based categorization. We observe that, within the available genomic data at present, (a) the study populations form about 14 genomic groups, each consisting of multiple ethnic groups; and (b), at an individual level, approximately 99.8%, on average, of the whole autosomal-genome contents are identical between any two individuals regardless of their genomic or ethnic groups.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Whole-genome demography of COVID-19 virus during its pandemic period and on “panvalent” vaccine design

With over 16 million submitted genomic sequences, the SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) virus, the cause of the most recent worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, has become the most sequenced genome of all known viruses, revealing, for example, a vast number of expanding viral lineages. Since the pandemic phase appears to be over, we performed a retrospective re-examination of the demographic grouping pattern and their genomic characteristics during the entire pandemic period up to the peak of the last pandemic wave. For our study, we extracted from the NCBI only unique viral sequences and converted each sequence data to a relational vector, indicating the presence/absence of each variational event compared to a “reference” sequence. Our study revealed several genomic features that are unexpected or different from those of previous studies. For example, approximately 44,000 variants with unique sequences emerged during the pandemic period; they group into only four major viral-genomic groups and each has a set of mostly unique highly-conserved variant-genotypes (HCVGs); and a small set from the first (“ancestral”) group was inherited by the three (“descendant”) groups, suggesting that HCVGs in the next group may be predictable from the current group(s). Such a concept may be potentially important in designing “panvalent” vaccines against the current and future waves of viral infections.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data from "A Bayesian Record Linkage Approach to Applications in Tree Demography Using Overlapping LiDAR Scans"

Processed LiDAR data and environmental covariates from 2015 and 2019 LiDAR scans in the Vicinity of Snodgrass Mountain (Western Colorado, USA), in a geographic subset used in primary analysis for the research paper.This package contains LiDAR-derived canopy height maps for 2015 and 2019, crown polygons derived from the height maps using a segmentation algorithm, and environmental covariates supporting the model of forest growth. Source datasets include August 2015 and August 2019 discrete-return LiDAR point clouds collected by Quantum Geospatial for terrain mapping purposes on behalf of the Colorado Hazard Mapping Program and the Colorado Water Conservation Board. Both datasets adhere to the USGS QL2 quality standard. The point cloud data were processed using the R package lidR to generate a canopy height model representing maximum vegetation height above the ground surface, using a pit-free algorithm.This dataset was compiled to assess how spatial patterns of tree growth in montane and subalpine forests are influenced by water and energy availability. Understanding these growth patterns can provide insight into forest dynamics in the Southern Rocky Mountains under changing climatic conditions.This dataset contains .tif, .csv, and .txt files. This dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

Remote sensing, land use, and demography - A look at people through their effects on the land

Relevant causes of failure by the remote sensing community in the urban scene are analyzed. The reasons for the insignificant role of remote sensing in urban land use data collection are called the law of realism, the incompatibility of remote sensing and urban management system data formats is termed the law of nominal/ordinal systems compatibility, and the land use/population correlation dilemma is referred to as the law of missing persons. The study summarizes the three laws of urban land use information for which violations, avoidance, or ignorance have caused the decline of present remote sensing research. Particular attention is given to the rationale for urban land use information and for remote sensing. It is shown that remote sensing of urban land uses compatible with the three laws can be effectively developed by realizing the 10 percent contribution of remote sensing to urban land use planning data collection.

Paul, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The demography of extraterrestrial civilizations

Studies carried out within the last ten years on the nature and distribution of extraterrestrial intelligent life are reviewed. Arguments for the absence of intelligent life in the Galaxy based on the assumption that at least some of these would have engaged in colonization and for the presence of colonies of extraterrestrials in some undiscovered location in the solar system are presented, and it is noted that both these views rest on the notion that interstellar travel can be achieved at high velocities in very large vehicles, which has been questioned. Alternative suggestions concerning interstellar exploration by automated probes and the possible extended time scale and motivation for galactic colonization are pointed out. Attention is then given to arguments for the extreme smallness of one of the factors in the Drake equation used to estimate the number of communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Galaxy, including the frequency of single stars, the likelihood that planets with the correct initial composition and conditions for life are at the proper distance from their stars, the probability of the formation of DNA and the origin of life, and the time for the evolution of intelligence. It is concluded that it seems likely that other civilizations exist in the Galaxy, although the number and distribution of such civilizations may only be determined by the detection of one or more examples.

Billingham, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

GIS, GPS, political history, and geo-demography of the Aramamisi Yanomamo expansion

This year a joint US-Venezuelan research project was initiated to locate, identify, and begin long term research on the ecology of the Siapa Basin and the cultural adaptations of Yanomamo communities to this habit, a poorly mapped region of southern Venezuela. During two separate field trips, representing over 500 hours of flying time, local informants were asked to guide a helicopter to villages and other areas of anthropological interest. The location of each place was established with a GPS instrument. Both the Trimble Navigation TransPak and Magellan Nav 1000 Pro were used on these trips. A brief summary of the results and preliminary comparisons of both instruments will be presented.

Chagnon, Napoleon A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
NASA NTRS2019

Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics

Although the existence of a large carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems is well-established, the drivers of this sink remain uncertain. It has been suggested that perturbations to forest demography caused by past land-use change, management, and natural disturbances may be causing a large component of current carbon uptake. Here we use a global compilation of forest age observations, combined with a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit modeling of forest regrowth, to partition the global forest carbon sink between old-growth and regrowth stands over the period 1981–2010. For 2001–2010 we find a carbon sink of 0.85 (0.66–0.96) Pg/year located in intact old-growth forest, primarily in the moist tropics and boreal Siberia, and 1.30 (1.03–1.96) Pg/year located in stands regrowing after past disturbance. Approaching half of the sink in regrowth stands would have occurred from demographic changes alone, in the absence of other environmental changes. These age-constrained results show consistency with those simulated using an ensemble of demographically-enabled terrestrial biosphere models following an independent reconstruction of historical land use and management. We estimate that forests will accumulate an additional 69 (44–131) Pg C in live biomass from changes in demography alone if natural disturbances, wood harvest, and reforestation continue at rates comparable to those during 1981–2010. Our results confirm that it is not possible to understand the current global terrestrial carbon sink without accounting for the sizeable sink due to forest demography. They also imply that a large portion of the current terrestrial carbon sink is strictly transient in nature.

forest↗
DOE OSTI2023

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

New giant planet beyond the snow line for an extended MOA exoplanet microlens sample

Characterizing a planet detected by microlensing is hard if the planetary signal is weak or the lens-source relative trajectory is far from caustics. However, statistical analyses of planet demography must include those planets to accurately determine occurrence rates. As part of a systematic modelling effort in the context of a >10-yr retrospective analysis of MOA’s survey observations to build an extended MOA statistical sample, we analyse the light curve of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2014-BLG-472. This event provides weak constraints on the physical parameters of the lens, as a result of a planetary anomaly occurring at low magnification in the light curve. We use a Bayesian analysis to estimate the properties of the planet, based on a refined Galactic model and the assumption that all Milky Way’s stars have an equal planet-hosting probability. We find that a lens consisting of a 1.9(+2.2,−1.2)M(J) giant planet orbiting a 0.31(+0.36,−0.19)Mꙩ host at a projected separation of 0.75±0.24au is consistent with the observations and is most likely, based on the Galactic priors. The lens most probably lies in the Galactic bulge, at 7.2(+0.6,−1.7)kpc from Earth. The accurate measurement of the measured planet-to-host star mass ratio will be included in the next statistical analysis of cold planet demography detected by microlensing.

Clément Ranc↗