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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Ethical considerations in infectious disease modelling for public health policy: the case of school closures

Mathematical models of infectious diseases are frequently used as a tool to support public health policy and decisions around the implementation of interventions such as school closures. However, most publications on policy-relevant modelling lack an ethical framework and do not explicitly consider the ethical implications of the work. This creates a risk that the unintended consequences of interventions are overlooked or that models are used to justify decisions that are inconsistent with public health ethics. In this article, we focus on the case study of school closures as a commonly modelled intervention against pandemic influenza, COVID-19 and other infectious disease threats. We briefly review some of the key concepts in public health ethics and describe approaches to modelling the effects of school closures. We then identify a series of ethical considerations involved in modelling school closures. These include accounting for population heterogeneity and inequalities; including a diversity of viewpoints and expertise in model design; considering the distribution of benefits and harms; and model transparency and contextualization. Furthermore, we conclude with some recommendations to ensure that policy-relevant modelling is consistent with some key ethics values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disease modeling for Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB using patient derived induced pluripotent stem cells

Highlights: • Establishment of a patient-specific neuronal model for Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB using iPSCs. • Lysosomes enlarged and secondary lipid accumulated in Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB iPSC-derived neuronal cells. • Recombinant NAGLU, δ-tocopherol, and HPBCD reduced the disease phenotypes in MPS IIIB iPSC-derived neuronal cells. Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB (MPS IIIB) is a lysosomal disease caused by mutations in the NAGLU gene encoding α-N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAGLU) which degrades heparan sulfate in lysosomes. Deficiency in NAGLU results in lysosomal accumulation of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) and neurological symptoms. Currently, there is no effective treatment or cure for this disease. In this study, induced pluripotent stem cell lines were established from two MPS IIIB patient fibroblast lines and differentiated into neural stem cells and neurons. MPS IIIB neural stem cells exhibited NAGLU deficiency accompanied with GAG accumulation, as well as lysosomal enlargement and secondary lipid accumulation. Treatments with recombinant NAGLU, δ-tocopherol, and 2-hydroxypropyl-b-cyclodextrin significantly reduced the disease phenotypes in these cells. These results indicate the MPS IIIB neural stem cells and neurons have the disease relevant phenotype and can be used as a cell-based disease model system for evaluation of drug efficacy and compound screening for drug development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chromosome compartmentalization alterations in prostate cancer cell lines model disease progression

Prostate cancer aggressiveness and metastatic potential are influenced by gene expression and genomic aberrations, features that can be influenced by the 3D structure of chromosomes inside the nucleus. Using chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C), we conducted a systematic genome architecture comparison on a cohort of cell lines that model prostate cancer progression, from normal epithelium to bone metastasis. We describe spatial compartment identity (A-open versus B-closed) changes with progression in these cell lines and their relation to gene expression changes in both cell lines and patient samples. In particular, 48 gene clusters switch from the B to the A compartment, including androgen receptor, WNT5A, and CDK14. These switches are accompanied by changes in the structure, size, and boundaries of topologically associating domains (TADs). Further, compartment changes in chromosome 21 are exacerbated with progression and may explain, in part, the genesis of the TMPRSS2-ERG translocation. These results suggest that discrete 3D genome structure changes play a deleterious role in prostate cancer progression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The predictive skill of convolutional neural networks models for disease forecasting

In this paper we investigate the utility of one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) models in epidemiological forecasting. Deep learning models, in particular variants of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been studied for ILI (Influenza-Like Illness) forecasting, and have achieved a higher forecasting skill compared to conventional models such as ARIMA. In this study, we adapt two neural networks that employ one-dimensional temporal convolutional layers as a primary building block—temporal convolutional networks and simple neural attentive meta-learners—for epidemiological forecasting. We then test them with influenza data from the US collected over 2010-2019. We find that epidemiological forecasting with CNNs is feasible, and their forecasting skill is comparable to, and at times, superior to, plain RNNs. Thus CNNs and RNNs bring the power of nonlinear transformations to purely data-driven epidemiological models, a capability that heretofore has been limited to more elaborate mechanistic/compartmental disease models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Modeling Applications

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models for the purpose of forecasting and describing the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Incorporating these data can greatly stabilize a compartmental model fit on early observations, where slight perturbations in the data may lead to model fits that forecast wildly unrealistic peak infection. We introduce a new method for incorporating historic data on the value and time of peak incidence of hospitalization into the fit for a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model by formulating the relationship between an SIR model’s starting parameters and peak incidence as a system of two equations that can be solved computationally. We demonstrate how to calculate SIR parameter estimates – which describe disease dynamics such as transmission and recovery rates – using this method, and determine that there is a noticeable loss in accuracy whenever prevalence data is misspecified as incidence data. To exhibit the modeling potential, we update the Dirichlet-Beta State Space modeling framework to use hospital incidence data, as this framework was previously formulated to incorporate only data on total infections. This approach is assessed for practicality in terms of accuracy and speed of computation via simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Validation of a Mechanistic COVID-19 Model for Translational Quantitative Systems Pharmacology – A Proof-of-Concept Model Development for Remdesivir

With the ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there is an urgent need to accelerate the traditional drug development process. Many studies identified potential COVID-19 therapies based on promising nonclinical data. However, the poor translatability from nonclinical to clinical settings has led to failures of many of these drug candidates in the clinical phase. In this study, we propose a mechanism-based, quantitative framework to translate nonclinical findings to clinical outcome. Adopting a modularized approach, this framework includes an in silico disease model for COVID-19 (virus infection and human immune responses) and a pharmacological component for COVID-19 therapies. Here, the disease model was able to reproduce important longitudinal clinical data for patients with mild and severe COVID-19, including viral titer, key immunological cytokines, antibody responses, and time courses of lymphopenia. Using remdesivir as a proof-of-concept example of model development for the pharmacological component, we developed a pharmacological model that describes the conversion of intravenously administered remdesivir as a prodrug to its active metabolite nucleoside triphosphate through intracellular metabolism and connected it to the COVID-19 disease model. After being calibrated with the placebo arm data, our model was independently and quantitatively able to predict the primary endpoint (time to recovery) of the remdesivir clinical study, Adaptive Covid-19 Clinical Trial (ACTT). Our work demonstrates the possibility of quantitatively predicting clinical outcome based on nonclinical data and mechanistic understanding of the disease and provides a modularized framework to aid in candidate drug selection and clinical trial design for COVID-19 therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference

We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Humoral Responses to Nipah Virus Infection in the Syrian Hamster Model of Disease

Abstract Nipah virus (NiV) is a highly pathogenic paramyxovirus. The Syrian hamster model recapitulates key features of human NiV disease and is a critical tool for evaluating antivirals and vaccines. Here we describe longitudinal humoral immune responses in NiV-infected Syrian hamsters. Samples were obtained 1–28 days after infection and analyzed by ELISA, neutralization, and Fc-mediated effector function assays. NiV infection elicited robust antibody responses against the nucleoprotein and attachment glycoprotein. Levels of neutralizing antibodies were modest and only detectable in surviving animals. Fc-mediated effector functions were mostly observed in nucleoprotein-targeting antibodies. Antibody levels and activities positively correlated with challenge dose.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Circadian rhythmicity of amyloid‐beta‐related molecules is disrupted in the choroid plexus of a female Alzheimer's disease mouse model

Abstract The choroid plexus (CP) is part of the blood‐cerebrospinal fluid barrier (BCSFB) and was recently described as an important component of the circadian clock system. It is the principal source of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and responsible for the synthesis and secretion of various neuroprotective peptides including those involved in amyloid‐β (Aβ) transport/degradation, contributing to Aβ homeostasis. Inadequate Aβ metabolic clearance and transport across the BCSFB have been associated with circadian dysfunctions in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. To investigate whether AD pathology influences Aβ scavengers circadian expression, we collected CP at different time points from an AD mouse model (APP/PS1) (female and male animals, aged 6‐ and 12‐months‐old) and analyzed their mRNA expression by Real‐time RT‐PCR. Only angiotensin‐converting enzyme (Ace) expression in 6‐month‐old female wild‐type mice and transthyretin (Ttr) expression in 12‐month‐old female wild‐type mice presented significant rhythmicity. The circadian rhythmicity of Ace and Ttr, prompt us to analyze the involvement of circadian rhythm in Aβ uptake. A human CP papilloma (HIBCPP) cell line was incubated with Aβ‐488 and uptake was evaluated at different time points using flow cytometry. Aβ uptake displayed circadian rhythmicity. Our results suggest that AD might affect Aβ scavengers rhythmicity and that Aβ clearance is a rhythmic process possibly regulated by the rhythmic expression of Aβ scavengers.

Furtado, André↗
DOE OSTI2025

Including frameworks of public health ethics in computational modelling of infectious disease interventions

Decisions on public health interventions to control infectious diseases are often informed by computational models. Interpreting the predicted outcomes of a public health decision requires not only high-quality modelling but also an ethical framework for assessing the benefits and harms associated with different options. The design and specification of ethical frameworks matured independently of computational modelling, so many values recognized as important for ethical decision-making are missing from computational models. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach to incorporate multiple public health values into the evaluation of a simple computational model for vaccination against a pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2. By examining a bounded space of alternative prioritizations of three values relevant to public health ethics (aggregate clinical burden, equity in clinical burden, equity in adverse effects from vaccination), we identify value trade-offs, where the outcomes of optimal strategies differ depending on the ethical framework. This work demonstrates an approach to incorporating diverse values into decision criteria used to evaluate outcomes of models of infectious disease interventions.

"Mathematical Biology"↗
DOE OSTI2024

De novo design of miniprotein antagonists of cytokine storm inducers

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS), commonly known as cytokine storm, is an acute systemic inflammatory response that is a significant global health threat. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-1 (IL-1) are key pro-inflammatory cytokines involved in CRS and are hence critical therapeutic targets. Current antagonists, such as tocilizumab and anakinra, target IL-6R/IL-1R but have limitations due to their long half-life and systemic anti-inflammatory effects, making them less suitable for acute or localized treatments. Here we present the de novo design of small protein antagonists that prevent IL-1 and IL-6 from interacting with their receptors to activate signaling. The designed proteins bind to the IL-6R, GP130 (an IL-6 co-receptor), and IL-1R1 receptor subunits with binding affinities in the picomolar to low-nanomolar range. X-ray crystallography studies reveal that the structures of these antagonists closely match their computational design models. In a human cardiac organoid disease model, the IL-1R antagonists demonstrated protective effects against inflammation and cardiac damage induced by IL-1β. These minibinders show promise for administration via subcutaneous injection or intranasal/inhaled routes to mitigate acute cytokine storm effects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗