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At least 19 records

Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons

Precipitation-based assessments show a lengthening of tropical dry seasons under climate change, without considering simultaneous changes in ecosystem water demand. Here, we compare changes in tropical dry season length and timing when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation is less than: its climatological average, potential evapotranspiration, or actual evapotranspiration. While all definitions show more widespread tropical drying than wetting for 1983-2016, we find the largest fraction (48.7%) of tropical land probably experiencing longer dry seasons when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation cannot meet the need of actual evapotranspiration. Southern Amazonia (due to delayed end) and central Africa (due to earlier onset and delayed end) are hotspots of dry season lengthening, with greater certainty when accounting for water demand changes. Therefore, it is necessary to account for changing water demand when characterizing changes in tropical dry periods and ecosystem water deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regime shifts of the wet and dry seasons in the tropics under global warming

The main seasonal characteristics in the tropics include both spatial patterns and temporal parameters of onset, cessation, duration, and the number of wet and dry seasons. Previous studies showed that wet seasons shortened and dry seasons extended with global warming, but the changes in spatial distribution and the number of wet and dry seasons are still unclear. Here, we analyze the climatic characteristics of once wet and dry season a year (annual regime) and twice wet and dry seasons a year (biannual regime), and find that regimes of wet and dry seasons have changed from 1935 to 2014. Across the equator and the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn, some regions where there used to be an annual regime have become a biannual regime; instead, other regions have shifted from a biannual regime into an annual regime. With seasonal regimes shifting, areas of the biannual regime have expanded at a rate of 31 000 km 2 /decade. Meanwhile, in annual regime regions, wet seasons have been shortened in 60.3% of regions, with an average of 7 d; the onset dates of wet seasons have been delayed in 64.8%, with an average of 6 d. Besides, wet seasons have become wetter in 51.1% of regions, and dry seasons have become drier in 59.9%. In biannual regime regions, the shortened wet seasons have occurred in 83.7% of regions, with an average shortening of 8 d, and precipitation has decreased in both wet and dry seasons. Moreover, the shorter wet seasons will amplify further by the end of the 21st century. The continuous seasonal changes will threaten agricultural, ecological security, and even human well-being.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of experimental and seasonal drying on soil microbial biomass and nutrient cycling in four lowland tropical forests

Changes in precipitation represent a major effect of climate change on tropical forests, which contain some of the earth’s largest terrestrial carbon (C) stocks. Such changes are expected to influence microbes, nutrients, and the fate of C in tropical forest soils. To explore this, we assessed soil microbial biomass, potential extracellular enzyme activities, and nutrient availability in a partial throughfall exclusion experiment in four seasonal lowland tropical humid forests in Panama with wide variation in precipitation and soil fertility. We hypothesized that throughfall exclusion would reduce microbial biomass and activity and accentuate dry season soil nutrient accumulation, with larger effects in wetter, less droughtresistant forests. We observed a baseline seasonal pattern of decreased microbial biomass and increased extractable dissolved organic C (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), nitrate (NO 3 – ), and resinextractable phosphorus (P) in the dry season, with the strongest patterns for nitrogen (N). However, potential enzyme activities showed no consistent seasonality. In line with seasonal drying, throughfall exclusion decreased soil microbial biomass in the wet season and increased TDN and NO 3 – , especially in the dry season. In contrast to seasonal drying, throughfall exclusion decreased DOC and did not affect resinextractable P, but slightly decreased potential phosphatase activities. Potential enzyme activities varied among sites and sampling times, but did not explain much variation in microbial biomass or substrate availability. We conclude that reduced rainfall in tropical forests might accentuate some dry season patterns, like reductions in microbial biomass and accumulation of extractable nutrients. However, our data also suggest new patterns, like reduced inputs of DOC to soils with drying, which could have cascading effects on soil ecological function and C storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plant functional types broadly describe water use strategies in the Caatinga, a seasonally dry tropical forest in northeast Brazil

In seasonally dry tropical forests, plant functional type can be classified as deciduous low wood density, deciduous high wood density, or evergreen high wood density species. While deciduousness is often associated with drought-avoidance and low wood density is often associated with tissue water storage, the degree to which these functional types may correspond to diverging and unique water use strategies has not been extensively tested. We examined (a) tolerance to water stress, measured by predawn and mid-day leaf water potential; (b) water use efficiency, measured via foliar δ 13 C; and (c) access to soil water, measured via stem water δ 18 O. We found that deciduous low wood density species maintain high leaf water potential and low water use efficiency. Deciduous high wood density species have lower leaf water potential and variable water use efficiency. Both groups rely on shallow soil water. Evergreen high wood density species have low leaf water potential, higher water use efficiency, and access alternative water sources. These findings indicate that deciduous low wood density species are drought avoiders, with a specialized strategy for storing root and stem water. Deciduous high wood density species are moderately drought tolerant, and evergreen high wood density species are the most drought tolerant group. Our results broadly support the plant functional type framework as a way to understand water use strategies, but also highlight species-level differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metagenomes from Eastern Brazilian Amazonian floodplains in the wet and dry seasons

Brief sample description Sediment samples from 0 to 10 cm depth were collected in triplicate from two floodplains of the Eastern Brazilian Amazon, one located on the Amazonas River (FP2, 2°28'11.2"S 54°38'49.9"W) and the other at the intersection between the Amazonas and the Tapajós rivers (FP3, 2°22'44.8"S 54°44'21.1"W), in the wet and dry seasons (May and October 2016, respectively). Total DNA was extracted in duplicate from 0.25 g of sediment using PowerLyzer PowerSoil DNA Isolation Kit. The metagenomic libraries were constructed using NEBNext Ultra II DNA Library Prep Kit for Illumina and paired-end sequenced (2 x 150 bp) on an Illumina HiSeq 2500 platform. Detailed information about the study sites, sampling, sediment physicochemical properties, DNA extraction and quantification have been previously described by Gontijo et al. (2021). Sample IDs: M1, M2 and M3: FP2, wet season M4, M5 and M6: FP3, wet season M7, M8 and M9: FP2, dry season M10, M11 and M12: FP3, dry season

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A thermal-driven graupel generation process to explain dry-season convective vigor over the Amazon

Large-eddy simulations (LESs) are conducted for each day of the intensive observation periods (IOPs) of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign to characterize the updrafts and microphysics within deep convective cores while contrasting those properties between Amazon wet and dry seasons. Mean Doppler velocity (V dop ) values simulated using LESs are compared with 2-year measurements from a radar wind profiler (RWP) as viewed by statistical composites separated according to wet- and dry-season conditions. In the observed RWP and simulated LES V dop composites, we find more intense low-level updraft velocity, vigorous graupel generation, and intense surface rain during the dry periods compared with the wet periods. To investigate coupled updraft–microphysical processes further, single-day golden cases are selected from the wet and dry periods to conduct detailed cumulus thermal tracking analysis. Tracking analysis reveals that simulated dry-season environments generate more droplet-loaded low-level thermals than wet-season environments. This tendency correlates with seasonal contrasts in buoyancy and vertical moisture advection profiles in large-scale forcing. Employing a normalized time series of mean thermal microphysics, the simulated cumulus thermals appear to be the primary generator of cloud droplets. When subsequent thermals penetrate the ice crystal layer, droplets within the thermals interact with entrained ice crystals, which enhances riming in the thermals. This appears to be a production pathway of graupel/hail particles within simulated deep convective cores. In addition, less-diluted dry-case thermals tend to be elevated higher, and graupel grows further during sedimentation after spilling out from thermals. Therefore, greater concentrations of low-level moist thermals likely result in more graupel/hail production and associated dry-season convective vigor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-scale integration of satellite remote sensing improves characterization of dry-season green-up in an Amazon tropical evergreen forest

In tropical forests, leaf phenology-particularly the pronounced dry-season green-up-strongly regulates biogeochemical cycles of carbon and water fluxes. However, uncertainties remain in the understanding of tropical forest leaf phenology at different spatial scales. Phenocams accurately characterize leaf phenology at the crown and ecosystem scales but are limited to a few sites and time spans of a few years. Time-series satellite observations might fill this gap, but the commonly used satellites (e.g. MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel-2) have resolutions too coarse to characterize single crowns. To resolve this observational challenge, we used the PlanetScope constellation with a 3m resolution and near daily nadir-view coverage. We first developed a rigorous method to cross-calibrate PlanetScope surface reflectance using daily BRDF-adjusted MODIS as the reference. We then used linear spectral unmixing of calibrated PlanetScope to obtain dry-season change in the fractional cover of green vegetation (GV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) at the PlanetScope pixel level. We used the Central Amazon Tapajos National Forest k67 site, as all necessary data (from field to phenocam and satellite observations) was available. For this proof of concept, we chose a set of 22 dates of PlanetScope measurements in 2018 and 16 in 2019, all from the six drier months of the year to provide the highest possible cloud-free temporal resolution. Our results show that MODIS-calibrated dry-season PlanetScope data (1) accurately assessed seasonal changes in ecosystem-scale and crown-scale spectral reflectance; (2) detected an increase in ecosystem-scale GV fraction (and a decrease in NPV fraction) from June to November of both years, consistent with local phenocam observations with R 2 around 0.8; and (3) monitored large seasonal trend variability in crown-scale NPV fraction. Finally, our results highlight the potential of integrating multi-scale satellite observations to extend fine-scale leaf phenology monitoring beyond the spatial limits of phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Morning boundary layer conditions for shallow to deep convective cloud evolution during the dry season in the central Amazon

Observations of the boundary layer (BL) processes are analyzed statistically for dry seasons of 2 years and in detail, as case studies, for 4 shallow convective days (ShCu) and 4 shallow-to-deep convective days (ShDeep) using a suite of ground-based measurements from the Observation and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/5) Experiment. The BL stages in ShDeep days, from the nighttime to the cloudy mixing layer stage, are then described in comparison with ShCu days. Atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics, environmental profiles, and surface turbulent fluxes were employed to compare these two distinct situations for each stage of the BL evolution. Particular attention is given to the morning transition stage, in which the BL changes from stable to unstable conditions in the early morning hours. Results show that the decrease in time duration of the morning transition on ShDeep days is associated with high humidity and well-established vertical wind shear patterns. Higher humidity since nighttime not only contributes to lowering the cloud base during the rapid growth of the BL but also contributes to the balance between radiative cooling and turbulent mixing during nighttime, resulting in higher sensible heat flux in the early morning. The sensible heat flux promotes rapid growth of the well-mixed layer, thus favoring the deeper BL starting from around 08:00 LST (UTC-4 h). Under these conditions, the time duration of morning transition is used to promote convection, having an important effect on the convective BL strength and leading to the formation of shallow cumulus clouds and their subsequent evolution into deep convective clouds. Statistical analysis was used to validate the conceptual model obtained from the case studies. Despite the case-to-case variability, the statistical analyses of the processes in the BL show that the described processes are very representative of cloud evolution during the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dry Season Transpiration and Soil Water Dynamics in the Central Amazon

With current observations and future projections of more intense and frequent droughts in the tropics, understanding the impact that extensive dry periods may have on tree and ecosystem-level transpiration and concurrent carbon uptake has become increasingly important. Here, we investigate paired soil and tree water extraction dynamics in an old-growth upland forest in central Amazonia during the 2018 dry season. Tree water use was assessed via radial patterns of sap flow in eight dominant canopy trees, each a different species with a range in diameter, height, and wood density. Paired multi-sensor soil moisture probes used to quantify volumetric water content dynamics and soil water extraction within the upper 100 cm were installed adjacent to six of those trees. To link depth-specific water extraction patterns to root distribution, fine root biomass was assessed through the soil profile to 235 cm. To scale tree water use to the plot level (stand transpiration), basal area was measured for all trees within a 5 m radius around each soil moisture probe. The sensitivity of tree transpiration to reduced precipitation varied by tree, with some increasing and some decreasing in water use during the dry period. Tree-level water use scaled with sapwood area, from 11 to 190 L per day. Stand level water use, based on multiple plots encompassing sap flow and adjacent trees, varied from ∼1.7 to 3.3 mm per day, increasing linearly with plot basal area. Soil water extraction was dependent on root biomass, which was dense at the surface (i.e., 45% in the upper 5 cm) and declined dramatically with depth. As the dry season progressed and the upper soil dried, soil water extraction shifted to deeper levels and model projections suggest that much of the water used during the month-long dry-down could be extracted from the upper 2–3 m. Results indicate variation in rates of soil water extraction across the research area and, temporally, through the soil profile. These results provide key information on whole-tree contributions to transpiration by canopy trees as water availability changes. In addition, information on simultaneous stand level dynamics of soil water extraction that can inform mechanistic models that project tropical forest response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Above-ground net primary productivity in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forest: Contributions of rainfall, forest age and soil

Identifying factors controlling forest productivity is critical to understanding forest-climate change feedbacks, modelling vegetation dynamics and carbon finance schemes. However, little research has focused on productivity in regenerating tropical forests which are expanding in their fraction of global area have an order of magnitude larger carbon uptake rates relative to older forest. Here We examined above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components (wood production and litterfall) over 10 years in forest plots that vary in successional age, soil characteristics and species composition using band dendrometers and litterfall traps in regenerating seasonally dry tropical forests in northwestern Costa Rica. We show that the components of ANPP are differentially driven by age and annual rainfall and that local soil variation is important. Total ANPP was explained by a combination of age, annual rainfall and soil variation. Wood production comprised 35% of ANPP on average across sites and years, and was explained by annual rainfall but not forest age. Conversely, litterfall increased with forest age and soil fertility yet was not affected by annual rainfall. In this region, edaphic variability is highly correlated with plant community composition. Thus, variation in ecosystem processes explained by soil may also be partially explained by species composition. These results suggest that future changes in annual rainfall can alter the secondary forest carbon sink, but this effect will be buffered by the litterfall flux which varies little among years. In determining the long-term strength of the secondary forest carbon sink, both rainfall and forest age will be critical variables to track. We also conclude that detailed understanding of local site variation in soils and plant community may be required to accurately predict the impact of changing rainfall on forest carbon uptake. Synthesis. We show that in seasonally dry tropical forest, annual rainfall has a positive relationship with the growth of above-ground woody tissues of trees and that droughts lead to significant reductions in above-ground productivity. These results provide evidence for climate change—carbon cycle feedbacks in the seasonal tropics and highlight the value of longitudinal data on forest regeneration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Warming Alters Nutrient Storage in Seasonally Dry Forests: Insights From a 2,300 m Elevation Gradient

Understanding potential response of forest carbon (C) and nutrient storage to warming is important for climate mitigation policies. Unfortunately, those responses are difficult to predict in seasonally dry forests, in part, because ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to both changes in temperature and precipitation. We investigated how warming might alter stocks of C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in vegetation and the entire regolith (soil + weathered bedrock or “saprock”) using a space-for-time substitution along a bioclimatic gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California. The pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests between 1,160–2,015 m elevation have more optimal climates (not too dry or hot) for ecosystem productivity, soil weathering, and cycling of essential elements than the oak savannah (405 m) and subalpine forest (2,700 m). We found decreases in overstory vegetation nutrient stocks with decreasing elevation because of enhanced water limitation and greater occurrence of disturbances. Stocks of C, N, and P in the entire regolith peaked at the pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests across the bioclimatic gradient, driven by thicker regolith profiles and greater nutrient input rates. These observations suggest long-term warming will decrease ecosystem nutrient storage at the warmer, transitional pine-oak zone, but will increase nutrient storage at the colder, subalpine zone. Assuming steady-state conditions, we found the mean residence time of ecosystem C decreased with projected rising air temperatures and increased following a major drought event across the bioclimatic gradient. Our study emphasizes potentially elevation-dependent changes in nutrient storage and C persistence with warming in seasonally dry forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lianas and Trees From a Seasonally Dry and a Wet Tropical Forest Did Not Differ in Embolism Resistance but Did Differ in Xylem Anatomical Traits in the Dry Forest

One of the most prominent changes in neotropical forests has been the increase in abundance and size of lianas. Studies suggest that lianas have more acquisitive strategies than trees, which could allow them to take advantage of water more effectively when it is available in water-limited forests, but few studies compared across growth form (i.e., lianas vs. trees) and forest type (i.e., wet vs. seasonally dry). We measured hydraulic and anatomical traits of co-occurring lianas and trees that convey drought resistance (xylem embolism resistance and intervessel pit membranes) and water transport capacity (xylem vessel diameter and density) in a seasonally dry and a wet evergreen tropical forest to address: (1) Are there differences between vulnerability to embolisms (P 50 —water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) and hydraulic safety margins (HSM) across growth form and forest type? (2) How do vessel diameter and density vary across growth form and forest type? (3) Are there differences in xylem intervessel pit membrane thickness across growth form and forest type and does it predict xylem embolism vulnerability in trees and lianas? We examined hydraulic and xylem anatomical traits of 32 species—eight lianas and eight trees in each forest type. We found no difference in P 50 and HSMs between lianas and trees and between the wetter and drier forest. Dry forest lianas had 81% greater maximum vessel diameter and 125% greater range in vessel diameter sizes than dry forest trees but, there was no significant difference between life forms in the wet forest. Dry forest species had 50% greater vessel density and 30% greater maximum pit membrane thickness than wet forest ones. Maximum pit membrane thickness was correlated to P 50 and HSMs. The main difference between lianas and trees occurred in the dry forest, where lianas had larger maximum xylem vessel size than trees, implying that they have proportionally greater hydraulic conductive capacity than the trees in seasonal forests.

Smith-Martin, Chris M.↗

Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change

Human-induced climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and thus the availability of water resources. However, previous assessments of observed warming-induced changes in dryness have not excluded natural climate variability and show conflicting results due to uncertainties in our understanding of the response of evapotranspiration. Here in this paper, we employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1°C. Our analysis reveals a spatial pattern of changes in average water availability during the driest month of the year over the past three decades compared with the first half of the twentieth century, with some regions experiencing increased and some decreased water availability. The global pattern is consistent with climate model estimates that account for anthropogenic effects, and it is not expected from natural climate variability, supporting human-induced climate change as the cause. There is regional evidence of drier dry seasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes and including Europe, western North America, northern Asia, southern South America, Australia and eastern Africa. We also find that the intensification of the dry season is generally a consequence of increasing evapotranspiration rather than decreasing precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What drives daily precipitation over the central Amazon? Differences observed between wet and dry seasons

This study offers an alternative presentation regarding how diurnal precipitation is modulated by convective events that developed over the central Amazon during the preceding nighttime period. We use data collected during the Observations and Modelling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/2015) field campaign that took place from 1 January 2014 to 30 November 2015 in the central Amazon. Local surface-based observations of cloud occurrence, soil temperature, surface fluxes, and planetary boundary layer characteristics are coupled with satellite data to identify the physical mechanisms that control the diurnal rainfall in central Amazon during the wet and dry seasons. This is accomplished through evaluation of the atmospheric properties during the nocturnal periods preceding raining and non-raining events. Comparisons between these non-raining and raining transitions are presented for the wet (January to April) and dry (June to September) seasons. The results suggest that wet-season diurnal precipitation is modulated by nighttime cloud coverage and local influences such as heating induced turbulence, whereas the dry-season rain events are controlled by large-scale circulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing Liana Abundance and Associated Reductions in Tree Growth in Secondary Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

Lianas are thought to be increasing and altering tree growth and ecosystem productivity in tropical forests, but less research has focused on secondary or seasonally dry tropical forest. We report on an 11-year study of tree growth and liana presence from Guanacaste, Costa Rica, where we measured the diameter growth and liana presence on more than 1,700 trees in regenerating forest of different ages. We find that the proportion of trees without lianas is decreasing and the number of trees with lianas occupying more than 10% of tree’s crowns is increasing. We also find that lianas are affecting the diameter growth of trees. The 11-year average relative growth rates of trees with lianas in more than 10% of the tree’s crown are lower than the relative growth of trees with no lianas or lianas in less than 10% of their crown. Year-to-year, tree relative growth rate is related to annual precipitation and tree diameter. However, trees that were heavily infested with lianas (i.e., with lianas in more than 50% of their crowns) had lower relative growth and a weaker precipitation-growth relationship. This work underscores the value of long-term longitudinal data in secondary forest and adds critical data on dry forest liana abundance change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extrapolating carbon dynamics of seasonally dry tropical forests across geographic scales and into future climates: improving simulation models with empirical observations. Final report

This research focused on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), a biome that exhibits strong variation in ecological, hydrological and physical characteristics. Climate change is expected to strongly impact the atmospheric environment of SDTFs, and long-term trends in precipitation seasonality have already been detected. The extent to which such changes in seasonal moisture availability will impact SDTF carbon dynamics is highly uncertain, and much of this uncertainty hinges on poorly-understood belowground processes. Thus, the central objectives of this research were to qualitatively and quantitatively describe how belowground processes mediate the response of SDTF carbon dynamics to environmental change. We accomplished these aims through field campaigns in four tropical countries to characterize soil biogeochemistry and plant hydraulic traits, ecosystem-scale field experiments that manipulated both nutrients and rainfall, and simulation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A subset of viruses thrives following microbial resuscitation during rewetting of a seasonally dry California grassland soil

Viruses are abundant, ubiquitous members of soil communities that kill microbial cells, but how they respond to perturbation of soil ecosystems is essentially unknown. Here, we investigate lineage-specific virus-host dynamics in grassland soil following “wet-up”, when resident microbes are both resuscitated and lysed after a prolonged dry period. Quantitative isotope tracing, time-resolved metagenomics and viromic analyses indicate that dry soil holds a diverse but low biomass reservoir of virions, of which only a subset thrives following wet-up. Viral richness decreases by 50% within 24 h post wet-up, while viral biomass increases four-fold within one week. Though recent hypotheses suggest lysogeny predominates in soil, our evidence indicates that viruses in lytic cycles dominate the response to wet-up. We estimate that viruses drive a measurable and continuous rate of cell lysis, with up to 46% of microbial death driven by viral lysis one week following wet-up. Thus, viruses contribute to turnover of soil microbial biomass and the widely reported CO 2 efflux following wet-up of seasonally dry soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Causes of Wet-Season Dry Biases Over Amazonia in CAM5

This study investigates the causes of pronounced low precipitation bias over Amazonia in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), a common feature in many global climate models. Our analysis is based on a suite of 3-day long hindcasts starting every day at 00Z from 1997 to 2012 and an AMIP simulation for the same period. The Amazonia dry bias appears by the second day in the hindcasts and is very robust for all the seasons with the largest bias magnitude during the wet season (December–February). The bias pattern and magnitude do not change much during different dynamical wind regimes on sub-seasonal time scales. We further classify the diurnal cycle of precipitation near the LBA sites from observations and hindcasts into three convective regimes: no precipitation, late afternoon deep convection, and nighttime deep convection. CAM5 can only simulate the late afternoon convective regime and completely fails to simulate the nighttime convection, which is mostly from propagating convective systems originating from remote locations. CAM5 mainly underestimates precipitation in the late afternoon and nighttime convective regimes, which occur during ~67% of wet season days and account for ~75% of accumulated precipitation amount in observations. The persistent warm temperature bias and slightly higher moisture below 850 mb likely trigger deep convection too frequently, resulting in an earlier but weaker rainfall peak in the diurnal cycle. Finally, shallow convection may not effectively transport moisture from boundary layer to the free atmosphere, which also leads to weaker deep convection events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗