Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1
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Brin Bailey↗
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Risk Assessment Overview
Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.
Prassinos, Peter G.↗
Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response
This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.
characterization↗
ISRU Soil Mechanics Vacuum Facility: Soil Bin Preparation and Simulant Strength Characterization
Testing in relevant environments is key to exploration mission hardware development. This is true on both the component level (in early development) and system level (in late development stages). During ISRU missions the hardware will interface with the soil (digging, roving, etc) in a vacuum environment. A relevant test environment will therefore involve a vacuum chamber with a controlled, conditioned simulant bed. However, in earth-based granular media, such as lunar soil simulant, gases trapped within the material pore structures and water adsorbed to all particle surfaces will release when exposed to vacuum. Early vacuum testing has shown that this gas release can occur violently, which loosens and weakens the simulant, altering the consolidation state. The Vacuum Facility #13, a mid-size chamber (3.66m tall, 1.5m inner diameter) at the NASA Glenn Research Center has been modified to create a soil mechanics test facility. A 0.64m deep by 0.914m square metric ton bed of lunar simulant was placed under vacuum using a variety of pumping techniques. Both GRC-3 and LHT-3M simulant types have been used. An electric cone penetrometer was used to measure simulant strength properties at vacuum including: cohesion, friction angle, bulk density and shear modulus. Simulant disruptions, caused by off gassing, affected the strength properties, but could be mitigated by reducing pump rate. No disruptions were observed at pressures below 2.5Torr, regardless of the pump rate. However, slow off gassing of the soil lead to long test times, a full week, to reach 10-5Torr. This work highlights the need for robotic machine-simulant hardware and operations in vacuum to expeditiously perform (sub-)systems tests.
Kleinhenz, Julie↗
Los Alamos RAGE Simulations of the HAIV Mission Concept
The mitigation of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) can be accomplished by a variety of methods including kinetic impactors, gravity tractors and several nuclear explosion options. Depending on the available lead time prior to Earth impact, non- nuclear options can be very effective at altering a PHOs orbit. However if the warning time is short nuclear options are generally deemed most effective at mitigating the hazard. The NIAC mission concept for a nuclear mission has been presented at several meetings, including the last PDC (2013).We use the adaptive mesh hydrocode RAGE to perform detailed simulations of this Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) mission concept. We use the RAGE code to simulate the crater formation by the kinetic impactor as well as the explosion and energy coupling from the follower nuclear explosive device (NED) timed to detonate below the original surface to enhance the energy coupling. The RAGE code has been well validated for a wide variety of applications. A parametric study will be shown of the energy and momentum transfer to the target 100 m diameter object: 1) the HAIV mission as planned; 2) a surface explosion and 3) a subsurface (contained) explosion; both 2) and 3) use the same source energy as 1).Preliminary RAGE simulations show that the kinetic impactor will carve out a surface crater on the object and the subsequent NED explosion at the bottom of the crater transfers energy and momentum to the target effectively moving it off its Earth crossing orbit. Figure 1 shows the initial (simplified) RAGE 2D setup geometry for this study. Figure 2 shows the crater created by the kinetic impactor and Figure 3 shows the time sequence of the energy transfer to the target by the NED.
Asteroid Mitigation↗
Truncated ARQ Statistical Link Analysis for Dynamic Links
The future deep space links are migrating towards higher frequency bands such as Ka band and optical. These links are susceptible to non Gaussian and non linear effects such as atmospheric turbulence, scintillation, antenna mis-pointing, jitter, etc. These dynamic links thus will experience various degrees of fading loss, and some of these link disruptions cannot be effectively mitigated by forward error correction coding and/or interleaving. One effective way to ensure reliable communication is by using Automatic Repeat Request (ARQ) protocol, where the receiver acknowledges to the transmitter whether or not a data unit is successfully received. If a data unit is not successfully received (such as after a pre-set time-out), the transmitter would then re-transmit the lost data unit to the receiver. In a previous paper, we derived a statistical link analysis method of finding the optimal operating Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and estimating the latency of an ARQ scheme. In a more recent paper, we demonstrated the above method using the SNR distribution constructed from the Ka-band (32 GHz) flight data. To simplify the discussion, we considered the academic approach that the ARQ scheme allows for an infinite number of retransmissions. In this paper, we consider the more practical case of a truncated ARQ scheme, where there is a limit on the number of retransmissions. We derive the error probability, the optimal SNR setting, and the latency statistics of the correctly received frames of the truncated ARQ schemes. We first discuss the truncated ARQ link analysis principles using the Gaussian assumption for SNR distribution with a large variance. Next, we demonstrate the statistical truncated ARQ link analysis using the SNR distribution constructed from the Ka-band flight data. The results in this paper can be applied in the design of reliable communication systems such as the Consultative Committee for Space Data System (CCSDS) File Transfer Protocol (CFTP) and the Delay Tolerant Network (DTN).
Morabito, David↗
Development and Testing of an ISRU Soil Mechanics Vacuum Test Facility
For extraterrestrial missions, earth based testing in relevant environments is key to successful hardware development. This is true for both early component level development and system level integration. For In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) on the moon, hardware must interface with the surface material, or regolith, in a vacuum environment. A relevant test environment will therefore involve a vacuum chamber with a controlled, properly conditioned bed of lunar regolith simulant. However, in earth-based granular media, such as lunar regolith simulant, gases trapped within the material pore structures and water adsorbed to all particle surfaces will release when exposed to vacuum. Early vacuum testing has shown that this gas release can occur violently, which loosens and weakens the simulant, altering the consolidation state. A mid-size chamber (3.66 m tall, 1.5 m inner diameter) at the NASA Glenn Research Center has been modified to create a soil mechanics test facility. A 0.64 m deep by 0.914 m square metric ton bed of lunar simulant was placed under vacuum using a variety of pumping techniques. Both GRC-3 and LHT-3M simulant types were used. Data obtained from an electric cone penetrometer can be used to determine strength properties at vacuum including: cohesion, friction angle, bulk density and shear modulus. Simulant disruptions, caused by off-gassing, affected the strength properties, but could be mitigated by reducing pump rate. No disruptions were observed at pressures below 2.5 Torr, regardless of the pump rate. The slow off-gassing of the soil at low pressure lead to long test times; a full week to reach 10(exp -5) Torr. Robotic soil manipulation would enable multiple ISRU hardware test within the same vacuum cycle. The feasibility of a robotically controlled auger and tamper was explored at vacuum conditions.
lunar regolith↗
Application of Fountain Code to High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networks
Space communication poses several unique challenges that are not always present in typical terrestrial communications. Currently, communication with satellites is based on point-to-point links, and development of an interplanetary internet is an active research area. Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) has been proposed as a way to mitigate the long delays and disruptions found in deep space. A specialized version of DTN, called High-rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN), has been developed by NASA to support a variety of missions requiring store-and-forward capability. However, there are still several features that are desired for HDTN including data fragmentation, multicast, and anycast. This project proposes the application of fountain code in HDTN as a means of fragmenting, distributing, and reassembling data (in the form of bundles) across multiple nodes (i.e. satellites) to any number of receivers (i.e. ground stations). Fountain code is shown to be a promising encoding method for use with the HDTN protocol suite due to its short runtimes, small encoded file sizes, and loss tolerance.
Noah Douglass↗
Initial Characterization of Optical Communications with Disruption-Tolerant Network Protocols
Disruption-tolerant networks (DTNs) are groups of network assets connected with a suite of communication protocol technologies designed to mitigate the effects of link delay and disruption. Application of DTN protocols to diverse groups of network resources in multiple sub-networks results in an overlay network-of-networks with autonomous data routing capability. In space environments where delay or disruption is expected, performance of this type of architecture (such as an interplanetary internet) can increase with the inclusion of new communications mediums and techniques. Space-based optical communication links are therefore an excellent building block of space DTN architectures. When compared to traditional radio frequency (RF) communications, optical systems can provide extremely power-efficient and high bandwidth links bridging sub-networks. Because optical links are more susceptible to link disruption and experience the same light-speed delays as RF, optical-enabled DTN architectures can lessen potential drawbacks and maintain the benefits of autonomous optical communications over deep space distances. These environment-driven expectations - link delay and interruption, along with asymmetric data rates - are the purpose of the proof-of-concept experiment outlined herein. In recognizing the potential of these two technologies, we report an initial experiment and characterization of the performance of a DTN-enabled space optical link. The experiment design employs a point-to-point free-space optical link configured to have asymmetric bandwidth. This link connects two networked systems running a DTN protocol implementation designed and written at JPL for use on spacecraft, and further configured for higher bandwidth performance. Comparing baseline data transmission metrics with and without periodic optical link interruptions, the experiment confirmed the DTN protocols' ability to handle real-world unexpected link outages while maintaining capability of reliably delivering data at relatively high rates. Finally, performance characterizations from this data suggest performance optimizations to configuration and protocols for future optical-specific DTN space link scenarios.
Space networking↗
Estimating the Need for Medical Intervention due to Sleep Disruption on the International Space Station
During ISS and shuttle missions, difficulties with sleep affect more than half of all US crews. Mitigation strategies to help astronauts cope with the challenges of disrupted sleep patterns can negatively impact both mission planning and vehicle design. The methods for addressing known detrimental impacts for some mission scenarios may have a substantial impact on vehicle specific consumable mass or volume or on the mission timeline. As part of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) task, NASA Glenn Research Center is leading the development of a Monte Carlo based forecasting tool designed to determine the consumables required to address risks related to sleep disruption. The model currently focuses on the International Space Station and uses an algorithm that assembles representative mission schedules and feeds this into a well validated model that predicts relative levels of performance, and need for sleep (SAFTE Model, IBR Inc). Correlation of the resulting output to self-diagnosed needs for hypnotics, stimulants, and other pharmaceutical countermeasures, allows prediction of pharmaceutical use and the uncertainty of the specified prediction. This paper outlines a conceptual model for determining a rate of pharmaceutical utilization that can be used in the IMM model for comparison and optimization of mitigation methods with respect to all other significant medical needs and interventions.
Myers, Jerry G.↗
Retrofitting the AutoBayes Program Synthesis System with Concrete Syntax
AutoBayes is a fully automatic, schema-based program synthesis system for statistical data analysis applications. Its core component is a schema library. i.e., a collection of generic code templates with associated applicability constraints which are instantiated in a problem-specific way during synthesis. Currently, AutoBayes is implemented in Prolog; the schemas thus use abstract syntax (i.e., Prolog terms) to formulate the templates. However, the conceptual distance between this abstract representation and the concrete syntax of the generated programs makes the schemas hard to create and maintain. In this paper we describe how AutoBayes is retrofitted with concrete syntax. We show how it is integrated into Prolog and describe how the seamless interaction of concrete syntax fragments with AutoBayes's remaining legacy meta-programming kernel based on abstract syntax is achieved. We apply the approach to gradually mitigate individual schemas without forcing a disruptive migration of the entire system to a different First experiences show that a smooth migration can be achieved. Moreover, it can result in a considerable reduction of the code size and improved readability of the code. In particular, abstracting out fresh-variable generation and second-order term construction allows the formulation of larger continuous fragments.
Fischer, Bernd↗
Integrating Manned Aircraft and UAVs for the Prediction, Tracking, and Eradication of Desert Locust Swarms
Desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria) present an acute threat to the agriculture of certain regions, capable of annihilating vast expanses of farmland and destabilizing food security. In this paper, an aviation-based framework concept is introduced that integrates both manned aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to preemptively forecast, localize, and eliminate locust swarms efficiently. The framework begins by leveraging predictive modeling methods to refine search areas and pinpoint high-value Points of Interest (POIs) where locust swarms are most likely to materialize. From there, the proposed two-step model uses optical, infrared, and hyperspectral sensors onboard manned aircraft to conduct long-range surveying of probable swarm locations. Upon detection of a swarm, UAVs equipped with sophisticated sensors, including pheromone detectors, thermal and optical imaging systems, are deployed directly from the aircraft to carry out targeted biopesticide applications. This approach, which capitalizes on the combined strengths of both vehicles, provides the rapid response and large-scale intervention necessary to control locust outbreaks. By targeting locust swarms during their most destructive phase, this paper aims to disrupt the locust life cycle and mitigate their severe agricultural impact, offering a scalable and sustainable solution for food security in afflicted regions.
locust monitoring systems↗
Understanding and Counteracting Fatigue in Flight Crews
The materials included in the collection of documents describe the research of the NASA Ames Fatigue Countermeasures Group (FCG), which examines the extent to which fatigue, sleep loss, and circadian disruption affect flight-crew performance. The group was formed in 1980 in response to a Congressional request to examine a possible safety problem of uncertain magnitude due to transmeridian flying and a potential problem due to fatigue in association with various factors found in air-transport operations and was originally called the Fatigue/Jet Lag Program. The goals of the FCG are: (1) the development and evaluation of strategies for mitigating the effects of sleepiness and circadian disruption on pilot performance levels; (2) the identification and evaluation of objective approaches for the prediction of alertness changes in flight crews; and (3) the transfer and application of research results to the operational field via classes, workshops, and safety briefings. Some of the countermeasure approaches that have been identified to be scientifically valid and operationally relevant are brief naps (less than 40 min) in the cockpit seat and 7-min activity breaks, which include postural changes and ambulation. Although a video-based alertness monitor based on slow eyelid closure shows promise in other operational environments, research by the FCG has demonstrated that in its current form at the time of this reporting, it is not feasible to implement it in the cockpit. Efforts also focus on documenting the impact of untreated fatigue on various types of flight operations. For example, the FCG recently completed a major investigation into the effects of ultra-long-range flights (20 continuous hours in duration) on the alertness and performance of pilots in order to establish a baseline set of parameters against which the effectiveness of new ultra-long-range fatigue remedies can be judged.
Mallis, Melissa↗
Circadian rhythms, sleep, and performance in space
Maintaining optimal alertness and neurobehavioral functioning during space operations is critical to enable the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) vision "to extend humanity's reach to the Moon, Mars and beyond" to become a reality. Field data have demonstrated that sleep times and performance of crewmembers can be compromised by extended duty days, irregular work schedules, high workload, and varying environmental factors. This paper documents evidence of significant sleep loss and disruption of circadian rhythms in astronauts and associated performance decrements during several space missions, which demonstrates the need to develop effective countermeasures. Both sleep and circadian disruptions have been identified in the Behavioral Health and Performance (BH&P) area and the Advanced Human Support Technology (AHST) area of NASA's Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap. Such disruptions could have serious consequences on the effectiveness, health, and safety of astronaut crews, thus reducing the safety margin and increasing the chances of an accident or incident. These decrements oftentimes can be difficult to detect and counter effectively in restrictive operational environments. NASA is focusing research on the development of optimal sleep/wake schedules and countermeasure timing and application to help mitigate the cumulative effects of sleep and circadian disruption and enhance operational performance. Investing research in humans is one of NASA's building blocks that will allow for both short- and long-duration space missions and help NASA in developing approaches to manage and overcome the human limitations of space travel. In addition to reviewing the current state of knowledge concerning sleep and circadian disruptions during space operations, this paper provides an overview of NASA's broad research goals. Also, NASA-funded research, designed to evaluate the relationships between sleep quality, circadian rhythm stability, and performance proficiency in both ground-based simulations and space mission studies, as described in the 2003 NASA Task Book, will be reviewed.
Review↗
Air Traffic Metrics to Quantify Disruption from Natural (Weather) and Man-Made (Cyber) Causes
This tutorial describes research in the development of air traffic metrics to guide responses to weather and explores the development of metrics needed to model and mitigate man-made events.
Disruption↗
Alertness management in two-person long-haul flight operations
Long-haul flight operations involve cumulative sleep loss, circadian disruption, and extended and irregular duty schedules. These factors reduce pilot alertness and performance on the flightdeck. Conceptually and operationally, alertness management in flight operations can be divided into preventive strategies and operational countermeasures. Preventive strategies are utilized prior to a duty period to mitigate or reduce the effects of sleep loss, circadian disruption and fatigue during subsequent flight operations. Operational countermeasures are used during operations as acute techniques for maintaining performance and alertness. Results from previous NASA Ames field studies document the sleep loss and circadian disruption in three-person long-haul flying and illustrate the application of preventive strategies and operational countermeasures. One strategy that can be used in both a preventive and operational manner is strategic napping. The application and effectiveness of strategic napping in long-haul operations will be discussed. Finally, long-haul flying in two-person highly automated aircraft capable of extended range operations will create new challenges to maintaining pilot alertness and performance. Alertness management issues in this flight environment will be explored.
Rosekind, M. R.↗
Spacecraft Mission Design for the Mitigation of the 2017 PDC Hypothetical Asteroid Threat
This paper presents a detailed mission design analysis results for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario, documented at https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ pd/cs/pdc17/. The mission design includes campaigns for both reconnaissance (flyby or rendezvous) of the asteroid (to characterize it and the nature of the threat it poses to Earth) and mitigation of the asteroid, via kinetic impactor deflection, nuclear explosive device (NED) deflection, or NED disruption. Relevant scenario parameters are varied to assess the sensitivity of the design outcome, such as asteroid bulk density, asteroid diameter, momentum enhancement factor, spacecraft launch vehicle, and mitigation system type. Different trajectory types are evaluated in the mission design process from purely ballistic to those involving optimal midcourse maneuvers, planetary gravity assists, and/or lowthrust solar electric propulsion. The trajectory optimization is targeted around peak deflection points that were found through a novel linear numerical technique method. The optimization process includes constrain parameters, such as Earth departure date, launch declination, spacecraft/asteroid relative velocity and solar phase angle, spacecraft dry mass, minimum/maximum spacecraft distances from Sun and Earth, and Earth/spacecraft communications line of sight. Results show that one of the best options for the 2017 PDC deflection is solar electric propelled rendezvous mission with a single spacecraft using NED for the deflection
Barbee, Brent W.↗
Spacecraft Mission Design for the Mitigation of the 2017 PDC Hypothetical Asteroid Threat
This paper presents a detailed mission design analysis results for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario, documented at https:cneos.jpl.nasa.govpdcspdc17. The mission design includes campaigns for both reconnaissance (flyby or rendezvous) of the asteroid (to characterize it and the nature of the threat it poses to Earth) and mitigation of the asteroid, via kinetic impactor deflection, nuclear explosive device (NED) deflection, or NED disruption. Relevant scenario parameters are varied to assess the sensitivity of the design outcome, such as asteroid bulk density, asteroid diameter, momentum enhancement factor, spacecraft launch vehicle, and mitigation system type. Different trajectory types are evaluated in the mission design process from purely ballistic to those involving optimal midcourse maneuvers, planetary gravity assists, and/or low-thrust solar electric propulsion. The trajectory optimization is targeted around peak deflection points that were found through a novel linear numerical technique method. The optimization process includes constrain parameters, such as Earth departure date, launch declination, spacecraft, asteroid relative velocity and solar phase angle, spacecraft dry mass, minimum/maximum spacecraft distances from Sun and Earth, and Earth-spacecraft communications line of sight. Results show that one of the best options for the 2017 PDC deflection is solar electric propelled rendezvous mission with a single spacecraft using NED for the deflection.
Barbee, Brent W.↗