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DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stability-based optimization of ACRT for the growth of CZT by the traveling heater method

Numerical modeling is employed to study the effects of several accelerated crucible rotation technique (ACRT) rotation schedules on the growth of cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) by the traveling heater method (THM). In conjunction with these analyses, a measure is developed to estimate the amplitude of disturbances associated with cellular interface growth morphologies that develop over time and across the melt-solid interface. Furthermore, this disturbance amplitude measure is used to assess the ability of ACRT to stabilize the growth interface and thereby minimize inclusion formation processes. Notably, our analyses reveal that interfacial instability is not well correlated with melt undercooling, explaining why classical ACRT approaches to reduce undercooling by mixing may not stabilize growth. Computations show that interface stability is best achieved via rotation schedules that accentuate outward Ekman flows during spin-up and, during spin-down, eliminate Taylor-Görtler flows and minimize inward Ekman flows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Are All Post-starbursts Mergers? HST Reveals Hidden Disturbances in the Majority of PSBs

How do galaxies transform from blue, star-forming spirals to red, quiescent early-type galaxies? To answer this question, we analyzed a set of 26 gas-rich, shocked post-starburst galaxies with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging in $B$, $I$, and $H$ bands and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) $i$-band imaging of similar depth but lower resolution. We found that post-starbursts in our sample have intermediate morphologies between disk- and bulge dominated (Sérsic $n$ = ${1.7}_{-0.0}^{+0.3}$ ) and have red bulges, likely due to dust obscuration in the cores. A majority of galaxies in our sample are more morphologically disturbed than regular galaxies (88%, corresponding to >3$σ$ significance) when observed with HST, with asymmetry and Sérsic residual flux fraction being the most successful measures of disturbance. Most disturbances are undetected at the lower resolution of SDSS imaging. Although ~27% galaxies are clear merger remnants, we found that disturbances in another ~30% of the sample are internal, caused by small-scale perturbations or dust substructures rather than tidal features, and require high-resolution imaging to detect. We found 2.8$σ$ evidence that asymmetry features fade on timescales ~200 Myr, and may vanish entirely after ~750 Myr, so we do not rule out a possible merger origin of all post-starbursts given that asymmetric features may have already faded. This work highlights the importance of small-scale disturbances, detected only in high-resolution imaging, in understanding structural evolution of transitioning galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Anomaly Detection in SCADA-Assisted OT Networks Using Ensemble-Based State Prediction Model

The cybersecurity threats of power system gradually grow due to the increased sophisticated interactions between Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) networks. False data injection attack (FDIA) that aims to compromise the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurement and disturb the system operation is one of such cyber threats. Such attacks can potentially lead to significant operational issues at the control centers and substations, and hence, result in severe physical consequences. To avoid catastrophic failure across the power grid resulting from these attacks, it is essential to arm the OT network with real-time vulnerability assessment tools. To this end, this paper outlines various drawbacks of the Purdue architecture model to defend against cyberattacks in the OT network. Furthermore, a novel ensemble-based state prediction model is proposed to detect cybersecurity anomalies in SCADA assisted OT networks. The proposed model uses control center level generation and load forecasts, scheduled, and forced outages, power flow solutions, and the substation level historical data. The hypothesis of the proposed scheme relies on the fact that additional control center and substation data can hardly be accessed and compromised by attackers. One of the vital features of the proposed scheme is an hour-ahead prediction of the operational feasibility of the SCADA measurement range at the control center and substation in real time helps in detecting anomalies in measurements across both substation and the control center.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accounting for erroneous model structures in biokinetic process models

In engineering practice, model-based design requires not only a good process-based model, but also a good description of stochastic disturbances and measurement errors to learn credible parameter values from observations. However, typical methods use Gaussian error models, which often cannot describe the complex temporal patterns of residuals. Consequently, this results in overconfidence in the identified parameters and, in turn, optimistic reactor designs. Here, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of a method to statistically describe these patterns with autocorrelated error models. This method produces increased widths of the credible prediction intervals following the inclusion of the bias term, in turn leading to more conservative design choices. However, we also show that the augmented error model is not a universal tool, as its application cannot guarantee the desired reliability of the resulting wastewater reactor design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precise ROCOF estimation algorithm for low inertia power grids

The precise estimation of Rate Of Change Of Frequencies (ROCOFs) in a generation trip event can be helpful on power system inertia estimation, fast system response, and accurate event capturing. However, the ROCOF estimations from the existing Synchronized Measurement Devices (SMDs) are usually simply calculated by the finite difference between two adjacent frequency measurement points. The ineluctable noises, disturbances, and spikes from real-world frequency measurements can bring large dynamics to the ROCOF estimation and thus can result in an inaccurate estimation of the initial ROCOF. This issue becomes more serious when the target power grid has low inertia, and a large amount of distributed energy sources are deployed. To address this issue, a precise ROCOF estimation algorithm is designed based on least square method with flexible window size. In addition, a median filter is also designed and applied on the frequency measurements before using the proposed algorithm. The window size and thresholds in the proposed algorithm are determined with historical event data analysis. The proposed algorithm is deployed in a low cost, flexible, and distribution level universal grid analyzer (UGA) platform. In conclusion, multiple experiments are conducted in both a laboratory and the Hawaiian Islands to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Faraday Rotation Measurements in High-Energy-Density Plasmas Using Shaped Laser Beams

Magnetic fields play an important role in plasma dynamics, yet it is a quantity difficult to measure accurately with physical probes, whose presence disturbs the very field they measure. The Faraday rotation of a polarized beam of light provides a mechanism to measure the magnetic field without disturbing the dynamics, and has been used with great success in astrophysics and high energy density plasma science, where physical probes cannot be used. Furthermore, the rotation is typically small, which degrades the accuracy of the measurement. Since polarization cannot be measured directly, detectors rely on a polarizer to measure a small change in beam intensity instead. In this work, we show how beam shaping can improve Faraday rotation measurements using an optical derivative setup. Since the rotation measurement is now strictly proportional to the beam shape and intensity, the system allows to improve the measurement accuracy simply by increasing the laser beam power.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insensitivity to propagation timing in a preview-enabled wind turbine control experiment

Lidar scanners are capable of taking measurements of a wind field upstream of a wind turbine. The wind turbine controller can use these measurements as a “preview” of future disturbances impacting the turbine. Such preview-enabled (or feedforward) controllers show superior performance to standard wind turbine control configurations based purely on a feedback architecture. To capitalize on the performance improvements that preview wind measurements can provide, feedforward control actions should be timed to coincide with the arrival of the wind field at the wind turbine location. However, the time of propagation of the wind field between the lidar measurement location and the wind turbine is not perfectly known. Moreover, the best time to take feedforward control action may not perfectly coincide with the true arrival time of the wind disturbance. This contribution presents results from an experiment where preview-enabled model predictive control was deployed on a fully-actuated, scaled model wind turbine operating in a wind tunnel testbed. In the study, we investigate the sensitivity of the controller performance to the assumed propagation delay using a range of wind input sequences. We find that the preview-enabled controller outperforms the feedback only case across a wide range of assumed propagation delays, demonstrating a level of robustness to the time alignment of the incoming disturbances.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Practical Event Location Estimation Algorithm for Power Transmission System Based on Triangulation and Oscillation Intensity

Event location in power systems is quite essential information for system operators to enhance control-room situational awareness capability. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop an event location estimation algorithm for transmission systems with high accuracy. With the development of wide-area measurement system (WAMS) such as FNET/GridEye, and the synchrophasor measurement devices (SMDs) such as frequency disturbance recorders (FDRs), the synchronous measurement data including frequency, voltage amplitude and phase angle can be collected and used for event location estimation. First, the phase angle and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) trajectories are respectively used for determining two sets of wave arrival time associated with each FDR. Then, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is utilized to determine the wave arrival order to select the more suitable set of wave arrival times for a given case and to perform corresponding modifications. Next, the oscillation intensity associated with each FDR is determined based on phase angle trajectories in the center of inertia (COI) coordinate system. Finally, the multiple criteria for event location estimation are represented. In conclusion, case studies and comparisons between the proposed and previous algorithms using actual and confirmed cases in U.S. power systems are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness and improvement of the proposed algorithm in practical applications.

frequency disturbance recorder (FDR)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing the Disturbed Forest for the Trees: Remote Sensing Is Underutilized to Quantify Critical Zone Response to Unprecedented Disturbance

Understanding the severity and extent of near surface critical zone (CZ) disturbances and their ecosystem response is a pressing concern in the face of increasing human and natural disturbances. Predicting disturbance severity and recovery in a changing climate requires comprehensive understanding of ecosystem feedbacks among vegetation and the surrounding environment, including climate, hydrology, geomorphology, and biogeochemistry. Field surveys and satellite remote sensing have limited ability to effectively capture the spatial and temporal variability of disturbance and CZ properties. Technological advances in remote sensing using new sensors and new platforms have improved observations of changes in vegetation canopy structure and productivity; however, integrating measures of forest disturbance from various sensing platforms is complex. By connecting the potential for remote sensing technologies to observe different CZ disturbance vectors, we show that lower severity disturbance and slower vegetation recovery are more difficult to quantify. Case studies in montane forests from the western United States highlight new opportunities, including evaluating post-disturbance forest recovery at multiple scales, shedding light on understory vegetation regrowth, detecting specific physiological responses, and refining ecohydrological modeling. Learning from regional CZ disturbance case studies, we propose future directions to synthesize fragmented findings with (a) new data analysis using new or existing sensors, (b) data fusion across multiple sensors and platforms, (c) increasing the value of ground-based observations, (d) disturbance modeling, and (e) synthesis to improve understanding of disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Use of Non‐Invasive Drone‐Based Ground‐Penetrating Radar (GPR) to Characterize Biogenic Gas Dynamics in Subtropical Peat Soils

Peat soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle as natural producers of biogenic greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and carbon dioxide) that accumulate within the soil and are released to the atmosphere. Previous studies have showed the ability of ground-based minimally-invasive geophysical methods such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to characterize carbon dynamics in peat soils. However, ground-based GPR is limited by scale of measurement and soil disturbance potentially altering gas releases during deployment. Here, we explore the potential of drone-based GPR for identification of hot spots and hot moments of gas accumulation and release in subtropical soils. Here, we collected drone-based GPR data sets across two grids (∼17,500 m 2 ) in the Everglades during January (dry season), September, and November (wet season) of 2023 to characterize peat thickness and seasonal variability of gas content. Results show that drone-based GPR is effective and efficient for: (a) capturing the temporal variation of in situ biogenic gas content in peat soils with changes between 1% and 25 % volumetric gas content over repeatable grids; (b) inferring a total peat thickness between 0.8 and 1.2 m; and (c) estimating flux releases of 63 and 135 mg CH 4 m −2 day −1 for specific locations and periods that are strikingly consistent with our coincident gas trap measurements. This work also indicates that (a) spatial distribution of gas content in the Everglades is strongly controlled by landscape morphology such as ridges and sloughs and (b) the temporal variation of gas content is seasonal with increased gas production during the wet season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10 6 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year –1 ), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year –1 ). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. In conclusion, policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-NC1 NC_Clearcut

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC1 NC_Clearcut. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC1 NC_Clearcut produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The North Carolina Clearcut site is located in a pine plantation amongst the mixed forests of the North Carolina lower coastal plain. Owned by the Weyerhaeuser Company, the plantation is managed for the purpose of commercial logging. In 2004, 70 ha of 75 year old native hardwoods was harvested. Following the clearcut, the stand was bedded and planted with loblolly pine seedlings. The only significant natural disturbances during the measurement period was a severe drought that lasted from summer of 2007 through 2008. Consequently, the 2007 total amount of precipitation was 486 mm below the 30-year norm.

Noormets, Asko↗

DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NC2 NC_Loblolly Plantation produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The North Carolina Loblolly Pine site is located in a pine plantation amongst the mixed forests of the North Carolina lower coastal plain. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries the region was logged extensively. After a series of clearcuts, the land was transformed for agricultural practices. In 1967 and 1969, 4000 ha was sold to the Weyerhauser company for agriculture, preservation, and commercial logging of loblolly pines in a series of plantations. The fifth rotation stand surrounding the tower was established in 1992. The only significant natural disturbances during the measurement period was a severe drought that spanned the entire duration of the 2007 growing season. Consequently, the 2007 total amount of precipitation was 486 mm below the 30-year norm. In the same year, the plantation was thinned and fertilized. The stand was thinned in Oct 2009. The eastern half of the site was fertilized in January 2011, and the entire site was fertilized in October 2012.

Noormets, Asko [Texas A&M University]↗

DOE OSTI2022

An underground, wireless, open-source, low-cost system for monitoring oxygen, temperature, and soil moisture

Abstract. The use of wireless sensor networks to measure soil parameters eliminates the need to remove sensors for field operations, such as tillage, thus allowing long-term measurements without multiple disturbances to soil structure. Wireless sensors also reduce above-ground cables and the risk of undesired equipment damage and potential data loss. However, implementing wireless sensor networks in field studies usually requires advanced and costly engineering knowledge. This study presents a new underground, wireless, open-source, low-cost system for monitoring soil oxygen, temperature, and soil moisture. The process of system design, assembly, programming, deployment, and power management is presented. The system can be left underground for several years without the need to change the battery. Emphasis was given on modularity so that it can be easily duplicated or changed if needed and deployed without previous engineering knowledge. Data from this type of system have a wide range of applications, including precision agriculture and high-resolution modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Convolutional Neural Networks for Event Classification on PMU Measurements

Event classification is one of the central components of automated disturbance analysis based on PMU measurements. Obtaining high-quality event labels remains a challenge for supervised learning-based classification of local and system-wide events in power grids due to its labor-intensive requirement. We present a sensitivity study considering rapidly refined, partially and fully inspected event labels that leads to evidence that hierarchical convolutional neural networks (HCNNs) outperform traditional classification models regardless of the quality of the available event labels. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that performance similar to the one obtained using entirely domain-driven labeling can be achieved as long as the involved expert does not mislabel more than ~5% of the event data captured by PMU measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of Power System Current Sensors via Playback of Electrical Disturbances

The need to accurately measure high-frequency content in power system voltage and current phenomena is increasingly becoming more of a priority. As the amount of distributed energy resources (DER) and nonlinear loads penetrating the grid increases, so do challenges associated with traditional measurement and metering applications. In this paper, three commercially-available medium-voltage-level current sensors are characterized in terms of their harmonic amplitude and phase performance against reference signals that are “played back” through the sensors through the use of an arbitrary waveform generator. It is shown that none of the three sensors studied are able to faithfully replicate all of the input signals completely, though there are advantages and disadvantages to each in terms of noise, resonance, and induced phase drift. Additionally, the Goodness-of-Fit metric, typically used for PMU model validation, is used to generate side-by-side comparisons of sensor accuracy over a small window around the events under study.

Wilson, Aaron↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of forest structural and compositional change on forest microclimates across a gradient of disturbance severity

Forest structural diversity and community composition are key in regulating forest microclimates. When disturbance affects structural diversity or composition, forest microclimates may be altered due to changes in soil temperature, soil water content, and light availability. It is unclear however which structural or compositional components, when changed or to what extent, result in microclimatic change. To address this question, we used data from a large scale, manipulative stem-girdling experiment in northern, lower Michigan—the Forest Resilience and Threshold Experiment (FoRTE). FoRTE follows a factorial design with multiple levels of disturbance severity (0, 45, 65, 85%) based on targeted reductions in gross leaf area index via stem-girdling induced mortality. These disturbance severity treatments are applied in two ways: either as top-down (largest trees are killed) or bottom-up (small to medium trees killed) treatments. We examined how multiple components of structural diversity and community composition changed as a product of disturbance severity and type, and then tested for resulting effects on forest microclimates (light availability, soil temperature, and soil water), using a multivariate, Random Forest framework. We found that measures of community composition (species richness, species evenness, and Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index) and stand structure (basal area, standard deviation of DBH, tree size diversity) declined more following disturbance than did measures of canopy cover, heterogeneity, arrangement, or height. However, when changes in each variable from pre- to post-disturbance, measured as log change, were employed in a multivariate, Random Forest regression framework, structural diversity measures of heterogeneity (rugosity, top rugosity), cover (canopy cover), and arrangement (porosity) were the most influential variables, but with differences among bottom-up and top-down treatments We found that the death of large trees from disturbance impacts soil temperature, water, and light environments more substantially and uniformly across disturbance gradients than does the death of smaller trees. Furthermore, our results have implications for both statistical and process-based modeling of forest disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗