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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Bounding Species Distribution Models

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

Stohlgren, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Changes in TOA SW Fluxes over Marine Clouds When Estimated via Semiphysical Angular Distribution Models

Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) angular distribution models (ADMs) approximate—per angular direction of an imagined upward hemisphere—the intensity of sunlight scattered back from a specific Earth–atmosphere scene. ADMs are, thus, critical when converting satellite-borne broadband radiometry into estimated radiative fluxes. This paper applies a set of newly developed ADMs with a more refined scene definition and demonstrates tenable changes in estimated fluxes compared to currently operational ADMs. Newly developed ADMs use a semiphysical framework to consider cloud-top effective radius (¯¯R_e) and above-cloud water vapor (ACWV), in addition to accounting for surface wind speed and clouds’ phase, fraction, and optical depth. In effect, instantaneous TOA SW fluxes for marine liquid-phase clouds had the largest flux differences (of up to 25 W m−2) for lower solar zenith angles and cloud optical depth greater than 10 due to extremes in ¯¯R_e or ACWV. In regions where clouds had persistently extreme levels of ¯¯R_e (here mostly for ¯¯R_e < 7μm and ¯¯R_e > 15μm) or ACWV, instantaneous fluxes estimated from Aqua, Terra, Meteosat-8, and Meteosat-9 satellites using the two ADMs differed systematically, resulting in significant deviations in daily mean fluxes (up to ±10 W m^(−2)) and monthly mean fluxes (up to ±5 W m^(−2)). Flux estimates using newly developed, semiphysical ADMs may contribute to a better understanding of solar fluxes over low-level clouds. It remains to be seen whether aerosol indirect effects are impacted by these updates.

angular distribution models (ADMs)↗
NASA NTRS1982

A domain segmentation approach to modeling distributed parameter systems

Existing modeling methods in distributed parameter systems are directed to field problems for which a single equation gives an adequate representation. As a result, the techniques are severely taxed when coefficients of the governing partial differential equation (PDE) have relatively complex functional forms. The field is postulated to consist of contiguous regions that are easily modeled. During the modeling process itself, the regional boundaries are identified using a method based on pattern recognition (PR) techniques. The method was tested on computer simulations of a water quality resource system. Quantitative measures are developed and used to demonstrate the feasibility of applying the methodology to realistic distributed parameter systems (DPS's).

Apenyo, K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Regional Distribution Models with Lack of Proximate Predictors: Africanized Honeybees Expanding North

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species-environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

PRedictors↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bounds on galaxy stochasticity from halo occupation distribution modeling

The joint probability distribution of matter overdensity and galaxy counts in cells is a powerful probe of cosmology, and the extent to which variance in galaxy counts at fixed matter density deviates from Poisson shot noise is not fully understood. The lack of informed bounds on this stochasticity is currently the limiting factor in constraining cosmology with the galaxy–matter probability distribution function (PDF). We investigate stochasticity in the conditional distribution of galaxy counts along lines of sight with fixed matter density, and we present a halo occupation distribution (HOD)-based approach for obtaining plausible ranges for stochasticity parameters. To probe the high-dimensional space of possible galaxy–matter connections, we derive a set of HODs that conserve the galaxies’ linear bias and number density to produce RED M A G I C-like galaxy catalogs within the A BACUS S UMMIT suite of N -body simulations. We study the impact of individual HOD parameters and cosmology on stochasticity and perform a Monte Carlo search in HOD parameter space subject to the constraints on bias and density. In mock catalogs generated by the selected HODs, shot noise in galaxy counts spans both sub-Poisson and super-Poisson values, ranging from 80% to 133% of Poisson variance for cells with mean matter density. Nearly all of the derived HODs show a positive relationship between local matter density and stochasticity. For galaxy catalogs with higher stochasticity, modeling galaxy bias to second order is required for an accurate description of the conditional PDF of galaxy counts at fixed matter density. The presence of galaxy assembly bias also substantially extends the range of stochasticity in the super-Poisson direction. This HOD-based approach leverages degrees of freedom in the galaxy–halo connection to obtain informed bounds on nuisance model parameters and can be adapted to study other parametrizations of shot noise in galaxy counts, in particular to motivate prior ranges on stochasticity for cosmological analyses.

Britt, Dylan (ORCID:000000019905601X)↗
NASA NTRS1994

A probability distribution model for rain rate

A systematic approach is suggested for modeling the probability distribution of rain rate. Rain rate, conditional on rain and averaged over a region, is modeled as a temporally homogeneous diffusion process with appropiate boundary conditions. The approach requires a drift coefficient-conditional average instantaneous rate of change of rain intensity-as well as a diffusion coefficient-the conditional average magnitude of the rate of growth and decay of rain rate about its drift. Under certain assumptions on the drift and diffusion coefficients compatible with rain rate, a new parametric family-containing the lognormal distribution-is obtained for the continuous part of the stationary limit probability distribution. The family is fitted to tropical rainfall from Darwin and Florida, and it is found that the lognormal distribution provides adequate fits as compared with other members of the family and also with the gamma distribution.

Kedem, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS1979

Galactic distribution models of gamma-ray burst sources

The log N-log S relationships for several galactic distribution models of gamma-ray burst sources are derived. The resulting curves are substantially different from the galactic curves usually assumed (slope = -1). There is a relatively weak dependence on the radial distribution assumed but a strong dependence on scale height. Available observational data from several experiments appear to rule out both thin disk distributions and extended halo distributions which have a strong radial density dependence. The prospects are good for obtaining self-consistent distribution data from future large-area detectors.

Fishman, G. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Estimation from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite: Validation - Part II

Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) are estimated from empirical angular distribution models (ADMs) that convert instantaneous radiance measurements to TOA fluxes. This paper evaluates the accuracy of CERES TOA fluxes obtained from a new set of ADMs developed for the CERES instrument onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The uncertainty in regional monthly mean reflected shortwave (SW) and emitted longwave (LW) TOA fluxes is less than 0.5 W/sq m, based on comparisons with TOA fluxes evaluated by direct integration of the measured radiances. When stratified by viewing geometry, TOA fluxes from different angles are consistent to within 2% in the SW and 0.7% (or 2 W/sq m) in the LW. In contrast, TOA fluxes based on ADMs from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) applied to the same CERES radiance measurements show a 10% relative increase with viewing zenith angle in the SW and a 3.5% (9 W/sq m) decrease with viewing zenith angle in the LW. Based on multiangle CERES radiance measurements, 18 regional instantaneous TOA flux errors from the new CERES ADMs are estimated to be 10 W/sq m in the SW and, 3.5 W/sq m in the LW. The errors show little or no dependence on cloud phase, cloud optical depth, and cloud infrared emissivity. An analysis of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) sensitivity to differences between ERBE and CERES TRMM ADMs, scene identification, and directional models of albedo as a function of solar zenith angle shows that ADM and clear-sky scene identification differences can lead to an 8 W/sq m root-mean-square (rms) difference in 18 daily mean SW CRF and a 4 W/sq m rms difference in LW CRF. In contrast, monthly mean SW and LW CRF differences reach 3 W/sq m. CRF is found to be relatively insensitive to differences between the ERBE and CERES TRMM directional models.

Loeb, N. G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Top-of-Atmosphere Albedo Estimation from Angular Distribution Models using Scene Identification from Satellite Cloud Property Retrievals

The next generation of Earth radiation budget satellite instruments will routinely merge estimates of global top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes with cloud properties. This information will offer many new opportunities for validating radiative transfer models and cloud parameterizations in climate models. In this study, five months of POLarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances (POLDER) 670 nm radiance measurements are considered in order to examine how satellite cloud property retrievals can be used to define empirical Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for estimating top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedo. ADMs are defined for 19 scene types defined by satellite retrievals of cloud fraction and cloud optical depth. Two approaches are used to define the ADM scene types: The first assumes there are no biases in the retrieved cloud properties and defines ADMs for fixed discrete intervals of cloud fraction and cloud optical depth (fixed-tau approach). The second approach involves the same cloud fraction intervals, but uses percentile intervals of cloud optical depth instead (percentile-tau approach). Albedos generated using these methods are compared with albedos inferred directly from the mean observed reflectance field. Albedos based on ADMs that assume cloud properties are unbiased (fixed-tau approach) show a strong systematic dependence on viewing geometry. This dependence becomes more pronounced with increasing solar zenith angle, reaching approximately equals 12% (relative) between near-nadir and oblique viewing zenith angles for solar zenith angles between 60 deg and 70 deg. The cause for this bias is shown to be due to biases in the cloud optical depth retrievals. In contrast, albedos based on ADMs built using percentile intervals of cloud optical depth (percentile-tau approach) show very little viewing zenith angle dependence and are in good agreement with albedos obtained by direct integration of the mean observed reflectance field (less than 1% relative error). When the ADMs are applied separately to populations consisting of only liquid water and ice clouds, significant biases in albedo with viewing geometry are observed (particularly at low sun elevations), highlighting the need to account for cloud phase both in cloud optical depth retrievals and in defining ADM scene types. ADM-derived monthly mean albedos determined for all 5 deg x 5 deg latitude/longitude regions over ocean are in good agreement (regional RMS relative errors less than 2%) with those obtained by direct integration when ADM albedos inferred from specific angular bins are averaged together. Albedos inferred from near-nadir and oblique viewing zenith angles are the least accurate, with regional RMS errors reaching approximately 5-10% (relative). Compared to an earlier study involving ERBE ADMs, regional mean albedos based on the 19 scene types considered here show a factor of 4 reduction in bias error and a factor of 3 reduction in RMS error.

Loeb, N. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Next-Generation Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Calculation from CERES Instruments: Validation

Radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument are fundamental variables for understanding the Earth's energy balance and how it changes with time. TOA radiative fluxes are derived from the CERES radiance measurements using empirical angular distribution models (ADMs). This paper evaluates the accuracy of CERES TOA fluxes using direct integration and flux consistency tests. Direct integration tests show that the overall bias in regional monthly mean TOA shortwave (SW) flux is less than 0.2Wm(exp -2) and the RMSE is less than 1.1Wm(exp -2). The bias and RMSE are very similar between Terra and Aqua. The bias in regional monthly mean TOA LW fluxes is less than 0.5Wm(exp -2) and the RMSE is less than 0.8Wm(exp -)2 for both Terra and Aqua. The accuracy of the TOA instantaneous flux is assessed by performing tests using fluxes inverted from nadir- and oblique-viewing angles using CERES along-track observations and temporally and spatially matched MODIS observations, and using fluxes inverted from multi-angle MISR observations. The averaged TOA instantaneous SW flux uncertainties from these two tests are about 2.3% (1.9Wm(exp -2) over clear ocean, 1.6% (4.5Wm(exp -2) over clear land, and 2.0% (6.0Wm(exp -) over clear snow/ice; and are about 3.3% (9.0Wm(exp -2), 2.7% (8.4Wm(exp -2), and 3.7% (9.9Wm(exp -2) over ocean, land, and snow/ice under all-sky conditions. The TOA SW flux uncertainties are generally larger for thin broken clouds than for moderate and thick overcast clouds. The TOA instantaneous daytime LW flux uncertainties derived from the CERESMODIS test are 0.5% (1.5Wm(exp -2), 0.8% (2.4Wm(exp -2), and 0.7% (1.3Wm(exp -2) over clear ocean, land, and snow/ice; and are about 1.5% (3.5Wm(exp -2), 1.0% (2.9Wm(exp -2), and 1.1% (2.1Wm(exp -2) over ocean, land, and snow/ice under all-sky conditions. The TOA instantaneous nighttime LW flux uncertainties are about 0.5-1% (<2.0Wm(exp -2) for all surface types. Flux uncertainties caused by errors in scene identification are also assessed by using the collocated CALIPSO, CloudSat, CERES and MODIS data product. Errors in scene identification tend to underestimate TOA SW flux by about 0.6Wm(exp -2) and overestimate TOA daytime (nighttime) LW flux by 0.4 (0.2)Wm(exp -2) when all CERES viewing angles are considered.

Su, W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Estimation from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument on the Terra Satellite: Methodology - Part 1

The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) provides coincident global cloud and aerosol properties together with reflected solar, emitted terrestrial longwave and infrared window radiative fluxes. These data are needed to improve our understanding and modeling of the interaction between clouds, aerosols and radiation at the top of the atmosphere, surface, and within the atmosphere. This paper describes the approach used to estimate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes from instantaneous CERES radiance measurements on the Terra satellite. A key component involves the development of empirical angular distribution models (ADMs) that account for the angular dependence of Earth's radiation field at the TOA. The CERES Terra ADMs are developed using 24 months of CERES radiances, coincident cloud and aerosol retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and meteorological parameters from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMA0) s Goddard Earth Observing System DAS (GEOS-DAS V4.0.3) product. Scene information for the ADMs is from MODIS retrievals and GEOS-DAS V4.0.3 properties over ocean, land, desert and snow, for both clear and cloudy conditions. Because the CERES Terra ADMs are global, and far more CERES data is available on Terra than was available from CERES on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the methodology used to define CERES Terra ADMs is different in many respects from that used to develop CERES TRMM ADMs, particularly over snow/sea-ice, under cloudy conditions, and for clear scenes over land and desert.

Loeb, N. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Next-Generation Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Calculation from the CERES Instruments: Methodology

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes are critical components to advancing our understanding of the Earth's radiative energy balance, radiative effects of clouds and aerosols, and climate feedback. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments provide broadband shortwave and longwave radiance measurements. These radiances are converted to fluxes by using scene-type-dependent angular distribution models (ADMs). This paper describes the next-generation ADMs that are developed for Terra and Aqua using all available CERES rotating azimuth plane radiance measurements. Coincident cloud and aerosol retrievals, and radiance measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and meteorological parameters from Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation version 5.4.1 are used to define scene type. CERES radiance measurements are stratified by scene type and by other parameters that are important for determining the anisotropy of the given scene type. Anisotropic factors are then defined either for discrete intervals of relevant parameters or as a continuous functions of combined parameters, depending on the scene type. Significant differences between the ADMs described in this paper and the existing ADMs are over clear-sky scene types and polar scene types. Over clear ocean, we developed a set of shortwave (SW) ADMs that explicitly account for aerosols. Over clear land, the SW ADMs are developed for every 1 latitude1 longitude region for every calendar month using a kernel-based bidirectional reflectance model. Over clear Antarctic scenes, SW ADMs are developed by accounting the effects of sastrugi on anisotropy. Over sea ice, a sea-ice brightness index is used to classify the scene type. Under cloudy conditions over all surface types, the longwave (LW) and window (WN) ADMs are developed by combining surface and cloud-top temperature, surface and cloud emissivity, cloud fraction, and precipitable water. Compared to the existing ADMs, the new ADMs change the monthly mean instantaneous fluxes by up to 5Wm(exp -2) on a regional scale of 1 deg. latitude x 1 deg. longitude, but the flux changes are less than 0.5Wm(exp -2) on a global scale.

Su, W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Estimation from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite: Methodology - Part 1

Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) investigates the critical role that clouds and aerosols play in modulating the radiative energy flow within the Earth-atmosphere system. CERES builds upon the foundation laid by previous missions, such as the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, to provide highly accurate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes together with coincident cloud and aerosol properties inferred from high-resolution imager measurements. This paper describes the method used to construct empirical angular distribution models (ADMs) for estimating shortwave, longwave, and window TOA radiative fluxes from CERES radiance measurements on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. To construct the ADMs, multiangle CERES measurements are combined with coincident high-resolution Visible Infrared Scanner measurements and meteorological parameters from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data assimilation product. The ADMs are stratified by scene types defined by parameters that have a strong influence on the angular dependence of Earth's radiation field at the TOA. Examples of how the new CERES ADMs depend upon the imager-based parameters are provided together with comparisons with existing models.

Loeb, N. G.↗