Bloom Modeling and Prediction of the Harmful Algae Alexandrium in Bellingham Bay, WA
Bellingham, Washington is located near the American-Canadian border in the northwestern part of Washington state, and is bordered on its west side by the Lummi reservation. Between Lummi and Bellingham lies Bellingham bay, which has a history of harmful algae related closures dating back to 1978. The subject of this work is a genus of dinoflagellates: Alexandrium, within which many species have the capacity to produce a suite of toxins known as saxitoxin. These toxins bioaccumulate in bivalves, which in turn cause paralytic shellfish poisoning in marine consumers (mammals, birds, and fish), including humans. Symptoms in humans can range from tingling and numbness to difficulty or inability to breathe, resulting in death. Because of the longstanding history of shellfish gathering among Salish tribes and the fact that Washington is the leading U.S. producer of farmed bivalves, harmful algae blooms impact both native and non-native peoples living in the Salish Sea area negatively. The objective of this work is to identify factors which influence Alexandrium blooms in Bellingham Bay, as well as predict Alexandrium blooms in the future. The method of doing so involves two processes: an initial statistical modeling phase to find in situ and remote sensing observations correlated to bloom density (including, but not limited to: water temperature, chlorophyll-a, salinity, color dissolved organic matter, and discharge rate of local rivers), followed by use of that data as a training set for a recursive neural network. This predictive capacity may inform future closures, help ensure the safety of shellfish consumers, and act as a baseline for future modeling efforts in the region.