Weather Forecasting Limitations in the Developing World
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Lofstead, Gerald Fredrick↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “developing world”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds
Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.
+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗
Industry Scan of Non-SF6 Gas-Insulated Technologies
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF 6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF 6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF 6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. Since SF 6 recognition as a significant contributor to climate change, most governments and organizations have sought ways to reduce or eliminate their use of this gas. Many utilities have initiated leak monitoring and repair programs which have significantly reduced emissions of this gas into the atmosphere. While leak reduction programs have been effective at reducing emission rates in the developed world, leak rates remain frozen at ~1% annually. However, one of the largest and fastest growing markets for this gas is in the developing world where emissions standards are often lacking (P&S Intelligence. 2023). To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF 6 , alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF 6 , at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. This report was commissioned by the United States Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under the Transformer Resilience and Advanced Components (TRAC) program to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF 6 -free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption. While this report is tailored to the United States, the findings should be relevant to all stakeholders seeking to reduce SF 6 emissions.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Attempting to Develop the World’s Most Cost-Effective Metal 3D Printing Technology Through Industrial Adoption of a High-Temperature Electro-Magnetic Nozzle for 3D Printing and Computer Numerical Control Integration
This project aimed to make a practical system capable of sustained metal deposition in air engineered with industrial integration and controls. The Al-Ce wire feedstock was tailored with appropriate deposition and solidification properties for direct reactive interface printing (DRIP), and the goal was to integrate onto a Hybrid Manufacturing Technologies system for producing test parts without a controlled environment.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Attempting to Develop the World’s Most Cost-Effective Metal 3D Printing Technology Through Industrial Adoption of a High-Temperature Electro-Magnetic Nozzle for 3D Printing and Computer Numerical Control Integration
This project aimed to make a practical system capable of sustained metal deposition in air engineered with industrial integration and controls. The Al-Ce wire feedstock was tailored with appropriate deposition and solidification properties for direct reactive interface printing (DRIP), and the goal was to integrate onto a Hybrid Manufacturing Technologies system for producing test parts without a controlled environment.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Measurement of free chlorine levels in water using potentiometric responses of biofilms and applications for monitoring and managing the quality of potable water
We report residual free chlorine is not monitored continuously at scale in drinking water distribution systems because existing real-time sensor technologies require frequent maintenance, cleaning, and calibration, which makes these products too costly to be used throughout a distribution system. As a result, current measurement approaches require manual sampling, which is not feasible for the consistent monitoring of free chlorine because chlorine concentrations vary significantly throughout pipeline distribution and over time and space. This research presents an alternative and cost-effective method of predicting free chlorine levels in drinking water using graphite electrodes coated with naturally grown microbial biofilms. This Microbial Potentiometric Sensor (MPS) array was installed in a Continuously Mixed Batch Reactor (CMBR), and drinking water containing variable free chlorine concentrations. The chlorine concentrations were introduced in a controlled manner, and the MPS signals were monitored over time. MPS signals were measured from the change in Open Circuit Potential (OCP) across the MPS array in real-time. An empirically derived relationship between the normalized change in OCP and free chlorine was established by fitting individual and average MPS data to a decaying exponential growth function in order to predict free chlorine levels. The results show that free chlorine can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, with model validation showing an average absolute error of ±0.09 ppm below 1.1 ppm and ±0.30 ppm between 1.1 and 2.7 ppm. However, the accuracy of predictions was reduced at higher free chlorine levels. The researchers conclude that MPS systems may benefit drinking water distribution systems by measuring free chlorine. These advantages of the MPS are especially pronounced in the developing world because this system is inexpensive and does not require routine maintenance or cleaning. The system relies on a naturally forming and regenerating biofilm and an inexpensive potentiometric meter to produce stable measurements.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global Overview of Energy Storage Performance Test Protocols
As part of the World Bank Energy Storage Partnership, this document seeks to provide support and knowledge to a set of stakeholders across the developing world as we all seek to analyze the emerging opportunities and technologies for energy storage in the electric sector. As global prices for renewable energy have dropped dramatically over the last decade and continue to decline and the value of energy storage has increased in many systems, the World Bank technical teams and others have been hearing of a variety of problems. Related, developing countries have been asking a series of questions in this new area. This working group seeks to address the issues raised in part by creating this document and working to gather a variety of experts in this area from across the globe in support of the World Bank efforts. Performance testing, in combination with test beds (Working Group 2), is critical to fulfill the promise offered by these breakthrough technologies and critical to increasing trust in these systems and reducing risk. This document seeks to provide information to stakeholders in developing countries on the current global performance testing landscape of the battery (and broader) performance testing landscape. This document does that by summarizing testing protocols published by key global entities. From this summary, it can be concluded that there are several organizations within each region that set protocols for the testing and specifications of stationary energy storage systems. Across most of these entities, there are extensive protocols for testing batteries for electrical vehicles and mobile devices, but less for large scale energy storage system and their usage cases. The working group and the Partnership more generally agree that the nascent markets for certain technologies and rapid growth make testing more important than ever as these markets continue to mature. This document also seeks to provide a set of "guideposts" to new entrants by pointing out some of the key organizations globally that are currently engaged in performance testing of energy storage systems (often batteries but the larger organizations are likely to engage in tailored tests for emerging thermal and other storage technologies).
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Sustainable production of ammonia fertilizers from biomass
Nitrogen is the most limiting plant nutrient. Inexpensive natural gas has substantially reduced costs of ammonia fertilizer for intensive agriculture in the developed world, but its excessive use negatively impacts downstream ecosystems. By contrast, the availability of ammonia fertilizer is a major economic bottleneck for agriculture in developing countries. A dedicated lignocellulosic biomass crop could supply sufficient substrate to generate optimal nitrogen fertilizer on less than 5% of a grower’s food crop acreage. However, reimagining ammonia generation using biomass could significantly enhance sustainable agricultural productivity in developing countries when combined with emerging catalytic technologies.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
The USAID-NREL Partnership
The United States Agency for International Development is drawing on U.S. Department of Energy national laboratory expertise to advance clean, resilient, and equitable energy systems in the developing world through the USAID-NREL Partnership.
advanced power systems↗
Imitating the “breeder's eye”: Predicting grain yield from measurements of non‐yield traits
Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Chemical Feedback in the Self-Assembly and Function of Air–Liquid Interfaces: Insight into the Bottlenecks of CO 2 Direct Air Capture
As fossil fuels remain a major source of energy throughout the world, developing efficient negative emission technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC), which remove carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air, becomes critical for mitigating climate change. Although all DAC processes involve CO 2 transport from air into a sorbent/solvent, through an air–solid or air–liquid interface, the fundamental roles the interfaces play in DAC remain poorly understood. In this work, we study the interfacial behavior of amino acid (AA) solvents used in DAC through a combination of vibrational sum frequency generation spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations. This study revealed that the absorption of atmospheric CO 2 has antagonistic effects on subsequent capture events that are driven by changes in bulk pH and specific ion effects that feedback on surface organization and interactions. Among the three AAs (leucine, valine, and phenylalanine) studied, we identify and separate behaviors from CO 2 loading, chemical changes, variations in pH, and specific ion effects that tune structural and chemical degrees of freedom at the air–aqueous interface. The fundamental mechanistic findings described here are anticipated to enable new approaches to DAC based on exploiting interfaces as a tool to address climate change.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Development of spirulina for the manufacture and oral delivery of protein therapeutics
The use of the edible photosynthetic cyanobacterium Arthrospira platensis (spirulina) as a biomanufacturing platform has been limited by a lack of genetic tools. Here we report genetic engineering methods for stable, high-level expression of bioactive proteins in spirulina, including large-scale, indoor cultivation and downstream processing methods. Following targeted integration of exogenous genes into the spirulina chromosome (chr), encoded protein biopharmaceuticals can represent as much as 15% of total biomass, require no purification before oral delivery and are stable without refrigeration and protected during gastric transit when encapsulated within dry spirulina. Oral delivery of a spirulina-expressed antibody targeting campylobacter—a major cause of infant mortality in the developing world—prevents disease in mice, and a phase 1 clinical trial demonstrated safety for human administration. Spirulina provides an advantageous system for the manufacture of orally delivered therapeutic proteins by combining the safety of a food-based production host with the accessible genetic manipulation and high productivity of microbial platforms.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Relationship of estrogen synthesis capacity in the brain with obesity and self-control in men and women
Significance Obesity is a major public health problem in a growing proportion of children and adults in the developed world. Estrogen influences body weight and behavioral responses to appetitive stimuli. Estrogen biosynthesis is catalyzed by the enzyme aromatase in all organs measured, including the brain. Using the aromatase radiotracer [ 11 C]vorozole, we measured aromatase availability in the amygdala in healthy-weight to obese adults. Obesity was associated with lower aromatase availability and less constraint independent of sex and age. Variability in brain estrogen synthesis may contribute to obesity by directly regulating feeding and broadly by affecting self-control. These findings suggest that brain aromatase imaging offers a method for characterizing the role of brain estrogen in obesity and other impairments in self-regulation.
Biegon, Anat↗
Geographic disparities of cardiovascular and cancer mortality in the USA: 1981–2019
Background: Cardiovascular and cancer mortality are the two leading causes of death in the developed world including the USA. However, mortality trends for these diseases are highly dynamic, and the geographic landscape is in transition. We analyze patterns of mortality improvement at county level during recent decades focusing on mortality decline and geographic diversity. Methods: We grouped age-adjusted mortality rates of cardiovascular and cancer diseases from CDC WONDER for 2959 US counties into 3-year time periods to improve reliability. We calculated percent mortality decrease between 1981–83 and 2016–19 for both causes to quantify mortality improvements for counties. Results: Using standard deviation as an index of disparities, place-based cancer mortalities were 68% larger than cardiovascular disparities. Significantly, 566 US counties had same or higher rates of cancer mortality in 2019 as in 1981. The geographic distribution of mortality improvement in either cause tends to favor largely populated areas along coasts. Less-populated, rural places in the interior and southeastern regions were experiencing less improvement. Conclusions: At the county level, large place-based disparities exist for both causes of death with the magnitude of disparities being substantially larger for the reduction in cancer deaths. Put differently, place matters, more for cancer than cardiovascular mortality.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Zinc against COVID-19? Symptom surveillance and deficiency risk groups
A wide variety of symptoms is associated with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, and these symptoms can overlap with other conditions and diseases. Knowing the distribution of symptoms across diseases and individuals can support clinical actions on timelines shorter than those for drug and vaccine development. Here, we focus on zinc deficiency symptoms, symptom overlap with other conditions, as well as zinc effects on immune health and mechanistic zinc deficiency risk groups. There are well-studied beneficial effects of zinc on the immune system including a decreased susceptibility to and improved clinical outcomes for infectious pathogens including multiple viruses. Zinc is also an anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidative stress agent, relevant to some severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms. Unfortunately, zinc deficiency is common worldwide and not exclusive to the developing world. Lifestyle choices and preexisting conditions alone can result in zinc deficiency, and we compile zinc risk groups based on a review of the literature. It is also important to distinguish chronic zinc deficiency from deficiency acquired upon viral infection and immune response and their different supplementation strategies. Zinc is being considered as prophylactic or adjunct therapy for COVID-19, with 12 clinical trials underway, highlighting the relevance of this trace element for global pandemics. Using the example of zinc, we show that there is a critical need for a deeper understanding of essential trace elements in human health, and the resulting deficiency symptoms and their overlap with other conditions. This knowledge will directly support human immune health for decreasing susceptibility, shortening illness duration, and preventing progression to severe cases in the current and future pandemics.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Request for the establishment of quantum information foundries
Quantum information science still requires basic science research to achieve its full potential. However, scientists require access to fabricated device samples if we are to utilize the full toolset for solving the pressing issues in the field such as materials, device layout, or optimal error correction methods.Currently, access to samples is either prohibitively expensive, or requires close collaboration with one of the few groups in the world developing these systems. A dedicated quantum foundry could,in principle,provide affordable samples designed with current best practices to a host of scientists who otherwise do not have access. We detail several different foundry models which we believe will assist the community in developing the science for both the underlying processes, as well as the more advanced chip layout and circuit design. Opening access to the broader community has the potential to significantly lower the barrier to entry and vastly improve the ability for researchers in fields ranging from condensed matter to materials characterization to systems engineering to contribute to accelerating the advance of quantum information science and technology.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Volume 4: Detection Systems and Ultra-Cold Neutrons
As part of the Sustaining and Enhancing Nuclear Science (SENSe) initiative at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the prospect of adding new detection systems to support High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) operations and to advance scientific research has prompted many ideas and discussions regarding potential features, configurations, locations, and applications. A working group of ORNL staff members was organized to further develop the concepts and recommending one or more configurations to best support future HFIR operations and scientific capacities and to provide order-of-magnitude cost estimates and timing. The areas of investigation included fast access detection systems, non-scattering beamline instruments, shielded detection instruments, and an ultracold neutron source. In each case, the focus was to develop world leading capabilities that would be unmatched by any other facility.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Progress in $Nb_3Sn$ SRF Technology: Opportunities and Outlook
Nb3Sn superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities can expand performance capabilities of particle accelerators for both the fundamental research and the industrial applications. The technology holds a great appeal especially to small-scale applications, where it can enable a turn-key compact cryocooler operation eliminating the need for complex sub-atmospheric liquid helium cryogenic plants. Since the research into Nb3Sn SRF coatings using vapor diffusion technique restarted in 2009 at Cornell University, there has been a growing number of SRF groups around the world developing this technology with a steady increase in cavity performance and system complexity. In this talk, after a short overview of SRF technology, I will present on some of the recent developments in Nb3Sn SRF cavities, focusing on recent efforts to complete the first-of-its-kind Nb3Sn 2-cavity CEBAF-type cryomodule, which was assembled and tested last year. The talk will conclude with a short overview on some of the ongoing projects and the future possibilities for Nb3Sn cavities in accelerator applications.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗