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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting Distributed PV Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia [Slides]

The objective of the dGen Colombia project is to provide projections to 2050 on distributed PV deployment by sector for a range of scenarios for Barranquilla, Colombia. NREL used the open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen) adapted for international projects for this analysis. As part of this analysis, technical potential, economic potential, and adoption projections of rooftop and groundmount PV for the city of Barranquilla are presented. Five main scenarios and their combinations were modeled to provide insight on the impact of increased demand from electric vehicles, air conditioning, and time-of-use tariffs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Appendix

AWS Truepower - SWIFT Forecasting Details Appendix to Distributed Resource Energy Analysis & Management System (DREAMS) Development for Real-time Grid Operations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Consumption Behavior Analytics-Aided Energy Forecasting and Dispatch

For decades, electricity customers have been treated as mere recipients of electricity in vertically integrated power systems. However, as customers have widely adopted distributed energy resources and other forms of customer participation in active dispatch (such as demand response) have taken shape, the value of mining knowledge from customer behavior patterns and using it for power system operation is increasing. Further, the variability of renewable energy resources has been considered a liability to the grid. However, electricity consumption has shown the same level of variability and uncertainty, and this is sometimes overlooked. This article investigates data analytics and forecasting methods to identify correlations between electricity consumption behavior and distributed photovoltaic (PV) output. The forecasting results feed into a predictive energy management system that optimizes energy consumption in the near future to balance customer demand and power system needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Image phase shift invariance based cloud motion displacement vector calculation method for ultra-short-term solar PV power forecasting

Irradiance received on the earth's surface is the main factor that affects the output power of solar PV plants, and is chiefly determined by the cloud distribution seen in a ground-based sky image at the corresponding moment in time. It is the foundation for those linear extrapolation-based ultra-short-term solar PV power forecasting approaches to obtain the cloud distribution in future sky images from the accurate calculation of cloud motion displacement vectors (CMDVs) by using historical sky images. Theoretically, the CMDV can be obtained from the coordinate of the peak pulse calculated from a Fourier phase correlation theory (FPCT) method through the frequency domain information of sky images. The peak pulse is significant and unique only when the cloud deformation between two consecutive sky images is slight enough, which is likely possible for a very short time interval (such as 1?min or shorter) with common changes in the speed of cloud. Sometimes, there will be more than one pulse with similar values when the deformation of the clouds between two consecutive sky images is comparatively obvious under fast changing cloud speeds. This would probably lead to significant errors if the CMDVs were still only obtained from the single coordinate of the peak value pulse. However, the deformation estimation of clouds between two images and its influence on FPCT-based CMDV calculations are terrifically complex and difficult because the motion of clouds is complicated to describe and model. Therefore, to improve the accuracy and reliability under these circumstances in a simple manner, an image-phase-shift-invariance (IPSI) based CMDV calculation method using FPCT is proposed for minute time scale solar power forecasting. First, multiple different CMDVs are calculated from the corresponding consecutive images pairs obtained through different synchronous rotation angles compared to the original images by using the FPCT method. Second, the final CMDV is generated from all of the calculated CMDVs through a centroid iteration strategy based on its density and distance distribution. Third, the influence of different rotation angle resolution on the final CMDV is analyzed as a means of parameter estimation. Simulations under various scenarios including both thick and thin clouds conditions indicated that the proposed IPSI-based CMDV calculation method using FPCT is more accurate and reliable than the original FPCT method, optimal flow (OF) method, and particle image velocimetry (PIV) method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Microgrid Optimal Scheduling With Chance-Constrained Islanding Capability

To facilitate the integration of variable renewable generation and improve the resilience of electricity sup-ply in a microgrid, this paper proposes an optimal scheduling strategy for microgrid operation considering constraints of islanding capability. A new concept, probability of successful islanding (PSI), indicating the probability that a microgrid maintains enough spinning reserve (both up and down) to meet local demand and accommodate local renewable generation after instantaneously islanding from the main grid, is developed. The PSI is formulated as mixed-integer linear program using multi-interval approximation taking into account the probability distributions of forecast errors of wind, PV and load. With the goal of minimizing the total operating cost while preserving user specified PSI, a chance-constrained optimization problem is formulated for the optimal scheduling of mirogrids and solved by mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Numerical simulations on a microgrid consisting of a wind turbine, a PV panel, a fuel cell, a micro-turbine, a diesel generator and a battery demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheduling strategy. Lastly, we verify the relationship between PSI and various factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Distribution-Agnostic Stochastic Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Grids

This paper outlines a data-driven, distributionally robust approach to solve chance-constrained AC optimal power flow problems in distribution networks. Uncertain forecasts for loads and power generated by photovoltaic (PV) systems are considered, with the goal of minimizing PV curtailment while meeting power flow and voltage regulation constraints. A data- driven approach is utilized to develop a distributionally robust conservative convex approximation of the chance-constraints; particularly, the mean and covariance matrix of the forecast errors are updated online, and leveraged to enforce voltage regulation with predetermined probability via Chebyshev-based bounds. By combining an accurate linear approximation of the AC power flow equations with the distributionally robust chance constraint reformulation, the resulting optimization problem becomes convex and computationally tractable.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using Willingness to Pay to Forecast the Adoption of Solar Photovoltaics: A ''Parameterization + Calibration'' Approach

Distributed energy resources, such as rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV), are likely to comprise a substantial fraction of new generation capacity in the United States. However, forecasting technology adoption based on people's willingness to pay (WTP) faces two major challenges: the stated-intention and omitted-variable biases. Previous solar adoption literature has neglected to address these two biases altogether. Here, we adopt a 'parameterization + calibration' approach to address both biases and estimate customers' WTP for PV. After collecting survey data on respondents' WTP for adopting PV, we characterize its empirical cumulative density function using a gamma distribution. We further calibrate the gamma distribution parameters using a national distributed PV adoption simulation model, finding the parameters that produce the best fit between simulated and historic solar adoption. We then show that the calibrated gamma distribution improves the raw WTP data after correcting for the two biases. Finally, we use our optimally-calibrated WTP to forecast market demand for residential PV at the county-level of the United States in 2020. Improving estimates of customer willingness to pay has significant implications for policy directly, e.g. estimating the effect of a proposed policy on technology adoption, and other regulatory processes that use forecasting, e.g. integrated resource planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Forecasting residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California

Residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the United States has experienced robust growth, and policy changes impacting the value of solar are likely to occur at the federal and state levels. To establish a credible baseline and evaluate impacts of potential new policies, this analysis employs multiple methods to forecast residential PV deployment in California, including a time-series forecasting model, a threshold heterogeneity diffusion model, a Bass diffusion model, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's dSolar model. As a baseline, the residential PV market in California is modeled to peak in the early 2020s, with a peak annual installation of 1.5-2 GW across models. We then use the baseline results from the dSolar model and the threshold model to gauge the impact of the recent federal investment tax credit (ITC) extension, the newly approved California net energy metering (NEM) policy, and a hypothetical value-of-solar (VOS) compensation scheme. We find that the recent ITC extension may increase annual PV installations by 12%-18% (roughly 500 MW, MW) for the California residential sector in 2019-2020. The new NEM policy only has a negligible effect in California due to the relatively small new charges (< 100 MW in 2019-2020). Moreover, impacts of the VOS compensation scheme (0.12 cents per kilowatt-hour) are larger, reducing annual PV adoption by 32% (or 900-1300 MW) in 2019-2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive and Cooperative Voltage Control with Probabilistic Load and Solar Generation Forecasting

This paper proposes predictive cooperative voltage control method in a power system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. Cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output of PV inverters is coordinated with operation of voltage regulators (VRs) to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar power generation and the loads is applied to estimate voltage changes which, in turn, are used to set the VR tap positions for preventing large voltage fluctuations with the lowest risk considering the voltage distribution estimation. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on the modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high PV penetration using real insolation data and with constant loads replaced by several different load profiles. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the coordinated approach for voltage control with cooperative PV and predictive VR controls taking into account probabilistic load and solar power forecasts.

Cooperative Control↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic multi-period optimal dispatch of energy storage in unbalanced distribution feeders

This report presents a convex, multi-period, AC-feasible Optimal Power Flow (OPF) framework that robustly dispatches flexible demand-side resources in unbalanced distribution feeders against uncertainty in very-short timescale solar Photo-Voltaic (PV) forecasts. This is valuable for power systems with significant behind-the-meter solar PV generation as their operation is affected by uncertainty from forecasts of demand and solar PV generation. The aim of this work is then to ensure the feasibility and reliability of distribution system operation under high solar PV penetration. We develop and present a novel, robust OPF formulation that accounts for both the nonlinear power flow constraints and the uncertainty in forecasts. This is achieved by linearizing an optimal trajectory and using first-order methods to systematically tighten voltage bounds. Case studies on a realistic distribution feeder shows the effectiveness of a receding-horizon implementation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Novel stochastic methods to predict short-term solar radiation and photovoltaic power

Solar forecasting has evolved towards becoming a key component of economical realization of high penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper presents two novel stochastic forecasting models for solar PV by utilizing historical measurement data to outline a short-term high-resolution probabilistic behavior of solar. First, an uncertain basis functions method is used to forecast both solar radiation and PV power. Three possible distributions are considered for the uncertain basis functions - Gaussian, Laplace, and Uniform distributions. Second, stochastic state-space models are applied to characterize the behaviors of solar radiation and PV power output. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to recursively estimate the system parameters and state variables. This enables the system to accurately forecast small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The introduced forecasting models are suitable for real-time tertiary dispatch controllers and optimal power controllers. The PV forecasting models are tested using solar radiation and PV power measurement data collected from a 13.5 kW PV panel installed on the rooftop of our laboratory. Furthermore, the results are compared with standard time series forecasting mechanisms and show a substantial improvement in the forecasting accuracy of the total energy produced.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗
DOE OSTI2021

City-Wide Distributed Roof-Top Photovoltaic System Adoption Forecast, Grid Impact Simulation, & Neighborhood Microgrid Contribution Assessment

The adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems grew significantly in recent years. Market projections anticipate future growth for both residential and commercial installations. To understand grid impacts associated with distributed PV, useful hosting capacity studies require accurate representations of the spatial distribution of PV adoptions. Prediction of PV locations and numbers depends on median income data, building use zoning maps, and permit records to understand existing trends and predict future adoption rates and locations throughout an entire city. Using the PV adoption data, advanced and realistic simulations were performed to capture the distributed PV impacts on the grid. Also, using graph theory community detection hundreds of neighborhood microgrids can be discovered for the entire city by identifying densely connected loads that are sparsely connected to other communities. Then, based on the PV adoption predictions, this work identified the contribution of PV within each of the newly discovered graph theory defined microgrid communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Privacy-preserving federated learning: Application to behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic generation forecasting

Here, the growing usage of decentralized renewable energy sources has made accurate estimation of their aggregated generation crucial for maintaining grid flexibility and reliability. However, the majority of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are behind-the-meter (BTM) and invisible to utilities, leading to three challenges in obtaining an accurate forecast of their aggregated output. Firstly, traditional centralized prediction algorithms used in previous studies may not be appropriate due to privacy concerns. There is therefore a need for decentralized forecasting methods, such as federated learning (FL), to protect privacy. Secondly, there has been no comparison between localized, centralized, and decentralized forecasting methods for BTM PV production, and the trade-off between prediction accuracy and privacy has not been explored. Lastly, the computational time of data-driven prediction algorithms has not been examined. This article presents a FL power forecasting method for PVs, which uses federated learning as a decentralized collaborative modeling approach to train a single model on data from multiple BTM sites. The machine learning network used to design this FL-based BTM PV forecasting model is a multi-layered perceptron, which ensures privacy and security of the data. Comparing the suggested FL forecasting model to non-private centralized and entirely private localized models revealed that it has a high level of accuracy, with an RMSE that is 18.17% lower than localized models and 9.9% higher than centralized models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar, Wind, and Load Forecasting Dataset for MISO, NYISO, and SPP Balancing Areas

The Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program is an initiative intended to foster "a fundamental shift in grid management rooted in an understanding of asset risk and system risk" (ARPA-E 2020). Launched by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), the program supports efforts to incorporate uncertainty in electric power decision making. In support of PERFORM, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced a set of time-coincident forecasts of solar, wind, and load profiles. As part of Phase I of the PERFORM effort, NREL created a dataset that consists of one year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts based on data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Bryce et al. 2023). In Phase II, NREL developed similar datasets for three other U.S. Independent System Operators (ISO): the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗