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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing a Customizable Composite Drought Index for Pakistan

Pakistan has experienced intense agricultural droughts in recent years, with the southern provinces experiencing the most severe drought conditions. These prolonged dry conditions often result in failed crop production, impacting families and communities. To reduce the impacts a drought may have on a community by identifying dry conditions, drought indices are used. A customizable composite drought index (CDI) is developed to improve the spatial and temporal understanding of historical agricultural droughts that have affected Pakistan. An in depth analysis using 9 input variables will provide information regarding the most important variables for differing locations. This framework can enhance drought monitoring and forecasting systems. The performance of the CDI will be evaluated by using production data from different crops that have significant economic value in Pakistan. These crops include wheat, rice, maize, cotton and barley. The expected relationship between the CDI and crop production would be to see production decrease when the CDI decreases, an indication that crops failed due to drought. The CDI is made more precise by evaluating only agricultural areas using the months of the growing season for each specific crop. This will allow for a custom drought index to be developed based on crop type and geographic location that only uses the most important variables, while still capturing the full extent of historical drought.

Caily Schwartz↗
NASA NTRS2020

Developing a Customized Composite Drought Index for Pakistan

Pakistan experiences frequent and intense agricultural drought, varying spatially and temporally. Prolonged dry conditions often result in failed crop production. Using multiple variables, different components of drought can be captured across a multitude of climatic zones and throughout different seasons. Developing a composite drought index (CDI), specific for each district, will provide a more complete view of agricultural drought and enhance early warning systems.

Schwartz, Caily↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing a Customized Composite Drought Index for Pakistan

This study aims to identify historical agricultural droughts between 2004-2019 using 10 geophysical variables (Table 1) and determine what variables have little importance in this identification. Satellite data products or model outputs are used for all input variables. Understanding the interactions between the data will provide information on temporal and spatial patterns of how drought is presented in irrigated and rainfed areas (Fig. 2). This knowledge will assist in creating a Customized Composite Drought Index in future work

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2013

Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.

tree die-off↗
NASA NTRS1981

Predominant periods in the time series of drought area index for the Western High Plains AD 1700 to 1962

The detection of the combined presence of the Hale magnetic sunspot cycle (22.28 years) and the lunar nodal tidal cycle (18.61 years) in both the Eastern North American January air temperatures and the Western U.S. High Plains drought series led to an extended analysis of the Drought Area Index time series. This analysis indicated that the mean dominant period of the drought series should be 20.0 to 20.5 years and that the principal period should be resolvable into two components of about 22.28 and 18.61 years. This note details the successful accomplishment of this task.

Bell, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Montana Water Resources II: Enhancing a Moisture Index for Drought and Flood Monitoring in the Missouri River Basin

The Missouri River Basin is a major global breadbasket, containing large amounts of agricultural land. Recent devastating weather events have motivated regional organizations to dedicate efforts to drought and flood monitoring and early warning systems. The DEVELOP team partnered with the following organizations: Montana Climate Office, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Missouri Basin River Forecast Center, NOAA Regional Climate Services of the Central Region, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, and the US Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. The team collaborated with the partners in their efforts to monitor flood and drought by enhancing a composite moisture index (CMI) for the Missouri River Basin. The CMI leverages NASA Earth observations to derive snow cover data from the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mission and snow water equivalent and snowdepth datasets from the NOAA NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center’s Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Building upon this framework, the team added groundwater storage data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On missions, soil moisture data from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and United States Geological Survey in situ streamflow data to the CMI. To test the tool’s validity, the team compared the CMI results to historically extreme dry and extreme wet years, March 2017 and March 2019, respectively. The CMI accurately reflects both 2017 and 2019 climate conditions in the Missouri River Basin. The refined CMI enhances the understanding of antecedent soil moisture conditions and improves flood and drought forecasting in the Missouri River Basin before the growing season.

Chloe Schneider↗
NASA NTRS2018

Developing a Remotely Sensed Drought Monitoring Indicator for Morocco

Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation data since 1981 (CHIRPS), anomalies in the day-night difference of Land Surface Temperature as a proxy for soil moisture, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Evapotranspiration anomalies from surface energy balance modeling. All of these satellite-based indices are being used to monitor vegetation condition, rainfall and land surface temperature. The weighted combination of these input parameters into one composite indicator takes into account the importance of the rainfall-based parameter (SPI). The composite drought index maps were generated during the growing seasons going back to 2003. These maps have been compared to both the historical, in situ precipitation data across Morocco and with the historical yield data across different provinces with information being available since 2000. The maps are disseminated monthly to several main stakeholders' groups including the Ministry of Agriculture and Department of Water in Morocco.

Drought monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2016

Wildfires Dynamics in Siberian Larch Forests

Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45deg-73degN) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and field measurements for the period 1996-2015. In addition, fire return interval (FRI) along the south-north transect was analyzed. Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p < 0.05). Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5) and drought index (The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) (r = 0.43). Within larch stands along the transect, wildfire frequency was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.91). Fire danger period length decreased linearly from south to north along the transect. Fire return interval increased from 80 years at 62 N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle (6633' N), and to about 300 years near the northern limit of closed forest stands (about 71+ N). That increase was negatively correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.95). Keywords: wildfires; drought index; larch stands; fire return interval; fire frequency; burned area; climate-induced trends in Siberian wildfires

wildfires↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring Trends in Air Quality During a Drought: Case Study to Improve Public Health Response to Drought Threats

Drought has been an area of distinct concern in the Pacific Northwest since the mid-2010s. Recent studies have documented a correlation between air quality and drought in the United States, which is often observed in increased aerosols including airborne particulate matter (PM). This study partnered with the Oregon Health Authority and Washington State Department of Health to evaluate trends in air quality in the Pacific Northwest during the evolution of drought conditions using aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations collected by NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. These satellite data were analyzed in conjunction with ground-based PM2.5 and PM10 data sourced from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System’s network of ground-based monitors and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index drought index. Based on recommendations by local health departments, this study examined air quality trends between 2015 and 2022 in 12 counties within Oregon and Washington that reflected diversity in population density, drought exposure, rural and urban status, and data availability from EPA AQS monitors. The findings from this study provided supplemental information to the ongoing efforts by community health stakeholders to study the public health impacts of drought and support public health responses to future drought events.

Taylor West↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate-Induced Larch Growth Response Within the Central Siberian Permafrost Zone

Aim: estimation of larch (Larix gmelinii) growth response to current climate changes. Location: permafrost area within the northern part of Central Siberia (approximately 65.8 deg N, 98.5 deg E). Method: analysis of dendrochronological data, climate variables, drought index SPEI, GPP (gross primary production) and EVI vegetation index (both Aqua/MODIS satellite derived), and soil water content anomalies (GRACE satellite measurements of equivalent water thickness anomalies, EWTA). Results: larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with previous year August precipitation (r = 0.63), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), soil water anomalies (r = 0.79), early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), May and June drought index (r = 0.68-0.82). There are significant positive trends of TRW since late 1980s and GPP since the year 2000. Mean TRW increased by about 50%, which is similar to post-Little Ice Age warming. TRW correlated with GPP and EVI of larch stands (r = 0.68-0.69). Main conclusions: within the permafrost zone of central Siberia larch TRW growth is limited by early summer temperatures, available water from snowmelt, water accumulated within soil in the previous year, and permafrost thaw water. Water stress is one of the limiting factors of larch growth. Larch TRW growth and GPP increased during recent decades.

permafrost thaw↗
NASA NTRS2022

Drought Monitoring with Drones: A Hundred Fields at a Time

Drought frequency and severity are likely to increase due to global warming. Droughts already have a substantial negative influence on agriculture and the economy and finding ways to reduce their effects could have a monumental impact. Although NASA already has satellites deployed to collect drought data, these satellites are more for global drought indexing than local. To alleviate droughts on a local level, this paper proposes the use of drones to map soil moisture, plant health, and other drought indicators. The proposed drone design is a fixed-wing UAV equipped with a hyperspectral camera, a LiDAR sensor, and an array of weather sensors. These tools will permit it to reliably capture the necessary data to enhance suggestions on improving drought management practices. The collected data from the drones will be deployable in many ways, including for agricultural and non-agricultural applications. The hyperspectral camera has applications in monitoring the health of crops within a field to direct relief measures to the crops most in need. Thermal and LiDAR imaging can be deployed for locating leaks, predicting shortages of water bodies, and determining a field’s water needs. To implement a drought-monitoring drone, the recommended steps include building a prototype drone design that is equipped with the outlined instruments. The prototype drone could then be deployed to collect training data to guide a neural network that would provide interpretations and predictions from the data for users. After the prototype design is iterated upon, it will be ready for deployment and inform water management methods to serve the world in our battle against drought.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2014

Birch Stands Growth Increase in Western Siberia

Birch (Betula pendula Roth) growth within the Western Siberia forest-steppe was analyzed based on long-term (1897-2006) inventory data (height, diameter at breast height [dbh], and stand volume). Analysis of biometry parameters showed increased growth at the beginning of twenty-first century compared to similar stands (stands age = 40-60 years) at the end of nineteenth century. Mean height, dbh, and stem volume increased from 14 to 20 m, from 16 to 22 cm, and from approx. 63 to approx. 220 cu m/ha, respectively. Significant correlations were found between the stands mean height, dbh, and volume on the one hand, and vegetation period length (r(sub s) = 0.71 to 0.74), atmospheric CO2 concentration (r(sub s) = 0.71 to 0.76), and drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, r(sub s) = −0.33 to −0.51) on the other hand. The results obtained have revealed apparent climate-induced impacts (e.g. increase of vegetation period length and birch habitat drying due to drought increase) on the stands growth. Along with this, a high correlation of birch biometric parameters and [CO2] in ambient air indicated an effect of CO2 fertilization. Meanwhile, further drought increase may switch birch stand growth into decline and greater mortality as has already been observed within the Trans-Baikal forest-steppe ecotone.

climate-induced tree growth↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Drought and Fire Conditions, Trends, and Susceptibility to Inform State Mitigation Efforts and Bolster Monitoring Protocol in North Central Idaho

Escalating severity and frequency of drought and wildfire call for effective and cost-efficient mitigation planning and monitoring protocols. The Palouse ecoregion, an agricultural epicenter in North-central Idaho, is of particular concern as both drought and wildfire present substantial economic threats. The DEVELOP team implemented Earth observation data to assist the Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Idaho Department of Water Resources, and Idaho Department of Lands in updating the state’s Hazard Mitigation Plan by enhancing their drought and fire monitoring capabilities. The team utilized Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Aqua and Terra’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), along with ancillary datasets, to assess drought indicators and map hazard susceptibility. The team upgraded the state’s current fire hazard model by updating existing data layers and adding drought indicator data to support partners’ continued assessment of fire hazard conditions. The team observed Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) spikes during the highest fire occurrence and burned area years in the study period: 2015 and 2021. Models from dry, high fire occurrence and burned area year 2015 outperformed models from mesic, low fire occurrence and burned area year 2016. The increased understanding of drought conditions and fire susceptibility in this ecosystem will assist partners in improving land management practices.

Ford Freyberg↗