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We show that Bayesian model selection is equivalent to optimization of a suitably defined free energy. The entropy term in the free energy is defined over the space of possible model selections and model parameters for a given model. Bayesian model selection thus follows a minimum description length principle.
Many astrophysical phenomena are time-varying, in the sense that their intensity, energy spectrum, and/or the spatial distribution of the emission suddenly change. This paper develops a method for modeling a time series of images. Under the assumption that the arrival times of the photons follow a Poisson process, the data are binned into 4D grids of voxels (time, energy band, and x-y coordinates), and viewed as a time series of non-homogeneous Poisson images. The method assumes that at each time point, the corresponding multiband image stack is an unknown 3D piecewise constant function including Poisson noise. It also assumes that all image stacks between any two adjacent change points (in time domain) share the same unknown piecewise constant function. The proposed method is designed to estimate the number and the locations of all of the change points (in time domain), as well as all of the unknown piecewise constant functions between any pairs of the change points. The method applies the minimum description length principle to perform this task. A practical algorithm is also developed to solve the corresponding complicated optimization problem. Simulation experiments and applications to real data sets show that the proposed method enjoys very promising empirical properties. Applications to two real data sets, the XMM observation of a flaring star and an emerging solar coronal loop, illustrate the usage of the proposed method and the scientific insight gained from it.
This work examines how we may cast machine learning within a complete Bayesian framework to quantify and suppress explanatory complexity from first principles. Our investigation into both the philosophy and mathematics of rational belief leads us to emphasize the critical role of Bayesian inference in learning well-justified predictions within a rigorous and complete extended logic. The Bayesian framework allows us to coherently account for evidence in the learned plausibility of potential explanations. As an extended logic, the Bayesian paradigm regards probability as a notion of degrees of truth. In order to satisfy critical properties of probability as a coherent measure, as well as maintain consistency with binary propositional logic, we arrive at Bayes' Theorem as the only justifiable mechanism to update our beliefs to account for empiracle evidence. Yet, in the machine learning paradigm, where explanations are unconstrained algorithmic abstractions, we arrive at a critical challenge: Bayesian inference requires prior belief. Conventional approaches fail to yield a consistent framework in which we could compare prior plausibility among the infinities of potential choices in learning architectures. The difficulty of articulating well-justified prior belief over abstract models is the provinence of memorization in traditional machine learning training practices. This becomes exceptionally problematic in the context of limited datasets, when we wish to learn justifiable predictions from only a small amount of data.
Inspired by the recent considerations of parton momentum broadening in the glasma phase, we study the medium-induced soft gluon radiation of jet partons at early times in heavy-ion collisions. The glasma state is assumed to be comprised of independent color domains with homogenous longitudinal fields that vary event by event, and we further complete this model with an event-averaging procedure accounting for the finite correlation length. Using this description, we evaluate the rate of medium-induced radiation from an energetic parton at midrapidity in the glasma phase. We mainly focus on SU(2) color fields for simplicity, also referring to the U(1) case and comparing with the Baier, Dokshitzer, Mueller, Peigné, Schiff, and Zakharov rate to gain further insight. Our results show that there is an intricate interplay of the synchrotron-like radiation in a single color domain with the destructive interference between different color domains, after the medium averaging is performed. Thus, we find that the emission rate is sensitive to the matter structure, decreasing for a glasma state populated by smaller color domains—i.e., for a glasma with a larger characteristic saturation scale. Our approach can be applied to more realistic backgrounds, and it sets the stage for the modeling of jet evolution in the early stages of heavy-ion collisions.
We report the first fully kinetic, quantum study of kinetic electrostatic electron nonlinear (KEEN) waves, showing that quantum diffraction systematically erodes the classical trapping mechanism, narrows harmonic locking to the fundamental, and hastens post-drive decay. Electrons are evolved with a second-order Strang-split 1D1V Wigner–Poisson solver that couples conservative semi-Lagrangian WENO advection to an analytic Fourier space update for the non-local Wigner term, while ions remain classical. We focus on collisionless dynamics in a weakly coupled regime, providing a controlled baseline before collisional extensions. Short, frequency-tuned ponderomotive pulses drive KEEN formation in a uniform Maxwellian plasma; as the dimensionless quantum parameter H rises from the classical limit to values relevant to warm-dense matter, doped semiconductors, and 2D electron systems, the drive threshold increases, higher harmonics are damped, trapped electron vortices diffuse, and the subplasma electrostatic energy relaxes to a lower stationary level, as confirmed by continuous wavelet analysis. These microscopic changes carry macroscopic weight. Ignition-scale capsules now compress matter to regimes where the electron de Broglie wavelength rivals the Debye length, making classical kinetic descriptions insufficient. By extending KEEN physics into this quantum domain, our results offer a potential diagnostic of non-equilibrium electron dynamics for next-generation inertial-confinement designs and high-energy-density platforms, indicating that predictive fusion modeling may benefit from the integration of kinetic fidelity with quantum effects.
Mortality prediction for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is crucial for improving outcomes and efficient utilization of resources. Accessibility of electronic health records (EHR) has enabled data-driven predictive modeling using machine learning. However, very few studies rely solely on unstructured clinical notes from the EHR for mortality prediction. In this work, we propose a framework to predict short, mid, and long-term mortality in adult ICU patients using unstructured clinical notes from the MIMIC III database, natural language processing (NLP), and machine learning (ML) models. Depending on the statistical description of the patients’ length of stay, we define the short-term as 48-hour and 4-day period, the mid-term as 7-day and 10-day period, and the long-term as 15-day and 30-day period after admission. We found that by only using clinical notes within the 24 hours of admission, our framework can achieve a high area under the receiver operating characteristics (AU-ROC) score for short, mid and long-term mortality prediction tasks. The test AU-ROC scores are 0.87, 0.83, 0.83, 0.82, 0.82, and 0.82 for 48-hour, 4-day, 7-day, 10-day, 15-day, and 30-day period mortality prediction, respectively. We also provide a comparative study among three types of feature extraction techniques from NLP: frequency-based technique, fixed embedding-based technique, and dynamic embedding-based technique. Lastly, we provide an interpretation of the NLP-based predictive models using feature-importance scores.
Multipole moments such as charge, dipole, and quadrupole are often invoked to rationalize intermolecular phenomena, but a low-order multipole expansion is rarely a valid description of electrostatics at the length scales that characterize nonbonded interactions. This is illustrated by examining several common misunderstandings rooted in erroneous electrostatic arguments. First, the notion that steric repulsion originates in Coulomb interactions is easily disproved by dissecting the interaction potential for Ar2. Second, the Hunter-Sanders model of π–π interactions, which is based on quadrupolar electrostatics, is shown to have no basis in accurate calculations. Third, curved “buckybowls” exhibit unusually large dipole moments, but these are ancillary to the forces that control their intermolecular interactions, as illustrated by two examples involving corannulene. Finally, the assumption that interactions between water and small anions are dictated by the dipole moment of H 2 O is shown to be false in the case of binary halide–water complexes. Furthermore, these examples present a compelling case that electrostatic explanations based on low-order multipole moments are very often counterfactual for nonbonded interactions at close range and should not be taken seriously in the absence of additional justification.
We outline a fundamentally quantum description of bosonic dark matter (DM) from which the conventional classical-wave picture emerges in the limit 𝑚 ≪10 eV. As appropriate for a quantum system, we start from the density matrix, which encodes the full information regarding the possible measurements we could make of DM and their fluctuations. Following fundamental results in quantum optics, we argue that for DM it is most likely that the density matrix takes the explicitly mixed form of a Gaussian over the basis of coherent states. Deviations from this would generate non-Gaussian fluctuations in DM observables, allowing a direct probe of the quantum state of DM. Our quantum optics–inspired approach allows us to rigorously define and interpret various quantities that are often only described heuristically, such as the coherence time or length. The formalism further provides a continuous description of DM through the wave-particle transition, which we exploit to study how density fluctuations over various physical scales evolve between the two limits and to reveal the unique behavior of DM near the boundary of the wave and particle descriptions.
Open-shell π-conjugated systems have emerged as promising molecular wires that can sustain unusually high low-bias conductance over tens of nanometers. However, predictive design rules remain limited because near-degeneracy and spin polarization give rise to correlated electronic states that are not reliably captured by standard density functional theory and Landauer transport descriptions. Here, we establish physically transparent design rules for long-range, weakly length-dependent charge transport based on the interplay between bond-length alternation and electron–electron interactions. Using a fully correlated transport framework that combines density matrix renormalization group calculations with nonequilibrium Green’s function embedding, we show that weak dimerization maintains spatially extended edge states, while moderate on-site interaction stabilizes open-shell character without excessively separating transport-relevant resonances. This balance yields zero-bias transmission that is largely insensitive to molecular length, providing a route to connect chemically tunable structure to correlated transport beyond mean-field descriptions.
Normal and Pressure-shear plate impact (NPI and PSPI) experiments are popular experimental techniques for studying the mean-field macroscopic behavior of polycrystalline metals under high-rate dynamic loading. However, since both configurations rely upon geometry for subjecting the specimen to high strain rates, these experiments often involve a limited specimen size. Moreover, because of the inherent heterogeneities present within polycrystalline metals, it is difficult to ascertain if the size of the specimen and/or regions where measurements are made are sufficiently large for making representative inferences about the mean-field macroscopic properties from single-point velocity measurements. In the present study, we quantify the expected measurement variability on observable point measurements in NPI and PSPI experiments by carrying out direct numerical simulations (DNS) of statistically representative polycrystalline microstructures subjected to dynamic compression and compression-shear loading. In particular, we consider the role of specific material heterogeneities (e.g. the grain-to-grain difference in size, crystallographic orientation) on dispersion in the normal and transverse particle velocity records and on local fluctuations in key state variables (e.g. velocity, accumulated plastic strain) by incorporating these effects directly into a representative synthetic microstructure geometry and crystalline description of pure polycrystalline aluminum. The form of the present study is a large parametric investigation, consisting of ten ensembles of one hundred simulations. Each of the thousand simulations reflects a randomly realized synthetic microstructure in one of five cases of decreasing average grain size for the two loading configurations. Our analysis of the DNS results demonstrates that for both of these experimental configurations, the grain size directly correlates with the coefficient of variation (CV) in simulated point measurements, showing a convergent decrease in CV to zero (i.e. particle velocity record approaches the mean-field value) with decreasing grain size. Remarkably, the magnitude of variations in the particle velocity record is shown to be largest where the deviatoric stresses are most significant. In the case of NPI, this occurs at the elastic and plastic wavefront, whereas, in the case of PSPI, the magnitude of fluctuations are approximately constant throughout the experimental window time. The reasoning for the scatter in particle velocity due to the heterogeneous microstructure is demonstrated to be dependent on the mechanisms for accommodating deformation and on the interaction of reflection waves generated at sites of heterogeneities occurring at the scale of grains. Lastly, we develop a power-law description for the magnitude of scattering versus characteristic length, which provides a statistical framework for assessing the required number of grains per characteristic specimen dimension for minimizing scatter within these two experimental configurations (NPI, PSPI).
Kolmogorov's theory of turbulence assumes that the small-scale turbulent structures in the energy cascade are universal and are determined by the energy dissipation rate and the kinematic viscosity alone. However, thermal fluctuations, absent from the continuum description, terminate the energy cascade near the Kolmogorov length scale. Here, we propose a simple superposition model to account for the effects of thermal fluctuations on small-scale turbulence statistics. Furthermore, for compressible Taylor–Green vortex flow, we demonstrate that the superposition model in conjunction with data from direct numerical simulation of the Navier–Stokes equations yields spectra and structure functions that agree with the corresponding quantities computed from the direct simulation Monte Carlo method of molecular gas dynamics, verifying the importance of thermal fluctuations in the dissipation range.
We present a macroscale constitutive model that couples magnetism with thermal, elastic, plastic, and damage effects in an Internal State Variable (ISV) theory. Previous constitutive models did not include an interdependence between the internal magnetic (magnetostriction and magnetic flux) and mechanical fields. Although constitutive models explaining the mechanisms behind mechanical deformations caused by magnetization changes have been presented in the literature, they mainly focus on nanoscale structure–property relations. A fully coupled multiphysics macroscale ISV model presented herein admits lower length scale information from the nanoscale and microscale descriptions of the multiphysics behavior, thus capturing the effects of magnetic field forces with isotropic and anisotropic magnetization terms and moments under thermomechanical deformations. For the first time, this ISV modeling framework internally coheres to the kinematic, thermodynamic, and kinetic relationships of deformation using the evolving ISV histories. For the kinematics, a multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient is employed including a magnetization term; hence, the Jacobian represents the conservation of mass and conservation of momentum including magnetism. The first and second laws of thermodynamics are used to constrain the appropriate constitutive relations through the Clausius–Duhem inequality. The kinetic framework employs a stress–strain relationship with a flow rule that couples the thermal, mechanical, and magnetic terms. Experimental data from the literature for three different materials (iron, nickel, and cobalt) are used to compare with the model’s results showing good correlations.
We present a macroscale constitutive model that couples magnetism with thermal, elastic, plastic, and damage effects in an Internal State Variable (ISV) theory. Previous constitutive models did not include an interdependence between the internal magnetic (magnetostriction and magnetic flux) and mechanical fields. Although constitutive models explaining the mechanisms behind mechanical deformations caused by magnetization changes have been presented in the literature, they mainly focus on nanoscale structure–property relations. A fully coupled multiphysics macroscale ISV model presented herein admits lower length scale information from the nanoscale and microscale descriptions of the multiphysics behavior, thus capturing the effects of magnetic field forces with isotropic and anisotropic magnetization terms and moments under thermomechanical deformations. For the first time, this ISV modeling framework internally coheres to the kinematic, thermodynamic, and kinetic relationships of deformation using the evolving ISV histories. For the kinematics, a multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient is employed including a magnetization term; hence, the Jacobian represents the conservation of mass and conservation of momentum including magnetism. The first and second laws of thermodynamics are used to constrain the appropriate constitutive relations through the Clausius–Duhem inequality. The kinetic framework employs a stress–strain relationship with a flow rule that couples the thermal, mechanical, and magnetic terms. Experimental data from the literature for three different materials (iron, nickel, and cobalt) are used to compare with the model’s results showing good correlations.
A classical nova is a thermonuclear runaway initiated on a white dwarf accreting solar-like material from its stellar companion. Once the white dwarf accretes enough mass, the pressure at the base of the accreted layer reaches a critical point, leading to the ignition of the hydrogen fuel at their interface. This paper presents a set of two-dimensional CO classical nova simulations with an extended buffer zone of a fixed low density and temperature between the top of the accreted layer and the upper boundary, allowing us to capture the thermonuclear outburst in the domain. Our domain reduces the role of the upper-outflow boundary condition that has affected previous simulations and allows us to explore the nucleosynthesis evolution in detail. We also study the effects of the initial temperature perturbation and buffer size to explore their sensitivity in our simulations. Finally, we start our simulations with a lower temperature at the base of the accreted layer ( 7 × 10 7 K ) than previous work, allowing us to capture mixing earlier in the evolution, reducing the effects of the mixing-length-theory assumptions. This allows for a more realistic description of convective transport in our models.
We perform a novel test of General Relativity by measuring the gravitational constant in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The LMC contains six well-studied Cepheid variable stars in detached eclipsing binaries. Radial velocity and photometric observations enable a complete orbital solution, and precise measurements of the Cepheids’ periods permit detailed stellar modelling. Both are sensitive to the strength of gravity, the former via Kepler’s third law and the latter through the gravitational free-fall time. We jointly fit the observables for stellar parameters and the gravitational constant. Performing a full Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the parameter space including all relevant nuisance parameters, we constrain the gravitational constant in the Large Magellanic Cloud relative to the Solar System to be G LMC /G SS = $0.93{^{+0.05}_{-0.04}}$. We discuss the implications of this 5% measurement of Newton’s constant in another galaxy for dark energy and modified gravity theories. This result excludes one Cepheid, CEP-1812, which is an outlier and needs further study: it is either a highly unusual system to which our model does not apply, or it prefers G LMC < G SS at 2.6σ. We also obtain new bounds on critical parameters that appear in semi-analytic descriptions of stellar processes. In particular, we measure the mixing length parameter to be $α = 0.90{^{+0.36}_{-0.26}}$ (when assumed to be constant across our sample), and obtain constraints on the parameters describing turbulent dissipation and convective flux.
Proper statistical mechanics understanding of nanoparticle solvation processes requires an accurate description of the molecular structure of the solvent. Achieving this goal with standard molecular dynamics (MD) simulation methods is challenging due to large length scales. An alternative approach to this problem can be formulated using classical density functional theory (cDFT), where a full configurational description of the positions of all the atoms is replaced by collective atomic site densities in the molecule. Using an example of the negatively charged silica-like system in an aqueous polar environment represented by a two-site water model, we demonstrate here that cDFT can reproduce MD data at a fraction of the computational cost. An important implication of this result is the ability to understand how the solvent molecular features may affect the system’s properties at the macroscopic scale. A concrete example highlighted in this work is the analysis of nanoparticle interactions with sizes of up to 100 nm in diameter.
The dataset comprises Soil Temperature and Deformation monitoring data gathered from a watershed situated along the Nome-Teller road at Mile 47 in Alaska. Its primary objective is to enhance comprehension of deformation mechanisms in permafrost environments by using 51 probes designed following Wielandt et al. (2022). The dataset comprises a description of Probe_ID, Location, start time, end time and probe length in the "ProbesLocations_StartEndDates.csv" file, the 51 data files encapsulated within "Data_files.zip" and the computed deformation for 2023 and 2022 in "Deformation_T47.zip".Each file in Data_files.zip is named as followed "ProbeId_StartMonth_EndMonth.csv". Within each file, the initial column denotes the timestamp in UTC, followed by the sensor’s battery voltage and temperature and acceleration values (X, Y, Z) in subsequent columns. The data collection frequency is set at 30-minute intervals. Each file in Deformation_T47.zip is named as followed "ProbeId_Temp_def_year.csv". Within each file, the initial column denotes the timestamp in UTC, followed by the temperature at each sensor and cumulative deformation from last to first sensor in subsequent columns. The data collection is daily averaged.This dataset forms an integral component of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
Hydrodynamics provides a continuum-level description of fluid motion, but its applicability at the nanoscale becomes uncertain due to the emerging importance of molecular-level effects such as spatial heterogeneity. Hydrodynamic boundary conditions that incorporate molecular details allow us to partition the system into a near-wall region and a bulk fluid region. We identify a hydrodynamic wall located inside the fluid that determines where slip begins. By extending the hydrodynamic wall with the slip length, the position of the extrapolated wall is established. This offers a unified description of both slip and stagnant flow behaviors, with wall hydrophobicity characterized by the relative location of the extrapolated wall with respect to the physical wall. Employing this concept in analyses of equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) and non-equilibrium MD simulations of Couette and Poiseuille flows, our results demonstrate consistency between equilibrium and non-equilibrium approaches across different flow types and confinement levels. This demonstrates the robust nature of linear response theory. We then explore the effects of fluid-wall and bulk fluid interactions on the hydrodynamic properties. These findings enhance the effectiveness of molecular-based simulations for investigating complex confined systems in nanofluidics, biology, and colloidal science, offering a complementary molecular-scale perspective to traditional continuum approaches.