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Mathematical modeling of plus-strand RNA virus replication to identify broad-spectrum antiviral treatment strategies

Plus-strand RNA viruses are the largest group of viruses. Many are human pathogens that inflict a socio-economic burden. Interestingly, plus-strand RNA viruses share remarkable similarities in their replication. A hallmark of plus-strand RNA viruses is the remodeling of intracellular membranes to establish replication organelles (so-called “replication factories”), which provide a protected environment for the replicase complex, consisting of the viral genome and proteins necessary for viral RNA synthesis. In the current study, we investigate pan-viral similarities and virus-specific differences in the life cycle of this highly relevant group of viruses. We first measured the kinetics of viral RNA, viral protein, and infectious virus particle production of hepatitis C virus (HCV), dengue virus (DENV), and coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) in the immuno-compromised Huh7 cell line and thus without perturbations by an intrinsic immune response. Based on these measurements, we developed a detailed mathematical model of the replication of HCV, DENV, and CVB3 and showed that only small virus-specific changes in the model were necessary to describe the in vitro dynamics of the different viruses. Our model correctly predicted virus-specific mechanisms such as host cell translation shut off and different kinetics of replication organelles. Further, our model suggests that the ability to suppress or shut down host cell mRNA translation may be a key factor for in vitro replication efficiency, which may determine acute self-limited or chronic infection. We further analyzed potential broad-spectrum antiviral treatment options in silico and found that targeting viral RNA translation, such as polyprotein cleavage and viral RNA synthesis, may be the most promising drug targets for all plus-strand RNA viruses. Moreover, we found that targeting only the formation of replicase complexes did not stop the in vitro viral replication early in infection, while inhibiting intracellular trafficking processes may even lead to amplified viral growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Dengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that assuming all reported cases are secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than assuming all cases are primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00008 (95% CrI: 0.00002–0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CrI: 0.044–0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010–2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%–0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%–69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Zika-specific neutralizing antibodies targeting inter-dimer envelope epitopes

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging pathogen that causes devastating congenital defects. The overlapping epidemiology and immunologic cross-reactivity between ZIKV and dengue virus (DENV) pose complex challenges to vaccine design, given the potential for antibody-dependent enhancement of disease. Therefore, classification of ZIKV-specific antibody targets is of notable value. From a ZIKV-infected rhesus macaque, we identify ZIKV-reactive B cells and isolate potent neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with no cross-reactivity to DENV. We group these mAbs into four distinct antigenic groups targeting ZIKV-specific cross-protomer epitopes on the envelope glycoprotein. Co-crystal structures of representative mAbs in complex with ZIKV envelope glycoprotein reveal envelope-dimer epitope and unique dimer-dimer epitope targeting. All four specificities are serologically identified in convalescent humans following ZIKV infection, and representative mAbs from all four groups protect against ZIKV replication in mice. These results provide key insights into ZIKV-specific antigenicity and have implications for ZIKV vaccine, diagnostic, and therapeutic development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High-resolution RNA tertiary structures in Zika virus stem-loop A for the development of inhibitory small molecules

Flaviviruses such as Zika (ZIKV) and dengue virus (DENV) are positive-sense RNA viruses belonging to Flaviviridae. The flavivirus genome contains a 5’ end stem-loop promoter sequence known as stem-loop A (SLA) that is recognized by the flavivirus polymerase NS5 during viral RNA synthesis and 5’ guanosine cap methylation. The crystal structures of ZIKV and DENV SLAs show a well-defined fold, consisting of a bottom stem, side loop, and top stem-loop, providing unique interaction sites for small-molecule inhibitors to disrupt the promoter function. To facilitate identification of small molecule binding sites in flavivirus SLA, we determined high-resolution structures of bottom and top stems of ZIKV SLA, which contain a single U- or G-bulge, respectively. Both bulge nucleotides exhibit multiple orientations, from folded back on the adjacent nucleotide to flipped out of the helix, and are stabilized by stacking or base triple interactions. These structures suggest that even a single unpaired nucleotide can provide flexibility to RNA structures and its conformation is mainly determined by the stabilizing chemical environment. To facilitate discovery of small molecule inhibitors that interfere with the functions of ZIKV SLA, we screened and identified compounds that bind to the bottom and top stems of ZIKV SLA.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Mechanism of glycoform specificity and in vivo protection by an anti-afucosylated IgG nanobody

Abstract Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies contain a complex N -glycan embedded in the hydrophobic pocket between its heavy chain protomers. This glycan contributes to the structural organization of the Fc domain and determines its specificity for Fcγ receptors, thereby dictating distinct cellular responses. The variable construction of this glycan structure leads to highly-related, but non-equivalent glycoproteins known as glycoforms. We previously reported synthetic nanobodies that distinguish IgG glycoforms. Here, we present the structure of one such nanobody, X0, in complex with the Fc fragment of afucosylated IgG1. Upon binding, the elongated CDR3 loop of X0 undergoes a conformational shift to access the buried N -glycan and acts as a ‘glycan sensor’, forming hydrogen bonds with the afucosylated IgG N -glycan that would otherwise be sterically hindered by the presence of a core fucose residue. Based on this structure, we designed X0 fusion constructs that disrupt pathogenic afucosylated IgG1-FcγRIIIa interactions and rescue mice in a model of dengue virus infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

w Mel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change

Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel’s thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont’s thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗